Webster Guy Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Okay fine people of Two Bills Drive, I decided this year I'm going to place a few bets on season wins/losses for the upcoming NFL season. I was reading Eball's post about Irsay and the Colts, and some folks were saying how the Colts are overrated and squeaked out a bunch of close games last year etc., and it got me to thinking that maybe I can get some good thoughts from the best football fans in the nation right here. I'm looking for hunches, thoughts, and gut feelings on which team you think Vegas has overestimated or underestimated. So the parentheses beside the Over and Under notates the price of the bet. For instance: the Pats over is +115, so you would take home $115 if you bet $100 and won. If you bet the under it would take $135 to win $100. If you had to pick ONE bet for all your money, which one do you like? note: I called up Hackett (stole his number from Astro's phone) and he says Take The Bills Baby ! I assume he meant the over....... ARIZONA CARDINALS Over 5.5 (+130) Under 5.5 (-150) ATLANTA FALCONS Over 10 (+110) Under 10 (-130) BALTIMORE RAVENS Over 8.5 (-140) Under 8.5 (+120) BUFFALO BILLS Over 6.5 (+115) Under 6.5 (-135) CAROLINA PANTHERS Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) CHICAGO BEARS Over 8.5 (-120) Under 8.5 (even) CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 8.5 (+110) Under 8.5 (-130) CLEVELAND BROWNS Over 6 (-130) Under 6 (+110) DALLAS COWBOYS Over 8.5 (+135) Under 8.5 (-155) DENVER BRONCOS Over 11.5 (+110) Under 11.5 (-130) DETROIT LIONS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) GREEN BAY PACKERS Over 10 (-110) Under 10 (-110) HOUSTON TEXANS Over 10 (-130) Under 10 (+110) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Over 8.5 (even) Under 8.5 (-120) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+110) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Over 7 (-145) Under 7 (+125) MIAMI DOLPHINS Over 7.5 (-135) Under 7.5 (+115) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Over 11.5 (+115) Under 11.5 (-135) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Over 9 (-120) Under 9 (even) NEW YORK GIANTS Over 9 (even) Under 9 (-120) NEW YORK JETS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) OAKLAND RAIDERS Over 5.5 (+120) Under 5.5 (-140) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) PITTSBURGH STEELERS Over 9 (-120) Under 9 (even) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Over 7.5 (+115) Under 7.5 (-135) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 11.5 (+105) Under 11.5 (-125) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Over 10.5 (-110) Under 10.5 (-110) ST. LOUIS RAMS Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-140) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 7.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (+120) TENNESSEE TITANS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (-110) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max997 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I like a lot of unders Dallas Indy Philly The only over i like is Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Love over/under season win totals bets. Did very well with them myself last season. My favorite ones this year are: Falcons under - I think their offensive line is going to be a big issue. Lots of question on defense. Very difficult division with Tampa Bay much improved on defense, Saints getting Payton back, and Panthers a tough out every week. Cincy over - I think they win the AFC North. Arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. Good coaching staff. Lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Green Bay over - I think the NFC North is very weak. Questions along the offensive line, but Aaron Rodgers can mask many of those problems. I think they get 11-12 wins and run away with that division. Jacksonville under - One of the worst rosters in the league. Tough division. Major questions at QB and all over defense. Kansas City over - I really like their roster as a whole. Andy Reid a very good coach. Will be much improved. I see 9-10 wins. NY Jets under - No quarterback or skill players on offense. Only thing that would scare me is that Rex Ryan is coaching for his job moving forward. Terrible roster outside of d-line. Oakland under - They will be picking #1 in the 2014 Draft. Worst roster in the league. Best player (McFadden) can't stay healthy. Will struggle to win 3 games. San Diego under - They may not be much better than Oakland. I think Denver and Kansas City sweep both of those teams. Rivers/Gates really regressing. Little talent on D outside of Weddle. Seattle over - Maybe the best roster in the NFL. Great offensive line and defensive lines. Huge home field advantage. Another year of maturity for Russell Wilson. Maybe the NFC Super Bowl rep. and finally...... Buffalo over - BECAUSE WE'RE BACK, AMERICA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Buffalo UNDER !! look at it like insurance.....either way it goes you can be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 my gut says they put too many wins on the board, meaning unders are likely your friend.... but i didnt actually add it up, or look at the payouts really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Didn't major insist that the Bills over/under set by Vegas is 3 games. He certainly posted enough about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Didn't major insist that the Bills over/under set by Vegas is 3 games. He certainly posted enough about it. if you do the game by game spread, we were only favored in 3 i believe. not quite the same thing, though he was insistent about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Rams at 7.5 looks like a juicy under to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny33 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Okay fine people of Two Bills Drive, I decided this year I'm going to place a few bets on season wins/losses for the upcoming NFL season. I was reading Eball's post about Irsay and the Colts, and some folks were saying how the Colts are overrated and squeaked out a bunch of close games last year etc., and it got me to thinking that maybe I can get some good thoughts from the best football fans in the nation right here. I'm looking for hunches, thoughts, and gut feelings on which team you think Vegas has overestimated or underestimated. So the parentheses beside the Over and Under notates the price of the bet. For instance: the Pats over is +115, so you would take home $115 if you bet $100 and won. If you bet the under it would take $135 to win $100. If you had to pick ONE bet for all your money, which one do you like? note: I called up Hackett (stole his number from Astro's phone) and he says Take The Bills Baby ! I assume he meant the over....... ARIZONA CARDINALS Over 5.5 (+130) Under 5.5 (-150) ATLANTA FALCONS Over 10 (+110) Under 10 (-130) BALTIMORE RAVENS Over 8.5 (-140) Under 8.5 (+120) BUFFALO BILLS Over 6.5 (+115) Under 6.5 (-135) CAROLINA PANTHERS Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) CHICAGO BEARS Over 8.5 (-120) Under 8.5 (even) CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 8.5 (+110) Under 8.5 (-130) CLEVELAND BROWNS Over 6 (-130) Under 6 (+110) DALLAS COWBOYS Over 8.5 (+135) Under 8.5 (-155) DENVER BRONCOS Over 11.5 (+110) Under 11.5 (-130) DETROIT LIONS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) GREEN BAY PACKERS Over 10 (-110) Under 10 (-110) HOUSTON TEXANS Over 10 (-130) Under 10 (+110) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Over 8.5 (even) Under 8.5 (-120) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+110) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Over 7 (-145) Under 7 (+125) MIAMI DOLPHINS Over 7.5 (-135) Under 7.5 (+115) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Over 11.5 (+115) Under 11.5 (-135) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Over 9 (-120) Under 9 (even) NEW YORK GIANTS Over 9 (even) Under 9 (-120) NEW YORK JETS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) OAKLAND RAIDERS Over 5.5 (+120) Under 5.5 (-140) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) PITTSBURGH STEELERS Over 9 (-120) Under 9 (even) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Over 7.5 (+115) Under 7.5 (-135) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Over 11.5 (+105) Under 11.5 (-125) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Over 10.5 (-110) Under 10.5 (-110) ST. LOUIS RAMS Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-140) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 7.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (+120) TENNESSEE TITANS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (-110) I'll post picks for all win totals; it'll be fun to look back at this at the end of the season. I've bolded my choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchmurraydowntown Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Wait to see if a major player gets injured, then run to the computer to take the Under for as much as you can get bought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffOrange Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 The stuff about the Colts being very lucky last year is 100% true. The problem is that stuff is all built into the lines because Vegas is really smart. Bill Barnwell of Grantland has a lot of good stuff on who was lucky last yr wrt close games & fumble recoveries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Right now the only ones I like are GB and SEA both over. Because the OP said only one, probably SEA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billshank Redemption Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 (edited) I like these games the most. ARIZONA CARDINALS Over 5.5 (+130) Under 5.5 (-150) ATLANTA FALCONS Over 10 (+110) Under 10 (-130) BUFFALO BILLS Over 6.5 (+115) Under 6.5 (-135) CAROLINA PANTHERS Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 8.5 (+110) Under 8.5 (-130) DALLAS COWBOYS Over 8.5 (+135) Under 8.5 (-155) DETROIT LIONS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) GREEN BAY PACKERS Over 10 (-110) Under 10 (-110) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Over 8.5 (even) Under 8.5 (-120) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+110) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Over 11.5 (+115) Under 11.5 (-135) NEW YORK GIANTS Over 9 (even) Under 9 (-120) NEW YORK JETS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) OAKLAND RAIDERS Over 5.5 (+120) Under 5.5 (-140) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Over 7.5 (+115) Under 7.5 (-135) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Over 10.5 (-110) Under 10.5 (-110) ST. LOUIS RAMS Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-140) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 7.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (+120) TENNESSEE TITANS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (-110) I feel like these are pretty decent odds here. Not many head scratchers even on this list. NFC west is tough because its so strong and most likely one of the teams will falter. Bills/Panthers were the hardest for me on these ones. Edited August 12, 2013 by Billshank Redemption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wazzu Bill Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I like the 'Phins under 7.5...I think they will have a hard time pulling out 8 wins this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I like Jets under. I expect them to completely self destruct this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny33 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I like these games the most. ARIZONA CARDINALS Over 5.5 (+130) Under 5.5 (-150) ATLANTA FALCONS Over 10 (+110) Under 10 (-130) BUFFALO BILLS Over 6.5 (+115) Under 6.5 (-135) CAROLINA PANTHERS Over 7 (-110) Under 7 (-110) CINCINNATI BENGALS Over 8.5 (+110) Under 8.5 (-130) DALLAS COWBOYS Over 8.5 (+135) Under 8.5 (-155) DETROIT LIONS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) GREEN BAY PACKERS Over 10 (-110) Under 10 (-110) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Over 8.5 (even) Under 8.5 (-120) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS Over 5 (-130) Under 5 (+110) MINNESOTA VIKINGS Over 7.5 (-110) Under 7.5 (-110) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Over 11.5 (+115) Under 11.5 (-135) NEW YORK GIANTS Over 9 (even) Under 9 (-120) NEW YORK JETS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) OAKLAND RAIDERS Over 5.5 (+120) Under 5.5 (-140) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Over 7.5 (+115) Under 7.5 (-135) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Over 10.5 (-110) Under 10.5 (-110) ST. LOUIS RAMS Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-140) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Over 7.5 (-140) Under 7.5 (+120) TENNESSEE TITANS Over 6.5 (-110) Under 6.5 (-110) WASHINGTON REDSKINS Over 8 (-110) Under 8 (-110) I feel like these are pretty decent odds here. Not many head scratchers even on this list. NFC west is tough because its so strong and most likely one of the teams will falter. Bills/Panthers were the hardest for me on these ones. Here's my problem with your picks: you have three NFC West teams, in what is likely the league's most difficult division, over. I love the Cardinals pick- with Palmer, Fitzgerald, Bruce Arians, and a good defense, they could easily record 7-10 wins- but I doubt that you will see that many wins from three, or four, of the NFC West squads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubs Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 (edited) Awesome post and topic! Two overs: Cleveland New Orleans Two Unders: Oakland Jets If I had to take just one, I'm tempted by the overs. I think cincy is the class of the AFC north and that's about it. I think the steelers and ravens are both down this year and the Browns are improving. Might challenge for a 6th seed. Go with the browns. Edited August 13, 2013 by dubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts