Drafting strategy

[Orton's Arm]

My approach to the draft would be as follows:

 

1. Barkley, QB

2. DL

3. OG

4. LB

 

I have several reasons for wanting Barkley at 8th overall.

a) The 8th overall pick represents the second-highest pick the Bills have had in the last 25 years. If you can't fill a hole at QB with a pick like that, when can you fill the hole?

b) Most draft analysts agree that Barkley has the accuracy and intangibles you want. The question with him is arm strength. Both Montana and Brady had mediocre arms and great accuracy and intangibles. While there's no guarantee Barkley will be the next Montana or Brady, I can live with his mediocre arm. So much so that I'd be happy to change my screen name!

 

As for the DL--my understanding is that this draft is rich with talent and depth along both the OL and DL. It would be a shame not to come away with part of that treasure trove. The Bills are set along most OL positions; and a good DL can be more valuable than a good OG. If the Bills were to use their second round pick on a rock-solid NT (3-4), then that would free up guys like Dareus and Kyle Williams to play DE (3-4). While I don't anticipate the Bills being in a 3-4 alignment all the time, it would be nice to have the right personnel to be in that defense some of the time. Not to mention that it's good to add good young talent to your DL on principle.

 

The OG in the third would be to replace Levitre, keep Barkley upright, and to once again tap into the silver lode of OL/DL talent in this draft.

 

I'm not necessarily wedded to picks 2 - 4. If (for example) there's a WR available in the second round who's much more talented than the best NT, it would be foolish to take the NT over the receiver. But I am wedded to the Barkley pick. It's much easier to win a Super Bowl with a franchise QB than without one. Barkley may be our best chance to obtain that franchise QB any time soon.

[simpleman]

" 8th overall pick represents the second-highest pick the Bills have had in the last 25 years. If you can't fill a hole at QB with a pick like that, when can you fill the hole?"

 

Having the 2nd highest pick in the last 25 years in a draft that has no legitimate 1st round talent is meaningless. Barkley may be a starting quality QB, but the Bills need a Franchise QB, not just a starting QB. If they take a QB in the 1st this year, it is doubtful they will also take one next year, when many believe there may be 3 or 4 legitimate possible Franchise QBs in the 1st round.

 

Beyond our #1 WR, we have almost nothing at that position. A QB can not win if he has no legitimate targets to throw to. Our needs at WR, TE and LB are just as great as our needs at QB. And this year there is real talent at WR, possibly all the way into the 3rd round. Good late 1st to 2nd round TE talent, and good 1st and 2nd round LB talent. This is the year to get our WR and LB holes filled. QB next year.

[NewEra]

My approach to the draft would be as follows:

 

1. Barkley, QB

2. DL

3. OG

4. LB

 

I have several reasons for wanting Barkley at 8th overall.

a) The 8th overall pick represents the second-highest pick the Bills have had in the last 25 years. If you can't fill a hole at QB with a pick like that, when can you fill the hole?

b) Most draft analysts agree that Barkley has the accuracy and intangibles you want. The question with him is arm strength. Both Montana and Brady had mediocre arms and great accuracy and intangibles. While there's no guarantee Barkley will be the next Montana or Brady, I can live with his mediocre arm. So much so that I'd be happy to change my screen name!

 

As for the DL--my understanding is that this draft is rich with talent and depth along both the OL and DL. It would be a shame not to come away with part of that treasure trove. The Bills are set along most OL positions; and a good DL can be more valuable than a good OG. If the Bills were to use their second round pick on a rock-solid NT (3-4), then that would free up guys like Dareus and Kyle Williams to play DE (3-4). While I don't anticipate the Bills being in a 3-4 alignment all the time, it would be nice to have the right personnel to be in that defense some of the time. Not to mention that it's good to add good young talent to your DL on principle.

 

The OG in the third would be to replace Levitre, keep Barkley upright, and to once again tap into the silver lode of OL/DL talent in this draft.

 

I'm not necessarily wedded to picks 2 - 4. If (for example) there's a WR available in the second round who's much more talented than the best NT, it would be foolish to take the NT over the receiver. But I am wedded to the Barkley pick. It's much easier to win a Super Bowl with a franchise QB than without one. Barkley may be our best chance to obtain that franchise QB any time soon.

 

In a draft littered with good WR talent in rd 2,3 and 4, we better select one in one of those rounds. Ill be dissapointed if we don't. Especially if we take a DL in rd 2 and Robert woods is on the board. I don't want to take a DL in the first 4 rds period.

[947]

Beyond our #1 WR, we have almost nothing at that position. A QB can not win if he has no legitimate targets to throw to. Our needs at WR, TE and LB are just as great as our needs at QB. And this year there is real talent at WR, possibly all the way into the 3rd round. Good late 1st to 2nd round TE talent, and good 1st and 2nd round LB talent. This is the year to get our WR and LB holes filled. QB next year.

 

I'm starting to agree with this. I think our picks in rounds 1-3 have to be WR/LB/TE in whatever order. If they are able to trade down & get an extra 2nd or late 1st, then I'd support grabbing a QB too.

 

If we trade back into the late first, I'll be pissed, because it'll kill our chances of filling 3 holes.

Edited April 17, 2013 by 947

[Orton's Arm]

Having the 2nd highest pick in the last 25 years in a draft that has no legitimate 1st round talent is meaningless. Barkley may be a starting quality QB, but the Bills need a Franchise QB, not just a starting QB. If they take a QB in the 1st this year, it is doubtful they will also take one next year, when many believe there may be 3 or 4 legitimate possible Franchise QBs in the 1st round.

 

Beyond our #1 WR, we have almost nothing at that position. A QB can not win if he has no legitimate targets to throw to. Our needs at WR, TE and LB are just as great as our needs at QB. And this year there is real talent at WR, possibly all the way into the 3rd round. Good late 1st to 2nd round TE talent, and good 1st and 2nd round LB talent. This is the year to get our WR and LB holes filled. QB next year.

 

I would have no objection to taking a WR in the second round instead of the DL. Then the draft would become:

 

1. Barkley

2. WR

3. OG

 

If your initial premise is correct--that Barkley is significantly less impressive than the QBs available in next year's draft--then I'd agree with your conclusion as well. What aspects of Barkley's game do you feel will hold him back from playing at or near a franchise level?

[JohnC]

I would have no objection to taking a WR in the second round instead of the DL. Then the draft would become:

 

1. Barkley

2. WR

3. OG

 

If your initial premise is correct--that Barkley is significantly less impressive than the QBs available in next year's draft--then I'd agree with your conclusion as well. What aspects of Barkley's game do you feel will hold him back from playing at or near a franchise level?

 

The issue with Barkley comes down to arm strength. Is he closer to a Brees type accurate and diagnostic type player or a Pennington type player, someone who is also smart but with physical limitations.

 

I'm not taking a postion here because I simply don't know. The reviews on him have been very contradictory. A couple of years ago prior to his injury he was considered a top fiver player in the draft. Last year he played on a team that was undergoing a lot of issues both on and off the field and in addition he suffered a knockout shoulder injury.

 

When Tom Brady first entered the league he was not known for his arm strength. That arm weakness seemed to improve as the seasons passed by. Can Barkley improve his arm strength? I'm not sure? A couple of years ago I watched a USC vs Stanford game. Luck was superb in that game. Barkley matched him. At the time with the realization that Luck would not be available for us when the draft came around I would have been more than happy (ecstatic) with the possibility of being able to draft Barkley.

[Bills Fan888]

I'm starting to agree with this. I think our picks in rounds 1-3 have to be WR/LB/TE in whatever order. If they are able to trade down & get an extra 2nd or late 1st, then I'd support grabbing a QB too.

 

If we trade back into the late first, I'll be pissed, because it'll kill our chances of filling 3 holes.

This is what I'd like the most although I would switch LB and WR if were picking at 8. If we trade down then I'd go WR/QB/LB/TE or QB/WR/LB/TE. The bulk or receiving talent this year is going in the late 1st, early 2nd rounds and, while you'd get you're pick at 8, there would be more worthwhile players still available.

[Uncle Joe]

When Barkley and USC beat the University of Oregon at Autzen in 2011 (38-35 4TDs) I thought he was the real deal.

Last year not so much playing behind a suspect line (ala Kolb).

I don't want him as the 8th pick. 2nd Round or later,

Also, I wouldn't mind Ertz if he is available in the 2nd.

[dave mcbride]

When Barkley and USC beat the University of Oregon at Autzen in 2011 (38-35 4TDs) I thought he was the real deal.

Last year not so much playing behind a suspect line (ala Kolb).

I don't want him as the 8th pick. 2nd Round or later,

Also, I wouldn't mind Ertz if he is available in the 2nd.

If the Bills think Barkley is the best QB in the draft and don't take him with their first pick, then they deserve the 12-loss season that they will get. Someone needs to stop the madness on this board. There is no winning in the NFL without a QB, and if you don't take a chance on one early you won't get one. It ain't rocket surgery. Take an f'in' QB at the earliest possible slot.

Edited April 17, 2013 by dave mcbride

[ganesh]

If the Bills think Barkley is the best QB in the draft and don't take him with their first pick, then they deserve the 12-loss season that they will get. Someone needs to stop the madness on this board. There is no winning in the NFL without a QB, and if you don't take a chance on one early you won't get one. It ain't rocket surgery. Take an f'in' QB at the earliest possible slot.

 

+1. And I think Barkley has got it all. The Winds of Buffalo has been so overrated for the past decade...Let us first get a QB who can get us through November and then we can talk about December. If Barkley is available @ 8, the Bills better get him.

[Happy Days Lois & Clark]

I like Barkley at 8.

Rnd 2 WR

Rnd 3 CB or Pass rusher

Rnd 4 TE

[ganesh]

I like Barkley at 8.

Rnd 2 WR

Rnd 3 CB or Pass rusher

Rnd 4 TE

 

2nd and 3rd - WR and LB...Don't care what order. This has to be a Offensive minded draft. We have spent far too much money and picks on the defensive side in the past three seasons. It is time for the coaches on that side to design plays with the current roster.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

a) The 8th overall pick represents the second-highest pick the Bills have had in the last 25 years. If you can't fill a hole at QB with a pick like that, when can you fill the hole?

 

Didn't they take Mike Williams at 4 and Dareus at 3?

[freester]

I like Barkley at 8.

Rnd 2 WR

Rnd 3 CB or Pass rusher

Rnd 4 TE

 

I agree with this except they will not take a pass rusher, it wil be a CB in the to 4 picks. Buddy seems to like Mark Anderson as OLB pass rusher

[KeisterHollow]

I could offer like 10 different draft scenarios that make sense - there are just too many holes and plenty of ways the Bills could fill them.

 

However, after listening and watching Buddy and Co., in the pre-draft luncheon, I'm inclined more than ever to think the Bills are hoping they get a shot at Barkley at 8. I think he's their guy if he falls. If not, I wouldn't be surprised if they go Nassib or Wilson.

 

But, to make the overall shape of the roster interesting, if they get that quality franchise type QB in round 1, and they are able to fill the G spot with a FA or later round pick, that would only leave WR and TE as big holes on offense. Now, Nix mentioned being high on Easley - and I still have a lot of hope for him (he's the perfect size/speed/body type for a WR) - AND, there'll be good WR's still in the 4th and 5th round (Lemon, from Syracuse, comes to mind); so, what if the Bills went TE with their 2nd pick, if a guy like Ertz was available? That would give Buffalo a great RB tandem, a good O-line, Stevie, a stud TE, and then Easley, Graham, and a later round WR with good size/speed/hands. That could be a very good offense - and even if it isn't elite, it could be a lot like the Falcon's offense before they got Julio Jones - in other words, good, but maybe not great. Still, it'd be a far cry from inept.

 

That would free us up to take a good LB in the 3rd - or to move up a bit to get one of the better ILB prospects, and we could spend the 4-6 round picks on WR, G, CB, or WR, OLB, CB. Still, that could shape up to be a very decent draft for us, and give us enough talent and competition across the board to compete with the wild-card teams in the AFC.

[Brainiac21]

i'd be shocked if they went DLine if first 3 picks. the only D i could see in that range is a CB in rd 2 or 3. maybe if Dion Jordan fell, then maybe.

 

QB, WR, CB, and TE seem the highest on their list after the luncheon. they didn't give away anything about OT, but i'd guess no. and to narrow it down further, QB and WR both first rd possibilities, QB/WR/CB 2nd rd, and WR/CB/TE 3rd rd.

 

i'm also skeptical they liked Barkley that much, i think people are overlooking some subtleties mentioned that they doubt him some. i'd say Nassib, Wilson, and maybe Geno.

[Orton's Arm]

Didn't they take Mike Williams at 4 and Dareus at 3?

You are right, and I stand corrected.

 

I could offer like 10 different draft scenarios that make sense - there are just too many holes and plenty of ways the Bills could fill them.

 

However, after listening and watching Buddy and Co., in the pre-draft luncheon, I'm inclined more than ever to think the Bills are hoping they get a shot at Barkley at 8. I think he's their guy if he falls. If not, I wouldn't be surprised if they go Nassib or Wilson.

 

But, to make the overall shape of the roster interesting, if they get that quality franchise type QB in round 1, and they are able to fill the G spot with a FA or later round pick, that would only leave WR and TE as big holes on offense. Now, Nix mentioned being high on Easley - and I still have a lot of hope for him (he's the perfect size/speed/body type for a WR) - AND, there'll be good WR's still in the 4th and 5th round (Lemon, from Syracuse, comes to mind); so, what if the Bills went TE with their 2nd pick, if a guy like Ertz was available? That would give Buffalo a great RB tandem, a good O-line, Stevie, a stud TE, and then Easley, Graham, and a later round WR with good size/speed/hands. That could be a very good offense - and even if it isn't elite, it could be a lot like the Falcon's offense before they got Julio Jones - in other words, good, but maybe not great. Still, it'd be a far cry from inept.

 

That would free us up to take a good LB in the 3rd - or to move up a bit to get one of the better ILB prospects, and we could spend the 4-6 round picks on WR, G, CB, or WR, OLB, CB. Still, that could shape up to be a very decent draft for us, and give us enough talent and competition across the board to compete with the wild-card teams in the AFC.

I like your thinking. Barkley at #8, a very good TE in the 2nd, and a solid addition to the LB corps in the third would make a ton of sense.

 

The issue with Barkley comes down to arm strength. Is he closer to a Brees type accurate and diagnostic type player or a Pennington type player, someone who is also smart but with physical limitations.

 

I'm not taking a postion here because I simply don't know. The reviews on him have been very contradictory. A couple of years ago prior to his injury he was considered a top fiver player in the draft. Last year he played on a team that was undergoing a lot of issues both on and off the field and in addition he suffered a knockout shoulder injury.

 

When Tom Brady first entered the league he was not known for his arm strength. That arm weakness seemed to improve as the seasons passed by. Can Barkley improve his arm strength? I'm not sure? A couple of years ago I watched a USC vs Stanford game. Luck was superb in that game. Barkley matched him. At the time with the realization that Luck would not be available for us when the draft came around I would have been more than happy (ecstatic) with the possibility of being able to draft Barkley.

 

I agree with the meta-message of your post. If a QB's arm strength falls below a certain minimum threshold, then all his other positive attributes become progressively less relevant. Holcomb is a good example of that.

 

My sense is that Barkley's arm is considerably stronger than Holcomb's. But I agree with you that this is something they need to pay attention to.