Orton's Arm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If a QB puts up a very good rookie season, you don't necessarily know whether you're looking at an anomaly or a taste of things to come. If, on the other hand, a QB starts off his career by putting up five consecutive very good seasons, odds are you're looking at a pattern. That is the reason you take past accomplishments into account. However, the pattern a QB establishes in the prime of his career is not necessarily the best possible predictor of how he'll do as he nears retirement. Toward the end of his career, Dan Marino was a shell of his former self. Much of Jim Kelly's skill had also faded by the time he hung up his cleats. Brett Favre didn't exactly set the world on fire during that last season with the Vikings. Peyton Manning had the second-best 2012 season as ranked by yards per attempt. There's a very good chance he'll continue to be a top-5 QB in 2013. On the other hand, Ryan achieved a slightly higher YPA in 2012 than did Tom Brady. From a statistical standpoint the difference is meaningless. More telling is the fact that in the postseason, Brady didn't look like the same guy he'd been a few years ago. Even though Brady is slightly younger than Peyton, it's possible Brady is further along in his late career skills decline than is Manning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 .....Even though Brady is slightly younger than Peyton, it's possible Brady is further along in his late career skills decline than is Manning. We can only hope. If he does decline & retires after the 2014 season, that will have the added effect of screwing with the Patriots cap situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Interesting post, EA. While the stats back you up last season on the Manning vs Brady, I don't know how accurately they tell the story. They possibly could be misleading as both players still looked great. Also, Manning to my eye slipped a bit more than Brady in that it was obvious to me that Manning was not throwing with the same velocity as of previous years. I also saw numerous times where Manning lost grip on the ball and it came out of his hand fluttering. Also later in the season he experimented with a glove partly for the cold weather in Denver but also to improve his grip generally. Brady actually looked like the same player as always to me although both players failed to get their teams to the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Also, Manning to my eye slipped a bit more than Brady in that it was obvious to me that Manning was not throwing with the same velocity as of previous years. I'll second that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 How about this? "Captain Comeback: Matt Ryan Passes Tom Brady As NFL's Best QB In The Clutch" http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/captain-comeback-matt-ryan-passes-tom-brady-as-nfls-best-qb-the-clutch/18391/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I don't get it one bit. All I hear is Brees, Rodgers, Mannings, Brady as the big 5 with Flacco, Matt Ryan and others close behind. Matt Ryan is barely top 10, probably number 10. It just baffles me, Matty Ice, a clutch player with 1 playoff win under his belt. I just don't see it. Obviously, some of you are not going to think he is, this is directed towards the others who do. And please, don't muddle up the topic with "I'd take him over RF" and then 6 others guys give you a thumbs up post, it's off-topic and you know I can't resist a good RF debate, so we'll get derailed in 10 minutes. He is a good QB. You cant equate playoff team to QB. It matters the players around him. He gained his credit for being able to win close games with winning them in the final minutes. Atlanta had a lucky season. They finished 13-3 but they easily could have been 9-7. 9 of their 13 wins were close games that a play here/there could have been losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 He is a good QB. You cant equate playoff team to QB. It matters the players around him. He gained his credit for being able to win close games with winning them in the final minutes. Atlanta had a lucky season. They finished 13-3 but they easily could have been 9-7. 9 of their 13 wins were close games that a play here/there could have been losses. You can equate it to playoff wins when he has turnovers to lose games. I think he's inflated by his receivers. He threw 5 picks against the Jags, while one game could be considered an anomaly, I don't remember the last time a QB had that many picks in the top 10. So, Kelly wasn't a top 6 QB during his prime? Do we need to look at his SB stats or the team's SB record? That's just a very narrow minded approach. The whole game doesn't just hinge on the QB. 5 turnovers in 2 games? You mean the game didn't hinge on those? Really "clutch" QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago_Mike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You can equate it to playoff wins when he has turnovers to lose games. I think he's inflated by his receivers. He threw 5 picks against the Jags, while one game could be considered an anomaly, I don't remember the last time a QB had that many picks in the top 10. 5 turnovers in 2 games? You mean the game didn't hinge on those? Really "clutch" QB. Jesus... really? Arguing for the sake of arguing. Dumb and over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i think it is mostly because he is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why does everyone include Peyton Manning in their top 4? He was awful in the playoff game. He has been awful in a number of playoff games expecially outdoors. He has less SB wins than Roethlisberger and less appearances than Warner. At this point I would have a top 3, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. Then there is a crowded field to be the leader of the next group. Eli, Peyton, Flacco, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Luck, Wilson, Koepernick, Schaub and Cutler. I could see Peyton as high as #4 and as low as #13. I would no longer include Rivers and I am not sold on RGIII yet - but I was impressed with his TD-Int ratio and completion % even with the number of bubble screens he threw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WellDressed Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hate the "Matural" I think he has the top in one catagory: WORST. NICKNAME. EVER! I think he has the top in one catagory: WORST. NICKNAME. EVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benderbender Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hate the "Matural" Anything is better than the Amish Rifle. One because its an oxymoron, two because calling anything a rifle with Fitz arm strength is a patent falsehood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NishP Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Because he more then likely is! Ill take him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting post, EA. While the stats back you up last season on the Manning vs Brady, I don't know how accurately they tell the story. They possibly could be misleading as both players still looked great. Also, Manning to my eye slipped a bit more than Brady in that it was obvious to me that Manning was not throwing with the same velocity as of previous years. I also saw numerous times where Manning lost grip on the ball and it came out of his hand fluttering. Also later in the season he experimented with a glove partly for the cold weather in Denver but also to improve his grip generally. Brady actually looked like the same player as always to me although both players failed to get their teams to the Super Bowl. I hadn't seen much of Manning's play this past season, so for now I'll assume you're probably right about him. As for Brady: my impression is that he's slipped a little. In the playoff game against the Ravens, for example, some of his throws were a little off. These were throws late in the game, in key situations. Throws that the Brady from five years ago would have made. The Patriots are still getting very good play from their QB position, and can expect more very good play going into next season. But the Patriots can no longer count on Brady to consistently play at rarified heights. There will still be times when he plays at a truly elite level, but more and more those times will be intermingled with times when he looks as he did late in the playoff game against the Ravens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Before Matt Ryan the Falcons NEVER had back to back winning seasons,let alonemaking the playoffs in consecutive years. They have completely changed the culture of the franchise. I live in Atlanta and watch most Falcons games one way or the other. The Falcons have built the team around Ryan for a good reason, the guy can win. He has 16 fourth quarter/OT come back wins and 23 game winning drives in his career SO FAR. The playoff win drought ended this year. They were 15 yds away from going to the Super Bowl against a team that many said they had no shot against. The problem with the Falcons is the D. Dimitrof is a disciple of Belichick. Find a great QB, give him weapons on O. They realize what the NFL is- a qb league. If you do not think Ryan is in the top 7-8 guys, tell me who you would take over him? And explain why. Ryan carried that team this year. M. Turner fell off big time from his 2010 performance and has been on a sharp decline. The Falcons run game is so bad they have to usually pass for it on third and short. Like the Pats do many times. With out Ryan on the Falcons they are a 4-6 win team. andddddddddddddd that should have ended all discussion dudes a beast...plain and simple....why do analysts/people think hes a top 10 QB in the league? BECAUSE HE IS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 He is a good QB. You cant equate playoff team to QB. It matters the players around him. He gained his credit for being able to win close games with winning them in the final minutes. Atlanta had a lucky season. They finished 13-3 but they easily could have been 9-7. 9 of their 13 wins were close games that a play here/there could have been losses. Yes but they didn't lose those games. In fact i would contend those games where close because the D for Atlanta is very average with little depth. They won most of those games because of Ryan. With out Ryan on the Falcons they are probably a 4-6 win team. I wonder how many people here giving an opinion on Ryan have seen the majority of his games. I have. The guy has yet to win the big game. He is a very good QB who has great poise and good over all talent. He is not the most god gifted QB in the league. He also has had 2 O cords and not missed a beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 As for Brady: my impression is that he's slipped a little. In the playoff game against the Ravens, for example, some of his throws were a little off. These were throws late in the game, in key situations. Throws that the Brady from five years ago would have made. The Patriots are still getting very good play from their QB position, and can expect more very good play going into next season. But the Patriots can no longer count on Brady to consistently play at rarified heights. There will still be times when he plays at a truly elite level, but more and more those times will be intermingled with times when he looks as he did late in the playoff game against the Ravens. I agree that Brady is a tiny bit past his prime. Even though he still puts up huge numbers and looks great for extended stretches, I think he's ticked down a few fractions of a notch and since 2004 he's been unable to transcend his team's weaknesses and lift them to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Exactly. And about 95% of people would have said he was a better QB than Flacco. He still is but the Ravens have a better all around team. I'm not even sure the ravens do, but in a game of inches and a 1 and done playoffs they got the ring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yes but they didn't lose those games. In fact i would contend those games where close because the D for Atlanta is very average with little depth. They won most of those games because of Ryan. With out Ryan on the Falcons they are probably a 4-6 win team. I wonder how many people here giving an opinion on Ryan have seen the majority of his games. I have. The guy has yet to win the big game. He is a very good QB who has great poise and good over all talent. He is not the most god gifted QB in the league. He also has had 2 O cords and not missed a beat. I disagree without Ryan they are a 4-6 win team. In fact, I think you put anyone in the top 20 on there and they make the playoffs. He has arguably the best receiving corp in the league right now. They are all top 5 and top 10 receivers. If you watch his games, the majority of the catches made are extraordinary plays made by his receivers. He doesn't make too many mistakes, except in the playoffs, but Alex Smith, another generally mistake free QB, could have brought them to the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I disagree without Ryan they are a 4-6 win team. In fact, I think you put anyone in the top 20 on there and they make the playoffs. He has arguably the best receiving corp in the league right now. They are all top 5 and top 10 receivers. If you watch his games, the majority of the catches made are extraordinary plays made by his receivers. He doesn't make too many mistakes, except in the playoffs, but Alex Smith, another generally mistake free QB, could have brought them to the playoffs. The majority of the catches are extraordinary, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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