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Lichtman's 13 Keys to the WH


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Pretty sure the guy who is arguing against this idea would take issue with the "little bump" he got from who his Dad was.

 

 

His dad, from all reports was quite a frugal guy. Mitt received a superior education. There's no question about it. Does everyone with a superior education end up hugely successful? I would fall on the side that Mitt is self-made.

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His dad, from all reports was quite a frugal guy. Mitt received a superior education. There's no question about it. Does everyone with a superior education end up hugely successful? I would fall on the side that Mitt is self-made.

 

hehe

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LA, my understanding is that Mitt didn't do anything with dad's cash.

 

He did do something with it. He gave it all ALL away to charity and created his current fortune on his own. And when someone starts bitching about how his father's fortunes helped him, it's usually a good time to remind them that he needed the help since he didn't get preferential acceptance and treatment simply because he was a black exchange student.

 

I'm not saying that was the deal with Obama, but people talk. They say things. Do I know if they're true? I do not. But Obama could clear this up in 10 seconds by releasing his college transcripts.

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The reality is that mitt had the choice to live as a spoiled child, but he chose not too. It is well documented (for those interested in the truth) that he lived a modest life throughout college, that he and Ann Romney lived in a 700 sq ft one bedroom apt when he was at Harvard , and that the only capital that was voluntarily accessible was some stock his father gave him of the auto company he led. He could of lived the priveledged life, but made a very honorable and commendable decision not too. From time to time they sold some of that stock to make ends meet, but in no way shape or form did he live lavishly. In fact it was quite the opposite.

 

Now some of the naysayers will say "yeah but he daddy's stock"

 

Well, yeah, but most people would of opted for daddy's money, would of lived in a nice apt, had a nice car etc. but that's not what he did.

 

He also didn't land any jobs because of George Romney either, Romney earned his money. And became one of the most successful private equity heads in the country. Not only did Bain capital make tremendous profits for themselves, retail investors but for pension and endowment funds, and as a result of their success and phenomenal profits, many net jobs were created.

 

Once George Romney passed away he inherited his fortune and donated 100% of it to his church.

 

 

When Romney was offered the opportunity to turn around the Olympics, which was rocked with scandal and a massive budget shortfall, he took the job on, succeeded and took a massive reduction in pay from Bain of. 100k a year and decided to forgo pay from the IOC

 

This is a respectable man, made decisions that over 95% wouldn't have by not taking his fathers money and became a self-made man, which is even more impressive considering he had the choice to do it the easy way.

 

The reality is that mitt had the choice to live as a spoiled child, but he chose not too. It is well documented (for those interested in the truth) that he lived a modest life throughout college, that he and Ann Romney lived in a 700 sq ft one bedroom apt when he was at Harvard , and that the only capital that was voluntarily accessible was some stock his father gave him of the auto company he led. He could of lived the priveledged life, but made a very honorable and commendable decision not too. From time to time they sold some of that stock to make ends meet, but in no way shape or form did he live lavishly. In fact it was quite the opposite.

 

Now some of the naysayers will say "yeah but he had daddy's stock"

 

Well, yeah, but most people would of opted for daddy's money, would of lived in a nice apt, had a nice car etc. but that's not what he did.

 

He also didn't land any jobs because of George Romney either, Romney earned his money. And became one of the most successful private equity heads in the country. Not only did Bain capital make tremendous profits for themselves, retail investors but for pension and endowment funds, and as a result of their success and phenomenal profits, many net jobs were created.

 

Once George Romney passed away he inherited his fortune and donated 100% of it to his church.

 

 

When Romney was offered the opportunity to turn around the Olympics, which was rocked with scandal and a massive budget shortfall, he took the job on, succeeded and took a massive reduction in pay from Bain of. 100k a year and decided to forgo pay from the IOC

 

This is a respectable man, made decisions that over 95% wouldn't have by not taking his fathers money and became a self-made man, which is even more impressive considering he had the choice to do it the easy way.

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I wouldn't hold out hope. Not sure about Dr. D, but I've gone a round with gugny before and there's not a lot of water in that well.

This well has a wife, son, job mortgage and real bills, buddy. When mom and dad stop paying your car insurance you'll be on my level. I'm busy for more than 12 hours a day. You spend that much time figuring out what Rush Limbaugh's drugged up ass wants you to say to people like me.

 

 

 

 

Don't know if you were being serious or not. You do tend to play that game. Regardless, Mitt made his name on his own.

Yes. Sons of governors always make their names on their own. Great observation.

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The reality is that mitt had the choice to live as a spoiled child, but he chose not too. It is well documented (for those interested in the truth) that he lived a modest life throughout college, that he and Ann Romney lived in a 700 sq ft one bedroom apt when he was at Harvard , and that the only capital that was voluntarily accessible was some stock his father gave him of the auto company he led. He could of lived the priveledged life, but made a very honorable and commendable decision not too. From time to time they sold some of that stock to make ends meet, but in no way shape or form did he live lavishly. In fact it was quite the opposite.

 

Now some of the naysayers will say "yeah but he daddy's stock"

 

Well, yeah, but most people would of opted for daddy's money, would of lived in a nice apt, had a nice car etc. but that's not what he did.

 

He also didn't land any jobs because of George Romney either, Romney earned his money. And became one of the most successful private equity heads in the country. Not only did Bain capital make tremendous profits for themselves, retail investors but for pension and endowment funds, and as a result of their success and phenomenal profits, many net jobs were created.

 

Once George Romney passed away he inherited his fortune and donated 100% of it to his church.

 

 

When Romney was offered the opportunity to turn around the Olympics, which was rocked with scandal and a massive budget shortfall, he took the job on, succeeded and took a massive reduction in pay from Bain of. 100k a year and decided to forgo pay from the IOC

 

This is a respectable man, made decisions that over 95% wouldn't have by not taking his fathers money and became a self-made man, which is even more impressive considering he had the choice to do it the easy way.

 

Yes. I'm sure you, me and everyone else on TBD suffered through attending Harvard and living in an all expenses paid apartment while living off of our father's stock. Jesus Christ and I thought the war veterans had it bad. Romney is a phucking real life hero.

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LOL my God can we all get off Romney being a self made man v. silver spoon product and back to the metrics of this prediction?

Who is best equipped to be our commander in chief dipshit? I'm a veteran who voluntarily served OUR country so narrow minded spoiled little phucks like you could spew your inaccuracies and be protected. So you tell me, pretty boy, why can Romney lead the most powerful nation in the world?

 

Only in like minded pea brains would one come to that conclusion

Pure brilliance. Did Rush write this for you, or Bill O'Reilly?

 

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Who is best equipped to be our commander in chief dipshit? I'm a veteran who voluntarily served OUR country so narrow minded spoiled little phucks like you could spew your inaccuracies and be protected. So you tell me, pretty boy, why can Romney lead the most powerful nation in the world?

 

 

Pure brilliance. Did Rush write this for you, or Bill O'Reilly?

 

LOL ya like World said I am generally on your team haha leave me alone my feelings are hurt. I'm just trying to talk about ... the topic.

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LOL ya like World said I am generally on your team haha leave me alone my feelings are hurt. I'm just trying to talk about ... the topic.

Trying to catch up too quickly, NewBills. My apologies. I misread.

Peace.

 

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I didn't know there were teams?

Funny you say that. There should be one team. The United States. We need to stop stepping on our own dicks and get out of our own way. Collectively. As a nation. Peace.

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Funny you say that. There should be one team. The United States. We need to stop stepping on our own dicks and get out of our own way. Collectively. As a nation. Peace.

 

Funny since you came here and effectively blasted conservatives with your retard spin and used your military experience as a reason to spout your retard spin.

 

Not surprised after reading the garbage you post on the shout box.

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Funny since you came here and effectively blasted conservatives with your retard spin and used your military experience as a reason to spout your retard spin.

 

Not surprised after reading the garbage you post on the shout box.

Used my military experience? Huh. And define my "retard spin," please. I'm not blasting conservatives, little boy. I'm blasting conservatives who can't back up what they spew with facts. You're in the same sack of shatnthat the kid who can't spell traveler is. Carry on young man.

 

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Me and gungy v. the world. Get w/ it.

 

Hell of an alliance you got there :P:lol:

 

Used my military experience? Huh. And define my "retard spin," please. I'm not blasting conservatives, little boy. I'm blasting conservatives who can't back up what they spew with facts. You're in the same sack of shatnthat the kid who can't spell traveler is. Carry on young man.

 

Right lemming :lol:

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Hell of an alliance you got there :P:lol:

 

 

 

Right lemming :lol:

Lemming. That kills me, seeing that I'm one of exactly two people in this thread tonight that isn't married to an ideology that he doesn't even understand. Crows. Loud in numbers. Cawww. Cawwww. Cawww. That's all anyone hears.

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Lemming. That kills me, seeing that I'm one of exactly two people in this thread tonight that isn't married to an ideology that he doesn't even understand. Crows. Loud in numbers. Cawww. Cawwww. Cawww. That's all anyone hears.

 

And which ideology would that be?

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Well I'm glad you're weeding out the men for your creepy quest for seeking boys.

 

Whatever floats your boat

There are some smart people here in the PPP. Even the right wingers. And you are making nobody proud, my friend. Not a Goddamn soul.

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There are some smart people here in the PPP. Even the right wingers. And you are making nobody proud, my friend. Not a Goddamn soul.

 

Join me Gungy. Join the liberal PPP brigade. But to do so, you must calm yourself. Go into the energy thread and read the debate and join opposing Romney's backwards energy policy. Join the debate on writing down mortgage interest. Make a thread about how he's the golden boy of economics but his policies (vague as they may be) are indistinguishable from standard GOP dogma. Hell make a general thread on how he stands for nothing. And yes, it is acceptable to post in opposition if someone claims that he is more self made than Obama...but remain calm in your dealings with the right here. Remember you will never change anybody's mind here on the candidate but you can have discussion on some issues and learn more about why Romney supporters believe in certain policies...you can even find areas where you can convince them there is valid argument for the other side (though you won't change their mind overall and your mind won't be changed).

 

In general just represent opposition to Romney policy well. They all think we're idiots and love to bash all policy not in line with right wing dogma...but show them it isn't true. And you can also find out there are some issues where they aren't evil or completely retarded either (wind tax credits not going to be one of them) but the point is...don't allow yourself to be fuel for the "liberal idiot" fire they love to see. Join me my gungified brother, walk with me to the promise land of PPP as we reign fire upon the heathen Rush Limbaugh minions and take our rightful seat at the throne of wisdom and leadership and all things wise in this world.

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Join me Gungy.

 

Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

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Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

 

Join me LA

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Yes. Join him. And Big Cat. And Park. And conner. And EII. You'll be in great company. And Gungy, you bring nothing but a higher level of discourse to this group. Be sure to jump in about how the only reason Obama hasn't been more successful is because the GOP hates everyone not earning $500K a year...and black people. Don't forget to ensure you don't post without first reading your latest Axelrod tweet.

And don't forget that it is vitally important that in order to address the tax code, that we MUST see mitts tax returns.

 

 

 

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Wow. Is this Gugny guy/girl anything other than a product of a sexual moment between Conner, DiN and EiL? It's like it came to PPP to just spread its special brand of e-coli. It's like bitter meets imbecile, and they both take on the other's bad qualities.

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This well has a wife, son, job mortgage and real bills, buddy. When mom and dad stop paying your car insurance you'll be on my level. I'm busy for more than 12 hours a day. You spend that much time figuring out what Rush Limbaugh's drugged up ass wants you to say to people like me.

 

 

 

Yes. Sons of governors always make their names on their own. Great observation.

$D0;)& 5U*%C #%H$E&% :$5&%* B7{#%A $(:9<#G@

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He also has experience sheltering his money so it does not go to helping the US.

 

 

Mitt paying more taxes will not help the USA, because we do not have an income problem, we have a spending problem.

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Join me Gungy. Join the liberal PPP brigade. But to do so, you must calm yourself. Go into the energy thread and read the debate and join opposing Romney's backwards energy policy. Join the debate on writing down mortgage interest. Make a thread about how he's the golden boy of economics but his policies (vague as they may be) are indistinguishable from standard GOP dogma. Hell make a general thread on how he stands for nothing. And yes, it is acceptable to post in opposition if someone claims that he is more self made than Obama...but remain calm in your dealings with the right here. Remember you will never change anybody's mind here on the candidate but you can have discussion on some issues and learn more about why Romney supporters believe in certain policies...you can even find areas where you can convince them there is valid argument for the other side (though you won't change their mind overall and your mind won't be changed).

 

In general just represent opposition to Romney policy well. They all think we're idiots and love to bash all policy not in line with right wing dogma...but show them it isn't true. And you can also find out there are some issues where they aren't evil or completely retarded either (wind tax credits not going to be one of them) but the point is...don't allow yourself to be fuel for the "liberal idiot" fire they love to see. Join me my gungified brother, walk with me to the promise land of PPP as we reign fire upon the heathen Rush Limbaugh minions and take our rightful seat at the throne of wisdom and leadership and all things wise in this world.

 

You act all leader like but leaders have guts. You don't even have enough guts to comment in the Sarah Palin thread?

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So Lichtman rejects polls all together and also finds the common thinking of "economy is everything" to be an overstatement. He claims to have 13 keys that don't miss and haven't since he started in the early '80s. Taken from wikipedia his keys are as follows:

  • Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Romney
     
  • Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Obama
     
  • Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Obama
     
  • Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Obama
     
  • Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Undecided
     
  • Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Romney
     
  • Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama
     
  • Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Obama
     
  • Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Obama
     
  • Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Obama
     
  • Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Obama
     
  • Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Romney
     
  • Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Obama

The bold portion is as predicted by him (not me) quite a while ago. I heard an interview w/ him on Sirius in the car earlier today (prompting this thread) and he says it's solid, hasn't changed and he still predicts Obama to win.

 

http://www.usnews.co...-to-win-in-2012

 

What does PPP think about his methodology and prediction?

 

 

Looks like a bunch of subjective crap put together in order to sell a book.

 

How many elections have been that hard to predict since the 1980's? 1 Maybe?

 

You could have 10 people answer those same questions and get 10 different answers. So are the 13 Keys the important part, or are the subjective answers he gives to those keys the important part?

 

Picking Reagan twice, Bush I once, Clinton twice, Bush II twice, and Obama once wasn't exactly rocket science. Hell, the only incumbent that didn't win in that time frame was Bush I. And Key #4 looks like it was developed specifically with Bush 1 in mind, making me wonder how he had these keys put together and used since the 80's.

 

This is a thread based on a stupid gimmick to make money, and you shouldn't be surprised by the stupidity it's generated.

Edited by Joe Miner
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