4merper4mer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 For the sake of this discussion I'll start with the assumption that grave spitter Hillary will square of against one of the three leading GOP dudes. Bernie, Carson, and Doofus will be ignored.For the initial post I will put on the hat of a democratic strategist, a member of the mainstream press.....yes there is a slight difference, and a republican strategist. Hillary vs. Trump: A democratic strategist's dream. He may be the only candidate she can beat if people really gave a lot of thought to their vote and that is even questionable. Fortunately for the demo, the notion of people giving thought to their vote is laughable. I think the GOP voters are currently giving some, but not enough thought to their vote. They are angry and Trump is a reflection of that. They have a right to be angry as Republicans have lied to them in the last to major Senate elections. IMO they don't look deep enough at Trump to see he is not who he plays on TV. They are ok for now with saying screw you to the establishment and the blunt, crass language is tolerable and even fun for some. The demo will try to pick this apart and make Trump Mitt Romney but really mean. Hillary will have the woman card, the victim card, and the champion of all victims card. It is enough to barf but it is right there in front of them. I don't know what to say about the press in a race like this that isn't obvious. Total feeding frenzy. I'd say enjoy it because it will be fun. Regardless of the result the country's odds of moving in the right direction over the next four year's are very low. Republican strategists will have no choice but too ride the populist wave to try to win the election. They will be paying penance for establishment practices going back a decade or more. They won't really have their hearts in it or at least a lot of them won't. Megan Kelly will announce she is a democrat/commie now. I think Trump has a real chance to win because people are mad at the dems too. Hillary is a really bad candidate. Trump's people should say "I got rid of the phony republicans, now it is the demo turn". That might work. 60/40 in Trump's favor if he doesn't have some giant skeleton in his closet or say something irreversibly stupid. So that nets out to 70/30 for the grave spitter. Hillary vs. Cruz: Dems strategists will say as little about Hillary as possible and paint horns on Cruz. It will be a non-stop set of comparisons to serial killers, TV villains and Hitler. A complete barrage. It will be actually interesting to see if this works. The press we be divided in the normal Fox + talk radio vs. the world although Fox will be mild and talk radio will be amplified. It will be like a tennis match and it won't be an amicable race. Republicans would have an interesting choice. Get behind Cruz 100%, fully expose Hillary and he grave spitting tactics or try to finesse it. Establishment republicans like McConnell and crew probably align half way in between Cruz, and Hillary's political and economic philosophy. It is hard to imagine them getting fully behind Cruz but also hard to see them just letting Hillary waltz in. Specific endorsements could really help Cruz. Overall this would be the most interesting election in a generation. I see it as 50/50. That said, we'd know the winner early on and it would be determined by the republican establishments desire or lack of to help Cruz. Hillary vs. Lazio: Yes Lazio. For sure if I'm a dem strategist. Remember her first Senate run's opponent? Pretty boy? check. Lightweight? check. Blows with the wind on policy? check. Easily rattled? check. Can be accused of things he didn't do because they'll seem true and he can't effectively fight back? Check. Five letter last name ending in "io"? Check The press has been repeating that Lazio has the best chance against Hillary and trying to help the dems by getting him as the candidate. If he gets the nomination that will turn on a dime. Too young, not enough experience, who is he really?, blah , blah, blah. The moronic establishment of the R's will be 100% behind him and flail even more than they did with McCain and Romney. Ok maybe equal to McCain. Fox will try to help. Talk radio will be all anti-Hillary and unable to find any pro-Lazio narratives. This race is 95/5 in favor of grave spitter and I'm being nice to Lazio with those odds. I'm right about all of this and if the race could be run 20 times with each candidate you'd all see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Figure out why the republicans are having record turnouts in the primaries while the democrats are having weak turnout. If that trend continues the candidate causing that will be the ultimate winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Figure out why the republicans are having record turnouts in the primaries while the democrats are having weak turnout. If that trend continues the candidate causing that will be the ultimate winner. As I said, 60/40 if the inevitable relentless media attack cannot make something stick. 10/90 if they can. In other words 70/30 in favor of the grave spitter. Just a simple example is described in this link. Do you think it will be the only one? including the aforementioned 90-year-old and Michael Forbes, a farmer who refused to sell his land to Trump. The billionaire later called Forbes "an embarrassment to Scotland" who "lives like a pig." I haven't even gotten into what he'd do if he got in and that's really not for this thread. Can I envision a scenario where the populism works? Yes. Can I envision a scenario where he ends up getting an overwhelmingly dem congress elected in 2108 and a 2020 Prez that makes Barry look like a capitalist? What do you think? And is about 100 time more likely than the rosy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 From the deepest dark dank depths of Hooverville came light... In my best Newt voice parody: "Roll, Baby ROLL!" Roll that clock back... We're gonna party like it's 1929! I smell blood in the water... Don't you just love the fear mongering? It's nothing, this won't hurt a bit. Ah, foog it: "Hold on, hold on to yourself For this is gonna hurt like hell" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would say we would have a chance in this election of Hillary vs Trump of seeing the largest election victory of all time. I could see Hillary getting over 60%. Not saying it will happen, but there is a better possibility in this election than in any other in recent memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would say we would have a chance in this election of Hillary vs Trump of seeing the largest election victory of all time. I could see Hillary getting over 60%. Not saying it will happen, but there is a better possibility in this election than in any other in recent memory Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Based on what? Go play in traffic you minion parasite. You don't get to ask questions after the hate campaign you ran against me you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Go play in traffic you minion parasite. You don't get to ask questions after the hate campaign you ran against me you nothing. "Hate campaign"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 "Hate campaign"... Yes, you minion parasite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yes, you minion parasite. I still love how that's something in his mind I've admitted to being, which is of course completely false and yet he keeps using it. Proving once again he has indeed taken one too many pucks to the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Go play in traffic you minion parasite. You don't get to ask questions after the hate campaign you ran against me you nothing. Maybe if you log in as ...lybob, he'll be nicer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I still love how that's something in his mind I've admitted to being, which is of course completely false and yet he keeps using it. Proving once again he has indeed taken one too many pucks to the head. Or one too few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 I would say we would have a chance in this election of Hillary vs Trump of seeing the largest election victory of all time. I could see Hillary getting over 60%. Not saying it will happen, but there is a better possibility in this election than in any other in recent memory I don't think the anti-Trump sentiment will be that strong and no way is the pro-grave spitter sentiment strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Well Trump has the KKK vote....so there is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Based on what? Based on TheDonald letting his misogynist views leak in a general election. Not so much a problem amongst hardcore registeted Repubs... BUT in a general TheHill may garner a lot of sympathy when that woman voter closes the curtain behind her. She ain't (like that needs to be said) no knock out Meg Kelly that will flummux him like a high school boy.. He attacks Hillary's looks/gender he might be dead in the water... IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I don't think the anti-Trump sentiment will be that strong and no way is the pro-grave spitter sentiment strong enough.I think most sensible people see Trump as a clown. Half of his own party thinks he is a wacko. No way in hell is Hillary anywhere near as hated. She's not a great candidate, but she doesn't need to be to have a landslide against Trump. I can't decide if it's even a good idea for her to debate him. She could just say she won't share the stage with someone that won't disavow the KKK. The KKK is now an issue in this election! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 I think most sensible people see Trump as a clown. Half of his own party thinks he is a wacko. No way in hell is Hillary anywhere near as hated. She's not a great candidate, but she doesn't need to be to have a landslide against Trump. I can't decide if it's even a good idea for her to debate him. She could just say she won't share the stage with someone that won't disavow the KKK. The KKK is now an issue in this election! Wow He could say he won't debate someone who spits on the graves of heroes. Trump said he didn't know whonDuke was. Although he should know it is believable that he didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I understand it's the information age and all, but this guy just keeps getting more outrageous by the minute http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/trump-retweets-quote-by-italian-fascist-mussolini/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Trump is no Romney. When Romney was unfairly attacked for such things as causing a woman to die from cancer, not paying taxes, having a horse and putting a dog in a cage on top of the family station wagon he could have used The Donald as an advisor. Trump can do just about anything and it doesn't stick because he sticks his middle finger at the media and everyone laughs at them first. The thing is, the public is really pissed at the state of our government. They are also appalled at "Happy Holidays" vs. "Merry Christmas" and all of the rest of the political correctness crap jammed down our throats. Trump is resonating to a large segment of our population and it is not limited to one political party. He's piqued the interest of conservatives, republicans, independents, libertarians and democrats that don't aspire to teach at Berkeley. He's caught a bolt of lightning that's not conservative, progressive or anything in between. It's called anti-establishment and the leaders of this country couldn't have done a better job in creating this phenomenon if they planned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Trump can do just about anything and it doesn't stick because he sticks his middle finger at the media and everyone laughs at them first.You realize, I hope, that the media is riding Trump to the nomination, where they will then all turn on him to document his fall? Once he is the lone GOP candidate, we'll hear about Trump University, David Duke, KKK, Mussolini, calling women bimbos, telling female employees how he'd like to see them on their knees, and how he really has no plan beyond a sound bite. He's being played, and no, he's not smart enough to realize it because he doesn't care about anything but all the free press he is getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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