Simon Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wasn't he off by a factor of decades? That's important because the theory also ignores the efficacy of oil sands recovery and Arctic reserves. Never mind the likely substitution of ample natural gas for much of oil use. And there's that drilling in ANWAR. I'm not an expert on the matter but from what I understand he nailed it pretty tight at a time when people were telling him he was a loon and needed to shut up. It was at least close enough to pay attention to what else he had to say. I don't know how his formula accounted for geopolitics, advances in retrieval methods or factored in the ways we might alter our behavior in response to recognizing that supplies are limited. But he's probably worth paying some attention to. Although, I was under the assumption that he predicted peak global production for sometime around the turn of the century, so he's already off on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Yeah, like near term volatility in the energy markets is having an effect on the long term R&D plans of the global oil giants. Hmmm...I thought I was going to get magox to bite on that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 Wasn't he off by a factor of decades? That's important because the theory also ignores the efficacy of oil sands recovery and Arctic reserves. Never mind the likely substitution of ample natural gas for much of oil use. And there's that drilling in ANWAR. I think he nailed the time frame for peak oil production in the US, but when he applied the same model to global production his hypothesis did not hold up. So you're both right, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BiggieScooby Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Synthetic oil is abundant just tap Rex Ryan's fat arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 (edited) Finished watching a few documentaries on Netflix, notably A Crude Awakening which made a compelling case for peak oil. While its common knowledge that oil is a limited resource, the time frame laid out by those subscribing to peak oil and implications if that theory is correct, are alarming. Theory: -We will see oil production peak in the next 10 years, and subsequently decline until the resource is exhausted, which could happen in as few as 100 years but may last for 200 years if demand and consumption decline. -There is no resource capable of meeting our energy demands once oil production really declines. Wind, nuclear, solar and hydro can't even begin to fill the void. Coal and natural gas, which are also limited in nature, will be used to bridge the gap delaying the inevitable. Unless new technologies can unlock untapped energy reserves, the implications range FROM - the extreme of a sudden energy crash and ensuing chaos, war, disease, famine, starvation, zombies, oprah, your typical post apocalyptic scenario, which brings the population back to pre-industrial revolution levels - TO - our lifestyles are totally unsustainable which leads to greater urbanization, end to cars and personal transit, end to airlines, but a relatively peaceful and smooth transition. How credible is peak oil theory? The most comforting rebuttal I've found is another "oil expert" who essentially said how can we be sure there isn't another great oil find out there. Since Hopefully our expert experts here in PPP, can weigh in on how long our oil supply will last, the credibility of peak oil theory, opposing viewpoints, what substitutes are available, the viability of Hydrogen and other technologies in development, etc. My opinion; I'm going to hold off on stockpiling guns, canned food and seeds but proceed with the whiskey stockpile just to hedge my bets. I think we have yet to realize the full capacity of the middle east and peak oil theory understates our remaining time. I'm not very optimistic about our alternatives to oil, though, but I'm not even a 10th rate DC Tom, according to the latest polls, so what do I know? You might enjoy this piece, an interesting new problem arising from renewables. Also suggests that most electricity needs will be met by renewables. Photovoltaic and solar-thermal plants may meet most of the worlds demand for electricity by 2060 -- and half of all energy needs -- with wind, hydropower and biomass plants supplying much of the remaining generation, the International Energy Agency said in August. Bloomberg Edited November 10, 2011 by TPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Well here's another billion bbls. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/repsol-ypf-confirms-billion-barrels-shale-oil-14900661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 You might enjoy this piece, an interesting new problem arising from renewables. Also suggests that most electricity needs will be met by renewables. Bloomberg Awesome. Guess I won't be building that apocalypse shelter this weekend, after all. But seriously, that is interesting stuff. The documentaries I referenced basically dismissed wind and solar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 (edited) I think he nailed the time frame for peak oil production in the US, but when he applied the same model to global production his hypothesis did not hold up. So you're both right, I believe. IMHO, the problem with the theory was ignoring that oil is a global commodity and the cost & regulation of extraction in the US became too high relative to other locations. Oil, coal & gas still enjoy a significant cost advantage to generate the BTUs than other means that it still makes sense to extract as much as possible while searching for the Holy Grail of renewables. You might enjoy this piece, an interesting new problem arising from renewables. Also suggests that most electricity needs will be met by renewables. Bloomberg Hmm, regulating supply while doing nothing to the demand side. I wonder if I've seen this movie in the energy industry before? Edited November 10, 2011 by GG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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