How the top of the draft shakes out

[Maddog69]

Good write up. Lots of great analysis. I would personally disagree with your preference. I would reduce the OL preference to almost Zero and increase the WR preference. I am hoping for an impact WR or LB at 8.

[thebandit27]

I didn't think the Bills had Nassib high on their QB list - that was because I saw his accuracy issues as being exacerbated in the NFL - but something occured to me the other day. I was recalling Marrone's reasoning for hiring some of the offensive guys he hired, and the special teams coach. He said he wanted guys who were familiar with his terminology, so that he didn't have to spend the offseason getting the coaches up to speed. That's how badly he wanted to hit the ground running. He doesn't want this year to be a wasted, losing season like so many 1st year H.C.'s experience.

 

Well, if you apply that same logic to the players they draft all of a sudden Nassib has a much higher value than if he were from another program. His familiarity with Marrone's / Hackett's system would allow him to come right in and actually help teach the other players. With that in mind I'd be a lot less surprised if they draft Nassib than I would have been a week ago.

 

As for drafting a QB with their first pick regardless of what the "pundits" say - I believe Nix and Co. will have all the players rated on a sort of numerical system, and I'm guessing they'll add about a half round worth of points, or value, to the QB's. That way they'll account for the need to draft them early - as Nix has pointed out - but can still remain true to their board.

 

An example: Say they have Dion Jordan rated an 88, and Barkley as rated an 83. Now, lets say they add that half round to each QB, giving Barkley, say, an 88. If they're looking at two equally graded guys, my guess is they go QB because of the position's value. Anyway, you get my point. It'd be a way for them to still remain true to a board.

 

I would find that approach...interesting...

 

Excellent write up.

 

I am leaning towards "impact defender" myself. As you said, that is where need and value collide IMO. Dion Jordan would be my first choice but I highly doubt he makes it out of the top 5. That leaves Jarvis Jones, Ezkiel Ansah, and Barkevious Mingo. All 3 seem like great prospects but I can't ignore Jones dominance in the SEC. Neither can Buddy.

 

Yes, Jones 40 time was less then impressive but when you put on the tape, he plays much faster. I personally feel on-field production trumps workout numbers every day of the week. Especially when that production comes in the top conference in all of college football. There is no question that LB is our weakest link on defense. We had the 30th ranked run defense.. We need some talent to plug in from day 1. Jarvis Jones will be a beast from day 1. He is a perfect fit for our new "hybrid" d. He would also a provide us with that elusive outside pass rusher which is the key to making a 3-4 defense work.

 

Between Jones and Lawson, our pass rush should elevate itself to an elite unit. Being able to send Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Manny Lawson, and Jarvis Jones after the QB will be a nightmare for OC's to prepare for.

 

Pretty much exactly how I feel, although I'd love to know what Jones' 10-yard split was on his 40 time...to me, that'd be much more telling

[Trader]

There are a handful of guys I'd be more than happy with Buffalo taking in the first round. If it is a QB, I'd like Barkley. But if the staff thinks Manuel is better, then I'd be fine with that pick, too. I'd love Dion Jordan - as I think he'll have a monster career. The reason I'm so high on Ansah is because the kid is very smart - and he's a freak, physically. He's only played football for 3 years, which means when he's given the chance to play FULL TIME, with NFL caliber coaching, he WILL ONLY GET BETTER. When you consider he's already been dominant against the best competition in college (senior bowl), you've got to get a little giddy anticipating just how good he'll be. Add to that he's got the frame and speed to play BOTH DE and OLB, and he's just an amazing fit for our scheme.

 

Anyway, I could justify and agree with Buffalo taking any of the top 3 tackles, the top CB, Dion Jordan or Ansah, Ogletree (if they think he's enough of an impact player) Barkley or Manuel, Lotutuli, or Patterson (again, if they're convinced he'll be as productive as AJ Green or Julio Jones). If Buffalo can manage to trade down to the middle or twenties, in round 1, then there's an even bigger number of acceptable players - including Warmack, Nassib, Hunter, Jarvis Jones... it really just depends on what Buffalo's strategy is in this draft. If they play their cards right there's no reason to believe they can't come away from the first 4 rounds with starters - they just have to know where the value is in each round. I'm hoping Marrone's familiarity with the college ranks helps us find quality starters later in the draft, and even into UDFA.

 

Overall i like your logic except for Barkley, i do not like Barkley's lack of arm strength here, i see him as a fit in AZ If you have to ram a QB down my throat at # 8 then it would be EJ.

 

I think the Bills need to make a sincere effort to trade down. Failing that, (they usually do) I like the O linemen best in this draft. Johnson from Oklahoma would be my preference. His athleticisim gives you all kinds of options (including tackle eligible receiver in the red zone/short yardage) he is a future all pro candidate, after him I like Warmack (also an all pro potential candidate and a real mauler) and then the linebackers. The other highly rated guard might be a better athlete than Warmack but I think he is a more finesse type (finesse seems inappropriate for a guard but you know what I mean) Warmack just rips the guy in front of him the idea of Spiller running behind him has my imagination running wild. One big bang and then gone.. recalling the OJ years a bit. I think when you have an opportunity to draft an all pro type you have to do it or trade out of the slot if you do not need that guy. I especially do not want to hear, " the you need a trading partner excuse", that is pure bull. There were all kinds of trades last year. There is always a deal to be done but you have to have courage and conviction to do it. You have to know when your asking price is out of line or when you need more options, you have to work at it.

[thebandit27]

Good write up. Lots of great analysis. I would personally disagree with your preference. I would reduce the OL preference to almost Zero and increase the WR preference. I am hoping for an impact WR or LB at 8.

 

Thanks...just want to clear one thing up: the percentages aren't my preference, they're my estimated likelihood of that position group being the Bills' selection at No. 8.