SDS Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I don't ever remember seeing this issue discussed, but this seems back-asswards to me. Let's say Miami beats the Bills this weekend and then both teams lose out. Both teams end the season 5-11 and therefore strength of schedule determines draft order. However, look what happens. Miami defeats the Bills twice, thereby LOWERING their SoS by making their opponent worse. The Bills lose twice to Miami and therefore RAISE their SoS number. So, the act of beating the Bills twice raises Miami's chance of holding the tie-breaker against them in the draft. That seems.... wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not if you assume that every team tries its hardest to win every game. Then for two teams with identical records, the one who played an easier schedule is probably worse, and thus needs more help in the form of a higher pick. In terms of your specific example, think of it this way: Miami beating us does make their tie-breaker worse, but the tie-breaker only gets applied because they beat us in the first place. So they drop down from definitely picking ahead of us based on record, to potentially picking ahead of us based on a tie-breaker. Does that make sense, or am I out in left field here? Incidentally, some people have suggested a Loser Bowl of sorts, where the bottom two teams play to get the #1 pick (awarded to the winner, of course). I think it's a cool idea that probably won't ever get any serious traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 (edited) I don't ever remember seeing this issue discussed, but this seems back-asswards to me. Let's say Miami beats the Bills this weekend and then both teams lose out. Both teams end the season 5-11 and therefore strength of schedule determines draft order. However, look what happens. Miami defeats the Bills twice, thereby LOWERING their SoS by making their opponent worse. The Bills lose twice to Miami and therefore RAISE their SoS number. So, the act of beating the Bills twice raises Miami's chance of holding the tie-breaker against them in the draft. That seems.... wrong. Except they dont play the exact same opponents (besides each other). Bills play(ed) Bengals, Titans (combined 14-12 so far) Dolphins play(ed) Browns, Texans (combined 14-12 so far) I think the overall SOS will also depend upon where these teams end up. So if we lose this weekend, we should be preferentially rooting for the Browns and Texans from here on out. No ? Edited December 16, 2011 by Fan in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny33 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Not if you assume that every team tries its hardest to win every game. Then for two teams with identical records, the one who played an easier schedule is probably worse, and thus needs more help in the form of a higher pick. In terms of your specific example, think of it this way: Miami beating us does make their tie-breaker worse, but the tie-breaker only gets applied because they beat us in the first place. So they drop down from definitely picking ahead of us based on record, to potentially picking ahead of us based on a tie-breaker. Does that make sense, or am I out in left field here? Incidentally, some people have suggested a Loser Bowl of sorts, where the bottom two teams play to get the #1 pick (awarded to the winner, of course). I think it's a cool idea that probably won't ever get any serious traction. I agree with the OP's point. In the case of teams finishing with similar records, the head-to-head record should take precedence over strength of schedule. So if the Bills finish 5-11 but lose twice to Miami, who finish with the same record, but Buffalo's SoS is considered stronger, Buffalo should get the prior selection in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 but they beat a sucky team us we beat NE, OAK, KC, Wash and Philly. It doesnt make sense till ya look at it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 (edited) Ah - an odd loophole (not really though) on a secondary tie breaker. Interesting but frankly I don't really care thaaaat much. Edited December 16, 2011 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Doesn't matter, the Bills beat Miami, AND Denver and lose to NE (If they play their starters). We finsh 7 - 9 or 8 - 8 top 15 pick.. Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt in KC Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I don't ever remember seeing this issue discussed, but this seems back-asswards to me. Let's say Miami beats the Bills this weekend and then both teams lose out. Both teams end the season 5-11 and therefore strength of schedule determines draft order. However, look what happens. Miami defeats the Bills twice, thereby LOWERING their SoS by making their opponent worse. The Bills lose twice to Miami and therefore RAISE their SoS number. So, the act of beating the Bills twice raises Miami's chance of holding the tie-breaker against them in the draft. That seems.... wrong. I don't think Strength of schedule is considered as high on the tie-break list as you think. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures If it's just breaking a tie for the Bills and Dolphins it looks like it's this: Two Clubs1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5.Strength of victory. 6.Strength of schedule. etc. If the Bills, Dolphins and others: Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format). 1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs). 2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5.Strength of victory. 6.Strength of schedule. etc. I don't think they follow the "TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION" rules since I think that's just looking for a division winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 (edited) I don't think Strength of schedule is considered as high on the tie-break list as you think. http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures If it's just breaking a tie for the Bills and Dolphins it looks like it's this: If the Bills, Dolphins and others: I don't think they follow the "TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION" rules since I think that's just looking for a division winner. TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order. The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last. The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage. The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage. The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage. If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip. For determining draft selection order, the first tie breaker is strength of schedule. GO BILLS!!! Edited December 16, 2011 by K-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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