Deciphering OBD Code - Two Tidbits to Ponder

[Dr. Trooth]

I took two tidbits from the presser at OBD. One from Russ and one from Buddy. From my perspective, below is what I think each means and what potentially may evolve from each tidbit. Before I get into any of that, I'll state up front that I know Brandon is an "A" lister in marketing skills. He's clearly demonstrated that. That alone does not translate into being a top CEO. But, I think Russ, like many of us, is a WNYer that bleeds Red and Blue. Ralph has placed in his hands an enormous responsibility and he has to do something with it. He's quite young as NFL execs. at the very top go. So, now it becomes Russ' reputation and Russ' legacy. There is no one to hide behind anymore and to be cut slack for just being a good soldier following his marching orders. Yes, Ralph still owns the team, but Russ is mapping the path and driving the bus. Now it's on him and I really believe he intends to kick things up a notch.

 

TIDBIT ONE... In regards to the analytics and metrics...

"Managing the salary cap as it pertains to players likely means that the analytics will provide an additional layer in assessing what a player’s true worth is to the team based on advanced metrics of on field performance." To me it means that the Bills are going to not only identify underachievers, they're going to look at cost of specific players and on field benefits of their performance. Decoding... What are the Bills getting out of $$$ they've got invested in a player? Is it really a good value for the $$$ to carry players like McGee, Kelsay, Spencer Johnson, Barnett? And, what about Fitz? Certainly what about our $2-$3M inactive QB - TJax or even Kyle Williams (could he be offered up in a trade?) and Mario... are the Bills geting value or can they get younger and/or fill holes with the right street free agents? I also believe chronically injured players are going to be weighed and perhaps jetisoned or not be re-signed when their contract is up (Wood ?). I would expect some measure of player house cleaning in early March to clear cap space as well as some possible restructuring of contracts, which is typical regardless. It also may mean that with their own two free agents, they are going to establish their "true worth" not only based on their positional slotting in the NFL, but value to the team. So, McGee is a goner, ditto Barnett, ditto Kelsay, unless he takes a huge pay cut

 

TIDBIT TWO...As for Buddy's statement... “I’ve said we’re going to try to draft a quarterback, and we are,” said Nix. ”We may even get one in free agency, but we’re going to draft a young quarterback at some point.” He's toned down his earlier statement about the QB. Instead of pulling the string and pulling it early, now he's gonna "TRY" at "SOME POINT". That may be a signal that Russ is firmly in control and that Buddy had to take a few steps backward and is now on a short leash... and in a nicer way Russ has told Buddy to STFU.. which he couldn't do until Ralph gave him the reigns. Buddy may still be GM, but there are probably some duties that have been removed from his plate...and significant ones. I mean Russ can't be happy Buddy brought TJax in to the tune of $2m and for what? Getting back to the QB... was Russ' conversation with Gruden more about getting an unbiased assessment of Fitz or the team as a whole? I mean, if you want an honest assessment of someone in a private conversation, Gruden is exactly the kind of person who won't mince words and sugarcoat it. If Fitz was discussed, it could mean one of two things... either Fitz is going to be let go, or Fitz is going to be seriously challenged. With the FA crop out there, I don't see anyone that, even if they did challenge Fitz and win out, it ain't gonna be much of an improvement. I've not seen a QB worth a top 10 pick in the draft either. Maybe the media does, but they don't draft. Maybe the Bills don't make a decision by 3/3 on Fitz and eat his bonus, and then pending free agency and the draft developments, let him go in June. Any money owed him would go to the 2014 cap.

 

I definitely ain't going out and buy tix any time soon. Russ has a lot to prove. But, I am glad someone besides Ralph is calling the shots. At this point, until we see what develops on the coaching front and certainly FA & draft we won't have much of a clue about Russ and the direction of the Bills. And, I can tell by the 3rd preseason game what this team is gonna be.... I've called it dead on from Jauron's first preseason game forward.

[Chilly]

Russ said he didn't talk to Gruden

[DrDawkinstein]

TIDBIT TWO...As for Buddy's statement... “I’ve said we’re going to try to draft a quarterback, and we are,” said Nix. ”We may even get one in free agency, but we’re going to draft a young quarterback at some point.” He's toned down his earlier statement about the QB. Instead of pulling the string and pulling it early, now he's gonna "TRY" at "SOME POINT". That may be a signal that Russ is firmly in control and that Buddy had to take a few steps backward and is now on a short leash... and in a nicer way Russ has told Buddy to STFU.. which he couldn't do until Ralph gave him the reigns. Buddy may still be GM, but there are probably some duties that have been removed from his plate...and significant ones. I mean Russ can't be happy Buddy brought TJax in to the tune of $2m and for what? Getting back to the QB... was Russ' conversation with Gruden more about getting an unbiased assessment of Fitz or the team as a whole? I mean, if you want an honest assessment of someone in a private conversation, Gruden is exactly the kind of person who won't mince words and sugarcoat it. If Fitz was discussed, it could mean one of two things... either Fitz is going to be let go, or Fitz is going to be seriously challenged. With the FA crop out there, I don't see anyone that, even if they did challenge Fitz and win out, it ain't gonna be much of an improvement. I've not seen a QB worth a top 10 pick in the draft either. Maybe the media does, but they don't draft. Maybe the Bills don't make a decision by 3/3 on Fitz and eat his bonus, and then pending free agency and the draft developments, let him go in June. Any money owed him would go to the 2014 cap.

 

 

You read all of that into Buddy saying "try to" but ignore Russ's direct statements that he will not influence the player personnel and that he wants to empower the football guys to build their football team?

 

 

What do you "read into" these direct quotes? http://www.wkbw.com/news/local/Bills-Transcript--185373322.html

 

I am going to be real clear about one thing because I know you are going to ask it. I will not be drafting people. I will not be making the final decision on a free agent. I will empower the general manager, Buddy Nix, to do that. Do I have final authority and say? Yes. That is what Buddy Nix, the general manager, does. He identifies personnel. He runs that side of our operation. OK? I cannot be any clearer than that...

 

Buddy Nix is our general manager. Buddy Nix will run the football operation much like he has run it for the last three years. When you look at where we are today compared to where we were three years ago, it is unquestioned that our personnel and our roster is in a much better position than it was three years ago—which makes this a very attractive opportunity.

Edited January 2, 2013 by DrDareustein

[Best Player Available]

Nothing personal to Buddy Nix. But, the sooner his exit strategy is finalized. The sooner the Bills can look forward to a new era. One of possible long overdue success. It's stunning that he is still employed today. The only reason that's possible is because of how close the 2013 draft is and his considerable input in it(good or bad).

[Shoutbox]

Good insight, Dr. Trooth.

 

Regarding tidbit one: I wouldn't quite throw Fitz, KW, or Mario into the same category as the others you mentioned. Fitz is earning a salary commensurate with a mediocre starting NFL QB. KW has been consistently awesome until the past 2 seasons, due to very fixable leg pains. Mario should also be fully healthy and more productive with a better DC and maybe a better RDE opposite him next season.

 

As for tidbit two: hope you're right. I'd really hate to pass on Bjoern Werner or Manti Te'o for the next Blaine Gabbert.

[Malazan]

I also think the Bills have a plan to fix world hunger they will be revealing soon based on Brandon's comments.

[Dr. Trooth]

You read all of that into Buddy saying "try to" but ignore Russ's direct statements that he will not influence the player personnel and that he wants to empower the football guys to build their football team?

 

 

What do you "read into" these direct quotes? http://www.wkbw.com/...-185373322.html

 

Nope. I get what Russ is saying. But I look at it within the entire context of what Russ and Buddy said. I also know what happens when a young CEO takes over and their are "old schoolers" on board. Russ says Buddy will be doing his thing "much" like he has the past three years (much, but not exactly = different). That's somewhat vague and evasive. In reality, Buddy is 73 and "old school" as we all know. Now, he's going to be asked to incorporate hard data (analytics & metrics) to "do his thing" instead of just a "gut" feel. And, when Buddy's challenged on his "gut" feel vs. hard data, I don't think that will go over well with him at all. How about you? Buddy ain't gonna change his ways and he even mentioned that Whaley is transitioning into the GM position. So, either by design or by Russ re-defining roles and making step changes in transitioning Whaley to GM, Buddy is gonna lose power one decision at a time. And, ask yourself this question... will Buddy be GM at this time next year? I don't know about you, but I see an FO that knows they have to operate differently, get younger, new thinking, and bring their organization to "current" or "cutting edge" NFL status. Russ may lean on Buddy now because he's getting his feet under him. Sure he'll "empower" Buddy to do his job "now", but Buddy is not gonna have it carte blanche and Russ knows that long term Buddy is not a good fit if this team wants to make a quantum leap forward anytime soon. So, basically, with Whaley transitioning, I doubt seriously that Russ will allow Buddy to make a critical decision that may cause Whaley to have to clean up or take the team backward, when the transition is complete. I think Whaley is gonna have considerable input on the decisions Buddy is involved with. And, if you're the boss, knowing Buddy is "now" but not the future and Whaley is the "future" but not "now", which way are you likely to lean if it affects Brandon's long term vision?

[DrDawkinstein]

Nope. I get what Russ is saying. But I look at it within the entire context of what Russ and Buddy said. I also know what happens when a young CEO takes over and their are "old schoolers" on board. Russ says Buddy will be doing his thing "much" like he has the past three years (much, but not exactly = different). That's somewhat vague and evasive. In reality, Buddy is 73 and "old school" as we all know. Now, he's going to be asked to incorporate hard data (analytics & metrics) to "do his thing" instead of just a "gut" feel. And, when Buddy's challenged on his "gut" feel vs. hard data, I don't think that will go over well with him at all. How about you? Buddy ain't gonna change his ways and he even mentioned that Whaley is transitioning into the GM position. So, either by design or by Russ re-defining roles and making step changes in transitioning Whaley to GM, Buddy is gonna lose power one decision at a time. And, ask yourself this question... will Buddy be GM at this time next year? I don't know about you, but I see an FO that knows they have to operate differently, get younger, new thinking, and bring their organization to "current" or "cutting edge" NFL status. Russ may lean on Buddy now because he's getting his feet under him. Sure he'll "empower" Buddy to do his job "now", but Buddy is not gonna have it carte blanche and Russ knows that long term Buddy is not a good fit if this team wants to make a quantum leap forward anytime soon. So, basically, with Whaley transitioning, I doubt seriously that Russ will allow Buddy to make a critical decision that may cause Whaley to have to clean up or take the team backward, when the transition is complete. I think Whaley is gonna have considerable input on the decisions Buddy is involved with. And, if you're the boss, knowing Buddy is "now" but not the future and Whaley is the "future" but not "now", which way are you likely to lean if it affects Brandon's long term vision?

 

I get what youre sayin. Especially with the transitioning part, and Russ being the bridge between Nix and Whaley. Smart plan if that's what theyre going for.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Here is a scenario. What if the choice comes down to hiring an A-list coach, but that coach wants his own guy helping him evaluate talent for what he is trying to implement? Does Russ stick with his comments today that Buddy Nix is fully in control of all things personnel wise, or is an alternative path forward found to sign the A-list coach? Based on the last trip on this merry-go-round, working with Buddy Nix wasn't a high priority for several potential candidates, namely those that refused to even interview.

 

Replacing Chan Gailey with yet another Rich Kotite type coach is just going to be another example of the Bills blowing hot air without any implementation.

[Delete This Account]

Russ said he didn't talk to Gruden

 

i've heard same.

 

jw

[DrDawkinstein]

Here is a scenario. What if the choice comes down to hiring an A-list coach, but that coach wants his own guy helping him evaluate talent for what he is trying to implement? Does Russ stick with his comments today that Buddy Nix is fully in control of all things personnel wise, or is an alternative path forward found to sign the A-list coach? Based on the last trip on this merry-go-round, working with Buddy Nix wasn't a high priority for several potential candidates, namely those that refused to even interview.

 

Replacing Chan Gailey with yet another Rich Kotite type coach is just going to be another example of the Bills blowing hot air without any implementation.

 

Not just Nix, but more so Whaley. And I dont think Brandon has any plan on replacing Whaley or letting him go. The new coach will just have to be ok with that. Not sure there is a coach that disqualifies us from though. Maybe Reid? But is he really coming here?

[voodoo poonani]

Tidbit two: that'd go with Ian Rapoport talking about Whisenhunt and Alex Smith

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I took two tidbits from the presser at OBD. One from Russ and one from Buddy. From my perspective, below is what I think each means and what potentially may evolve from each tidbit. Before I get into any of that, I'll state up front that I know Brandon is an "A" lister in marketing skills. He's clearly demonstrated that. That alone does not translate into being a top CEO. But, I think Russ, like many of us, is a WNYer that bleeds Red and Blue. Ralph has placed in his hands an enormous responsibility and he has to do something with it. He's quite young as NFL execs. at the very top go. So, now it becomes Russ' reputation and Russ' legacy. There is no one to hide behind anymore and to be cut slack for just being a good soldier following his marching orders. Yes, Ralph still owns the team, but Russ is mapping the path and driving the bus. Now it's on him and I really believe he intends to kick things up a notch.

 

TIDBIT ONE... In regards to the analytics and metrics...

"Managing the salary cap as it pertains to players likely means that the analytics will provide an additional layer in assessing what a player’s true worth is to the team based on advanced metrics of on field performance." To me it means that the Bills are going to not only identify underachievers, they're going to look at cost of specific players and on field benefits of their performance. Decoding... What are the Bills getting out of $$$ they've got invested in a player? Is it really a good value for the $$$ to carry players like McGee, Kelsay, Spencer Johnson, Barnett? And, what about Fitz? Certainly what about our $2-$3M inactive QB - TJax or even Kyle Williams (could he be offered up in a trade?) and Mario... are the Bills geting value or can they get younger and/or fill holes with the right street free agents? I also believe chronically injured players are going to be weighed and perhaps jetisoned or not be re-signed when their contract is up (Wood ?). I would expect some measure of player house cleaning in early March to clear cap space as well as some possible restructuring of contracts, which is typical regardless. It also may mean that with their own two free agents, they are going to establish their "true worth" not only based on their positional slotting in the NFL, but value to the team. So, McGee is a goner, ditto Barnett, ditto Kelsay, unless he takes a huge pay cut

 

TIDBIT TWO...As for Buddy's statement... “I’ve said we’re going to try to draft a quarterback, and we are,” said Nix. ”We may even get one in free agency, but we’re going to draft a young quarterback at some point.” He's toned down his earlier statement about the QB. Instead of pulling the string and pulling it early, now he's gonna "TRY" at "SOME POINT". That may be a signal that Russ is firmly in control and that Buddy had to take a few steps backward and is now on a short leash... and in a nicer way Russ has told Buddy to STFU.. which he couldn't do until Ralph gave him the reigns. Buddy may still be GM, but there are probably some duties that have been removed from his plate...and significant ones. I mean Russ can't be happy Buddy brought TJax in to the tune of $2m and for what? Getting back to the QB... was Russ' conversation with Gruden more about getting an unbiased assessment of Fitz or the team as a whole? I mean, if you want an honest assessment of someone in a private conversation, Gruden is exactly the kind of person who won't mince words and sugarcoat it. If Fitz was discussed, it could mean one of two things... either Fitz is going to be let go, or Fitz is going to be seriously challenged. With the FA crop out there, I don't see anyone that, even if they did challenge Fitz and win out, it ain't gonna be much of an improvement. I've not seen a QB worth a top 10 pick in the draft either. Maybe the media does, but they don't draft. Maybe the Bills don't make a decision by 3/3 on Fitz and eat his bonus, and then pending free agency and the draft developments, let him go in June. Any money owed him would go to the 2014 cap.

 

I definitely ain't going out and buy tix any time soon. Russ has a lot to prove. But, I am glad someone besides Ralph is calling the shots. At this point, until we see what develops on the coaching front and certainly FA & draft we won't have much of a clue about Russ and the direction of the Bills. And, I can tell by the 3rd preseason game what this team is gonna be.... I've called it dead on from Jauron's first preseason game forward.

 

I like this analytical approach as we won't be hanging on to players because of Loyalty or emotional ties, which is how it should be perform or you are out.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Not just Nix, but more so Whaley. And I dont think Brandon has any plan on replacing Whaley or letting him go. The new coach will just have to be ok with that. Not sure there is a coach that disqualifies us from though. Maybe Reid? But is he really coming here?

Are there coaches out there that do not think along the same lines as Buddy Nix as far as how to construct a football team? Well, I for one certainly hope so. His results have been abysmal and his implementation fickle. If you were a coach in the 2013 NFL, would you sign up for a "let's move ahead in super slo mo" leadership direction? Chan Gailey did.

 

As far as Whaley, if he's as hip and on top of things as many hope to assume he is, then why fear that an A-list head coach would want him gone? If he's the cat's pajamas of 2013 NFL talent evaluation, he should be able to blow the candidate's socks off and be part of the sale -- the coach wants to come to work in Buffalo because Whaley is all over it.

 

As far as Reid, are we really already shortening the list of candidates based on Buffalo inferiority? Isn't the notion that Ralph Wilson is no longer in the driver's seat at least worth a few hours where one might fantasize that the Bills could actually be considered something other than an NFL farm team?

[DonInBuffalo]

I'm very skeptical about the whole concept of applying metrics to evaluate players. While that clearly has some practical application for fantasy football purposes, it just doesn't seem to fit in the real world. Arbitrary stats such as tackles or sacks tell you only a small portion of what a player actually contributes. More complex stats (for example, how well somebody sheds blockers) would involve such a large subjective component in determining their values it really doesn't seem like the metric analysis would add much if anything.

 

Metics in baseball makes much more sense. In that sport, the actions of the individual players are much more isolated and easier to evaluate independently of the other players.

[tito1]

I also think the Bills have a plan to fix world hunger they will be revealing soon based on Brandon's comments.

 

Comedic gold right here. How you haven't been signed by Saturdy Night Live is astonishing

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Here is a scenario. What if the choice comes down to hiring an A-list coach, but that coach wants his own guy helping him evaluate talent for what he is trying to implement? Does Russ stick with his comments today that Buddy Nix is fully in control of all things personnel wise, or is an alternative path forward found to sign the A-list coach? Based on the last trip on this merry-go-round, working with Buddy Nix wasn't a high priority for several potential candidates, namely those that refused to even interview.

 

Replacing Chan Gailey with yet another Rich Kotite type coach is just going to be another example of the Bills blowing hot air without any implementation.

 

He did say he could anything he wanted when he wanted so if he felt he had to have A-coach without Nix then Nix would be moved. That is if he truly sticks to his analytical approach.

[Cynical]

Nope. I get what Russ is saying. But I look at it within the entire context of what Russ and Buddy said. I also know what happens when a young CEO takes over and their are "old schoolers" on board. Russ says Buddy will be doing his thing "much" like he has the past three years (much, but not exactly = different). That's somewhat vague and evasive.

 

Here's reality. I think you are reading way too "much" into what you want to read.

If you truly did read what Russ said in context, you should realize Russ did not say "much" to be vague and evasive or anything in that nature. The word "much" was said in context of a generalization. Will he be doing "exactly" the same thing he did 3 years ago? No.

 

Three years ago, Nix was tasked to rebuild the team. Three years ago, he was laying the foundation of that rebuild. Since then, Nix has been building on that foundation. He will continue to do so. In short, Nix will be doing pretty "much" the same thing he has been doing the past 3 years.

 

I like this analytical approach as we won't be hanging on to players because of Loyalty or emotional ties, which is how it should be perform or you are out.

 

I think you better read what Russ said: "... analytics will provide an additional layer ... ".

 

The advanced metrics of on the field performance analytics is not replacing anything. It's adding to it. And nowhere does he state or imply that analysis will take precedent or priority over everything else.

[DrDawkinstein]

Are there coaches out there that do not think along the same lines as Buddy Nix as far as how to construct a football team? Well, I for one certainly hope so. His results have been abysmal and his implementation fickle. If you were a coach in the 2013 NFL, would you sign up for a "let's move ahead in super slo mo" leadership direction? Chan Gailey did.

 

Except that now we are 3 years into that process, and only one major hole (QB) and a few secondary holes (another WR, OLB upgrades, additional talent to secondary).

 

If Im a Head Coach candidate looking at this team, I see that Nix has built it from the lines out, with a couple of major offensive weapons, but that needs some tweaking, a couple of additions, and a good kick in the ass.

 

I dont think anyone would be dumb or arrogant enough to want to do a complete rebuild with new GM and starting from scratch on the roster. Nor do I want anyone who would think that is necessary.

 

As far as Whaley, if he's as hip and on top of things as many hope to assume he is, then why fear that an A-list head coach would want him gone? If he's the cat's pajamas of 2013 NFL talent evaluation, he should be able to blow the candidate's socks off and be part of the sale -- the coach wants to come to work in Buffalo because Whaley is all over it.

 

Im not worried about it. That's my point. I believe the next coach, whoever that is, will be stoked to work with Whaley.

 

As far as Reid, are we really already shortening the list of candidates based on Buffalo inferiority? Isn't the notion that Ralph Wilson is no longer in the driver's seat at least worth a few hours where one might fantasize that the Bills could actually be considered something other than an NFL farm team?

 

Not an inferiority complex. Just based on Conference, the situation he would be looking for, and the type of coach I think the Bills will be looking for. Doesnt mean its good or bad either way. Just not a good fit, imo.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Russ said he didn't talk to Gruden

 

Technically Brandon said that he didn't have dinner with Gruden.

 

I'm sure they didn't meet face to face but that doesn't mean that there wasn't a phone conversation.