hondo in seattle Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) Russ Brandon said that their HC search was "exhaustive" and I believe him. But what about the QB search? A few posters here have suggested the Bills draft two QBs in this draft and I agree. Our QB search needs also to be "exhaustive." 20% to 50% of 1st round QBs become 'franchise quarterbacks' - depending on your definition of a 'franchise QB' and what time frame you look at. To look at it another way, only about 30% or so of QBs picked in the first round will ever accomplish enough to play in a Pro Bowl. At best, getting a good QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition. Getting one in later rounds has even longer odds. I don't want the success of the Bills to hinge on a coin toss, at best. For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. This is similar to what Seattle did last year. They acquired Matt Flynn but drafted Russell Wilson to stack the odds in their favor. We need to stack the odds in ours. To compensate the rawness of two rookie QBs on the roster, we should furthermore trade for Flynn or Alex Smith if either are truly on the market. Or go after an experienced FA like TJack or Matt Moore. QBs are more important than ever in today's NFL and I'm hoping OBD goes after this position hard this off-season. http://thedctimes.co...il-for-success/ http://bleacherrepor...eed-for-success http://aol.sportingn...disappointments http://articles.sun-...ft-josh-freeman Edited January 24, 2013 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanC883 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I agree 100%. Would love to draft Nassib and Wilson, then grab TJax, who should cost less than trading for A. Smith or M. Flynn. I think the Cardinals will desperately want one of those QB's and overpay given that their best player (and best WR in the NFL) is totally useless currently with the terrible QB play at AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) 5 candidates in 1 week & the Chip Kelly interview was said to be a very short interview - exhaustive ? Chicago / SanDiego maybe - KC / Buffalo not so much ! Sounds like they got you drinking the kool aid ! I just hope that our new coach doesn't have blinders on when looking at prospects in the draft & isn't relying on his comfort level of his old college players. Edited January 24, 2013 by T master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 5 candidates in 1 week & the Chip Kelly interview was said to be a very short interview - exhaustive ? Chicago / SanDiego maybe - KC / Buffalo not so much ! Sounds like they got you drinking the kool aid ! I just hope that our new coach doesn't have blinders on when looking at prospects in the draft & isn't relying on his comfort level of his old college players. Yep! When it comes to the HC search, I am drinking the Kool Aid! I believe Brandon, Nix and Whaley began their due diligence weeks - if not months - before releasing Chan. They had already talked to people about their candidates, studied film, etc. So they were hot and ready to go when Black Monday came. The only thing left was to do the interviews and they got those scheduled quick. I'm glad they struck before someone else could nab their man. But that's not the point of the original post. The Bills haven't had a good QB since Kelly. Todd Collins had a good game once - as the back up for another team. Doug Flutie played well sometimes - in the 4th quarter. Rob Johnson threw some NFL caliber passes when he wasn't taking a sack. Bledsoe played some good games before crashing. Trent Edwards completed a high percentage of check downs. JP tossed some beautiful long balls to Lee Evans but couldn't complete a screen or down-n-out. Fitz had a streak last year when he completed a lot of underneath stuff and a few jump balls. But none of these guys ever become our franchise QB. I'm tired of waiting for the next Kelly. As we all know, it's hard to make the playoffs when you don't have a good QB. So I want us to really commit our resources to finding one this year. While I am happy with the HC search, I'm hoping OBD gives me reason to drink a little QB Kool Aid too this offseason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) Russ Brandon said that their HC search was "exhaustive" and I believe him. But what about the QB search? A few posters here have suggested the Bills draft two QBs in this draft and I agree. Our QB search needs also to be "exhaustive." 20% to 50% of 1st round QBs become 'franchise quarterbacks' - depending on your definition of a 'franchise QB' and what time frame you look at. To look at it another way, only about 30% or so of QBs picked in the first round will ever accomplish enough to play in a Pro Bowl. At best, getting a good QB in the first round is a 50-50 proposition. Getting one in later rounds has even longer odds. I don't want the success of the Bills to hinge on a coin toss, at best. For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. This is similar to what Seattle did last year. They acquired Matt Flynn but drafted Russell Wilson to stack the odds in their favor. We need to stack the odds in ours. To compensate the rawness of two rookie QBs on the roster, we should furthermore trade for Flynn or Alex Smith if either are truly on the market. Or go after an experienced FA like TJack or Matt Moore. QBs are more important than ever in today's NFL and I'm hoping OBD goes after this position hard this off-season. http://thedctimes.co...il-for-success/ http://bleacherrepor...eed-for-success http://aol.sportingn...disappointments http://articles.sun-...ft-josh-freeman Playing in a pro bowl is IMO not a very good way to assess the success of a player....especially a QB(due to the higher percent of starters making the PB compared to most other positions). There are many players that have only one very good year.....and many that have their good year(or three) later in their careers when they have moved away from the team that drafted them. In the study/breakdown I did here....http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/....I focused on teams getting success from their 1st round QB draft pick. I included single pro bowls for interest sake but it became clear that your chance of finding a 5+ year starter is very high inside the top 4 picks (47%).....and very low outside of the top 4 (17%)(& that includes picks #33 so we include Favre & Brees in that number). To me this highlights the concept that we need to be drafting a lot of QBs to find one that will be good....and we should have been doing this for the last 20 years. Edited January 24, 2013 by Dibs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Playing in a pro bowl is IMO not a very good way to assess the success of a player....especially a QB(due to the higher percent of starters making the PB compared to most other positions). There are many players that have only one very good year.....and many that have their good year(or three) later in their careers when they have moved away from the team that drafted them. In the study/breakdown I did here....http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/....I focused on teams getting success from their 1st round QB draft pick. I included single pro bowls for interest sake but it became clear that your chance of finding a 5+ year starter is very high inside the top 4 picks (47%).....and very low outside of the top 4 (17%)(& that includes picks #33 so we include Favre & Brees in that number). To me this highlights the concept that we need to be drafting a lot of QBs to find one that will be good....and we should have been doing this for the last 20 years. Sorry, I somehow I missed your excellent post. You provide a great analysis that reinforces the argument that - probabilities being what they are - we need to draft more than one QB this year. Then maybe get a guy with experience as an emergency backup in case the rookies don't make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirginiaMike Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. This is similar to what Seattle did last year. They acquired Matt Flynn but drafted Russell Wilson to stack the odds in their favor. We need to stack the odds in ours. To compensate the rawness of two rookie QBs on the roster, we should furthermore trade for Flynn or Alex Smith if either are truly on the market. Or go after an experienced FA like TJack or Matt Moore. I'm really having a problem with the theory of drafting 2 QB's high and also trading for another. It leaves the rest of the cubboard bare. I agree whole-heartedly that we need a QB, but did anyone watch or defense last year -- it was Terrible - note the capital T. Our Wideouts, with Johnson the exception, are less than average and would leave a QB no-one to throw to. While we need a QB, we have other needs that need to be fulfilled if we are to become a good team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) I agree 100%. Would love to draft Nassib and Wilson, then grab TJax, who should cost less than trading for A. Smith or M. Flynn. I think the Cardinals will desperately want one of those QB's and overpay given that their best player (and best WR in the NFL) is totally useless currently with the terrible QB play at AZ. Theres about a zero percent chance of that happening unless you think the Bills should draft QB's in the first and second. And theres a (decent shading to very good) chance both of those guys go in the first. Edited January 24, 2013 by mob16151 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) During Ryan Nassib's interview with Murph yesterday he mentioned that Buddy had asked him a question when he sat down with The Bills ...To be bluntly honest, that's all I need to know about the QB search... My guess is no matter how in-depth and exhaustive it is, if Nix is the main Scout involved, it's going to come out bad in the end...I sincerely hope I'm wrong...I would LOVE to be wrong...But I do not trust Buddy to make this call whatsoever...I don't trust him to have input whatsoever...I don't even trust him to have an opinion whatsoever...But that's just me...Right? Edited January 24, 2013 by KOKBILLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm really having a problem with the theory of drafting 2 QB's high and also trading for another. It leaves the rest of the cubboard bare. I agree whole-heartedly that we need a QB, but did anyone watch or defense last year -- it was Terrible - note the capital T. Our Wideouts, with Johnson the exception, are less than average and would leave a QB no-one to throw to. While we need a QB, we have other needs that need to be fulfilled if we are to become a good team. I've always thought like you. But good QBs are a rare commodity. Other positions are easier to fill through free agency, trades, and lower round draft picks. For example, the Seahawks got their starting RB (Lynch) for a 5th round draft pick. You don't get a good starting QB that cheap. For the most part, you draft them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 During Ryan Nassib's interview with Murph yesterday he mentioned that Buddy had asked him a question when he sat down with The Bills ...To be bluntly honest, that's all I need to know about the QB search...My guess is no matter how in-depth and exhaustive it is, if Nix is the main Scout involved, it's going to come out bad in the end...I sincerely hope I'm wrong...I would LOVE to be wrong...But I do not trust Buddy to make this call whatsoever...I don't trust him to have input whatsoever...I don't even trust him to have an opinion whatsoever...But that's just me...Right? I think so,it's not like Nix has drafted a lot of QB's..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For the sake of argument, let's say a first rounder has a 50% chance of success and a 2nd rounder 30%. If we draft a QB in both the 1st and 2nd round, our chances of at least one of the QBs succeeding is now statistically 85%. You don't get to add them together to get an 85% chance. So if you draft two in the first round you get a 100% chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 During Ryan Nassib's interview with Murph yesterday he mentioned that Buddy had asked him a question when he sat down with The Bills ...To be bluntly honest, that's all I need to know about the QB search...My guess is no matter how in-depth and exhaustive it is, if Nix is the main Scout involved, it's going to come out bad in the end...I sincerely hope I'm wrong...I would LOVE to be wrong...But I do not trust Buddy to make this call whatsoever...I don't trust him to have input whatsoever...I don't even trust him to have an opinion whatsoever...But that's just me...Right? So the fact that Nix asked him a question tells you that he is the main Scout involved? I can't extrapolate that conclusion from the information provided, and it's foolish to do so. I think the directive is there to draft a QB, no matter what, this time out. They know that the heat is on to select one, and if they don't, there is going to be major hell to pay among the fans unless they somehow get Joe Flacco here. Russ Brandon won't let that sit even if it's the best choice in the end (and I think that's an unlikely scenario). My fear is that they skip out on a better player by getting lost in the turning of the draft wheel, and end up reaching for the wrong QB. This choice is about as critical as it gets. Nassib might be very good, but he has real concerns to allay for me. I think getting it wrong with him will be far more destructive than with any other available QB, unless Nassib comes out and is a star for some other team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So the fact that Nix asked him a question tells you that he is the main Scout involved? I can't extrapolate that conclusion from the information provided, and it's foolish to do so. Don't call me foolish...And you're sarcasm meter sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Don't call me foolish...And you're sarcasm meter sucks... I am sarcasm meter may have been a little bit off, Your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think so,it's not like Nix has drafted a lot of QB's..................... I doubt it's just me...But go on thinking whatever you want to...The guy misjudged a few QB already in his 3 years...The fact he did not Draft them means he undervalued them... While having nothing more than the Amish rifle on his roster... I am sarcasm meter may have been a little bit off, Your right. Nah I'm just busting your chops...I should have put a , or something like that...Thanks for being a good sport though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 (edited) I doubt it's just me...But go on thinking whatever you want to...The guy misjudged a few QB already in his 3 years...The fact he did not Draft them means he undervalued them... While having nothing more than the Amish rifle on his roster... See you making a mistake with your logic there IMO. Your thinking because a QB succeeded somewhere else,that he would have also succeeded here. That doesn't hold true. Edited January 24, 2013 by mob16151 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Maybe Russ is using Buddy as a reverse meter. whatever he suggests, do the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 You don't get to add them together to get an 85% chance. So if you draft two in the first round you get a 100% chance? I didn't notice that on my initial reading. Mathematically it would be 65%....not 85% Using the initial numbers, the chance of drafting a QB not succeeding is 50% & 70%. Therefore the chance that both don't succeed is 0.5 x 0.7 = 0.35 or 35%. Therefore the chance that one or both succeed would be 100% - 35% = 65% More realistic numbers would be 17%(being generous) for both of our 1st & 2nd round picks. This would give us a 31% chance that one or both succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 See you making a mistake with your logic there IMO. Your thinking because a QB succeeded somewhere else,that he would have also succeeded here. That doesn't hold true. God I keep hearing this argument and I swear it's driving me nuts...Sorry but we're going to have to disagree strongly on this...Have you seen Fitz play? Have you seen these young QB's play? Would Dalton, Kaepernick, or Wilson have equal success in Buffalo? Probably not...I'll give you that much...Would they be clearly better than Fitz and give the Bills HUGE hope at the QB position today? You bet they would...I have zero doubt about it... Maybe Russ is using Buddy as a reverse meter. whatever he suggests, do the opposite. That would be an awesome strategy actually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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