How the top of the draft shakes out

[Hapless Bills Fan]

SMITH OR BARKLEY AT #8.... You can't thumb you nose at the top 2 QBs in the draft...

 

Well, you can, actually, if you don't think they're worth it.

 

Look back to 2010. There was a lot of pre-draft hype about McCoy and Clausen, with some draft pundits positing Clausen as the top QB in the draft and varied opinions about McCoy.

Much surprise on draft day when Clausen slid to the 2nd round and McCoy to the 3rd. Bradford despite the injuries and limited experience went #1 overall.

 

None of the 3 has done much so far, and then there was Tebow.

[KeisterHollow]

There are a handful of guys I'd be more than happy with Buffalo taking in the first round. If it is a QB, I'd like Barkley. But if the staff thinks Manuel is better, then I'd be fine with that pick, too. I'd love Dion Jordan - as I think he'll have a monster career. The reason I'm so high on Ansah is because the kid is very smart - and he's a freak, physically. He's only played football for 3 years, which means when he's given the chance to play FULL TIME, with NFL caliber coaching, he WILL ONLY GET BETTER. When you consider he's already been dominant against the best competition in college (senior bowl), you've got to get a little giddy anticipating just how good he'll be. Add to that he's got the frame and speed to play BOTH DE and OLB, and he's just an amazing fit for our scheme.

 

Anyway, I could justify and agree with Buffalo taking any of the top 3 tackles, the top CB, Dion Jordan or Ansah, Ogletree (if they think he's enough of an impact player) Barkley or Manuel, Lotutuli, or Patterson (again, if they're convinced he'll be as productive as AJ Green or Julio Jones). If Buffalo can manage to trade down to the middle or twenties, in round 1, then there's an even bigger number of acceptable players - including Warmack, Nassib, Hunter, Jarvis Jones... it really just depends on what Buffalo's strategy is in this draft. If they play their cards right there's no reason to believe they can't come away from the first 4 rounds with starters - they just have to know where the value is in each round. I'm hoping Marrone's familiarity with the college ranks helps us find quality starters later in the draft, and even into UDFA.

[1B4IDie]

Since we’re less than 4 weeks away from the draft, I decided now would be a good time to take a practical look at how the top of the draft shakes out, and how it might affect the Bills’ selection at No. 8 overall.

 

First Things First

 

Before I get into too much discussion, I want to make a few things clear:

 

- I’m not projecting trades, since nobody knows what could happen

- I’m basing my valuation of prospects on both (a) what I’ve read from various analysts, and (b) contacts I have in the scouting community, so if you’re opinion differs from mine, you’ll have to take the resulting analysis with a grain of salt

- The below is not necessarily what I want to occur, but what I firmly believe will happen on draft day

 

Okay, that said, let’s get started looking at how the top of the draft is likely to shake out, and the resultant affect on Buffalo’s draft choice.

 

The Top Crop

 

Every year, there exists a top tier of prospects. Usually, this group is comprised of anywhere from 4 to 6 players, that are assuredly going to comprise the first 4-6 picks, in some indiscernible order. For example, last year, we knew that the top 6 prospects were Luck, Griffin, Richardson, Blackmon, Kalil, and Claiborne. These guys were going in the top 6 picks, for certain, in some order. The year prior, the top 5 picks were certain to be Newton, Miller, Dareus, Green, and Peterson, in some order. I’m sure you get the picture.

 

This year, the top crop of prospects consists of 5 players:

 

Luke Joeckel – OT/Texas A&M

Sharrif Floyd – DT/Forida

Erik Fisher – OT/Central Michigan

Dion Jordan – DE/Oregon

Dee Milliner – CB/Alabama

 

Now, this year is a bit different, in that there isn’t a QB among the top 6. However, given the premium placed on the position, and the fact that 4 of the teams drafting in the top 6 have questions at QB, the top crop has to be expanded to include the top QB prospect, Geno Smith of West Virginia.

 

Taking the above into account, it’s safe to assume that the top 6 picks will include the above players, in some order. My guess: 1) Joeckel to KC, 2) Smith to Jax, 3) Floyd to Oak, 4) Fisher to Phi, 5) Jordan to Det, 6) Milliner to Cle. No matter how it falls out, to examine Buffalo’s likely draft scenarios it makes sense to assume that the above 6 players are out of the equation.

 

The Cardinal Question

 

Barring a trade up, as far as Buffalo is concerned, the draft begins with Arizona’s pick at No. 7 overall. Assuming that they stay put and make this pick, Buffalo’s options will be largely affected by what the Cardinals do with their selection.

 

There are a few things to take into account here, namely: (a) who are the top prospects remaining? (b) what offers the greatest positional value for the team? © where does need fit into the picture?

 

Examining the above, I came up with 2, and only 2 options for the Cardinals: QB and OL. This leaves only 3 players as likely draft options:

 

Matt Barkley – QB/USC

Chance Warmack – OG/Alabama

Lane Johnson – OT/Oklahoma

 

Right off the bat, I dismissed Barkley, as I don’t feel he fits as a value pick at No. 8. That leaves either of the two linemen. Although I would normally gravitate toward Johnson, I went with Warmack for 2 reasons: (1) he has been regarded by a number of analysts and scouts as the top overall talent in the draft, which makes him worthy of a top 10 pick, (2) he has more experience as a starting OLmen than Johnson.

 

How Buffalo Responds

 

For this section, I broke out Buffalo’s draft choice into four options, and assigned a confidence interval to each.

 

Option 1 – The Quarterback (20%)

 

Under this scenario, the team determines that this the time to make their move on a potential franchise QB. The primary suspect would be the aforementioned Barkley, but it would be impractical—under this option—to rule out a beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder selection like Florida State’s E.J. Manuel or Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib.

 

In the end, however, I think value wins out, and QB won’t be the choice. Accordingly, I believe there is a 20% chance that this is the direction Nix and Co. go with the No. 8 pick.

 

Option 2 – Offensive Line (25%)

 

We already discussed the possibility of Lane Johnson going 7^th overall to Arizona, so it would be prudent to discuss his potential for coming off the board at Buffalo’s pick. If the powers that be decide that Johnson is too good to pass up, they may take him. It would give them a whole host of options along the OL, including: starting Johnson out at RT, starting Johnson at LT and kicking Glenn inside to LG to replace Levitre, starting Johnson at LT and swapping Glenn to RT, etc. Any way you slice it, the whole line gets stronger.

 

Given, however, that Nix has shown a propensity and preference for getting post-first-round value along the line (save for Eric Wood), I don’t put a lot of confidence in this being the choice. Call it a 25% chance.

 

Option 3 – Impact Defender (45%)

 

In my opinion, this is where value and need collide. Looking at the remaining prospects, the top talents are:

 

Lane Johnson – OT/Oklahoma

Star Lotulelei – DT/Utah

Jarvis Jones – LB/Georgia

Ezekiel Ansah – LB-DE/BYU

Barkevious Mingo – LB/LSU

 

We already included Johnson’s chances above, so this option basically comes down to Buffalo picking their favorite of the above. What I really like about this group of players is that they all can do multiple things from multiple fronts. Star is a strong presence up front, and can play 1 or 3 technique in a 4-man front, while being strong enough to anchor as a 0 in a 3-4. The 3 LBs are all extremely athletic and excellent pass rushers that show the ability to play OLB in either alignment, as well as to rush the passer as down linemen when asked to do so.

 

Given that the team usually drafts for value, and has a crying need for impact defenders in the front 7, I put his option at 45% likely.

 

Option 4 – Offensive Weapon (10%)

 

Buddy Nix keeps stating that he wants a big WR, so if he’s truly intrigued by either Tennessee’s Cordarelle Patterson or Cal’s Keenan Allen, he may go that route. However, with the relative depth of the WR class, and the perceived lack of value at the No. 8 slot, I put it at no better than a 10% chance that WR is the pick.

 

 

 

In my opinion, the above is how you can expect to see things unfold on April 25^th. I would like to use this as an opening for discussion regarding what you’d like to see happen under the above scenario. Also, please feel free to agree, disagree, etc. and provide alternative scenarios for discussion.

 

The end.

Outstanding post.

 

I think this sums up my assessment of the 2013 draft.

 

Its interesting that the national media and draftniks all link Buffalo to O-Line or QB. I believe Impact Pash Rusher is the Top Target of the Bills and Pettine's Defense.

 

If Dion Jordan somehow fell out of the Top 7(I doubt it) and Geno Smith were there. The Bills would still take Dion Jordan; not Enough to tradeup but that is my opinion.

 

In years past you can see teams trading up for certain players (Griffin Claiborn, Julio Jones)

 

Beside the Top 6 you pointed out do you see any players that teams may covet enough to trade up to draft?

Lane Johnson – OT/Oklahoma

Star Lotulelei – DT/Utah

Jarvis Jones – LB/Georgia

Ezekiel Ansah – LB-DE/BYU

Barkevious Mingo – LB/LSU

 

Johnson? or Lotulelei?

Edited April 2, 2013 by Why So Serious?

[thebandit27]

Outstanding post.

 

I think this sums up my assessment of the 2013 draft.

 

Its interesting that the national media and draftniks all link Buffalo to O-Line or QB. I believe Impact Pash Rusher is the Top Target of the Bills and Pettine's Defense.

 

If Dion Jordan somehow fell out of the Top 7(I doubt it) and Geno Smith were there. The Bills would still take Dion Jordan; not Enough to tradeup but that is my opinion.

 

In years past you can see teams trading up for certain players (Griffin Claiborn, Julio Jones)

 

Beside the Top 6 you pointed out do you see any players that teams may covet enough to trade up to draft?

Lane Johnson – OT/Oklahoma

Star Lotulelei – DT/Utah

Jarvis Jones – LB/Georgia

Ezekiel Ansah – LB-DE/BYU

Barkevious Mingo – LB/LSU

 

Johnson? or Lotulelei?

 

Maybe a team wants a LT and would move up for Lane Johnson. It would likely be a team like San Diego, Miami, or New Orleans, although there would have to be the threat of someone in the top 10 drafting that guy, and I'm not sure it's there past Buffalo.

 

The other chance would be if a team wants a pass rusher and believes that Ansah is an elite talent. Perhaps someone like Tennessee or Miami gets nervous that they're going to lose Ansah to the Jets and makes a move.

 

It's unlikely IMO.

[Coach Tuesday]

Excellent analysis.

 

It's nitpicking, but I would have to imagine that Philadelphia and Detroit's picks would be reversed, that is, Philly would take Jordan (whom Kelly coached), instead of Fischer (where they already have Peters, who reportedly is back to 100%), and Detroit would take Fischer to replace Backus.

 

Otherwise I think you've nailed it. I agree with SJBF that Manuel may be a guy they are seriously considering at 8. They like him, and there are reports that he may go top-15. I think they're debating whether to pull the trigger on Manuel at 8 or go with Jarvis Jones or Mingo.

[thebandit27]

Excellent analysis.

 

It's nitpicking, but I would have to imagine that Philadelphia and Detroit's picks would be reversed, that is, Philly would take Jordan (whom Kelly coached), instead of Fischer (where they already have Peters, who reportedly is back to 100%), and Detroit would take Fischer to replace Backus.

 

 

I could easily see the Fischer and Jordan picks flip-flopping. I guess I looked at the Eagles' roster and figured that (1) they are pretty deep at OLB in Cole, Barwin, & Graham, (2) they've been absolutely obliterated on the OL by injuries, especially at OT, and (3) they need more athletic OLmen to run Kelly's up-tempo offense...that's how I ended up with Fischer at 4 and not Jordan. I absolutely buy that Jordan could go there, and agree that Fischer would be the Lions' choice at 5 if that happens.

 

Otherwise I think you've nailed it. I agree with SJBF that Manuel may be a guy they are seriously considering at 8. They like him, and there are reports that he may go top-15. I think they're debating whether to pull the trigger on Manuel at 8 or go with Jarvis Jones or Mingo.

 

Agreed on all fronts...thanks for the comments.

[bananathumb]

Certainly appreciate the kind words.

 

The only way I see a trade down happening would be if one of the top 6 falls to our pick, and it's a guy we don't really love. Maybe Milliner, for instance, falls to No. 8 in favor of an upside guy like Ansah. Then, a team like Miami or Minnesota that's desperate for a CB makes you an offer. It's doubtful, but it could happen.

 

The other possibility is that a team like San Diego, that's desperate for a LT, worries that another team (Miami or New Orleans?) could leapfrog them and get Lane Johnson, so they make an offer.

 

Again though, I don't see either of those things happening.

 

If all the QBs, especially Smith, are still available at 8, do you feel - as I do - that Nix will feel big time pressure to take one and, if so, which one? Personally, I see more potential in Manuel than anyone, but they'll go with their fav QB given this scenario.

[thebandit27]

If all the QBs, especially Smith, are still available at 8, do you feel - as I do - that Nix will feel big time pressure to take one and, if so, which one? Personally, I see more potential in Manuel than anyone, but they'll go with their fav QB given this scenario.

 

If anything, I think it would be the opposite. Based on Nix's comments, he's under the impression that you may have to "over-draft" your QB in order to get him, as teams realize how valuable the position is, to the point where guys go earlier than you might expect them to (i.e. Christian Ponder and Brandon Weeden). This leads me to believe that--if all the QBs were still on the board--he's more likely to pass on a signal caller at 8 than if, say, both Smith and Barkley are selected before Buffalo is on the clock.

 

The greater # of QBs that leave the board prior to Buffalo's pick, the more likely they are to feel the need to take their guy at 8...at least in my opinion.

 

However, I don't believe that's successful thinking...I think you have a draft board, and you stick to it. If the value isn't there, don't make the pick...but that's just me.

[eball]

However, I don't believe that's successful thinking...I think you have a draft board, and you stick to it. If the value isn't there, don't make the pick...but that's just me.

 

For any position other than QB I agree. If the Bills have narrowed the field down to one or two guys they truly believe can be the Bills' next "franchise" QB, they have to get him regardless of "value" or what the pundits think.

[thebandit27]

For any position other than QB I agree. If the Bills have narrowed the field down to one or two guys they truly believe can be the Bills' next "franchise" QB, they have to get him regardless of "value" or what the pundits think.

 

Indeed...I didn't necessarily mean they have to stick to the perceived value of a player, but rather that they should be convicted enough in their plan such that no other team's draft maneuver adversely affects their approach.

 

Or, in simpler terms, don't panic on draft day.

[eball]

Indeed...I didn't necessarily mean they have to stick to the perceived value of a player, but rather that they should be convicted enough in their plan such that no other team's draft maneuver adversely affects their approach.

 

Or, in simpler terms, don't panic on draft day.

 

Truer words were never spoken.

[thebandit27]

Truer words were never spoken.

 

Disagree:

 

Don't ever forget to wash your hands after using Icy Hot

[thebandit27]

There are a handful of guys I'd be more than happy with Buffalo taking in the first round. If it is a QB, I'd like Barkley. But if the staff thinks Manuel is better, then I'd be fine with that pick, too. I'd love Dion Jordan - as I think he'll have a monster career. The reason I'm so high on Ansah is because the kid is very smart - and he's a freak, physically. He's only played football for 3 years, which means when he's given the chance to play FULL TIME, with NFL caliber coaching, he WILL ONLY GET BETTER. When you consider he's already been dominant against the best competition in college (senior bowl), you've got to get a little giddy anticipating just how good he'll be. Add to that he's got the frame and speed to play BOTH DE and OLB, and he's just an amazing fit for our scheme.

 

Anyway, I could justify and agree with Buffalo taking any of the top 3 tackles, the top CB, Dion Jordan or Ansah, Ogletree (if they think he's enough of an impact player) Barkley or Manuel, Lotutuli, or Patterson (again, if they're convinced he'll be as productive as AJ Green or Julio Jones). If Buffalo can manage to trade down to the middle or twenties, in round 1, then there's an even bigger number of acceptable players - including Warmack, Nassib, Hunter, Jarvis Jones... it really just depends on what Buffalo's strategy is in this draft. If they play their cards right there's no reason to believe they can't come away from the first 4 rounds with starters - they just have to know where the value is in each round. I'm hoping Marrone's familiarity with the college ranks helps us find quality starters later in the draft, and even into UDFA.

 

I'm afraid I missed this comment...

 

The point regarding Marrone's familiarity with college players is something I hadn't really considered much. Now that I think about it, there may be some advantage to it; my only thought is that it's a relatively small sample size with regard to the conferences that typically produce the most NFL talent (i.e. SEC, B1G, PAC 12, Big 12).

 

Still though...could make a difference.

[chris heff]

 

 

For any position other than QB I agree. If the Bills have narrowed the field down to one or two guys they truly believe can be the Bills' next "franchise" QB, they have to get him regardless of "value" or what the pundits think.

Are you and I the only people that get this? Based on recent trades the Bills will now be able to take either the first or second QB in the draft. If the guy turns out not to be the guy it is not as big a deal as it use to be, because of the rookie salary cap.

[1B4IDie]

Are you and I the only people that get this? Based on recent trades the Bills will now be able to take either the first or second QB in the draft. If the guy turns out not to be the guy it is not as big a deal as it use to be, because of the rookie salary cap.

The greater issue, is it is very unlikely and not just pundit draftnik talk that any of these guys would evaluate out as a "Franchise QB."

 

So I agree whole heartily if there is a guy that you think can be your Franchise QB you take him at #8 overall. No question. No debate about value.

 

This franchise hasn't taken a QB with their first pick of the first round in the HISTORY of the FRANCHISE (Kelly and LOSSman were both the second pick the Bills had in the first round).

 

The fact is these dudes all look like a bunch of duds. Maybe a few of them surprise but right now going into the draft it would be hard to believe any of them would be graded by the Buffalo Bills as a "franchise QB."

Buddy Nix pretty much alluded to that fact in his tapped conversation with the TB GM "Its a bad year to need one (QB)."

Edited April 3, 2013 by Why So Serious?

[Billshank Redemption]

Great post OP, I guess right now I am at the point where if Geno Is there you take him. I dont know how good he will be etc, but if you think he has over a 50% chance of being THE guy long term you take him and never look back, if not things get interesting and I just personally dont see the value there unless maybe you take lane johnson and then move glenn to G. Jarvis Jones is supposedly in for quite the fall so i dont think he is included with the top prospects anymore. So if Geno and Lane arent there I think you try to move down to atleast the teens and try to pick up maybe a 2 or even 3 and then grab cordarelle patterson or allen and then get your qb in the 2nd.

 

Just my 2 cents.

[simpleman]

SMITH OR BARKLEY AT #8.... You can't thumb you nose at the top 2 QBs in the draft...

Thumbs nose

You can when the top two QBs are actually 2nd round maximum talent in a draft full of extremely questionable and mediocre QB talent.

[thebandit27]

Thumbs nose

You can when the top two QBs are actually 2nd round maximum talent in a draft full of extremely questionable and mediocre QB talent.

 

My thoughts exactly

[KeisterHollow]

I didn't think the Bills had Nassib high on their QB list - that was because I saw his accuracy issues as being exacerbated in the NFL - but something occured to me the other day. I was recalling Marrone's reasoning for hiring some of the offensive guys he hired, and the special teams coach. He said he wanted guys who were familiar with his terminology, so that he didn't have to spend the offseason getting the coaches up to speed. That's how badly he wanted to hit the ground running. He doesn't want this year to be a wasted, losing season like so many 1st year H.C.'s experience.

 

Well, if you apply that same logic to the players they draft all of a sudden Nassib has a much higher value than if he were from another program. His familiarity with Marrone's / Hackett's system would allow him to come right in and actually help teach the other players. With that in mind I'd be a lot less surprised if they draft Nassib than I would have been a week ago.

 

As for drafting a QB with their first pick regardless of what the "pundits" say - I believe Nix and Co. will have all the players rated on a sort of numerical system, and I'm guessing they'll add about a half round worth of points, or value, to the QB's. That way they'll account for the need to draft them early - as Nix has pointed out - but can still remain true to their board.

 

An example: Say they have Dion Jordan rated an 88, and Barkley as rated an 83. Now, lets say they add that half round to each QB, giving Barkley, say, an 88. If they're looking at two equally graded guys, my guess is they go QB because of the position's value. Anyway, you get my point. It'd be a way for them to still remain true to a board.

[smapdi]

Excellent write up.

 

I am leaning towards "impact defender" myself. As you said, that is where need and value collide IMO. Dion Jordan would be my first choice but I highly doubt he makes it out of the top 5. That leaves Jarvis Jones, Ezkiel Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo. All 3 seem like great prospects but I can't ignore Jones dominance in the SEC. Neither can Buddy.

 

Yes, Jones 40 time was less then impressive but when you put on the tape, he plays much faster. I personally feel on-field production trumps workout numbers every day of the week. Especially when that production comes in the top conference in all of college football. There is no question that LB is our weakest link on defense. We had the 30th ranked run defense.. We need some talent to plug in from day 1. Jarvis Jones will be a beast from day 1. He is a perfect fit for our new "hybrid" d. He would also a provide us with that elusive outside pass rusher which is the key to making a 3-4 defense work.

 

Between Jones and Lawson, our pass rush should elevate itself to an elite unit. Being able to send Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Manny Lawson, and Jarvis Jones after the QB will be a nightmare for OC's to prepare for.