Wannsteds squad just lost the game.

[prissythecat]

Note the decision making. About as "spot on" as CAR's decision to attempt to go up by 6 points (and kickoff to BUF with 1:30 left in the game) rather than go for 1 yard to effectively end the game. Great idea - go up by 6 - give the ball back to BUF with only 2 clear possibilities: win the game with a TD and XP or lose the game. The alternative: win the game by gaining 1 yard, or don't gain the 1 yard and give BUF the ball back at their own 20 with a chance to win OR (more likely) tie and send it to OT. Brutal.

 

The decision-making in the NFL is frequently abysmal.

 

(For anyone who is interested, there is a piece on Schiano's bungled decision on Advanced NFL Stats.)

 

Nothing wrong with their decision. Football is not a card game since skill differential matters and not everything is up to chance.

[atlbillsfan1975]

The problem is that Wanny should not be anywhere near a NFL team. Shcianno gave Wanny a job just like Gailey because of past relationships.

Wanny has got to be either as guilt tripper or a salesman for himself. He stinks as a coach. Nepotism is usually a very bad thing. Seems Shcianno is figuring that out the hard way like Gailey did.

[Gordio]

I don't think it was that bad a decision. Considering the Bills rep and a rookie QB up to that point, plus the fact our D was playing them tough all game, going up 6 was a good option.

 

PTR

 

It was a horrible decision. They were running very well at that point of the game. If you can't get a yard they don't deserve to win the game. It is not a coincidence that Carolina is now 2-14 in games decided by less then a TD since Riveria has been head coach. Chicken Sh*t calls like that cost teams games.

[MRM33064]

The nerds (or I should probably say "we nerds") will take over the tactical decision-making in this sport at some point, but alas it's not likely to happen for awhile.

 

BuffOrrange is dead-on perfect with his analysis of the media tendency to analyze these things from an "after-the-fact" perspective. The decision needs to be assessed prior to the play, using score, time remaining, time-outs left, down and distance, etc.

 

I'll put it this way: as a Bills fan, I was praying that Rivera would kick the FG there, instead of going for it on 4th-and-1 and either: (a) winning the game (or, I should say, having probably a 99.99% to win the game by kneeling); or (b) giving us the ball back at the 20, with our likely goal at that point being an attempt to tie the game with a FG and go into OT. Sure, a TD to win the game would've been possible - but highly unlikely BUF would've forced the issue to go for the TD when a FG would've kept them alive.

 

Smart coaches (and it pains me to say this) like Darth Belichick have, and routinely do, go for it in that position.

 

Of course, no matter what CAR did ... at that point in the game they still had a very good chance to win. But their win probability actually went DOWN by making the FG and then kicking back off to BUF with 1:30 remaining - though it went down from about 80% to about 72-78%. It was still likely they'd win.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Never was a fan of Wanaclue. not a surprise. 2 weeks in a row the D let the Bucs down

[YoloinOhio]

Never was a fan of Wanaclue. not a surprise. 2 weeks in a row the D let the Bucs down

Wanny coaches ST in Tampa... but am sure his cluelessness has no doubt infiltrated all facets of the team by now.

[NoSaint]

Never was a fan of Wanaclue. not a surprise. 2 weeks in a row the D let the Bucs down

 

bucs d has been playing decently well, and aggressive (if not fairly dirty). its special teams hes in charge of and apparently lindell missing the kick is wannys fault. i dont particularly enjoy sticking up for him but in this case i think hes pretty low on the list.

Edited September 16, 2013 by NoSaint

[BuffaloBillsForever]

bucs d has been playing decently well, and aggressive (if not fairly dirty). its special teams hes in charge of and apparently lindell missing the kick is wannys fault. i dont particularly enjoy sticking up for him but in this case i think hes pretty low on the list.

 

Well to be honest you did say Wanny's scheme wasn't an issue last year and then cited the Patriots and the Saints as examples to the Bills.. LOL

[marauderswr80]

Wait till Revis holds out.........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again.

[NoSaint]

 

 

Well to be honest you did say Wanny's scheme wasn't an issue last year and then cited the Patriots and the Saints as examples to the Bills.. LOL

 

i do think that the players made A LOT of mistakes last year and that we shouldve been able to win more games with effective offense and defenders just doing their jobs (also a coaching issue though). scheme was an issue but players totally missing assignments within the scheme does no favors. it was clear no one trusted anyone next to them to do their jobs.

Edited September 16, 2013 by NoSaint

[BuffaloBillsForever]

i do think that the players made A LOT of mistakes last year and that we shouldve been able to win more games with effective offense and defenders just doing their jobs (also a coaching issue though). scheme was an issue but players totally missing assignments within the scheme does no favors. it was clear no one trusted anyone next to them to do their jobs.

 

LOL You still don't get it.

[microscopes]

 

That's an ironic take by you considering your harsh assessment of EJ.

 

How so?

 

I never said EJ cost us any loss.

[silvermike]

The nerds (or I should probably say "we nerds") will take over the tactical decision-making in this sport at some point, but alas it's not likely to happen for awhile.

 

BuffOrrange is dead-on perfect with his analysis of the media tendency to analyze these things from an "after-the-fact" perspective. The decision needs to be assessed prior to the play, using score, time remaining, time-outs left, down and distance, etc.

 

I'll put it this way: as a Bills fan, I was praying that Rivera would kick the FG there, instead of going for it on 4th-and-1 and either: (a) winning the game (or, I should say, having probably a 99.99% to win the game by kneeling); or (b) giving us the ball back at the 20, with our likely goal at that point being an attempt to tie the game with a FG and go into OT. Sure, a TD to win the game would've been possible - but highly unlikely BUF would've forced the issue to go for the TD when a FG would've kept them alive.

 

Smart coaches (and it pains me to say this) like Darth Belichick have, and routinely do, go for it in that position.

 

Of course, no matter what CAR did ... at that point in the game they still had a very good chance to win. But their win probability actually went DOWN by making the FG and then kicking back off to BUF with 1:30 remaining - though it went down from about 80% to about 72-78%. It was still likely they'd win.

 

Spot on. Also worth noting: even though Gano made the field goal, a 39-yard FG is not a 100% affair. And there are bad snaps, blocks, penalties and the rest to consider. All against the chances of gaining one yard against a tired defense.

[eball]

The nerds (or I should probably say "we nerds") will take over the tactical decision-making in this sport at some point, but alas it's not likely to happen for awhile.

 

BuffOrrange is dead-on perfect with his analysis of the media tendency to analyze these things from an "after-the-fact" perspective. The decision needs to be assessed prior to the play, using score, time remaining, time-outs left, down and distance, etc.

 

I'll put it this way: as a Bills fan, I was praying that Rivera would kick the FG there, instead of going for it on 4th-and-1 and either: (a) winning the game (or, I should say, having probably a 99.99% to win the game by kneeling); or (b) giving us the ball back at the 20, with our likely goal at that point being an attempt to tie the game with a FG and go into OT. Sure, a TD to win the game would've been possible - but highly unlikely BUF would've forced the issue to go for the TD when a FG would've kept them alive.

 

Smart coaches (and it pains me to say this) like Darth Belichick have, and routinely do, go for it in that position.

 

Of course, no matter what CAR did ... at that point in the game they still had a very good chance to win. But their win probability actually went DOWN by making the FG and then kicking back off to BUF with 1:30 remaining - though it went down from about 80% to about 72-78%. It was still likely they'd win.

 

Good analysis. Like you, I was begging for Rivera to kick the FG so at least we'd have a chance. The problem, as usual, is that too many coaches are "old school" and/or they fear for the second-guessing that will occur if they coach "aggressively" and it backfires -- even if the so-called aggressive play is backed up by statistics.

 

In Carolina's situation (4th and 1, opponent's 21, 1:42 on the clock), the difference in win probability for success/failure of attempting the FG was 82% vs. 81% -- almost negligible. By contrast, the win probability for success/failure of going for it was 97% vs. 84%. But here's the point -- even failing to convert on 4th and 1 results in a higher win probability than making the FG. It was just a bad decision, plain and simple.

 

The Bills thank Ron Rivera.

[MRM33064]

BuffOrrange, Silvermike, eball ... please submit resumes to Russ when the (eagerly awaited) "Analytics Department" opens.

 

A few game theory and/or statistics PhDs in place of another Adjunct Assistant Backup Linebackers Coach could pay off quite nicely, particularly in games decided by 7 points or fewer - of which there is no shortage.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Smart coaches (and it pains me to say this) like Darth Belichick have, and routinely do, go for it in that position.

 

Be careful, because right now I have two grave coaching concerns:

 

1. How long do you leave an ineffective T.J. Graham out there for plays?

2. Hackett's play calling has GOT to get better. You can only run that draw action running play so long...!

 

We have our own problems, but luckily this Sunday they weren't glaring.

[eball]

Be careful, because right now I have two grave coaching concerns:

 

1. How long do you leave an ineffective T.J. Graham out there for plays?

2. Hackett's play calling has GOT to get better. You can only run that draw action running play so long...!

 

We have our own problems, but luckily this Sunday they weren't glaring.

 

1. Define "ineffective" -- if you're simply looking at production through catches that's how it appears, but I haven't analyzed the film to see what's happening downfield. If TJ is taking one or two DBs out of the play, it's opening up things underneath (the old Lee Evans effect).

 

2. The Bills are running the ball quite effectively right now. I think slow and steady is the right way to open up this offense.

 

Please understand, I'm not defending Graham -- I just don't know if we can say he stinks yet.

[MarkKelso'sHelmet]

long way to fall, from head nfl coach, to college head coach, to d coordinator, to special teams coordinator... will his next demotion be quality control? yet he still keeps getting hired. it's a good old boys' club...

[mattsox]

Schiano's seat keeps getting hotter

 

Schiano, Ugh. Can't stand the guy. Him and Rivera are right there with coaches I can't stand.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1. Define "ineffective" -- if you're simply looking at production through catches that's how it appears, but I haven't analyzed the film to see what's happening downfield. If TJ is taking one or two DBs out of the play, it's opening up things underneath (the old Lee Evans effect).

 

2. The Bills are running the ball quite effectively right now. I think slow and steady is the right way to open up this offense.

 

Please understand, I'm not defending Graham -- I just don't know if we can say he stinks yet.

 

Every play I see him involved in, it is a hot mess. The only play I saw him remotely look good was the handoff and he ran down the sideline. We need an actual no #@!# WR out there and not some decoy/gimmick. How many more chances is he going to get before the experiment is ended?