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QBs Matter, Not Defenses (Sort of)


timstep

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Cutler is pre-Super Bowl run Flacco.

No, he is not. Flacco is a stand-up stud of a QB with good but not great skill, Cutler is a dysfunctional prima donna with good but not great skill. Sorry. Flacco won a SB at 27-- Cutler is pushing 32 and has done nothing.

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I do think an argument can be made that the Daltons-Cutlers-Kaepernicks of the world are by far the worst players to have on your roster. Their performance vs what you can get out of a guy like Orton, Hoyer, EJ, Matt Moore is simply not worth the extra ~$15 mil of cap space they require. Give me 2-3 extra good starters and Hoyer over Dalton or Cutler.

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I think that is an oversimplification. Over the last 15 years the team has lacked talent generally, in signigicant part because of a lot of bad drafts. The team has been bad on both sides of the ball. Only quite recently has the talent level increased, mostly on defense. With some tweaks to the OL, this is likely a playoff team with poor/average QB play. I agree to go the final step and be a big threat in the playoffs, they need to have a good, if not great QB-- someone like a Flacco or Rivers.

What about the early/mid-2000s Bills, they had stacked defenses for a number years with Winfield, Clements, Washington, Spikes, Williams, etc.? I mean, yes, mostly the team has been abysmal, but they did try this "if we just build a #1 defense" approach before, and it resulted in almost the same outcome.

 

We got poor/average QB play this year out of Orton, who exactly is going to elevate that with an improved o-line? Manuel? Hoyer? Cousins?

 

Let me put it this way, if the Bills announced today they had traded multiple early picks to get Rivers, I'd be ecstatic. Rivers has been elevating a pretty horrible team for a number of years. Imagine if they had a garbage QB, they'd be 2-14 every year.

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Great, I'm sold! I too believe it's much easier to win with a franchise QB.

 

Err, So, where do we pick one up?

 

Not sure what the point of this analysis is is. We already knew that. The problem is that the Bills already have a top D. So they'll use that to try and win games while they either develop of find a franchise guy. I'm not sure what else they're supposed to do.

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No, he is not. Flacco is a stand-up stud of a QB with good but not great skill, Cutler is a dysfunctional prima donna with good but not great skill. Sorry. Flacco won a SB at 27-- Cutler is pushing 32 and has done nothing.

What attitude problems does Cutler have?

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I don't mean in a player for swap sense. I mean, if Brady was drafted by a bad team, do you think he's still Brady? To develop a QB, you have to have a good team around him. In our case, it's the line that is the weak link. If they can fix that, I think even EJ can develop. He has certainly shown flashes. But when your team is inconsistent, it tends to make you inconsistent as a QB.

 

 

What's the difference between Tom Brady and the Ryan Leafs / Jamarcus Russells of the world? It wasn't the team they were drafted by. Pure and simple to be a great QB in this league you need all the physical tools, but you also need to have the edge where you will be the hardest worker in the building, you'll be the first one in and last one out every single day, you need to go home and watch more tape, not be out late on Friday nights.

 

Brady, Peyton, Rodgers, Luck were gifted with great physical tools, but they are also hardcore workaholics who shut out the rest of the world for at least half the year in the interests of getting better at their jobs. No one accidentally becomes a great NFL QB.

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Wilson is a great QB who doesn't have to throw a lot. He's not the "baseline."

 

Wilson most definitely has limitations as a pocket passer. His legs and Marshawn's legs let them avoid having to do things he can't.

 

 

 

 

Without anecdotal examples the Belicheat avatar would have 7,900 fewer posts. That's no fun.

Good ? I'd say Tannehill is in the ballpark. But the defense would have to be pretty outstanding.

 

I wouldn't kick Dalton out of bed for eating crackers.

 

 

What attitude problems does Cutler have?

 

For real? :huh:

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Please don't say things like "accepting mediocrity." Nobody "accepts that" and it makes you come off like you are more discerning than everyone else. You have an idea, it is interesting. It is not likely-- IMO-- to lead anywhere except an awful team with all the wasted picks you propose. But it is different.

Go back to when Orton was signed, and then had one or two good games, the pronounces of a franchise savior were not unusual, despite the fact that multiple teams had turned the page on this guy. It's the same thing with Fitzpatrick. People are willing to accept proven left-overs from another team and try to turn them into gold, and then are surprised that it doesn't work out. Over and over again. And when the Bills sign Hoyer or McCown, or some other journeyman vet, who does just enough to get people excited for a game or two, the same thing is gonna happen.

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Draft multiple QBs every year until you find a franchise QB. I don't care about the "What about the rest of the team!" argument. That argument has produced nothing. That argument has failed for 15 years. It's radical and crazy and nobody will ever do it, but accepting mediocrity has grown tiresome.

Crappy arguments are tiresome. Who drafts QBs every year? No one.

 

Look back at how Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, Wilson, Kaep, all landed with their teams. Or even Luck and Peyton. All of those guys were drafted at the spot they fell to. No one moved up, made wild trades. No one sold the farm to land their guy. Eli, Vick, RG3, and Sanchise are recent examples where a team sold the farm to move up and address the QB position. Hasn't exactly worked.

 

Your argument may as well be "more lotto tickets".

Edited by Jauronimo
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What attitude problems does Cutler have?

 

Aside from being aloof, nonchalant, and egotistical - none. Walking off the field in the 2011 Championship game didn't exactly project the image of a gamer.

Edited by QCity
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Crappy arguments are tiresome. Who drafts QBs every year? No one.

 

Look back at how Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Brady, Ryan, Wilson, Kaep, all landed with their teams. Or even Luck and Peyton. All of those guys were drafted at the spot they fell to. No one moved up, made wild trades. No one sold the farm to land their guy. Eli, Vick, RG3, and Sanchise are recent examples where a team sold the farm to move up and address the QB position. Hasn't exactly worked.

Crappy teams are more tiresome.

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What about the early/mid-2000s Bills, they had stacked defenses for a number years with Winfield, Clements, Washington, Spikes, Williams, etc.? I mean, yes, mostly the team has been abysmal, but they did try this "if we just build a #1 defense" approach before, and it resulted in almost the same outcome.

 

We got poor/average QB play this year out of Orton, who exactly is going to elevate that with an improved o-line? Manuel? Hoyer? Cousins?

 

Let me put it this way, if the Bills announced today they had traded multiple early picks to get Rivers, I'd be ecstatic. Rivers has been elevating a pretty horrible team for a number of years. Imagine if they had a garbage QB, they'd be 2-14 every year.

OK I understand. We agree that a good QB is very important. You are suggesting creative/expensive ways to find one, because they are so hard to find. That's cool.

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Wilson most definitely has limitations as a pocket passer. His legs and Marshawn's legs let them avoid having to do things he can't.

 

For real? :huh:

Teams try to make Wilson beat them from the pocket all the time. It doesn't work. Kaep, RG3, Vick have all collapsed, and Wilson keeps dominating. His limitations in the pocket are slight, if not nonexistent.

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Go back to when Orton was signed, and then had one or two good games, the pronounces of a franchise savior were not unusual, despite the fact that multiple teams had turned the page on this guy. It's the same thing with Fitzpatrick. People are willing to accept proven left-overs from another team and try to turn them into gold, and then are surprised that it doesn't work out. Over and over again. And when the Bills sign Hoyer or McCown, or some other journeyman vet, who does just enough to get people excited for a game or two, the same thing is gonna happen.

No one said that about Orton-- no one. And what do you care if other people get excited, not your concern.

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Forgive me, this has been on mind awhile...

 

There is an interesting Freakonomics article from 2012 that dissects the "defenses win championships" idea pretty solidly. A snippet:

 

 

Another interesting bit:

 

 

On the flip side, the list of "game manager" (i.e. sub-par) QBs to win championships is very small - Rex Grossman in 2007, Trent Dilfer in 2000. Lose a championship? Stan Humphries. Neil O'Donnell. Kerry Collins.

 

Consider the rule changes in recent years - are they there to help defenses or offenses?

 

Now look at this upcoming weekend:

Brady vs. Luck

Rodgers vs. Wilson

 

Two of the best veteran QBs, both who have rings, vs. two the best young QBs, one who already has a ring.

 

The QBs who lost last weekend - Manning, Flacco, Newton, Romo.

 

I'm pretty sure if you look at the final 4, the final 8, of the last 15 years, the majority of those teams are lead by franchise QBs, not journeyman, not projects, not retreads.

 

The point?

 

Just like our Great Lakes brethren in Cleveland, it doesn't matter if the Bills have a top 5 defense, a young star wide receiver, good RBs, a good line, until their is a legitimate franchise quarterback under center, this team will be on the outside looking in.

 

It does not matter if the Bills defense is #1 under Ryan. It matters that this team find a legitimate, young, franchise QB to lead this team. Anything else is a waste of time and will not move the franchise forward.

 

You post a topic, theories and articles all rooted in percentages. But then you go on to make absolute declarations about how you can NOT win the big game without a top QB. Makes no sense.

 

No one is ever going to argue that you don't need a top tier QB to have a better chance to be a good team and with in the playoffs and SB. However, to say you can't do it when there have been plenty of teams that have won with marginal or worse QBs is a ridiculous jump in logic based on your post.

 

Clearly, the NFL is currently a passing league. Clearly, having premiere talent at QB and WR makes it easier to score points. However, how many SB's has Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Dan Marion won? Combined a total of 2. Thats the 3 most prolific passers in history and all the passing records between those guys, and the 3 of them managed just 2 SB wins. Eli Manning by himself has 2...let that sink in.

 

Peyton Manning has been "One and Done" NINE times in the playoffs...NINE. Thats insanely bad, yet he's the most prolific passer in history.

 

I want a top QB too, its a hell of a lot easier if you got a good QB to be a good team. But there is no perfect way to win the SB and it can be done many different ways and there are many variables that come into play every season. If it was just about the QB, then Peyton and Brees wouldn't have the same amount of rings as Dilfer and Hostetler...further more, Marino wouldnt have the same number of rings as Trentative Edwards and Fitzcraptrick.

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Seriously? Just google him. He is largely detested by fans and teammates alike.

You show me. You made a claim, back it up. And screw what the fans think, "fans" are knee-jerking morons. Show me where he is largely "detested" by his teammates. Please.

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You show me. You made a claim, back it up. And screw what the fans think, "fans" are knee-jerking morons. Show me where he is largely "detested" by his teammates. Please.

I don't know how to link. But if you google Jay Cutler attitude or Jay Cutler arrogance you'll find everything you need. Sorry about my technological limitations.

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You post a topic, theories and articles all rooted in percentages. But then you go on to make absolute declarations about how you can NOT win the big game without a top QB. Makes no sense.

 

No one is ever going to argue that you don't need a top tier QB to have a better chance to be a good team and with in the playoffs and SB. However, to say you can't do it when there have been plenty of teams that have won with marginal or worse QBs is a ridiculous jump in logic based on your post.

 

Clearly, the NFL is currently a passing league. Clearly, having premiere talent at QB and WR makes it easier to score points. However, how many SB's has Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Dan Marion won? Combined a total of 2. Thats the 3 most prolific passers in history and all the passing records between those guys, and the 3 of them managed just 2 SB wins. Eli Manning by himself has 2...let that sink in.

 

Peyton Manning has been "One and Done" NINE times in the playoffs...NINE. Thats insanely bad, yet he's the most prolific passer in history.

 

I want a top QB too, its a hell of a lot easier if you got a good QB to be a good team. But there is no perfect way to win the SB and it can be done many different ways and there are many variables that come into play every season. If it was just about the QB, then Peyton and Brees wouldn't have the same amount of rings as Dilfer and Hostetler...further more, Marino wouldnt have the same number of rings as Trentative Edwards and Fitzcraptrick.

I did not state absolutes, but I'm not just talking about Super Bowls, I'm talking about making the playoffs. Marino did that a few times, so has Manning. You're right, there is no perfect way, but the "defense wins championships" canard that is being bandied about is not going to get this team over the hump they've been stuck on for 15 years.

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