one of the problems with Nix's drafting-Southern players only

[BuffOrange]

Easy to say "guys he missed on" in retrospect - why do you not list all of the players who will be missed on day one after draft if you are so good at projecting the future rather than reading box scores after they have occurred.

It is but there are a lot of people on this board that hated the Troup and Williams picks when they were made not just in retrospect

That's true, but even if folks here loved the picks when they were made made, they still have the right to criticize the Bills for making them if they bust. "In retrospect" is the only way to evaluate a GM. GM's are paid to be smarter than the fans and, more importantly, smarter than other GMs. No matter how "popular" a GM's picks were on draft day, if they can't play on Sunday, he will (and should be) fired, at least in organizations that maintain accountability.

 

Exactly. Those complaining about retrospect are also complaining about criticism on draft day "These grades are stupid; we won't know until 4yrs from now!".

Yawn. Basically it's never ok to criticize a GM who actually gets paid and has infinitely more resources than fans.

[BuffBill]

Clearly, the Bills' drafts under Nix haven't been great, although they've landed some decent players. I've long said that he focuses almost exclusively on states that lost in the Civil War (except for a couple of very minor exceptions): SEC, ACC, and Texas. But I also thought about the guys he missed on.

 

He took TJ Graham (NC State) rather than Wisconsin's Russell Wilson. He took Aaron Williams rather than Nevada's Colin Caepernick. He took Central Florida's Torrell Troup rather than Arizona's Rob Gronkowski.

 

Then I looked at the record: http://www.pro-footb.../buf/draft.htm.

 

2012 - one guy who was not from the South, and that player was drafted in the 6th round.

 

2011 - every player was from the South

 

2010 - rounds 1-3 were from the South; a 4th rounder, a sixth rounder, and 1 out of 2 seventh rounders were not from the South.

 

Over three years and 27 picks, the Bills have taken 4 players who were not from states that lost in the Civil war - 14.8 percent. He has not drafted one non-South guy before round 4. The CSA had 11 states. The remaining 39 states were not in the Confederacy. (A quick note - Jasper played for a southern school that isn't listed here (Bethel College in TN), and Williams played for Texas, not North Texas.)

 

I get that there are good players in the South. That's obvious. But good football players come from everywhere. The only schools he has drafted from outside the former CSA are Iowa, South Dakota, Oregon, and Connecticut (again, all late round picks). He hasn't drafted anyone who went to school in California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc.

 

The evidence seems clear -- the guy has a comfort zone that he is unable to move out of. At the risk of sounding ageist, that's not atypical of people in their seventies. The Bills need someone more open minded than this.

I agree Nix hasn't been very good at all in drafting. One really good player (Spiller), and he didn't produce too much his first two seasons, and was unarguably a luxury pick. The draft isn't the only area that Nix has been bad in though, this team is going to pay for the ill fated contract extension they gave Fitz, no matter what they do with him over the next day or two. Not sure how he still has his job to be honest, his drafting and contracts have backed this organization into a corner, and retained the ongoing, mediocrity at best. As far as only drafting from the South, have you heard him speak? Maybe those are the only ones he can understand?

 

Exactly. Those complaining about retrospect are also complaining about criticism on draft day "These grades are stupid; we won't know until 4yrs from now!".

Yawn. Basically it's never ok to criticize a GM who actually gets paid and has infinitely more resources than fans.

Being a fan gives you the right to criticize if you want? Not sure what you mean in "It's never OK to criticize a GM?". When they have screwed up like Nix has, he needs to be criticized. NFL is an entertainment product, we are the customers, we have a right to complain or criticize, it is their job to improve, and they haven't in a long time, and probably won't under Nix.

[NFLBighits]

The league has changed and nix hasn't so I'd say the game has quitely went by him a tad !

[peterpan]

SD will match.....

 

They are going to let the market dictate his compensation, so unless we massively overpay SD is not letting him walk. EVERYONE KNOWS THIS

 

Not to mention the guy hasn't played a full season yet and has knee issues to be concerned about.

 

You could pull some BS move like the Seahawks did with Hutchinsen so that SD can't sign him

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Mabuh he's just a lazy southerner who doesn't do his homework and likes to flap-jaw with his good-old boys about things in the world they done seen. Mabuh none of 'em ever gets outs of da souf. How dey sappos' ta know 'bout some odah playahs in dem crazy parts o' dah country? Huh? Ain't none of 'em ever been seen in football country.

 

I done reckon it is how you say it is.

 

Instead of hoping that the 73 yr. old GM has evolved into a more sophisticated and modern GM wouldn't it make more sense to install somene at the most critical position of an franchise who you already know has a more enlightened grasp of the position? Keeping Nix on the job is a testament to why this backwater franchise has struggled for so long.

 

Well until he's replaced I'll continue hoping he improves.

 

Feel free to analyze, digest, etc.

 

I'm feeling a bit bloated. Can I go to the bathroom?

 

Maybe our Northern and Western scouts are the problem. Maybe THEY suck. When you see a Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner....stand on the table and scream a little bit. Maybe interrupt Buddy's fishing competition with the SE Scout.

 

Projectile coffee...

 

The draft isn't the only area that Nix has been bad in though, this team is going to pay for the ill fated contract extension they gave Fitz, no matter what they do with him over the next day or two.

 

We have a right to complain or criticize, it is their job to improve, and they haven't in a long time, and probably won't under Nix.

 

1)Overdorf does the contracts

 

2) The person you quoted (BuffOrange) was agreeing with all the others that it's perfectly acceptable to criticize the GM's drafting.

 

Of everyone posting in this thread only BillsWatch objected to the retrospective criticism of Nix's drafts.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

It is but there are a lot of people on this board that hated the Troup and Williams picks when they were made not just in retrospect

+1

[RealityCheck]

The draft is about specific players drafted into specific situations. All of this zip code talk distracts from that. As another poster explained, the questions about Nix's drafts have to do with drafting heavy for defense 3 years in a row and still having a poor defense. Nix is wise to fish in the big pond, but who he has drafted from the SEC pond vs what other teams have gotten from the same region might be a better way to evaluate the picks. Lots of GMs have sound philosophies in theory, but most of them fail in the execution.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I wish I was a mod.

 

LOL!

 

Wouldn't it really be "for Christ's sake?"

 

/piling on

 

So far this morning we've had Danario spelled Donorio and also Denario.

 

I think people are so excited about free agency today that they didn't get much sleep last night.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

I think this notion is kind of misplaced when looking at the league as a whole.

 

For instance, in 2010, only 8 of 32 first-round picks hailed from schools that cannot be considered in the south. They were:

 

Tyson Alualu - Jax (10)

Anthony Davis - SF (11)

Brandon Graham - Phi (13)

Mike Iupati - SF (17)

Bryan Bulaga - GB (23)

Devin McCourty - NE (27)

Jared Odrick - Mia (28)

Kyle Wilson - NYJ (29)

 

2011 was a bit more balanced, with 12 non-southern players picked in round 1:

 

Jake Locker - Ten (8)

JJ Watt - Hou (11)

Ryan Kerrigan - Was (16)

Nate Solder - NE (17)

Corey Liuget - SD (18)

Adrian Clayborn - TB (20)

Anthony Castonzo - Ind (22)

Cam Jordan - NO (24)

Jon Baldwin - KC (26)

Jimmy Smith - Bal (27)

Gabe Carimi - Chi (29)

Cam Heyward - Pit (31)

 

Still though, that's just over 1/3 of the first round.

 

2012 was very similar to 2011, with 11 non-southern players in round 1:

 

Andrew Luck - Ind (1)

Michael Floyd - Ari (13)

Shea McClellin - Chi (19)

Chandler Jones - NE (21)

Reilly Reiff - Det (23)

David Decastro - Pit (24)

Whitney Mercilus - Hou (26)

Kevin Zeitler - Cin (27)

Harrison Smith - Min (29)

AJ Jenkins - SF (30)

Doug Martin - TB (31)

 

So, during Nix's tenure, looking exclusively at the first-round, only 31 of the 96 players drafted (less than 1/3) came from schools outside of the south. Even more revealing may be the fact that only 2 of the 30 top-ten picks came from non-southern schools (Luck and Locker). So, while it may be valid to criticize Nix for being limited in his approach, it's not without some perspective with regard to quality of college performance.

 

All the above said, realize that these numbers only apply to the first round. I don't really have the time to delve much deeper, but I can give the 2nd round figures as well (albeit in much less detail)...

 

2010 - 11 of 32 from non-southern schools

2011 - 13 of 32 from non-southern schools

2012 - 15 of 31 from non-southern schools

 

Feel free to analyze, digest, etc.

Have you thought of... like getting a more challenging job (if you have one). I wouldn't have bothered doing this if I'd had the time.

P.S.

Am I the only one who thinks Buddy isn't going to have much, if any, power in regards to our roster come the next two months. He is half way out the door already .... IMO. Just a figurehead and then a goner after April 27. They've got to be tired of having to help him remember his password to log on to the computer, His security question -----> What's your wifes maiden name.... etc. etc.

Edited March 12, 2013 by MOVALLEYRANDY

[thewildrabbit]

Ralph Wilson needed a GM to turn his franchise around (for the umpteenth time since he had a petty blow-up with Polian).

 

He chose a career scout, who had spent his career focusing primarily on one or two conferences, who had never before been a GM.

 

The results have been predictable. Said GM has focused primarily on those same conferences during his drafts, and has demonstrated repeatedly that, while he may be a good scout (i.e., player selector), he knows absolutely nothing about how to build a football team - what positions to prioritize, how to select coaches, how to allocate scarce resources. While he may finally be "changing" his mindset, we've wasted 3 years while he learned on the job.

 

One idiot hired another idiot to run his football team into the ground, and that is what has been accomplished.

 

Actually this is EXACTLY how I see the draft playing out.

This owner simply did what he has a storied history of doing, a hire from within the Org of somebody he trusts. While also looking for a very economical approach to hiring a new GM. It doesn't matter to him that he is incompetent. Over the past years Wilson has openly stated his team lacks talent, and then goes on to blame it on his player personnel and then fades back quietly into his job as president of the franchise. Meanwhile, assessing no blame or accountability to others because he knows he is ultimately responsible for the last decade of mismanagement on the football side.

 

What fans simply fail to realize is this owner doesn't care if his team has a winning record or gets to the playoffs each year. As long as games are sold out and the stadium is filled, and he is making a profit on his team he is happy, and content.

 

Ralph Wilson is anything but an idiot. He bought a team in a small market and has kept it profitable even tho the city of Buffalo itself has had drastic downturns in economic growth! Buffalo is one of the poorest cities in the USA with a population of 250K+ with almost 30% living below the poverty line.

 

Ralph Wilson has a very rabid fan base and he knows it, with people still dreaming of Jim Kelly and 4 super bowls The Bills are their team and they come in droves to party / tailgate on Sundays. While drawing people from Rochester and Canada to help fill his stadium. As long as fans keep buying season tickets every year and the stadium is filled this owner has no incentive to change anything. Why should he? His thought, who cares if he hired an inept GM, nothing new there. A money guy as CEO / president, and 10 mill per from the Toronto deal...whats not to like.

 

 

It really sucks to think it, but nothing changes until ownership changes

[Orton's Arm]

Thanks for the info. Statistically speaking it would be extremely unlikely for the drafting pattern you have shown to occur, without some sort of personal bias involved.

 

 

I have not lived in America......is an overall North-South bias an unheard of phenomena? Or is it a known bias amongst a certain percent of the population? I know there is a natural bias amongst some people towards their home State.....and particularly their home College......but am unsure if this bias occurs in people over such a broad geographical area.

 

If it is not unheard of for some people to favour anything North.....or anything South, over their geographical opposite equivalences, then perhaps this is a case of Nix drinking the Southern cool-aid. He sees two equivalent talents.....one from the North, one from the South. His natural emotional bias towards the South has him perceive the Southern player as a slightly better fit(even though both are rated to a similar level).....therefore he gives the nod to the Southern player. Rinse & repeat.

 

One of the best history books I've ever read is Albion's Seed. According to it, there are four major cultural groups in America: the Puritans, the Cavaliers, the Quakers, and the Borderers. The Puritans came from London and the area east of London. They settled New England, upstate New York, the Midwest, and northern California.

 

The Cavaliers from London and west of London. They settled near the coast, in places like eastern Maryland, eastern Virginia, and southern Alabama.

 

The Quakers came from the North Midlands, and settled in eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.

 

The Borderers came from the six northernmost counties of England and from the Scotch Lowlands. They settled in Appalachia, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and the Southwest. Of the four cultural groups, the Borderers' values are most conducive to making good football players.

 

There was a seven hundred year period during which only two English monarchs did not send some kind of armed expedition to wage war against Scotland. The borderlands from which the Borderers came were in a state of constant war, and that war led them to adopt warrior values. For example: a man from Kentucky and another from western Virginia decided to fight. They were asked if they wanted to fight fair, or "rough and tumble" style. They chose the latter. When the fight began, the man from western Virginia used his fingers to grab the other man's hair; then used his thumbs to gouge out his eyes. Then--still holding onto the hair--he pulled the other man's head forward, and bit off his opponent's nose. Then he let go of the hair, and pulled off the man's ears. At that point, his opponent gave up. The crowd celebrated the Virginian's victory, and afterwards treated him like a hero.

 

The other three cultural groups looked upon the Borderers as barbarians. But barbarians or no, Borderers were as tough as nails. Also, their leaders had the other virtues one expects of warriors: quick, decisive, intelligent decisions in the heat of battle, strong leadership, and a killer instinct. This is why so many good quarterbacks have come from Southwest Pennsylvania (which is Borderer territory), and why Borderer states produce a disproportionate number of professional football players.

[JM57]

Mods: Can we get an age limit on the forum? 18+ only?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Well I guess "major" cultural groups would be different than "distinct" cultural groups.

 

Does Albion's Seed discuss the Acadians who settled in northern New England and the Bayou country or the Scandinavians who settled the upper midwest?

 

It sounds like the book might be a bit ethnocentric or anglo-centric. Your brief synopsis seemed to ignore quite a few other immigrant groups.

[dave mcbride]

1: Russell Wilson played all but 1 yr in the ACC at NC State.

2: there were not 50 states during the Civil War. The statement that " there were 11 states in the CSA and the other 39 were not is misleading.

3: Please look at our drafts prior to nix arriving, same sample size (3 yrs). Tell me the success rate of our southern vs. non southern picks and what the numbers are. Here's the link http://www.nfl.com/d...=0610&type=team

 

in the 3 yrs prior to nix we drafted 7 out of 28 players from the south. 21 from non southern teams. Amazingly, 17 of those 21 non southern players were basically garbage or ran out of town and hated by bills fans. The success rate of our Dixie players during that same time period 5/7 were players that became starters.

 

Another thing to remember is that not every players will become a superstar.. If you get 4 good players that become either rotational players or legit starters that's success. using that as the measuring stick nix's Drafts look like this:

 

16 picks that have become players or are being developed and groomed ( i include Graham, sanders, and moats in this group)

11 picks that have done nothing, or almost nothing and who are no longer with the team.

 

of those 16 positive picks 15 are "southern" players

of the 11 "busts" 7 are Northern players.

 

What's the point of all this?

 

Nix has missed on some guys, and as others have said, it's easy to Cherry Pick the missed opportunities in hindsight, however, he has added alot of talent to a roster that was very bad when he arrived.

 

To say that because he's old and Southern means he somehow out of touch and unwilling to draft Northern Players is Idiotic.

 

"Idiotic" seems a tad harsh, in my humble opinion. Moreover, I'm not comparing the southern states of 1861 with the northern states of 1861. Rather, I'm assuming, on very strong grounds, that the states in the CSA have had for well over a century a self-identity as "the South." It has diminished some in recent years, particularly in northern Virginia, southern Florida, and the research triangle area (in NC). But that self-identity still exists, and until relatively recently "the lost cause" was something that most people in the region knew about and identified with to some extent (if white). While a lot has changed in recent years, "the South" as a differentiated and unique region still exists, more or less. Judging from political alignment and demographics, I don't think that's remotely arguable.

 

Regardless, Nix, who is from the deep South (Alabama) has a clear bias toward the region. Is it justified? Well, the best college football is certainly played in the South, and the best teams are there. Are the best athletes there? That's a different question.

 

As for Russell Wilson, I wouldn't be surprised if his departure from NC State was a black mark on him in Nix's book. Remember, Nix's greatest scouting success was a guy from Alabama who went to NC State: Philip Rivers. Incidentally, that's why I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills draft Glennon, the guy who was throwing to TJ Graham in 2011.

 

Just one more note on this issue: Nix has drafted one guy as a QB for the Bills (Levi Brown). He just so happened to be from Alabama (like Nix and like Philip Rivers) and played at the same school where Chan Gailey had his first coaching job as an assistant (Troy State).

 

Finally, since in 20 years the Bills have drafted only one good player (Stevie Johnson) in rounds 6 and 7 and one moderately impactful player (Jay Riemersma), I'm going to throw out rounds 6 and 7 and focus on rounds 1-5.

 

In rounds 1-5 in the past three years, the Bills have drafted 18 players. Only one - Marcus Easley (UConn) - is not from the South. That means that 94.4 percent of the players Nix has drafted in rounds 1-5 have been from the South. Again: 94.4 percent. In rounds 1-3, it's 100 percent.

Edited March 12, 2013 by dave mcbride

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Not criticizing you, EA.

 

Just asking about the book.

[thebandit27]

Have you thought of... like getting a more challenging job (if you have one). I wouldn't have bothered doing this if I'd had the time.

P.S.

Am I the only one who thinks Buddy isn't going to have much, if any, power in regards to our roster come the next two months. He is half way out the door already .... IMO. Just a figurehead and then a goner after April 27. They've got to be tired of having to help him remember his password to log on to the computer, His security question -----> What's your wifes maiden name.... etc. etc.

 

That took me, literally, 5 minutes, but thanks for the snark.

[Mr. WEO]

The best HS football is played in Texas, Florida, California, and many of the states that voted against civil rights.

 

 

Huh?

[Malazan]

Mods: Can we get an age limit on the forum? 18+ only?

 

Just have everyone take the wonderlic

[CarolinaBill]

"Idiotic" seems a tad harsh, in my humble opinion. Moreover, I'm not comparing the southern states of 1861 with the northern states of 1861. Rather, I'm assuming, on very strong grounds, that the states in the CSA have had for well over a century a self-identity as "the South." It has diminished some in recent years, particularly in northern Virginia, southern Florida, and the research triangle area (in NC). But that self-identity still exists, and until relatively recently "the lost cause" was something that most people in the region knew about and identified with to some extent (if white). While a lot has changed in recent years, "the South" as a differentiated and unique region still exists, more or less. Judging from political alignment and demographics, I don't think that's remotely arguable.

 

Florida has never been considered part of "the south". As for the rest of that nonsense, just say what you wanna say, but I warn you, tread lightly.

 

Regardless, Nix, who is from the deep South (Alabama) has a clear bias toward the region. Is it justified? Well, the best college football is certainly played in the South, and the best teams are there. Are the best athletes there? That's a different question.

 

As for Russell Wilson, I wouldn't be surprised if his departure from NC State was a black mark on him in Nix's book.

 

Except Wilson was pushed out the door to make room for Glennon

 

Just one more note on this issue: Nix has drafted one guy as a QB for the Bills (Levi Brown).

 

and he would've taken Cam Newton if he had fallen to # 3

 

Finally, since in 20 years the Bills have drafted only one good player (Stevie Johnson) in rounds 6 and 7 and one moderately impactful player (Jay Riemersma), I'm going to throw out rounds 6 and 7 and focus on rounds 1-5.

 

In rounds 1-5 in the past three years, the Bills have drafted 18 players. Only one - Marcus Easley (UConn) - is not from the South. That means that 94.4 percent of the players Nix has drafted in rounds 1-5 have been from the South. Again: 94.4 percent. In rounds 1-3, it's 100 percent.

 

Instead of looking at where they played, why not add the success rate into in like I did. The numbers don't lie the way you do. Nix has drafted south heavy, and we've gotten better players because of it plain and simple.

[Maury Ballstein]

good idea......wonderlic scores on everyones sig........i vote yes. would be very amusing.