Kelly the Dog Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 But going back to my Dalton example, where would he be without them also taking AJ Green in the first? Maybe nowhere, maybe looking like a bust. They were much better off doing what they did, rather than taking Dalton in 1st and then some 2nd round WR. The Bills mistakes were not rating Kaep higher than Aaron W., and not having R.Wilson higher than TJ, etc.. or maybe just overvaluing Fitz. if you can't evaluate players/QB's, then ok... i guess you might want to go ahead and take 'em way early, but i also think then it really doesn't matter in that case, yer probably going to stink anyway. Oh, right. Every pick is a unique example though. No one, even now, would take Andy Dalton that high. He was the only example you used where I wouldn't even want him as my QB. He's pretty good, but not that good, and AJ, who is GREAT, makes him pretty good. He wouldn't be all that much better than Fitz on the Bills IMO. The Bills didn't necessarily evaluate Wilson wrong (outside of everyone evaluating him wrong the same, as everyone loved him as a 3rd or 4th rounder), they just made the wrong selection, deciding that a speed WR, which they desperately needed in a season they were planning to be in the playoffs, would help the team more than a backup QB which everyone including the Seahags thought of Wilson as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) What makes this year's draft very challenging for the Bills in their pursuit of a qb prospect is not the interest in them in the first round but the interest in them in the second round. There are at least four teams or more (other teams moving up in the second round) who will be honing in on the same qb prospects, So if you don't reach in the first round then there is a good probability that your wait strategy will result in your preferred qb prospect being off the board. In hindsight would it have been a bad approach if the Bills reached on a Kaepernick, Wilson, Dalton or Brees in the first round and found their franchise qb or continue on their self-defeating conventional approach of following their board and taking less important position players and ultimately lesster talented players. Go back and review who we took instead of who we could have taken. Instead of having the most important position settled we continue on this never ending quest to nowhere. If the Bills take Barkley with their first pick at the eight spot the organization is going to be lambasted by the critics. So what! It's time this archaic organization exhibited some intestinal fortitude and do what it needs to do to become a relevant franchise in the NFL. Until the qb position is staffed by a capable talent this team will continue to be irrelevant and boring. The best organizations are those that can successfully manipulate the draft to merge the player's value with the team's positional needs. Reaching on a QB at #8 "just because" the team neglected the position in prior drafts is not a sound strategy. The errors of prior drafts (and there are many) are sunk costs and should not factor into the decision-making in this year's draft. In order to rebuild this franchise, the team needs to start drafting the right way. If indeed the team believes that Nassib and/or Barkley has the tools to be a successful QB, the team should absolutely, 100% trade down to the teens or early 20's. Simply standing pat and taking Barkley/Nassib at #8, when either can be had later, would be an irresponsible use of resources. No argument here that QB is the most important position on the field. Moreover, no argument here that the team should address QB in the 2013 draft. Where I disagree fundamentally with those pushing for a QB at #8 is the notion that prior draft omissions should dictate the current draft. I expect this team to proverbially "have its cake and eat it too." Get the QB you want, at the right price and maximize the value of the pick. There is no reason the team should not be able to acquire an additional 2nd or 3rd round pick while still getting the QB it targets. These are professionals and that's what they get paid to do. Baltimore did this beautifully, when it targeted Joe Flacco and traded down when it realized that he could be had later in the first round. Knowing Buddy and the Bills, they will likely stand pat and take Barkley/Nassib at #8. That's why the Ravens are the Ravens and the Bills are the Bills. Edited April 25, 2013 by Dawgg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I have a sense of dread today. I feel the Bills are going to reach in desperation for a QB in round 1. I wish they would trade down if possible and get extra round 1 or 2 picks. Our holes are so numerous and there is so much talent at other positions of need in the 1st two rounds. Please make this team better. Kolb can take us to next year where our newly built team can grab a QB next year when there will actually be round 1 talent available. Give me a big WR (not Austin) in the first two rounds and a quality LB. A TE would be nice. Grab a developmental QB after the first two rounds if you want to gamble, since all of them are mega gambles to become a real franchise QB. All have major flaws and are projects. Be conservative and build the rest of the team of the future this year and get it done. No more gambles, no reaches, and take the closest to a sure pick on every early pick. Give me hope and don't waste yet another year rebuilding next year. BPA at positions of need at WR,TE,LB and OL in the early rounds. I don't expect the playoffs this year. I just want to see a team that is competitive every game and makes it enjoyable to root for the Bills without having to wear rose colored fan blinders. No more teams that are an outright embarrassment like the team has been for the past decade. Give me a real Franchise QB next year when one is really available in round 1 to go with the rest of the winning team built for him this year. You could not be more wrong. It's proven science that all QB's picked in the first round fly into stadiums on a majestic unicorn and have shoot laser beams from their eyes. Their cannon arms (not the metaphor, real !@#$ing cannons) and superior intelligence guarantee their success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 You could not be more wrong. It's proven science that all QB's picked in the first round fly into stadiums on a majestic unicorn and have shoot laser beams from their eyes. Their cannon arms (not the metaphor, real !@#$ing cannons) and superior intelligence guarantee their success. LOL That's what most of this board seems to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I will find it at least amusing when the Bills stroll up and take Geno Smith. If the word is the Bills love Nassib on draft day, I have to figure they like EJ Manuel. If the word is the Bills don't really like Geno Smith, I have to figure they really want him. That's my thinking. Check back in 5 minutes as it's subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bills Fan Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Not gonna be sexy, but they will take Warmack/Cooper with #8. Then best available QB in RD 2 - Nassib, Manuel, Barkley in that order. If they go with a QB at 8 it will be Nassib due to the Marrone/Hackett tie in. Austin doesn't make sense here - we have both Spiller and Graham with similar shiftiness and speed so there is no need to get yet another. When was the last time though that a top 10 QB has made a real impact besides the two slamdunk, once in a lifetime QBs of last year - Luck & RGIII? The few other QBs that that the Bills "could have" taken in the past but were passed up were all 2/3/4 rounders (Brees, Kapernick, Dalton, Wilson). There are good players to be had later. It's a crap shoot with QB honestly and I don't think that they will reach for anyone but Nassib if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Baltimore did this beautifully, when it targeted Joe Flacco and traded down when it realized that he could be had later in the first round. Knowing Buddy and the Bills, they will likely stand pat and take Barkley/Nassib at #8. That's why the Ravens are the Ravens and the Bills are the Bills. In hindsight if Flacco would have been taken with their first first round pick it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if Kaepernick would have been taken with our first round pick a couple of years ago it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if Wilson would have been taken with our first round pick last year it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if the Dalton would have been taken with our first round pick a couple of years ago it still would have been a superb pick. I'm not adverse to trading down in the first round and then making a qb selection. This is a draft when every team knows that the Bills are desperate for a qb. That certainly isn't a conducive environment to outsmart the other GMs who are well aware of who you are targeting. Trusting Nix to smartly maneuver in the draft is like trusting T.O. to manage your finances. It raises the chances for a bad outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawgg Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'm not adverse to trading down in the first round and then making a qb selection. This is a draft when every team knows that the Bills are desperate for a qb. That certainly isn't a conducive environment to outsmart the other GMs who are well aware of who you are targeting. Trusting Nix to smartly maneuver in the draft is like trusting T.O. to manage your finances. It raises the chances for a bad outcome. We are in 100% agreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 In hindsight if Flacco would have been taken with their first first round pick it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if Kaepernick would have been taken with our first round pick a couple of years ago it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if Wilson would have been taken with our first round pick last year it still would have been a superb pick. In hindsight if the Dalton would have been taken with our first round pick a couple of years ago it still would have been a superb pick. I'm not adverse to trading down in the first round and then making a qb selection. This is a draft when every team knows that the Bills are desperate for a qb. That certainly isn't a conducive environment to outsmart the other GMs who are well aware of who you are targeting. Trusting Nix to smartly maneuver in the draft is like trusting T.O. to manage your finances. It raises the chances for a bad outcome. Hindsight is a beautiful thing isn't? So if the Ravens traded back and missed out on Flacco, would that have been a smart move? Again if the Bills really like a QB in the 1st round, they would be idiots to risk moving back in order to pick up a 3rd rounder. Idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeHateMe Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I still can't get over the fact that Buddy Nix still has a job.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 No no no... Bills not picking those guys in rounds 2 or 3 was the bad move. Not taking them in round 1 was the RIGHT move. If the Bengals take Dalton in round 1, they don't get AJ Green!! And then Dalton sux and don't make the playoffs and they look stupid and draft a new QB. If SD drafts Brees in top 5, they don't get Ladanian Tomlinson... and would proceed to suck. Kaepernick in first and they don't get Aldon Smith. Those teams were smart taking QB at value spots, not for reaching, and allowing themselves to put talent around that QB. If there is THE GUY take him, but if you feel yer just taking a chance, take him in the 2nd. You could not be more wrong. It's proven science that all QB's picked in the first round fly into stadiums on a majestic unicorn and have shoot laser beams from their eyes. Their cannon arms (not the metaphor, real !@#$ing cannons) and superior intelligence guarantee their success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Got this crazy feeling that despite all of the talk of QBs sliding to the 2nd round and beyond, all the top 5 will be taken tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 (edited) Hindsight is a beautiful thing isn't? So if the Ravens traded back and missed out on Flacco, would that have been a smart move? Again if the Bills really like a QB in the 1st round, they would be idiots to risk moving back in order to pick up a 3rd rounder. Idiots. If the Bills have a strong conviction on a qb then they should simply take him. But if the Bills believe that their favored qb or qbs will be available at a lower range then I have no problem with them making the maneuver. Are there risks? Of course. But you don't take a calculated risk unless you have a fallback position. The latest rumor is that the Rams are considering trading up to the Bills spot in exchange for their two mid-level first round picks. Supposedly they like Austin. If that is the case then for sure one of the three qbs they are honing in on (Nassib, Barkley and Manuel) will be there. I would certainly snatch up that deal and walk away with a chesire cat smile. The object of the draft is to make your team better overall. If making a deal improves your roster more compared to simply making your single pick then you have to seriously consider it. Managing risks are part of the draft calculation that ever GM has to factor in when making draft decisions. If anyone is risk adverse then they shouldn't be sitting in the draft room and participating in the drafting process. Edited April 25, 2013 by JohnC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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