bbb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The bolded part above reflects exactly how I feel. When the Falcons made the trade up for Julio Jones, they had a franchise QB in place. When Whaley made this trade, they have a QB they really like, but the jury is still out. They simply should/could have taken Ebron and called it a day. Ebron would help EJ develop and next year's first round pick is still in the bank account should EJ have a setback of some kind. With an uncertain QB situation, the risk-reward simply doesn't favor this trade. I hope with all my might that this trade turns out well but I stand by my assertion that this was not a good risk to take given where the team is today. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 If the Bills finish at 6-10 or 7-9, even if they had their pick in 2015, they wouldn't be in a position to draft a "franchise QB." If this past year is any indication it wouldn't put them anywhere nearer to the top of the draft. If there is a "franchise guy" or 2, they would likely go 1,2. Sorry, but the Bills wouldn't be able to move that high. First the team picking 1 or 2 would probably want that QB for themselves. Second, if that team didn't want a QB and was willing to trade, I'm sure there would be teams closer to 1, 2 looking for a QB that could offer a better trade, i.e. meaning team picking at 1 could move to 3 or 4, let's say, instead of 9. I've become of the mindset that you get one at all cost --- and keep drafting, trading etc until you have one --- it's amazing that there are only 16 or so elite QB's capable of winning a SB ---- ---- I agree moving from 12 or 13 to top 3 is difficult --- maybe impossible, but moving from round 2 (40ish overall) IS impossible --- again --- my issue is that PLUS the face that I don't think Sammy is that much different a player than Beckham or Ebron, in terms of impact ---- ---- if EJ doesn't work out, the only path the Bills might have for franchise QB is the "suck for Luck" or what Sabres are doing for McDavid or Eichel --- --- hell, it's been almost 20 years since Kelly retired -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Who ? . . . Romo by trade ? Pretty slim pickings on 2015 UFA's http://overthecap.co...on=QB&Year=2015 --- in my world, franchise QB is the 1st, 2nd and 3rd things on the priority list to build winner --- get one, and the rest is easy to compete for playoffs---- build a decent team around one and you have SB contender --- --- it's an easy recipe to win, but VERY difficult to do --- Dalton, Smith, Bradford or Romo are the most likely to me. I could see some other becoming available depending on how the season plays out (Ryan, Big Ben, Rivers, Cutler, Palmer, Kaepernick & Eli). Those are less likely but if even 1 of those guys hits the market the Bills will be prime candidates with their cap space and the roster built to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) The bolded part above reflects exactly how I feel. When the Falcons made the trade up for Julio Jones, they had a franchise QB in place. When Whaley made this trade, they have a QB they really like, but the jury is still out. They simply should/could have taken Ebron and called it a day. Ebron would help EJ develop and next year's first round pick is still in the bank account should EJ have a setback of some kind. With an uncertain QB situation, the risk-reward simply doesn't favor this trade. I hope with all my might that this trade turns out well but I stand by my assertion that this was not a good risk to take given where the team is today. How is it that you say there is no guarantee that Watkins will work out, but then suggest that Ebron would help EJ develop? Wouldn't Watkins help EJ develop? And considering Watkins > Ebron, isn't it more likely that Watkins has a greater chance of helping EJ develop. Watkins is considered far far far better than Ebron, you suggest just staying at 9 and picking Ebron. What if Ebron doesn't work out, just another wasted 1st rd pick, no? Edited May 20, 2014 by Wayne Cubed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Dalton, Smith, Bradford or Romo are the most likely to me. I could see some other becoming available depending on how the season plays out (Ryan, Big Ben, Rivers, Cutler, Palmer, Kaepernick & Eli). Those are less likely but if even 1 of those guys hits the market the Bills will be prime candidates with their cap space and the roster built to win. Bradford is intriguing -- some of the others you list are signed well past next year --- would need a young QB to emerge, similar to Brady-Bledsoe that made Bledsoe expendable -- hopefully with better results than what we saw with that trade How is it that there you say there is no guarantee that Watkins will work out, but then suggest that Ebron would help EJ develop? Wouldn't Watkins help EJ develop? And considering Watkins > Ebron, isn't it more likely that Watkins has a greater chance of helping EJ develop. Watkins is considered far far far better than Ebron, you suggest just staying at 9 and picking Ebron. What if Ebron doesn't work out, just another wasted 1st rd pick, no? I'm certainly not suggesting that Ebron would have helped EJ more or has bigger upside or greater chance to succeed than Sammy --- I had Sammy rated higher and think he has better chance --- I just don't think the difference between the two is 1st round pick significant ---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Bradford is intriguing -- some of the others you list are signed well past next year --- would need a young QB to emerge, similar to Brady-Bledsoe that made Bledsoe expendable -- hopefully with better results than what we saw with that trade Agree, my thought is that if one of those teams bottoms out they may look to unload a $20M QB if they do not think that they can win while he is there. Romo may be the best example. If Dallas were to go like 5-11 would they want to retain a 34 year old $20M a year guy? They may clear that space, select a QB early and start their rebuild. I actually believe that some of these crazy QB contracts are going to come full circle. There are some decent QBs that have scored huge deals that have held them back. The Dalton contract situation will be an interesting test case. He has been good in the regular season and brutal in the playoffs. What type of offer will Cincy make? Just something to think about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOGNESS Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I still don't like the cost of the trade. Is Watkins that much better than Beckham? ...who we could have gotten at 9. Watkins is one hundred times better than Beckham. Sammys projected stats for 2014. 6000 receptions for 80000 yards and 900 tds. Im psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Agree, my thought is that if one of those teams bottoms out they may look to unload a $20M QB if they do not think that they can win while he is there. Romo may be the best example. If Dallas were to go like 5-11 would they want to retain a 34 year old $20M a year guy? They may clear that space, select a QB early and start their rebuild. I actually believe that some of these crazy QB contracts are going to come full circle. There are some decent QBs that have scored huge deals that have held them back. The Dalton contract situation will be an interesting test case. He has been good in the regular season and brutal in the playoffs. What type of offer will Cincy make? Just something to think about... I think your scenario is possible -- definitely agree on the contracts these QB's are signing, but when you put it into the context that a team can't win without a good one, it's understandable --- and take a look at what the CB's are getting --- watch out for Gilmore this year, he sees the $$, I expect a big year from him ---- as for Dalton -- I think he is the ultimate QB tease -- I think he is the definition of an average QB, made better by his OC and HoF in making WR (Green) ---- I wouldn't want him because I think he is at his ceiling --- and I loved Dalton while he was at TCU --- Cincy is in tough place --- but if I were Bills FO, I'd rather go with someone with more upside --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TC in St. Louis Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I don't care about next year's draft as much as I care about this year's team. Bills were a handful of plays from being a winning team last year. Keeping EJ on his feet will make a big difference. Another year with the coaching regime, including a new QB coach, will certainly help. Having Watkins will also help. They have taken steps to improve the team, especially the running game with Spikes and moving Kiko to his natural position where he should do even better. I'm stoked. I'm glad they got Watkins. I watched Clemson complete a bunch of passes, and I kept thinking it was Boyd. It was Watkins. all along. Watkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I think your scenario is possible -- definitely agree on the contracts these QB's are signing, but when you put it into the context that a team can't win without a good one, it's understandable --- and take a look at what the CB's are getting --- watch out for Gilmore this year, he sees the $$, I expect a big year from him ---- as for Dalton -- I think he is the ultimate QB tease -- I think he is the definition of an average QB, made better by his OC and HoF in making WR (Green) ---- I wouldn't want him because I think he is at his ceiling --- and I loved Dalton while he was at TCU --- Cincy is in tough place --- but if I were Bills FO, I'd rather go with someone with more upside --- Totally agree with all of that. Cincy is in a weird place with him. That is actually the team that the Bills remind me the most of. A really talented and balanced roster with a big question mark under center. Dalton has had more success so far but more opportunity as well. Can they move on from a guy that has led them to the playoffs multiple times and is still young? At the same time can you commit the kind of money that the Cutler's of the world are getting to a guy that you don't believe is good enough to get you over the top? It should be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kemp2Warlick Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Watkins is one hundred times better than Beckham. Sammys projected stats for 2014. 6000 receptions for 80000 yards and 900 tds. Im psyched. HA!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Totally agree with all of that. Cincy is in a weird place with him. That is actually the team that the Bills remind me the most of. A really talented and balanced roster with a big question mark under center. Dalton has had more success so far but more opportunity as well. Can they move on from a guy that has led them to the playoffs multiple times and is still young? At the same time can you commit the kind of money that the Cutler's of the world are getting to a guy that you don't believe is good enough to get you over the top? It should be interesting for sure. It's funny, every time I see Dalton I tell my friends he reminds me of that management book, "Good to Great" -- in it, the author says that Good is the enemy of Great --- that, to me is Dalton. He's not good enough to win a SuperBowl, but he's not bad enough to get waived -- so what does Cincy do ? --- if it were me, I would not pay him and I'd try and get a 1st for him in a trade --- --- I'm with you on the Bills roster -- I think there is one BIG question mark, QB ! --- a few small ones, Safety, depth at DE (which could be eliminated once we see Schwartz scheme) and TE. The draft and FA should have solved O-Line (LG and RT); WR; LB and CB --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 It's also entirely possible that the Bills are willing to give EJ 3 full years, like most every other team does with their young QB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Campy Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 It's also entirely possible that the Bills are willing to give EJ 3 full years, like most every other team does with their young QB's. One can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I've become of the mindset that you get one at all cost --- and keep drafting, trading etc until you have one --- it's amazing that there are only 16 or so elite QB's capable of winning a SB ---- ---- I agree moving from 12 or 13 to top 3 is difficult --- maybe impossible, but moving from round 2 (40ish overall) IS impossible --- again --- my issue is that PLUS the face that I don't think Sammy is that much different a player than Beckham or Ebron, in terms of impact ---- ---- if EJ doesn't work out, the only path the Bills might have for franchise QB is the "suck for Luck" or what Sabres are doing for McDavid or Eichel --- --- hell, it's been almost 20 years since Kelly retired -- And, if you go by NFL.com's rankings, 12 of those 16 were first round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jahbonas Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 And, if you go by NFL.com's rankings, 12 of those 16 were first round picks. AGAIN - how did Denver acquire their current QB ? How did the Saints acquire their current QB? How did the Seahawks acquire their current QB? How did the SF 49rs acquire their current QB? How did the Patriots acquire their current QB ? How did the Bengals acquire their current QB? How did the Eagles acquire their current QB? How did the KC Chiefs acquire their current QB? That might be the top 8 teams in the NFL and NONE of them acquired their current QB by using a #1 draft pick. So can we please stop with the phoney idea that a team cannot acquire a top QB if it does not have a 1st rd pick? The Bills will have $50 million next year to spend NONE of them did so by using a #1 draft choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXBILLSFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 AGAIN - how did Denver acquire their current QB ? How did the Saints acquire their current QB? How did the Seahawks acquire their current QB? How did the SF 49rs acquire their current QB? How did the Patriots acquire their current QB ? How did the Bengals acquire their current QB? How did the Eagles acquire their current QB? How did the KC Chiefs acquire their current QB? That might be the top 8 teams in the NFL and NONE of them acquired their current QB by using a #1 draft pick. So can we please stop with the phoney idea that a team cannot acquire a top QB if it does not have a 1st rd pick? The Bills will have $50 million next year to spend NONE of them did so by using a #1 draft choice Interesting point. I'd take Dalton, Foles and Alex Smith off your list, but might add Cutler and Romo. That says 7 franchise-caliber QB's are on NFL rosters that weren't drafted by their current team as #1 pick. There are 9 that I believe were (Flacco, Roethlisberger, Luck, Rivers, Eli, Newton, Ryan, Stafford and Rodgers). Too early to say on RG3, Tannehill, Bradford and host of others. For simplicity, let's say it's 50/50. What your missing is, by having the 1st pick, you essentially double your odds at getting one, because you can go either route, take one with a 1st round pick or go after one via trade (Cutler), as UFA (Peyton, Brees) or later in draft or undrafted (Brady, Wilson, Romo and Kaepernick). Again, trading the 1 makes it harder, not impossible, but harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Exactly - it's all about the odds! If anybody thinks we're getting a Manning or a Brees type, I'd like to know what they think the odds are of that - without having that main trading chip in your bag. Even with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jahbonas Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Exactly - it's all about the odds! If anybody thinks we're getting a Manning or a Brees type, I'd like to know what they think the odds are of that - without having that main trading chip in your bag. Even with it. If you wanna play odds it could easily be argued that any free agent QB in 2015 would be more likely to sign with the Bills because a WR like Sammy Watkins is here to throw to - and the only way to acquire Sammy was to trade away the #1 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 And the sad thing is local media is whining as well. We gave up two #1 picks for a guy that most likely (according to EVERY 'expert') will become an elite player. But Buffalo gave up too much? What is an elite player that other teams must game plan for worth? I don't remember anywhere near the angst from NFLN, ESPN Etal. about the Julio Jones trade and they gave up essentially THREE #1's a #2 etc. But why is this? Because its BUFFALO! All of a sudden this 'elite' player who many teams had #1 Overall on their board 'must work out to justify the cost'? Um this is the same guy you guys were touting as either the top guy or top 2 in your analysis and mock drafts right? The same guy who the experts said would be an elite WR, that would excel in the NFL, a 'No miss prospect'? But all of a sudden he must work out? Typical Bull **** bias toward the Bills and it has been glaring from that pick through now when the media and some fans are still whining about it. Sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. Who knows who we get next year and honestly I dont give a damn about the 2015 draft at all. I want to win NOW. I want to see significant progress NOW. And if whaley is good he will keep the quality talent he knows can fit our system and win (within reason...) and he can find talent in the 2nd round on next year. If we have a playoff team THIS year, adding to it in the future is much easier...the core of the playoff team is already in place! Look Whaley has put together a team that should gel pretty damn well before that really crappy December run. If we get a RT And Guard that start and kick ass, along with The running game improving and Watkins, Wood, Williams and Goodwin kicking ass along with FINALLY stopping the run much better than we did, then this team is light years ahead of even last year. And to me that means playoffs. Ill just say it right now, (and I get these are two if's) IF the team stays healthy, and IF the new guys Gel... We beat NE for the AFCE Title. Yes I said it, we will win the AFC East division title. Its on like a Mofo! Well said. EJ remaining healthy is key. Goodwin, I believe will step up this year. Much to be optimistic about. Go Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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