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timstep

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Everything posted by timstep

  1. Sort of. My thought isn't that the Bills need a great QB, that's self-evident. It's the approach to acquire one. The approach so far has been either: 1. Reach in the draft for a project (EJ, Trent, JP, Todd Collins) 2. Pick up a well-traveled veteran (Orton, Fitzpatrick, Holcomb,etc. etc.) Neither of these have worked out. The only time the offense has been remotely dangerous was with Bledsoe - i.e a legit franchise QB. He had good seasons in 2002 and 2004 (2003 was a wash because of all the injuries). The problem is that you need a partner to trade, so going out and getting, for example, Phillip Rivers, relies on San Diego being willing to move him, which I doubt they are. That brings me back around to the blitzkrieg approach - multiple draft picks per year. IMO, and I think the playoff teams each year back this up - QB is the most important position on the team, so pretending that continuing with options 1 and 2 is going to get it done just seems ridiculous. This isn't "DUH QBS are important," its the approach to acquiring one, and to that I'm saying the approach has to be radical, insane, beyond reasonable to most. Am I suggesting something that will sacrifice the future in order to provide (possibly) immediate results? Sure, because the other options continue to fail.
  2. I did not state absolutes, but I'm not just talking about Super Bowls, I'm talking about making the playoffs. Marino did that a few times, so has Manning. You're right, there is no perfect way, but the "defense wins championships" canard that is being bandied about is not going to get this team over the hump they've been stuck on for 15 years.
  3. Go back to when Orton was signed, and then had one or two good games, the pronounces of a franchise savior were not unusual, despite the fact that multiple teams had turned the page on this guy. It's the same thing with Fitzpatrick. People are willing to accept proven left-overs from another team and try to turn them into gold, and then are surprised that it doesn't work out. Over and over again. And when the Bills sign Hoyer or McCown, or some other journeyman vet, who does just enough to get people excited for a game or two, the same thing is gonna happen.
  4. What about the early/mid-2000s Bills, they had stacked defenses for a number years with Winfield, Clements, Washington, Spikes, Williams, etc.? I mean, yes, mostly the team has been abysmal, but they did try this "if we just build a #1 defense" approach before, and it resulted in almost the same outcome. We got poor/average QB play this year out of Orton, who exactly is going to elevate that with an improved o-line? Manuel? Hoyer? Cousins? Let me put it this way, if the Bills announced today they had traded multiple early picks to get Rivers, I'd be ecstatic. Rivers has been elevating a pretty horrible team for a number of years. Imagine if they had a garbage QB, they'd be 2-14 every year.
  5. Draft multiple QBs every year until you find a franchise QB. I don't care about the "What about the rest of the team!" argument. That argument has produced nothing. That argument has failed for 15 years. It's radical and crazy and nobody will ever do it, but accepting mediocrity has grown tiresome.
  6. Russell, in terms of passing statics was 15th in total yards in 2014, 19th in attempts, 16th in TDs, He pretty much in the middle of the pack. However, he was 29th in INTs (he didn't turn it over) and was sacked 1 out every 95 attempts (10th best in league). When people talk about a "game manager," Wilson is the best possible version, because he's mobile, young and only going to get better.
  7. Yes, because choosing the other path has been played out with no success for this franchise, and rare success for others.
  8. But what's the upshot of not doing it? Since the Bills last playoff appearance, how many years has the Bills offense outranked the defense? My guess is not many? My guess is that the Bills have had a better overall defense more years than they have a better overall offense, and what has that gotten them? Two 9-7 seasons and no playoffs. So all you do by not doing it is continue the mediocrity.
  9. I'm not saying it's easy like going to the grocery store, but the odds are if you have a franchise QB and an average defense, you're going farther than having not having a franchise QB and a great defense. And history bares that out.
  10. The odds of filling holes with free agency, late round picks and undrafted free agents is far better with every other position than with QBs.
  11. In many ways you're right, because as the league office tilts the rules even more towards offense and passing to drive up scoring and make the game more exciting, the few below-average QBs who led teams to Super Bowls in the past become even more irrelevant to the current day game.
  12. My bad, I misstated on Grossman, he did GET to a SB. The statistics in the Freakonomics articles are for 45 years worth of stats, choosing anecdotal examples at a time when defenses could maul WRs and TEs at the line, as opposed the current NFL, is not really relevant.
  13. I totally agree with you - keep buying lottery tickets. Remember the year the Redskins drafted RGIII? They also drafted Kirk Cousins. As insane as it sounds, maybe it's time to start drafting a couple QBs every year. I mean, you're right, you're trying to hit lightning in the proverbial bottle, so you don't fire one shot every other year, you fire multiple. Andrew Luck was pretty much the only no-miss QB in the last 10 years, the Colts knew he was a stud. I know it's crazy, but has anything else propelled this team to a playoff spot in the last 15 years? Or the Browns? Or any number of other mediocre franchises?
  14. Of course there are multiple factors, and many things have to align like the right coach, and scheme, and surrounding players. But if you swapped Orton and Luck this year, do you think the Bills would be better and the Colts would be worse, or that the skill level and physical ability of those players plays not part in the overall success of the team? I don't even understand your point, which makes sense, because anyone who has watched Big Ben and doesn't think the guy is a franchise QB is defying reality.
  15. The shoulda, woulda and coulda's with this team and the draft are astounding. I still remember screaming at my car radio when they passed on Nick Mangold to draft John McCargo. A team that had just let Trey Teague go in favor of Melvin Fowler. Every team has plenty of what-ifs when it comes to the draft, but few teams have been hurt as badly by those decisions as the Bills in the 15 years.
  16. Did I say that? Are you inferring he's not a franchise QB? He's ridiculous efficient, is a dangerous runner, has a good arm and is in another championship game. If the Bills had drafted Wilson, I don't know he would have developed the same way, but he's far better than any QB who has been on the Bills roster since Jim Kelly, and yes, I'm including Bledsoe.
  17. Well, then it becomes, do you want to chase a veteran (like Denver did with Manning) or start with a rookie? I'd rather start with a rookie, but we're out that ballgame until 2016, because the odds of hitting another Russell Wilson this year are poor thanks to an already weak QB draft class. You could chase Cutler, but that seems like a lost cause. The guy isn't a 4-year vet in need of a new view, he's pretty much reached his peak. Someone might kick the tires on Sam Bradford or RGIII, but the injuries just keep mounting for those two. As a stop-gap for 1-2 years, Bills are probably looking at Brian Hoyer (aka Ryan Fitzpatrick 2.0), Kirk Cousins, either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon (one of whom will be cut when they draft Winston), or one of many other back-up/wannabes.
  18. Franchise does not equal gunslinger. Bills don't need Brett Farve. Flacco has been inconsistent, but he's been a top 10 QB based on statistics, and has an excellent post-season record. You're right, it's just that, aside from a few exceptions, they go to waste without a franchise QB. If you read the article, they did analyze regular season numbers. And it's essentially a wash, meaning having a great defense is a 50/50 proposition. Agree on "you still need other players," but only a to a degree. A high-caliber QB can elevate the players around him. How many Hall-of-Fame WRs and RBs has Brady played with on his SB teams? How about Eli Manning? or Russell Wilson? Or Big Ben? I would argue that after the QB, the number one priority is not the weapons, but the protection.
  19. So you'd rather hitch your wagon to an occasional blip on the radar than accept history and reality? This is why we can't have nice things.
  20. Forgive me, this has been on mind awhile... There is an interesting Freakonomics article from 2012 that dissects the "defenses win championships" idea pretty solidly. A snippet: Another interesting bit: On the flip side, the list of "game manager" (i.e. sub-par) QBs to win championships is very small - Rex Grossman in 2007, Trent Dilfer in 2000. Lose a championship? Stan Humphries. Neil O'Donnell. Kerry Collins. Consider the rule changes in recent years - are they there to help defenses or offenses? Now look at this upcoming weekend: Brady vs. Luck Rodgers vs. Wilson Two of the best veteran QBs, both who have rings, vs. two the best young QBs, one who already has a ring. The QBs who lost last weekend - Manning, Flacco, Newton, Romo. I'm pretty sure if you look at the final 4, the final 8, of the last 15 years, the majority of those teams are lead by franchise QBs, not journeyman, not projects, not retreads. The point? Just like our Great Lakes brethren in Cleveland, it doesn't matter if the Bills have a top 5 defense, a young star wide receiver, good RBs, a good line, until their is a legitimate franchise quarterback under center, this team will be on the outside looking in. It does not matter if the Bills defense is #1 under Ryan. It matters that this team find a legitimate, young, franchise QB to lead this team. Anything else is a waste of time and will not move the franchise forward.
  21. Wha? We're not even 1/3rd of the way through the college football season, and you can already make that claim? Fairly certain most respected college and pro football analysts would disagree. In reality, 3-5 of those guys will be starting next year, and the Bills should draft one. It doesn't matter if he plays well or not, recycling failed back-ups and 1st round busts isn't the longterm answer, even if it means doing what Atlanta and Philly have done and ship guys out for draft picks in a few years.
  22. There is little to no market for running backs. The top offenses in the league? Green Bay, New England, New Orleans - they just rotate guys in and out. What teams have "franchise" running backs? Minnesota, Tennessee? How'd that help them? Franchise running backs is an outdated concept from a decade ago when the league was balanced offensively. It's not. It's a passing league. This team needs defense. This team needs offensive line depth. This team needs guys who can catch the ball in clutch situations. Guys who can rush the passer in this league are commodities. Running backs are not.
  23. What this guy said. To call the current Bills a "good" football team is to misunderstand the meaning of the word "good." The realistic title should be "The Bills are a good snake-bitten, poor drafting, mismanaged and for short spurts that give unrealistic hope to their desperately loyal fanbase, overachieving but mostly disappointing football team"
  24. I would get over it, but the networks didn't dedicate a segment an hour to Mark Bavaro, and this is my entire point. I follow plenty of Bills players on Twitter, and many of them are religious. They tweet about God and Faith, and I have 0 problem with - I choose to follow them. The problem I have is that the NFL and media are acting like religion and charity did not exist in professional sports until Tebow arrived with 3:16 deliberately written on his eye black. And please do not pretend this is some anti-religious thing. The US is the most religious nation in the world. The pity-me persecution card played by Christians is as laughable as it is disingenuous. Especially considering if Tim Tebow were not Christian, and said "praise Allah" during every press conference spoke about the Koran, Christian groups like Focus On The Family, that Tebow supports, would be protesting him.
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