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Deciphering OBD Code - Two Tidbits to Ponder


Dr. Trooth

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I also think the Bills have a plan to fix world hunger they will be revealing soon based on Brandon's comments.

 

Ya made me laugh, thumbs up.

 

As to tidbit one, defintely agree the ageing injured vets like Kelsay and McGee arent going to rate very high in any analytics

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Except that now we are 3 years into that process, and only one major hole (QB) and a few secondary holes (another WR, OLB upgrades, additional talent to secondary).

 

If Im a Head Coach candidate looking at this team, I see that Nix has built it from the lines out, with a couple of major offensive weapons, but that needs some tweaking, a couple of additions, and a good kick in the ass.

 

I dont think anyone would be dumb or arrogant enough to want to do a complete rebuild with new GM and starting from scratch on the roster. Nor do I want anyone who would think that is necessary.

What I'm trying to illuminate is a bit more nuanced than simply falling back on the "unquestionable" assertion that Buddy has added talent. I'm not even interested in stirring that pot; it's been done in another thread at awesome length already. ;)

 

The point is that Whaley and Brandon could fall in love with Coach X. Coach X has all kinds of brilliant ideas, blah, blah, blah. However, Coach X's core philosophy to building a championship team does NOT align with Buddy's philosophy. Coach X would like to change the approach to suit what he wants. In other words, when he does his due diligence before taking the job, he feels strongly that certain aspects of the team are not just plug-n-play with a minor tweak here or there as you put it. Brandon has the authority to remove Buddy, that's clear. On the other hand, would Brandon use that authority to get "his guy"? It's possible but not clear that Brandon would lower the hammer on Nix to hire Coach X. On the one hand, if Coach X is "the guy" and Nix is sort of looking to pass the baton anyway... on the other hand, if Coach X is just "one of many" and Nix is that unequaled talent evaluator that Brandon said he was...

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What I'm trying to illuminate is a bit more nuanced than simply falling back on the "unquestionable" assertion that Buddy has added talent. I'm not even interested in stirring that pot; it's been done in another thread at awesome length already. ;)

 

The point is that Whaley and Brandon could fall in love with Coach X. Coach X has all kinds of brilliant ideas, blah, blah, blah. However, Coach X's core philosophy to building a championship team does NOT align with Buddy's philosophy. Coach X would like to change the approach to suit what he wants. In other words, when he does his due diligence before taking the job, he feels strongly that certain aspects of the team are not just plug-n-play with a minor tweak here or there as you put it. Brandon has the authority to remove Buddy, that's clear. On the other hand, would Brandon use that authority to get "his guy"? It's possible but not clear that Brandon would lower the hammer on Nix to hire Coach X. On the one hand, if Coach X is "the guy" and Nix is sort of looking to pass the baton anyway... on the other hand, if Coach X is just "one of many" and Nix is that unequaled talent evaluator that Brandon said he was...

 

Sure, I dont disagree with any of that. Brandon certainly has the power to do so. It's his show now. GMs and Coaches may comes and go, but we have Russ Brandon at the helm until "ownership changes". 0:)

Edited by DrDareustein
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Nothing personal to Buddy Nix. But, the sooner his exit strategy is finalized. The sooner the Bills can look forward to a new era. One of possible long overdue success. It's stunning that he is still employed today. The only reason that's possible is because of how close the 2013 draft is and his considerable input in it(good or bad).

 

Or you know, it could also be because the talent is higher and roster depth deeper since he got here.

 

Some of you people think franchise quarterbacks grow on trees. Oi.

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I think the analytical part of it, and how Brandon mentioned Nix along with Overdorf's name means they are going to implement a sabermetrics system. Anyone who has seen "Moneyball" knows what that is all about.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen...the Bills are going to be the Oakland A's of the NFL. I expect us to potentially be decent enough to compete, but we'll groom, then trade players for draft picks rather than resign them long term.

 

 

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I think the analytical part of it, and how Brandon mentioned Nix along with Overdorf's name means they are going to implement a sabermetrics system. Anyone who has seen "Moneyball" knows what that is all about.

 

Ladies and Gentlemen...the Bills are going to be the Oakland A's of the NFL. I expect us to potentially be decent enough to compete, but we'll groom, then trade players for draft picks rather than resign them long term.

 

As has been mentioned multiple times, several teams in every major sport use advanced statistical metrics in player evaluations. The Boston Red Sox were the first big spending MLB to follow Oakland's lead and won a World Series. The NY Yankees use the "Moneyball" method, and they spend more in payroll than any pro sports franchise. It is not a spendthrift method of operation, rather it plays a major role in the future of player evaluation.

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Here's reality. I think you are reading way too "much" into what you want to read.

If you truly did read what Russ said in context, you should realize Russ did not say "much" to be vague and evasive or anything in that nature. The word "much" was said in context of a generalization. Will he be doing "exactly" the same thing he did 3 years ago? No.

 

Three years ago, Nix was tasked to rebuild the team. Three years ago, he was laying the foundation of that rebuild. Since then, Nix has been building on that foundation. He will continue to do so. In short, Nix will be doing pretty "much" the same thing he has been doing the past 3 years.

 

 

 

I think you better read what Russ said: "... analytics will provide an additional layer ... ".

 

The advanced metrics of on the field performance analytics is not replacing anything. It's adding to it. And nowhere does he state or imply that analysis will take precedent or priority over everything else.

 

then there is no reason for it and why would he put it in, I heard him say and read that it would apply to play on the field.

 

maybe you shouldn't be so cynical.

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I think you better read what Russ said: "... analytics will provide an additional layer ... ".

 

The advanced metrics of on the field performance analytics is not replacing anything. It's adding to it. And nowhere does he state or imply that analysis will take precedent or priority over everything else.

 

"Meanwhile, Brandon said he would create an analytics department, a growing trend in the NFL. “We are going to create and establish a very robust football analytics operation

 

that we layer into our entire operation

 

moving forward,” Brandon said. “That’s something that’s very important to me and the future of the franchise.”

 

More teams are employing complex statistical analysis in game-day, draft and free-agency preparation. Examples: Analyzing completion percentages against multiple coverages; how often a draft prospect has been targeted in obvious passing situations; calculating the odds of going for it on fourth down; analyzing the rate of recovery from injuries based on specific therapies.

 

Teams are guarded about the information. New England was at the forefront of statistical analysis for more than a decade. Baltimore, Atlanta, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are among those that have recently added an analytics department."

 

 

http://www.buffalone...ills-drive-1109

Edited by Buffalo Barbarian
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"Meanwhile, Brandon said he would create an analytics department, a growing trend in the NFL. “We are going to create and establish a very robust football analytics operation

 

that we layer into our entire operation

 

Very good. Still not seeing how this analysis is replacing any other analytics already in place.

 

moving forward,” Brandon said. “That’s something that’s very important to me and the future of the franchise.”

 

More teams are employing complex statistical analysis in game-day, draft and free-agency preparation. Examples: Analyzing completion percentages against multiple coverages; how often a draft prospect has been targeted in obvious passing situations; calculating the odds of going for it on fourth down; analyzing the rate of recovery from injuries based on specific therapies.

 

Teams are guarded about the information. New England was at the forefront of statistical analysis for more than a decade. Baltimore, Atlanta, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are among those that have recently added an analytics department."

 

 

http://www.buffalone...ills-drive-1109

 

Still not seeing where this is going to be the defacto way to analyze a player.

 

 

Here's the way I see it. The Bills have this bag of tools to analyze players. They are now going to add to this bag a tool called "advanced metrics analytics".

 

Just another tool to get a better picture of what's happening.

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then there is no reason for it and why would he put it in, I heard him say and read that it would apply to play on the field.

 

maybe you shouldn't be so cynical.

 

The dude is right... it is in addition to. They are not going to forsake their current statistical metrics. They will still use their conventional quality control stats, but the analytics is going to be an additional tool. Among other things, it can validate some of the on field things that current QC measures as well as refute them. I don't believe they're in a position to roll out the analytics completely out of the gate. It's going to be a work in process. And, I'd be surprised if they didn't use a six sigma master black belt with a football passion or background to administer it.

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What I'm trying to illuminate is a bit more nuanced than simply falling back on the "unquestionable" assertion that Buddy has added talent. I'm not even interested in stirring that pot; it's been done in another thread at awesome length already. ;)

 

The point is that Whaley and Brandon could fall in love with Coach X. Coach X has all kinds of brilliant ideas, blah, blah, blah. However, Coach X's core philosophy to building a championship team does NOT align with Buddy's philosophy. Coach X would like to change the approach to suit what he wants. In other words, when he does his due diligence before taking the job, he feels strongly that certain aspects of the team are not just plug-n-play with a minor tweak here or there as you put it. Brandon has the authority to remove Buddy, that's clear. On the other hand, would Brandon use that authority to get "his guy"? It's possible but not clear that Brandon would lower the hammer on Nix to hire Coach X. On the one hand, if Coach X is "the guy" and Nix is sort of looking to pass the baton anyway... on the other hand, if Coach X is just "one of many" and Nix is that unequaled talent evaluator that Brandon said he was...

Perhaps a likely scenario which could be faced by Brandon but what to do?

 

What he would do is unclear but if it was me I would entertain the decision but would need to know just who Coach 'X' had in mind to replace Buddy. Its one thing to suggest there is a problem with Buddy's philosophy but for me I'd want to understand the solution rather than a hypothetical there is somebody else I want, and research it, before making that decision.

 

The other thing to consider about Buddy is he is for all purposes a 'short timer' with the idea that he will be transitioning the GM role to Whaley at some point. He knows the clock is ticking on his tenure so whether that is this season on next should not matter much in the big view of things.

 

If winning is established as the highest priority of the organization then I think all options should be left on the table in order to reach that goal. Hearing that stated and then seeing it in action over this off season will be something to watch.

Edited by All_Pro_Bills
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