Jauronimo Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 (edited) Finished watching a few documentaries on Netflix, notably A Crude Awakening which made a compelling case for peak oil. While its common knowledge that oil is a limited resource, the time frame laid out by those subscribing to peak oil and implications if that theory is correct, are alarming. Theory: -We will see oil production peak in the next 10 years, and subsequently decline until the resource is exhausted, which could happen in as few as 100 years but may last for 200 years if demand and consumption decline. -There is no resource capable of meeting our energy demands once oil production really declines. Wind, nuclear, solar and hydro can't even begin to fill the void. Coal and natural gas, which are also limited in nature, will be used to bridge the gap delaying the inevitable. Unless new technologies can unlock untapped energy reserves, the implications range FROM - the extreme of a sudden energy crash and ensuing chaos, war, disease, famine, starvation, zombies, oprah, your typical post apocalyptic scenario, which brings the population back to pre-industrial revolution levels - TO - our lifestyles are totally unsustainable which leads to greater urbanization, end to cars and personal transit, end to airlines, but a relatively peaceful and smooth transition. How credible is peak oil theory? The most comforting rebuttal I've found is another "oil expert" who essentially said how can we be sure there isn't another great oil find out there. Since Hopefully our expert experts here in PPP, can weigh in on how long our oil supply will last, the credibility of peak oil theory, opposing viewpoints, what substitutes are available, the viability of Hydrogen and other technologies in development, etc. My opinion; I'm going to hold off on stockpiling guns, canned food and seeds but proceed with the whiskey stockpile just to hedge my bets. I think we have yet to realize the full capacity of the middle east and peak oil theory understates our remaining time. I'm not very optimistic about our alternatives to oil, though, but I'm not even a 10th rate DC Tom, according to the latest polls, so what do I know? Edited November 7, 2011 by Jauronimo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivier in france Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Finished watching a few documentaries on Netflix, notably A Crude Awakening which made a compelling case for peak oil. While its common knowledge that oil is a limited resource, the time frame laid out by those subscribing to peak oil and implications if that theory is correct, are alarming. Theory: -We will see oil production peak in the next 10 years, and subsequently decline until the resource is exhausted, which could happen in as few as 100 years but may last for 200 years if demand and consumption decline. -There is no resource capable of meeting our energy demands once oil production really declines. Wind, nuclear, solar and hydro can't even begin to fill the void. Coal and natural gas, which are also limited in nature, will be used to bridge the gap delaying the inevitable. Unless new technologies can unlock untapped energy reserves, the implications range FROM - the extreme of a sudden energy crash and ensuing chaos, war, disease, famine, starvation, zombies, oprah, your typical post apocalyptic scenario, which brings the population back to pre-industrial revolution levels - TO - our lifestyles are totally unsustainable which leads to greater urbanization, end to cars and personal transit, end to airlines, but a relatively peaceful and smooth transition. How credible is peak oil theory? The most comforting rebuttal I've found is another "oil expert" who essentially said how can we be sure there isn't another great oil find out there. Since Hopefully our expert experts here in PPP, can weigh in on how long our oil supply will last, the credibility of peak oil theory, opposing viewpoints, what substitutes are available, the viability of Hydrogen and other technologies in development, etc. My opinion; I'm going to hold off on stockpiling guns, canned food and seeds but proceed with the whiskey stockpile just to hedge my bets. I think we have yet to realize the full capacity of the middle east and peak oil theory understates our remaining time. I'm not very optimistic about our alternatives to oil, though, but I'm not even a 10th rate DC Tom, according to the latest polls, so what do I know? what drives me crazy in all those theories is that everybody is throwing nuclear energy away... a strong and almost unlimited energy if we find technologies to make it safer and cleaner (which IMO do not seem so un-doable)... when i hear Japan or Germany stopping all nuclear projects and planning a complete stop of their nuclear activities i wonder what they are really thinking about!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 what drives me crazy in all those theories is that everybody is throwing nuclear energy away... a strong and almost unlimited energy if we find technologies to make it safer and cleaner (which IMO do not seem so un-doable)... when i hear Japan or Germany stopping all nuclear projects and planning a complete stop of their nuclear activities i wonder what they are really thinking about!! I have heard that there isn't enough uranium for nuclear power to be a viable long term substitute for fossil fuel dependence, but I've also read that uranium exploration isn't even near comprehensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 (edited) I think for this very reason the USG, however one feels about it, has been setting policy and incentive to encourage alternative energy sources.... IMHO, the biggest issues with finite oil supplies is not that it will "run out", because I don't think that will ever happen (as another dominant sources takes over), it will be cost to obtain and extract the next new find. From what I understand the light sweet crude, the easy stuff to extract and refine is what is becoming much more scarce.... the new finds have been lesser quality raw material. i.e. harder to get and harder to refine into product. As oil increases in price, I think you will see consumption behavior change- I see more public transport projects as people save the individual care for weekends, special trips. For the USA, I find it troubling that for a long, long time we have not had a cohesive, bi-partisan Energy Policy even as evidence of supply is dwinlding.... Edited November 7, 2011 by B-Large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 If we let peak oil destroy us it will be because of willful stupidity more than anything else. There are no technological blocks that stops us from maintaining livable standards. The path is pretty clear 1. Electricity generation will come from safer Nuclear power, Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors, subcritical accelerator-driven systems, and eventually nuclear fusion. natural gas and geothermal/concentrated solar hybrid plants can serve as the bridge to nuclear power. 2. Transportation will be increasingly electrified ( drivers of the Volt which has 35-40 miles of electric range have been doing between 75%-80% of their miles on electricity) future versions with better batteries could easily have 80-120 electric range which would increase the miles traveled on electricity to 90-95%. Biofuels or Coal gasification to liquid fuel can make up the 5-10% left. 3. Efficiency - it is possible to achieve equivalent home comfort levels at 1/3rd- 1/10th energy usage - Amory B. Lovins at the Rocky mountain institute is a good resource another one is Monolithic Dome institute - Remember if you cut your energy usage by 2/3rds (while achieving the same ends) it's equivalent to tripling your energy supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buff_bills4ever Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 (edited) 5 Energy Solutions designed by Supervillians Interesting article I read the other day. It is a comedy site, so it's trying to be funny rather than comprehensive, but that solar wind collector sounds amazing. As does tapping into geothermal energy. Edited November 7, 2011 by Buff_bills4ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 5 Energy Solutions designed by Supervillians Interesting article I read the other day. It is a comedy site, so it's trying to be funny rather than comprehensive, but that solar wind collector sounds amazing. As does tapping into geothermal energy. I'm partial to the electric eel solution... In perhaps the most uncreative vision of the future in the history of mankind, the eel tree's inventor is quoted as saying, "If we could gather up all the electric eels from all around the world we would be able to light up an unimaginably large Christmas tree." Solve the global energy crisis? Naaah. Huge Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 (edited) I think for this very reason the USG, however one feels about it, has been setting policy and incentive to encourage alternative energy sources.... There is nothing to add here except to say that last week's gratuitous Brigitte Neilson/Ivan Drago reference is nicely followed up with a Tim Curry avatar. A Janet Weiss image can't be far away. Edited November 7, 2011 by LABillzFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 There is nothing to add here except to say that last week's gratuitous Brigitte Neilson/Ivan Drago reference is nicely followed up with a Tim Curry avatar. A Janet Weiss image can't be far away. I did not think twice about having a tranny as my avatar..... nice call on Tim Curry- did you know we was Pennywise in IT as well.... creepy I'd do Janet Weiss.... she wanted to be dirty, I could help.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Technological change, substitution, and conservation mean we transition to other sources as the price of oil rises. The problem is those dam speculators won't let fundamental factors slowly increase prices, and instead we get price volatility which creates uncertainty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_In_Norfolk Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 It's a good time to buy oil stock, imo. Look, we have 9% unemployment and gas is still pretty expensive, imagine if just half those people get decent jobs! Oil prices are already a concern and are holding back economic growth, something should be done now, just because its the smart thing to do. Solar is really taking off and will probably only get better, and probably a lot better. 30 years from now I would imagine we should/better be on our way to a new energy future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Technological change, substitution, and conservation mean we transition to other sources as the price of oil rises. The problem is those dam speculators won't let fundamental factors slowly increase prices, and instead we get price volatility which creates uncertainty.... What technology, what substitutes and conserve how? Is there another vast energy source that advanced technology will allow us to tap? Solar is incredibly far from being a viable source to carry the load, if thats even possible. Hydrogen makes sense from an abundance stand point, but requires massive energy inputs as well. Wind power is intermittent and low yielding. Right now substitutes to oil and coal make up small fractions of global energy usage. And that isn't just due to lack of development. There isn't any existing technology that looks like it can one day end our reliance on oil. In other words, we have no idea where our energy will come from in the future. Right now, our substitution is largely coal for oil. We burn coal to produce electricity that produces electric batteries and bio-diesel. We conserve one fossil fuel at the expense of another. Conservation will be challenge as car ownership in India and China takes hold. Oil demand in those two nations is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade. As it stands, we HOPE technological advancement, substitution and conservation allows us to seamlessly transition to another energy source. How we'll do it is a big unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 You should check out the Doc "Collapse" as it discusses Peak Oil as well. It serves more as a chronicle of one man's earnest obsession but its very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 You should check out the Doc "Collapse" as it discusses Peak Oil as well. It serves more as a chronicle of one man's earnest obsession but its very interesting. I actually watched Collapse first which spurred my interest in the Peak Oil theory. I had heard the term referenced before but wasn't aware that peak oil had actually gained some traction among the scientific community. Thought it was just Hubbard's prediction from the 1970s. Collapse was engaging, but Mr. Ruppert seems to be a little imbalanced so I looked for a second opinion. It was an interesting watch but he comes unglued toward the end and a little digging into his personal life revealed that he's a bit out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I actually watched Collapse first which spurred my interest in the Peak Oil theory. I had heard the term referenced before but wasn't aware that peak oil had actually gained some traction among the scientific community. Thought it was just Hubbard's prediction from the 1970s. Collapse was engaging, but Mr. Ruppert seems to be a little imbalanced so I looked for a second opinion. It was an interesting watch but he comes unglued toward the end and a little digging into his personal life revealed that he's a bit out there. don't think there's any doubt "he's a bit out there" but that doesn't mean he's wrong. i also found "collapse" intriguing and had read enough on peak oil to at least be concerned about the possibility of it's existence. from what i've read, i think it's more likely than not that we've already reached it. there seems to be widespread agreement that most oil producing countries either knowingly or mistakenly overestimate their reserves. if that's actually true, then demand will outreach supply quite soon and the disparity will only worsen. there is no viable alternative source including nuclear currently available to replace fossil fuel. fracking shale oil appears the best bet but it's difficult, expensive and not yet proven capable to bridge the projected gap. as ruppert pointed out, there's a reason way every recent war has involved an oil producing nation. your'e not paranoid if you end up being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I did not think twice about having a tranny as my avatar..... nice call on Tim Curry- did you know we was Pennywise in IT as well.... creepy I'd do Janet Weiss.... she wanted to be dirty, I could help.... Not just a tranvestite, but a sweet transvestite. That movie peaked while I was in college. It was a regular weekend event for us. Saw it way too many times to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Technological change, substitution, and conservation mean we transition to other sources as the price of oil rises. The problem is those dam speculators won't let fundamental factors slowly increase prices, and instead we get price volatility which creates uncertainty.... Yeah, like near term volatility in the energy markets is having an effect on the long term R&D plans of the global oil giants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Large Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Not just a tranvestite, but a sweet transvestite. That movie peaked while I was in college. It was a regular weekend event for us. Saw it way too many times to admit. Give yourself over to absolute pleasure..... My wife and our friends go the screening every year for Halloween.... We dress up, go have cocktails and settle in for a crazy time.... I have yet to go as Frankenfurter, but there is no shortage every year!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 If Hubbard was just another guy, I'd be more likely to only consider him as a single, relatively insignificant data point. But the fact that he accurately predicted peak oil production in the US 20+ years before it happened sort of makes you sit up and take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 If Hubbard was just another guy, I'd be more likely to only consider him as a single, relatively insignificant data point. But the fact that he accurately predicted peak oil production in the US 20+ years before it happened sort of makes you sit up and take notice. Wasn't he off by a factor of decades? That's important because the theory also ignores the efficacy of oil sands recovery and Arctic reserves. Never mind the likely substitution of ample natural gas for much of oil use. And there's that drilling in ANWAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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