RuntheDamnBall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Maybe Russ is using Buddy as a reverse meter. whatever he suggests, do the opposite. The Costanza strategy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 God I keep hearing this argument and I swear it's driving me nuts...Sorry but we're going to have to disagree strongly on this...Have you seen Fitz play? Have you seen these young QB's play? Would Dalton, Kaepernick, or Wilson have equal success in Buffalo? Probably not...I'll give you that much...Would they be clearly better than Fitz and give the Bills HUGE hope at the QB position today? You bet they would...I have zero doubt about it... It's cool,the way I see it is like this, your assuming that the Gailey staff was capable of developing a young QB. And all 3 of those guys while starters,were brought along slowly. I could see Wilson maybe, having success under Gailey,but Dalton would have Bills fans complaining about his lack of armstrength,and Kaepernick's delivery would have led to a bunch of interceptions,when he was thrown into action to soon. As an aside i'm just trying to make the point that hypothetical what if plaxer X was drafted by the Bills,are useless. You simply don't know. I mean as another example did you know that in 2009 when Brian Orapko was drafted by the Bills in the first round,he suffered a catastrophic knee injury in his 3rd pre season game and never played a down of football again. While Maybin had 5 sacks his rookie year for the redskins. Ridiculous yes, but it COULD have happened, just as easily. , Apologies for belaboring this point,and thanks for hearing me out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nassib in RD2 is a strong likelihood. I don't see other teams gravitating to him before our pick, with the possible exception of the Jets. But they want LT, LG, possibly DT34 (if they switch to 3-4, and they're discussing it), and two OLB34's out of this draft, and they'd have a choice even in RD2 that didn't include Nassib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nassib in RD2 is a strong likelihood. I don't see other teams gravitating to him before our pick, with the possible exception of the Jets. But they want LT, LG, possibly DT34 (if they switch to 3-4, and they're discussing it), and two OLB34's out of this draft, and they'd have a choice even in RD2 that didn't include Nassib. I see your sig includes Manuel in R3 - really think he lasts there given current trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nassib in RD2 is a strong likelihood. I don't see other teams gravitating to him before our pick, with the possible exception of the Jets. But they want LT, LG, possibly DT34 (if they switch to 3-4, and they're discussing it), and two OLB34's out of this draft, and they'd have a choice even in RD2 that didn't include Nassib. If the Jets don't pick a QB with their 1st or 2nd round pick.....who will they be looking at to be their starting QB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob16151 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If the Jets don't pick a QB with their 1st or 2nd round pick.....who will they be looking at to be their starting QB? Tavaris Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
You herd it hear last Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I agree 100%. Would love to draft Nassib and Wilson, then grab TJax, who should cost less than trading for A. Smith or M. Flynn. I think the Cardinals will desperately want one of those QB's and overpay given that their best player (and best WR in the NFL) is totally useless currently with the terrible QB play at AZ. Ol' Grandma Megatron'll have somethin to say 'bout that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I didn't notice that on my initial reading. Mathematically it would be 65%....not 85% Using the initial numbers, the chance of drafting a QB not succeeding is 50% & 70%. Therefore the chance that both don't succeed is 0.5 x 0.7 = 0.35 or 35%. Therefore the chance that one or both succeed would be 100% - 35% = 65% More realistic numbers would be 17%(being generous) for both of our 1st & 2nd round picks. This would give us a 31% chance that one or both succeed. Plus, the chances of 2 QBs succeeding on the same team are not independent events. The 2nd QB picked will actually have a lower success rate than he would have had if he was the only QB picked. This is because more resources (practicing with the starters, game time experience) will be given to the first QB taken over the 2nd one. Either way, the chances of finding a successful QB still increase with drafting 2 QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 (edited) I didn't notice that on my initial reading. Mathematically it would be 65%....not 85% Using the initial numbers, the chance of drafting a QB not succeeding is 50% & 70%. Therefore the chance that both don't succeed is 0.5 x 0.7 = 0.35 or 35%. Therefore the chance that one or both succeed would be 100% - 35% = 65% More realistic numbers would be 17%(being generous) for both of our 1st & 2nd round picks. This would give us a 31% chance that one or both succeed. Oops... I did screw up the probability - not sure what I was thinking. And my by-round odds were probably optimistic in the first place. Both observations reinforce the case for acquiring multiple QBs. Even if we drafted two, our chances of not finding the right guy are considerable. A 31% probability - if your assessment is right - is pretty bleak but far better than 17%. Edited January 25, 2013 by hondo in seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 During Ryan Nassib's interview with Murph yesterday he mentioned that Buddy had asked him a question when he sat down with The Bills ...To be bluntly honest, that's all I need to know about the QB search... My guess is no matter how in-depth and exhaustive it is, if Nix is the main Scout involved, it's going to come out bad in the end...I sincerely hope I'm wrong...I would LOVE to be wrong...But I do not trust Buddy to make this call whatsoever...I don't trust him to have input whatsoever...I don't even trust him to have an opinion whatsoever...But that's just me...Right? The last two high picks he presumably had influence on selecting were brees and rivers so.... We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The last two high picks he presumably had influence on selecting were brees and rivers so.... We will see. Fair enough...But Buddy was not the final word on either of those Picks...I'm certain he had plenty of input...No question... I've always felt that the biggest problem with Buddy was elevating him from a Scout, or even Head Scout, to GM...As the final say, I think it's one step too high for Nix, and it's shown...Hopefully he'll be back to Scout-mode with this QB selection, and the final say will come down to Whaley...I know that sounds backwards based on what they have told us...But I'm more comfortable with just about anyone making the final decision over Buddy...I just have no confidence in the guy... But at this point it (Nix bashing) just sounds like needless piling on...So...You're right...We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fair enough...But Buddy was not the final word on either of those Picks...I'm certain he had plenty of input...No question... I've always felt that the biggest problem with Buddy was elevating him from a Scout, or even Head Scout, to GM...As the final say, I think it's one step too high for Nix, and it's shown...Hopefully he'll be back to Scout-mode with this QB selection, and the final say will come down to Whaley...I know that sounds backwards based on what they have told us...But I'm more comfortable with just about anyone making the final decision over Buddy...I just have no confidence in the guy... But at this point it (Nix bashing) just sounds like needless piling on...So...You're right...We'll see... For sure - I've waffled back and forth on our current situation. I'm hoping when he decides to pull the trigger it'll be for someone that succeeds like those guys.... But im likewise getting impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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