Picks 7 through 10 a crap shoot just look at 2006-2011

[section122]

I gotta make a correction here. Julio Jones was taken with the 6th pick in a trade by the Browns. The 7th pick was Aldon Smith by the niners who was by all accounts at the time a reach.

what they said about him before the draft:

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2823

St. Louis will be eyeing him with the 14th overall pick, but if they pass on him, Smith could slide down to the later part of the first round.

 

what he did:

31 tackles, 14 sacks, and 2 ff

 

So it still confirms your "crapshoot theory" but I wanted to clear this up.

[Maddog69]

the bottom line is that the draft is a crap shoot. Every year, there are 100 'experts' on this board touting this guy or that guy as a guaranteed starter for 15 years or whatever. Every year we talk about which guys are studs and which guys suck because their arms are too short or theirs hands aren't soft enough. And then the draft happens and people B word and complain because the Bills didnt take they guy they have a man cruch on while others state that whomever was seleceted in Rd7 is a guaranteed future hall of famer.

 

Nobody knows what will happen in the future. If a miracle happens and we get Kalil, there is still an excellent chance that he is a bust and never surpasses Chris Hairston on the depth chart.

 

Lets also not forget the fact that very few rookies come in and have an immediate impact. When they do, it is a bonus. We should not be looking for whomever is drafted to be an immediate stud. It took Marcel a half season to really start to show his true skill level, it might take this years rookies longer.

 

For the first time in over a decade, I feel like the Bills are being run by people who have a plan and are executing on that plan. For the furst time, I am not worried that they are going to screw this up. I am excited to see who they get.

Edited April 6, 2012 by Maddog69

[shoretalk]

I gotta make a correction here. Julio Jones was taken with the 6th pick in a trade by the Browns. The 7th pick was Aldon Smith by the niners who was by all accounts at the time a reach.

what they said about him before the draft:

http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2823

St. Louis will be eyeing him with the 14th overall pick, but if they pass on him, Smith could slide down to the later part of the first round.

 

what he did:

31 tackles, 14 sacks, and 2 ff

 

So it still confirms your "crapshoot theory" but I wanted to clear this up.

Thanks ... I had not had my coffee yet but nfl.com was my source so they need to fix their records. Even with coffee, I might have missed this one.

[maddenboy]

 

For the first time in over a decade, I feel like the Bills are being run by people who have a plan and are executing on that plan. For the furst time, I am not worried that they are going to screw this up as long as they dont take another running back in the first round, ever. I am excited to see who they get.

fyp

 

This

Edited April 6, 2012 by maddenboy

[OldTimer1960]

Of course you can!

 

What I was trying to do for all of us was rather than use conjecture or bad memories to actually look at the last several years' drafts to see who was drafted by teams other than the Bills and how they worked out.

 

At no time was I trying to say that this was an exclusive element of the draft for complete failures or for hidden superstars.

 

Now, what I would love to see is someone else digging back into Kiper's records to see how he did with these drafts because so many people hang on their every word or even invest their hard earned monies into their publications.

 

It was reassuring to see that linemen and wide receivers when allowed to develop can become solid starters (as noted earlier in responses to my post).

 

I can tell you that I have over 25 years of following the draft very closely including purchasing at one time or another (most several times) the following draft publications:

Kiper (many years), ProFootballWeekly(one of my favorites), Ourlad's, GM Jr (by former NFL scout - extremely detailed), Draft Scrapbook and I am sure there are others I am forgetting. The "experts" almost universally have similar ratings to where (round) players end up being picked at. They are all duped just as much or more often as the actual NFL teams.

 

This is a great thread because it addresses the unrealistic expectations that some have of "every first round pick must be an "impact" player or the team has failed" or "you shouldn't just target solid starting caliber players in the top 10". The reality is that even in the top 10, a team has done a pretty good job if they manage to get a good solid long-term starter.

Edited April 6, 2012 by OldTimer1960

[sllib olaffub]

Great research and good point about "proven performance". At #10, which of these can you say that about? Because I think this might be our list of choices at #10.

 

Tier I

Luke Kuechly -158 tackles as an outside linebacker, plays inside or outside, 16 tackle avg.per game in career

David DeCastro -extremely polished, smart, quick technician, best since Steve Hutchinson

 

Tier II

Stephon Gilmore -one of the 3 top CB's in the draft

Melvin Ingram -scheme-versatile OLB/DE

Riley Reiff -one of the top 3 tackles but likely not a franchise LT

Michael Brockers -3-4 guy, PFW: "big, strong, instinctive, versatile raw talent" (visted Pats yesterday)

Courtney Upshaw -3-4 guy but could be 4-3 edge setter

 

I think you absolutely go either Luke Kuechly - we NEED a playmaker at the linebacker spot - or, DeCastro is fine, too, if he turns out that good, it will only help us, OR, we go Floyd, if he's still there, because we NEED another WR threat about as much as we need LB help.

 

BTW - I trust Nix to be able to recognize NFL talent, and to be able to pick up PLAYERS even in the later rounds - because, I think he's done an outstanding job at recreating the Bills team, turning them into a Bigger, Stronger team that soon will be talented enough to handle the better teams in our conference.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

After reading the insightful commentary on this board, I decided to look at the facts of all the players selected in rounds 7-10 from 2006 through 2011 to see how successful they all were. Now, I did not have time to see what Kiper and the other experts thought about all these guys but there are very few bonafide superstars (I did not bother to put Peterson's stats in because we all know what he has done.).

 

Take a look and remember back when you may have been ranting about our picks ... maybe you were dreaming about one of these guys playing at OBD! And, I would love to read how the experts lined these guys up if anyone has time to do that.

 

The statistics listed initially are career statistics.

 

 

2006 DRAFT

7- Michael Huff SS Raiders – 324 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 9 interceptions. 2011 started 11 out of 12 games with Raiders with 32 tackles and 2 interceptions.

8 – BILLS PICK DONTE WHITNER – 2011 with Niners started 15 out of 15 games played with 49 tackles and 2 interceptions.

9 – Ernie Sims LB Lions – 361 tackles, 4.5 sacks and 1 interception. 2011 started 4 out of 13 games with COLTS 32 tackles.

10 – Matt Leinart QB Cardinals – 350 completions in 608 attempts 6.5 yards per pass. 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and 29 sacks. 2011 with Texans 2 games played 1 started 10 out of 14 with a 4.4 yard per pass average. 1 touchdown with 0 sacks or interceptions.

 

2007 DRAFT

 

7 – Adrian Peterson RB Minnesota - SUPERSTAR

8- Jamaal Anderson DE Atlanta – 95 careeer tackles with 7.5 sacks started one game in 2011 with Colts

9 – Ted Ginn Jr WR Miami – 159 career receptions 12.9 per catch 6 touchdowns. Started 3 games for Niners in 2011 kick return 23.2 yards per return with 3 touchdowns punt return 11.2 yards with 3 touchdowns

10 – Amobi Okoye DT Houston – 109 tackles over 4 years with 15 sacks; started one game in 2011 with Bears

BILLS PICK with #12 Lynch

 

2008 DRAFT

7- Sedrick Ellis DT New Orleans – 52 career tackles with 12.5 sacks; started 15 games with Saints in 2011

8 – Derrick Harvey DE Jaguars – 92 career tackles with 5 sacks; played in 5 games in 2011 with Denver and did not start any. Now with Bengals

9 – Keith Rivers LB Bengals – 121 career tackles with 2 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Bengals in 2011

10 – Jerod Mayo LB Patriots – 342 career tackles with 4.5 sacks and 2 interceptions; started 13 games with Patriots in 2011

BILLS PICK with #11 McKelvin

 

2009 DRAFT

 

7 – Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Raiders – 99 career receptions (*2011 – 64 receptions (21 in last 3 games) with 15.2 per catch) 14.8 per catch with 16 career touchdowns. Started 14 games with Raiders in 2011

8 – Eugene Monroe OT Jaguars – 42 starts in 45 games player (14 starts in 15 games in 2011 with Jag's)

9 – BJ Raji NT Packers – 62 total tackles with 10.5 sacks. After only 1 start in his rookie season, he has started all 16 games in each of 2010 and 2011.

10 – Michael Crabtree WR Niners – 175 receptions 2240 total yards 12.8 per reception with 12 touchdowns. Started 14 of 15 games played in 2011 with 874 total reception yards.

BILLS PICK with #11 Maybin

2010 DRAFT

7 – Joe Haden CB Browns – 110 tackles, 2 sacks and 6 interceptions. Started 15 out of 15 games with Browns in 2011 with 0 interceptions, 53 tackles and 1 sack.

8 – Rolando McClain LB Raiders – 136 tackles 5.5 sacks with 1 interception. Started 14 of 15 games in 2011 with Raiders with 77 tackles and 5 sacks (1 safety).

9 - BILLS PICK with SPILLER

10 – Tyson Alualu DT Jaguars – 50 tackles with 6 sacks. Started 16 out of 16 games in 2011 with Jags and had 21 tackles with 2.5 sacks.

 

2011 DRAFT

7 – Julio Jones WR Atlanta – Started 13 of 13 games with 54 receptions and a 17.8 per catch gain (total yards 959) and 8 touchdowns

8 – Jake Locker QB Tennessee – Played in 5 games with 34 completions in 66 attempts and per pass average of 8.2 yards with 4 touchdowns and sacked 5 times. 0 interceptions.

9 – Tyron Smith OT Dallas – Started all 16 games

10 – Blaine Gabbert QB Jaguars – Started 14 of 15 games played. 210 completions out of 413 attempts with per pass average of 5.4 yards. 12 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Sacked 40 times.

BILLS PICK with #3 DAREUS

Thanks for the hard work.

 

You might want to edit the bolded part of your first sentence, it threw me off at first.

Edited April 6, 2012 by San Jose Bills Fan

[apulshunny]

What this tells me is that people shouldn't get hung up on taking the "10th rated guy" (as if this was written on tablets brought down from Mount Sinai) at the 10th pick as, in actuality, the 7th through 20th rated guys are interchangable from a "value" perspective.

 

The focus should be on who can play/contribute/fit the scheme most effectively, rather than maximizing "draft value," which is media-driven (ESPN/Kiper) concept....

 

IF you cannot find a trade partner, then I agree that picking production, over potential at the time is prudent, but using the idea of the draft value system by trading picks is underutilized by GM's. I think NE is the best at that practice.

[spartacus]

I can tell you that I have over 25 years of following the draft very closely including purchasing at one time or another (most several times) the following draft publications:

Kiper (many years), ProFootballWeekly(one of my favorites), Ourlad's, GM Jr (by former NFL scout - extremely detailed), Draft Scrapbook and I am sure there are others I am forgetting. The "experts" almost universally have similar ratings to where (round) players end up being picked at. They are all duped just as much or more often as the actual NFL teams.

 

This is a great thread because it addresses the unrealistic expectations that some have of "every first round pick must be an "impact" player or the team has failed" or "you shouldn't just target solid starting caliber players in the top 10". The reality is that even in the top 10, a team has done a pretty good job if they manage to get a good solid long-term starter.

 

Good teams find good players in the draft

 

 

Bad teams are bad because they pick bad players in the draft (their talent evaluators blow - sound familiar)

 

The original premise that 6-10 is a crap shoot is just supporting the premise that the crappy teams picking in those spots can't identify talent.

 

Every year good front offices like the Ravens and Packers are finding impact players with their picks - even though the crappy teams picking ahead of them hogged all of the highly touted crappy players

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shoretalk]

Thanks for the hard work.

 

You might want to edit the bolded part of your first sentence, it threw me off at first.

I went back to do the edit and on my original post nothing in the first sentence is in bold.

[billnutinphoenix]

Great research and good point about "proven performance". At #10, which of these can you say that about? Because I think this might be our list of choices at #10.

 

Tier I

Luke Kuechly -158 tackles as an outside linebacker, plays inside or outside, 16 tackle avg.per game in career

David DeCastro -extremely polished, smart, quick technician, best since Steve Hutchinson

 

Tier II

Stephon Gilmore -one of the 3 top CB's in the draft

Melvin Ingram -scheme-versatile OLB/DE

Riley Reiff -one of the top 3 tackles but likely not a franchise LT

Michael Brockers -3-4 guy, PFW: "big, strong, instinctive, versatile raw talent" (visted Pats yesterday)

Courtney Upshaw -3-4 guy but could be 4-3 edge setter

 

 

I have wanted DeCastro because he almost has no weaknesses and is the surest thing at pick 10...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I went back to do the edit and on my original post nothing in the first sentence is in bold.

I meant what I had bolded in your first sentence.

 

You said rounds 7-10 instead of picks 7-10.

 

It doesn't matter at all… I've just been a bit confused lately.

 

 

To me your study means that you just want to get a good player in those spots, regardless of position. I remember the Jags traded up for Derrick Harvey because they were so desperate for a pass rusher.

 

As I scan the list of picks I recall most of them as being picks which address a need. The Bills and Raiders were buying into the new idea that safeties who could cover were extremely valued commodities. More teams these days simply move failed corners to safety.

 

On another thought, if a team is uncertain as to who to pick and is gonna roll the dice, I would rather take a chance on a player with great upside as opposed to a "safe" pick who might still bust by being a mediocrity for his whole career.

[deep2evans]

Good teams find good players in the draft

 

 

Bad teams are bad because they pick bad players in the draft (their talent evaluators blow - sound familiar)

 

The original premise that 6-10 is a crap shoot is just supporting the premise that the crappy teams picking in those spots can't identify talent.

 

Every year good front offices like the Ravens and Packers are finding impact players with their picks - even though the crappy teams picking ahead of them hogged all of the highly touted crappy players

 

came here to post this.

 

it can be said over and over and over that "the draft is a crapshoot", but c'mon, were not picking names out of a hat here. it takes a skill to identify good talent. the best teams are able to do it more frequently than bad teams. period.

[Kelly the Dog]

Thanks for the work and a very good thread. It's been said before but draft reviews are very fluid and change from year to year about the same draft. There is no definitive answer about a draft until 4-5 years later, IMO, when their contracts are up. And our opinions on these guys may change 4-5 times within that 4-5 year time period. Not saying that we shouldn't evaluate drafts and give them grades right away and after 1-2-3-4 years, it's fun as hell and the reason there are message boards. But a typical #1 draft choice in retrospect between the first five years of his career will often change dramatically, and often a few different times.

 

Crabtree still may or may not be a superstar. Spiller still may or may not. Even Gabbert or Locker. Look at Aaron Rodgers.

[OldTimer1960]

Good teams find good players in the draft

 

 

Bad teams are bad because they pick bad players in the draft (their talent evaluators blow - sound familiar)

 

The original premise that 6-10 is a crap shoot is just supporting the premise that the crappy teams picking in those spots can't identify talent.

 

Every year good front offices like the Ravens and Packers are finding impact players with their picks - even though the crappy teams picking ahead of them hogged all of the highly touted crappy players

 

Well, I agree that the teams that are better have generally drafted better - guess that stands to reason. But I don't think that even the best drafting teams are immune from mistakes, even in the first round. For instance, Green Bay drafted Justin Harrell at #16 (they've cut him) and they drafted AJ Hawk at #5 (they cut him and re-signed him recently to a lower contract). Hawk has been OK, not great and Harrell hardly played at all. Baltimore does have a pretty impressive record, but they did draft Kyle Boller in the middle of the first round, so they aren't perfect either.

 

Still, I agree with your general premise that better teams draft better, but I still argue that the draft is not an exact science.

[spartacus]

Well, I agree that the teams that are better have generally drafted better - guess that stands to reason. But I don't think that even the best drafting teams are immune from mistakes, even in the first round. For instance, Green Bay drafted Justin Harrell at #16 (they've cut him) and they drafted AJ Hawk at #5 (they cut him and re-signed him recently to a lower contract). Hawk has been OK, not great and Harrell hardly played at all. Baltimore does have a pretty impressive record, but they did draft Kyle Boller in the middle of the first round, so they aren't perfect either.

 

Still, I agree with your general premise that better teams draft better, but I still argue that the draft is not an exact science.

 

good teams find good players everywhere in the draft

 

 

Green Bay took Jordy Nelson - the bills took James Hardy

 

Ravens found Ed Reed and Ray Lewis at the end of round 1

 

Bills took Troup and the Pats took Gronkowski

 

It's all about talent evaluation and the plan to build a contender

 

The bills have focused on small permimater players (DBs, RBs, WRs) for a decade and have been pushed around for the same time frame

 

They have not had a plan and have been even worse in identifying talent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[KOKBILLS]

David DeCastro -extremely polished, smart, quick technician, best since Steve Hutchinson

 

Well...We'll see...That's some MAJOR rarefied air though...

 

Hutch is a 7 time ALL-Pro and 2 time Offensive Lineman of the Year in the NFL...He's Started 157 Games in 11 Season...

 

We'll see where DeCastro rates in a decade...

 

Go Blue!...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

good teams find good players everywhere in the draft

 

Green Bay took Jordy Nelson - the bills took James Hardy

 

Ravens found Ed Reed and Ray Lewis at the end of round 1

 

Bills took Troup and the Pats took Gronkowski

 

It's all about talent evaluation and the plan to build a contender

 

The bills have focused on small permimater players (DBs, RBs, WRs) for a decade and have been pushed around for the same time frame

 

They have not had a plan and have been even worse in identifying talent

No one can argue that perennially good teams are better at acquiring talent than perennially bad teams.

 

You didn't pick the best examples of this though.

 

The Bills liked Jordy Nelson but he was already gone by the time they picked.

 

Some teams had Gronk off their boards due to medical concerns.

 

 

[Lurker]

Well, I agree that the teams that are better have generally drafted better - guess that stands to reason. But I don't think that even the best drafting teams are immune from mistakes, even in the first round. For instance, Green Bay drafted Justin Harrell at #16 (they've cut him) and they drafted AJ Hawk at #5 (they cut him and re-signed him recently to a lower contract). Hawk has been OK, not great and Harrell hardly played at all. Baltimore does have a pretty impressive record, but they did draft Kyle Boller in the middle of the first round, so they aren't perfect either.

Green Bay draft history

 

Ravens draft history

 

Hits and misses, just like everybody else.

 

It helps to be drafted by a good team with fewer holes to fill and coaches that can put young players in a better position to succeed.

[Toshiero]

Trade down