Tyler Dunne on the Direction of the Bills' Offense

[The Big Cat]

ridicule? No way. The season rests on him regardless of the D. Except in some outlying cases, you are what your QB says you are. They can run the ball all they want but without the threat of a consistently successful passing game to balance things out, it won't lead them to the playoffs

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

[boyst]

Taylor throws for over 2500 yards we will win at least 9 games. Throws over 3000 I worry not so much

[The Big Cat]

A few things that would go a long way to making our offense run better.

 

1 - Fewer dumb trick plays. Implement a couple, but a lot of them were drive killers last year. Lose 5 here, 9 there. Thats the end of that drive.

2 - When passing on 1st down, more stuff over the middle. More quick passes. And more pocket movement from TT. This is more on Roman I think. We started to see more of it as the year went on.

3 - When its third down, and you can see the open path to the 1st down sticks. TAKE THE 1ST DOWN! Throwing a 40 yard ball to Chris Hogan when he's open doesnt matter when hes Chris Hogan. I don't care if it hit him in the hands, the smart move is to get the first down. Every point is important. I'm remembering a specific one - but he did that quite a few times. Sometimes it was a receiver coming across that he should throw to, etc. But keeping us moving is huge.

 

Good post. There's no shame in Brady-esque small ball. Take every last yard the defense gives you and eventually the points start piling up.

[boyst]

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

if this were Fitzpatrick it might be different. We would know we can't rely on him. So why is Taylor the focus? If the d struggles to get up facing tough teams of men than that play better than we are going to not be able to keep up no matter how good he plays.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

 

Good post. There's no shame in Brady-esque small ball. Take every last yard the defense gives you and eventually the points start piling up.

 

Took russell wilson a few years to figure out when to just trot out the 8 yard first down and go back to the line for 3 more tries. I'm not 100% sold on TT, but he does leave me with a feeling that we might have found the guy.

[The Big Cat]

if this were Fitzpatrick it might be different. We would know we can't rely on him. So why is Taylor the focus? If the d struggles to get up facing tough teams of men than that play better than we are going to not be able to keep up no matter how good he plays.

 

??

 

Are you saying the defense won't win in a shoot out?

 

That's a bizarre way of putting it.

[The Jokeman]

Except going with TT was a reach also as it is with making any change to your teams QB. Fact is you can't run the ball with a crap QB. Tyrod is one of the reasons we run the ball well - and not just because he himself runs.

TT run totals inflate our rushing totals. TT is going to have to improve as s passer for us to take the next step. As right now I classify as a bottom 3rd QB as a passer. If he canove to a middle of pack guy and our defense can become better at stopping the run then we're easily a playoff team. As to me is continually building the defense and hoping to hit on a good enough QB that won't break the bank but seems to have enough forethought to put us in cap jail. The Bengals to me a model of what we trying to become and to a lesser extent the Chiefs.

[The Big Cat]

Lol. Yes post your heat maps again. Aka your statistics to fit your agenda.

 

How teams finished against Buffalo relative to their other 14/15 opponents was hardly skewed data.

[MDH]

Lol. Yes post your heat maps again. Aka your statistics to fit your agenda.

 

You mean the data to support his position? Isn't that what one is supposed to do when in a discussion with differing viewpoints?

 

I haven't seen his heat maps and don't agree it's "more on the offense" than the D (it's equally on them both) but I wish more people supported their positions with something other than "trust me."

[The Big Cat]

 

You mean the data to support his position? Isn't that what one is supposed to do when in a discussion with differing viewpoints?

 

I haven't seen his heat maps and don't agree it's "more on the offense" than the D (it's equally on them both) but I wish more people supported their positions with something other than "trust me."

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

[MDH]

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

 

Thanks for the stats.

 

I don't look at those and think "the offense is primarily to blame" though. Looks pretty evenly split. I do, however, look at that KC game - which was the most pivotal game of the season - and think, "the D laid a giant egg on the season" because of their performance in that game.

Edited May 10, 2016 by MDH

[The Big Cat]

 

Thanks for the stats.

 

I don't look at those and think "the offense is primarily to blame" though. Looks pretty evenly split. I do, however, look at that KC game - which was the most pivotal game of the season - and think, "the D laid a giant egg on the season" because of their performance in that game.

Three weird things happened that day: AS finally and for the last time throwing the ball downfield, injuries up the middle that turned the run D into the Lincoln Tunnel and TT inexplicably not targeting SW after the two of them torched KC in the first half.

[3rdand12]

 

I totally agree. But when I floated this very notion back in March (probably), very vocal swaths quite fervently did not.

I would be pleased to ridicule you

[FireChan]

 

I believe these are the most updated ones:

 

 

the percentages are relative to how that week's opponents' season averages, minus the bills games

How does this prove the offense lost us more games than the defense again?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills offense performed at a high level in 8 of the 16 games, while the defense only had 3 great games?

 

Doesn't the heat map show the Bills defense had more terrible categories than the Bills offense?

 

Doesn't the heat map show we lost 4 games when the defense was below average, and only lost 3 when the offense was below average?

Edited May 10, 2016 by FireChan

[boyst]

 

??

 

Are you saying the defense won't win in a shoot out?

 

That's a bizarre way of putting it.

when the defense gets its ass kicked in the second half after failed adjustments by the Ryan D then yes, the other team will be our d.

 

It happened in many games in 2015. Our d our faltered when it was time to buckle up

[GunnerBill]

 

If he expects to be paid in that range then it's not unreasonable to expect that level of play.

 

But you have to factor in his rushing yards as well. You can't judge whether Tyrod is a top 15 QB by the same metric as say, Matt Ryan. His ability to make plays with his legs is an important part of what he is. Same as Wilson before he signed his deal had he ever been in the top 10 or 15 for passing yards in a season? You have to look at the whole package.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

But you have to factor in his rushing yards as well. You can't judge whether Tyrod is a top 15 QB by the same metric as say, Matt Ryan. His ability to make plays with his legs is an important part of what he is. Same as Wilson before he signed his deal had he ever been in the top 10 or 15 for passing yards in a season? You have to look at the whole package.

 

Fair points to consider. But two things that I'm specifically looking for him to do a better job of are sustaining offensive drives with 3rd down conversions via better decision making and coming through in late game situations with better performances that lead the team to victory.

[GunnerBill]

 

Fair points to consider. But two things that I'm specifically looking for him to do a better job of are sustaining offensive drives with 3rd down conversions via better decision making and coming through in late game situations with better performances that lead the team to victory.

 

Of course. I think we all want to see that. It is just we need to not hold passing yards as the be all and end all metric when measuring him. Have to look at the full picture.

How does this prove the offense lost us more games than the defense again?

 

 

Because they are created for the purpose of confirmation bias.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

Of course. I think we all want to see that. It is just we need to not hold passing yards as the be all and end all metric when measuring him. Have to look at the full picture.

 

Never said it was the end all and as a matter of fact I mentioned nothing about passing yards in the post that you initially quoted. Do what it takes to win games is the right measuring stick as far as I'm concerned. Statistics be damned.

Edited May 11, 2016 by 26CornerBlitz

[White Linen]

TT run totals inflate our rushing totals. TT is going to have to improve as s passer for us to take the next step. As right now I classify as a bottom 3rd QB as a passer. If he canove to a middle of pack guy and our defense can become better at stopping the run then we're easily a playoff team. As to me is continually building the defense and hoping to hit on a good enough QB that won't break the bank but seems to have enough forethought to put us in cap jail. The Bengals to me a model of what we trying to become and to a lesser extent the Chiefs.

 

So TT doesn't help our run game - but only inflates the perception that we run well? No.