Talonz Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I agree. Howard Stern is an old man trying to make a living by shocking a desensitized nation. Signing him isn't worth as much as it's cracked up to be. 202444[/snapback] I have been very curious of the "Stern Factor".... I personally don't find him nearly as funny as he was even 2 years ago. I don't think having a forum where he can use all the four letter words he wants will help either....I could be wrong... Also, is Robin leaving the program? If so, that is 2 from the original cast gone ( Jackie was the other ). Did they pay stern $50 or $500 million ? I can't remember..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I had written a paper for a business course a few years back. All the finance calculations have been good. Now let me give you a bit from the strategy and marketing side. Sirius and XM, like satellite will live and die by their subscription base and their ability to retain customers. This tie-up with several car manufacturers means a lot but ultimately may be a big let-down. Putting XM ready receivers in cars does not mean people will subscribe to the service or even maintain their subscription. The biggest investment has already been made - in the satellites which cost ~ $1.5 billion). With limited information, I had estimated that they need between 3.1 - 6.2 MM subscribers on an on-going basis simply to break-even. Problem is that I ran a variety of cases and figured that in the best case, the total subscribers of both XM and Sirius would be no more than 9.6 MM !! Ofcourse, this is just my paper and it may mean nothing. But I am fairly confident that what you saw was a stock price jump due to a mini-bubble ala the good old dotcom days. Eventually the market cooled down ... If anybody wants to read my paper, PM me and I will send a copy. 202606[/snapback] How did you come up with the 9.6MM number for TOTAL subscribers to both services? More than a few analysts see upwards of 40MM subscibers over the course of the next decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I have been very curious of the "Stern Factor".... I personally don't find him nearly as funny as he was even 2 years ago. I don't think having a forum where he can use all the four letter words he wants will help either....I could be wrong... Also, is Robin leaving the program? If so, that is 2 from the original cast gone ( Jackie was the other ). Did they pay stern $50 or $500 million ? I can't remember..... Regardless of whether you personally love him or hate him, the man has 12M listeners, a good number of who WILL follow him to Sirius, if for anything other than to just hear what he does in an uncensored format. Robin and the rest of the gang is following him there, and Martling was a nobody whose departure didn't affect the show's popularity. And the deal was $500M. Don't know why that much, but as I said, the company says it needs just 1M of his listeners to break even on the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I have been very curious of the "Stern Factor".... I personally don't find him nearly as funny as he was even 2 years ago. I don't think having a forum where he can use all the four letter words he wants will help either....I could be wrong... Also, is Robin leaving the program? If so, that is 2 from the original cast gone ( Jackie was the other ). Did they pay stern $50 or $500 million ? I can't remember..... 202622[/snapback] It is not just the 4 letter words. The FCC is cracking down on the entire industry, to the point where there are more "decency" rules than there were 5 years ago. They have to spend hours editing "best of" tapes. Robin is not leaving, and Jackie was replaced by Artie, who is funnier imo, and the contract is 5 years, 500 mil. I dont have an opinion on the stock, but the industry will grow. When Howard leaves, they will crack down on the imitators, which can be heard on virtually every station. Btw, Howard saw this latest crackdown coming. I was listening the morning after the "Janet Jackson Superbowl." He correctly stated that they would come full force after HIM because of JJ's breast. A smart man indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HopsGuy Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Also, is Robin leaving the program? If so, that is 2 from the original cast gone ( Jackie was the other ). Did they pay stern $50 or $500 million ? I can't remember..... 202622[/snapback] Robin is not leaving the show. She is going to try to do her own afternoon interview show, kinda like Ellen. Howard's deal is 5-years for $100 million. I have a short drive to work, so I'm probably not going to be a satellite subscriber. If I had a drive of over 45 minutes, I'd probably consider it. I love the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talonz Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Robin is not leaving the show. She is going to try to do her own afternoon interview show, kinda like Ellen. Howard's deal is 5-years for $100 million. I have a short drive to work, so I'm probably not going to be a satellite subscriber. If I had a drive of over 45 minutes, I'd probably consider it. I love the show. 202651[/snapback] See I think that is the same boat MANY people are in - Most people listen to Stern during their drivetime and then some can listen at their work desks at a low volume. Now with it being uncensored, you wont be able to listen to it at all in work, even if you had a portable receiver...Even worse, those who would potentially subscribe to the service might say what I am saying - For a 15 minute drive is it really worth paying $$$ for..NAH. Maybe Stern 5-10 years ago - Yes, but after the divorce..NAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 See I think that is the same boat MANY people are in - Most people listen to Stern during their drivetime and then some can listen at their work desks at a low volume. Now with it being uncensored, you wont be able to listen to it at all in work, even if you had a portable receiver...Even worse, those who would potentially subscribe to the service might say what I am saying - For a 15 minute drive is it really worth paying $$$ for..NAH. Maybe Stern 5-10 years ago - Yes, but after the divorce..NAH 202689[/snapback] Your last sentence was very interesting. Around the time of a divorce, I think he lost his edge, but he seems (imo) to have regained much of it, although the only complaint that I have with the show is when he becomes a shill for the floundering career of his girlfriend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 How did you come up with the 9.6MM number for TOTAL subscribers to both services? More than a few analysts see upwards of 40MM subscibers over the course of the next decade. 202626[/snapback] There is something called the Bass Diffusion model that can predict the technology adoption of new products. Basically, you take the total size of the market. Then look at the closest technology over the past few years and calculate some parameters for their actual adoption rate. Use these for your new case and project a curve for how many pieces you can expect to sell over the first 5-10 years of a new products life. Ofcourse, it is subject to the reference technology that you use, but I used three to see a range and ~ 10 MM was the best case. I don't know what analysts say, but my personal opinion is that all analysts are biased in one way or the other. Remember analysts were saying that the new dotcom world has fundamentally changed the way stocks are valued ? How much bull**** was that ? Basics of long-term finance will not change no matter how much short-term shocks you see. Just a reality check - total automobiles in the USA are ~ 200 million. I doubt that existing car buyers will start replacing their radios in droves. So the best case is to put them in new cars which is what both the companies are trying to do. Even after all that, the analysts expect that 20% of these cars will have subscribers to XM or Sirius year after year ? DBS is quite one thing but in-car subscriptions ? Dream on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfladave Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Remember analysts were saying that the new dotcom world has fundamentally changed the way stocks are valued ? How much bull**** was that ? Basics of long-term finance will not change no matter how much short-term shocks you see. 202751[/snapback] CNBC tried to come up with a myriad of reasons why valuations simply didn't apply anymore. My favorite was that the general public has embraced the stock market and individual stocks in particular, so the dynamics of supply vs demand were forever changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ubhockey Posted January 12, 2005 Author Share Posted January 12, 2005 Robin is not leaving the show. She is going to try to do her own afternoon interview show, kinda like Ellen. Howard's deal is 5-years for $100 million. I have a short drive to work, so I'm probably not going to be a satellite subscriber. If I had a drive of over 45 minutes, I'd probably consider it. I love the show. 202651[/snapback] The beauty with the new satelite equipment is you can record it even while you are not listening, and play back at any time. Works just like Tivo. You can save all the shows you want and playback whenever you want. I think as the equipment becomes better and easier to transfer around, people will take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 How many of you in this thread have Sirius? I do, and let me tell you, there is no way I am going back to terrestial radio. You ask any subscriber, XM or Sirius, and they'll probably say the same thing. If you want a comparison, ask yourself this, what if someone took away your Cable/DirecTV? Could you deal with only having 3-5 TV stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 How many of you in this thread have Sirius? I do, and let me tell you, there is no way I am going back to terrestial radio. You ask any subscriber, XM or Sirius, and they'll probably say the same thing. If you want a comparison, ask yourself this, what if someone took away your Cable/DirecTV? Could you deal with only having 3-5 TV stations? 202905[/snapback] Tivo is the same way for me. I also have the PVR that my cable company provides. No comparison - Tivo is WAY better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 For most, services like these are "why do I need them," but once you try them and if you can afford them, they're like "how did I live without this?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 How many of you in this thread have Sirius? I do, and let me tell you, there is no way I am going back to terrestial radio. You ask any subscriber, XM or Sirius, and they'll probably say the same thing. If you want a comparison, ask yourself this, what if someone took away your Cable/DirecTV? Could you deal with only having 3-5 TV stations? 202905[/snapback] I don't doubt it...but that has sh---all to do with the unhealthy over-valuation of Sirius' stock, even at $6/share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Jack Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 I don't doubt it...but that has sh---all to do with the unhealthy over-valuation of Sirius' stock, even at $6/share. 202952[/snapback] Maybe so, but when I bought my Sirius stock, it was with the intention of hanging onto it for 10-15 years, not selling it as soon as the price doubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 Maybe so, but when I bought my Sirius stock, it was with the intention of hanging onto it for 10-15 years, not selling it as soon as the price doubles. That's a foreign concept to some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 For most, services like these are "why do I need them," but once you try them and if you can afford them, they're like "how did I live without this?" 202949[/snapback] It's the same thing with Tivo but most people I talk to about it are still very resistive. Still, some version of it will be a regular part of our lives for the rest of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadBuffaloDisease Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 It's the same thing with Tivo but most people I talk to about it are still very resistive. Still, some version of it will be a regular part of our lives for the rest of history. I didn't see a need for it myself, initially. Then I thought "what the heck?" Now I use it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted January 12, 2005 Share Posted January 12, 2005 i just took a dump too...good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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