Mikie2times Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I used to create a lot of the playoff threads and scenarios years ago but it’s been awhile since we had the chance to bring it up. I will update this thread during the season with rankings and scenarios so you can keep track of us ending the playoff drought. One thing is for sure, this will not be an easy path, and if we make it we earned it. With New England and the Jets being AFC East front runners (rightfully so) we will only have 1 wild card spot left. Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be formidable contenders for us to overtake them and earn that spot. Certainly way more scenarios exist, but that is how I see it playing out as of now. Since we play neither our Conference record will be critical. It’s nice to start 2-0 in that regard. I feel 10-6 is what we need to hit, these are the games left and how I see it breaking down. San Diego A – West Coast trips have not fared well for us. The Chargers play better as the season progresses. This will be a very difficult game. New York Jets H/A- We can beat the Jets. Sanchez is capable of implosion; the offense does not impress me. We tend to split the series with them historically. I certainly expect us to be within a TD in at least one if not both of the games in the 4th quarter. We need to finish it off. Dallas A- The Cowboys could be tricky. Great passing teams scare me. It’s more winnable then SD. They have some uncertainty with injuries. They could be streaking by then or could be going in another direction. Giants A- They have potential to play great football or lay an egg. I view this as a must win, especially when you compare this match up to some of the other teams listed. New England H/A- This is probably the best team in the league. We do get them again on the final week. We have potential for them to have locked up HF by then. A split is possible with some favorable bounces. Maybe the gods step in week 3 and ensure it. That would be monumental to our playoff aspirations. Philadelphia H- Another one of the best teams in football. I can see us being competitive in this game but it will be a major challenge. I think we need 3 out of 8 from this group. If you can pick 3 cupcakes scenario’s from this group you see things differently then I do. Again we will have to earn it. The rest….. Cincinnati A Miami H/A Denver H Tennessee H Washington H These are likely not playoff teams, again, that could change, but as it stands it looks like we should be favored in 5 of 6 of these. When you look at the first grouping, we will not be favored in any of them. Winning even 3 from the first group will be a solid achievement for this team. If they do so they need to win 5 of 6 from the remaining games I show to finish 10-6. Long road ahead, but it’s nice to be able to even consider the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It's very simple: New England, San Diego and Houston are locks. The Vegas money is on the Jets, Ravens and Steelers claiming those last 3 spots. You would have to beat out one of those teams. In order to do so, you MUST finish 10-6. Not to early to start rooting against those 3 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picnic Table F'er Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I don't think 10-6 is enough this year. We'll need 11-5 to make the playoffs. Steelers and Ravens both have a very easy second half of the season. Between them playing Seattle/Rams/Colts/Chiefs and of course the Browns/Bengals twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep2evans Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 (edited) It's very simple: New England, San Diego and Houston are locks. The Vegas money is on the Jets, Ravens and Steelers claiming those last 3 spots. You would have to beat out one of those teams. In order to do so, you MUST finish 10-6. Not to early to start rooting against those 3 teams. San Diego??? how on earth are they a lock? counting out the raiders, who swept their division last year, would be a mistake. Edited September 20, 2011 by deep2evans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 It's very simple: New England, San Diego and Houston are locks. The Vegas money is on the Jets, Ravens and Steelers claiming those last 3 spots. You would have to beat out one of those teams. In order to do so, you MUST finish 10-6. Not to early to start rooting against those 3 teams. Locks???? I think not... If the Bills beat the Pats then this division is officially up for grabs. San Diego isn't better than the Raiders. Do you think they are? Houston? The Titans just beat the big bad Ravens so the Texans are no lock. Jets, Ravens and Steelers all have looked a little bit shaky two games in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Locks???? I think not... If the Bills beat the Pats then this division is officially up for grabs. San Diego isn't better than the Raiders. Do you think they are? Houston? The Titans just beat the big bad Ravens so the Texans are no lock. Jets, Ravens and Steelers all have looked a little bit shaky two games in. We'll see what happens, I suppose, but it's a moot point because it IS a lock that no more than one team will come out of the south or the west. So everything else I said still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picnic Table F'er Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 San Diego isn't better than the Raiders. Do you think they are? I think the fact that we beat the Raiders (and an AFC opponent) is going to come in huge when we come to tiebreakers in 15 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 There have been 2 weeks to the NFL season. There are absolutely no locks right now. Anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Why assume the Jets are the #2 in the division? If we split with the Pats/Jets, but the Jets lose both to the Pats... we get that #2 spot Tired of people handing them the #2 AFC East spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
playman Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 yup. these tiebreakers will play pretty big roles this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I don't think 10-6 is enough this year. We'll need 11-5 to make the playoffs. Steelers and Ravens both have a very easy second half of the season. Between them playing Seattle/Rams/Colts/Chiefs and of course the Browns/Bengals twice. Holy crimminy..you are so dead on. Here are the Steelers last 6 games Sunday, Nov. 27* at Kansas City 8:20 p.m. NBC Sunday, Dec. 4* CINCINNATI 1 p.m. CBS Thursday, Dec. 8 CLEVELAND 8:20 p.m. NFL Network/KDKA Monday, Dec. 19 at San Francisco 8:30 p.m. ESPN Saturday, Dec. 24* ST. LOUIS 1 p.m. FOX Sunday, Jan. 1* at Cleveland 1 p.m. CBS Then the Ravens Sun. Nov. 13* at Seattle Seahawks Sun. Nov. 20* CINCINNATI BENGALS Thurs. Nov. 24 SAN FRANCISCO 49ers Sun. Dec. 4* at Cleveland Browns Sun. Dec. 11* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Sun. Dec. 18 at San Diego Chargers Sat. Dec. 24 CLEVELAND BROWNS Sun. Jan. 1* at Cincinnati Bengals Someone will win the next gane between them...they are locks I have to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 I think the fact that we beat the Raiders (and an AFC opponent) is going to come in huge when we come to tiebreakers in 15 weeks. I agree, much more then people give it credit for. Not only do I see them as the only other major wild card contender but it also puts us at 2-0 in the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I'm expecting a .500 record, and again no playoffs. And I'll be happy with it haha. Why assume the Jets are the #2 in the division? If we split with the Pats/Jets, but the Jets lose both to the Pats... we get that #2 spot Tired of people handing them the #2 AFC East spot... They should hand them the #2 spot. Until someone takes it away from them. Gotta play the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Holy crimminy..you are so dead on. Here are the Steelers last 6 games Sunday, Nov. 27* at Kansas City 8:20 p.m. NBC Sunday, Dec. 4* CINCINNATI 1 p.m. CBS Thursday, Dec. 8 CLEVELAND 8:20 p.m. NFL Network/KDKA Monday, Dec. 19 at San Francisco 8:30 p.m. ESPN Saturday, Dec. 24* ST. LOUIS 1 p.m. FOX Sunday, Jan. 1* at Cleveland 1 p.m. CBS Then the Ravens Sun. Nov. 13* at Seattle Seahawks Sun. Nov. 20* CINCINNATI BENGALS Thurs. Nov. 24 SAN FRANCISCO 49ers Sun. Dec. 4* at Cleveland Browns Sun. Dec. 11* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS Sun. Dec. 18 at San Diego Chargers Sat. Dec. 24 CLEVELAND BROWNS Sun. Jan. 1* at Cincinnati Bengals Someone will win the next gane between them...they are locks I have to agree Ugh, vomit. Jesus that is ridiculous. I saw 10-6 as a heck of a challenge. It might have to be 11-5. Still very early, but I feel pretty confident the Wild Card competition boils down to SD/OAK/PIT/BAL/NE/NYJ. 3 of which will win the division. Nice to talk about, but a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The Chargers are not locks but someone from the AFC West is (doesn't matter whether it's the Chargers or Raiders or somebody else). With division winners getting automatic bids, only 4 of these teams can get playoff spots: Bills, Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens (or some yet unknown surprise team) Hopefully one of those other teams has a very disappointing year and the Bills stay healthy and receive some breaks It's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 (edited) youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE I used to create a lot of the playoff threads and scenarios years ago but it’s been awhile since we had the chance to bring it up. I will update this thread during the season with rankings and scenarios so you can keep track of us ending the playoff drought. One thing is for sure, this will not be an easy path, and if we make it we earned it. With New England and the Jets being AFC East front runners (rightfully so) we will only have 1 wild card spot left. Baltimore or Pittsburgh will be formidable contenders for us to overtake them and earn that spot. Certainly way more scenarios exist, but that is how I see it playing out as of now. Since we play neither our Conference record will be critical. It’s nice to start 2-0 in that regard. I feel 10-6 is what we need to hit, these are the games left and how I see it breaking down. San Diego A – West Coast trips have not fared well for us. The Chargers play better as the season progresses. This will be a very difficult game. New York Jets H/A- We can beat the Jets. Sanchez is capable of implosion; the offense does not impress me. We tend to split the series with them historically. I certainly expect us to be within a TD in at least one if not both of the games in the 4th quarter. We need to finish it off. Dallas A- The Cowboys could be tricky. Great passing teams scare me. It’s more winnable then SD. They have some uncertainty with injuries. They could be streaking by then or could be going in another direction. Giants A- They have potential to play great football or lay an egg. I view this as a must win, especially when you compare this match up to some of the other teams listed. New England H/A- This is probably the best team in the league. We do get them again on the final week. We have potential for them to have locked up HF by then. A split is possible with some favorable bounces. Maybe the gods step in week 3 and ensure it. That would be monumental to our playoff aspirations. Philadelphia H- Another one of the best teams in football. I can see us being competitive in this game but it will be a major challenge. I think we need 3 out of 8 from this group. If you can pick 3 cupcakes scenario’s from this group you see things differently then I do. Again we will have to earn it. The rest….. Cincinnati A Miami H/A Denver H Tennessee H Washington H These are likely not playoff teams, again, that could change, but as it stands it looks like we should be favored in 5 of 6 of these. When you look at the first grouping, we will not be favored in any of them. Winning even 3 from the first group will be a solid achievement for this team. If they do so they need to win 5 of 6 from the remaining games I show to finish 10-6. Long road ahead, but it’s nice to be able to even consider the possibility. We won some games I did not expect us to win. Some teams are falling off as others creep into the picture. Here is the latest update based on what we know. As you can tell from my previous post prior to the NE game a lot can change in a couple weeks. Obviously a massive game looms ahead. Prior I was focusing solely on wild card, but is it that absurd to think we can win the East? We sit pretty in tiebreakers and it's no more absurd then the fact that we can realistically talk about this after half the season. So the East is in the picture, assuming we don't win the East and New England does, then we have the WC. So lets see how that is shaping up. East Jets- @BUF, NE, @DEN, BUF, @WASH, KC, @PHI, NYG, @MIA Pretty sure we will know if the Jets are in this race in four weeks, maybe even two. The game coming up is critical but you also have to remember they follow us with the Patriots and play us again in 2 weeks. It is not must win, not at least for us. Similar to the Bengals game, a win puts us in great position. Assuming we split, then it comes down to the division tie breakers. Us going 2-1 vs Miami twice/New England the last week vs NYJ 1-1 vs NE/Miami once each will give us the edge in that situation. North PIT- BAL, @CIN, @KC, CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE (4-2 AFC) I expect Pittsburgh will win the Division and help mop up some of our WC competition in the process. CIN- @TEN, PIT, @BAL, CLE, @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARZ, BAL (4-1 AFC) + H2H tiebreaker This Bengals team is much better then people give them credit for. That said I don't see them going 5-4 with this schedule, and they better not, because the Bengals are the only team who has us by the short hairs in tiebreakers. BAL- @PIT, @SEA, CIN, SF, @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN(3-2 AFC) A very cake like schedule a month ago looks a little more difficult. The nice thing about the North is all these teams still play each other a lot, which is a bit of a catch 22. Two of PIT's contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati still play each other twice. We wan't teams to stay under 10-6, but if either BALT or CIN establishes themselves it's unlikely both will stay under that threshold. That said the fact that they all play each other so much almost guarantees both BALT and CIN will not go 10-6 with PIT winning the division. The rest...... Tennessee- We still play them and they seem like a fringe playoff contender. Oakland- Devalued heavily, Carson is not ready. In my opinion the WC spots will come from the East and North. Unlikely with scheduling that either division will take both. So we have two ways, beat out the Jets or beat out both Baltimore and the Bengals. When I started this thread I did so like usual, good fun. But it's starting to look like we appear on the likely side of the playoff picture. Now we need to take care of business against the Jets. A win this week and our chances increase exponentially. It's an odd game, we certainly have something to lose, but more from what we would fail to gain in defeat, then what we actually lose. We beat the Jets this Sunday, we can make the playoffs playing average football the rest of the year and pretty much write our ticket. We lose this week and we will still control things but our position is much weaker. Edited October 31, 2011 by KzooMike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I won't but I'll let ESPN do it for me. #2 seed (as of today) http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings?type=playoffs&sort=conferenceRank&order=false NE a wild card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deep2evans Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 We won some games I did not expect us to win. Some teams are falling off as others creep into the picture. Here is the latest update based on what we know. As you can tell from my previous post prior to the NE game a lot can change in a couple weeks. Obviously a massive game looms ahead. Prior I was focusing solely on wild card, but is it that absurd to think we can win the East? We sit pretty in tiebreakers and it's no more absurd then the fact that we can realistically talk about this after half the season. So the East is in the picture, assuming we don't win the East and New England does, then we have the WC. So lets see how that is shaping up. East Jets- @BUF, NE, @DEN, BUF, @WASH, KC, @PHI, NYG, @MIA Pretty sure we will know if the Jets are in this race in four weeks, maybe even two. The game coming up is critical but you also have to remember they follow us with the Patriots and play us again in 2 weeks. It is not must win, not at least for us. Similar to the Bengals game, a win puts us in great position. Assuming we split, then it comes down to the division tie breakers. Us going 2-1 vs Miami twice/New England the last week vs NYJ 1-1 vs NE/Miami once each will give us the edge in that situation. North PIT- BAL, @CIN, @KC, CIN, CLE, @SF, STL, @CLE (4-2 AFC) I expect Pittsburgh will win the Division and help mop up some of our WC competition in the process. CIN- @TEN, PIT, @BAL, CLE, @PIT, HOU, @STL, ARZ, BAL (4-1 AFC) + H2H tiebreaker This Bengals team is much better then people give them credit for. That said I don't see them going 5-4 with this schedule, and they better not, because the Bengals are the only team who has us by the short hairs in tiebreakers. BAL- @PIT, @SEA, CIN, SF, @CLE, IND, @SD, CLE, @CIN(3-2 AFC) A very cake like schedule a month ago looks a little more difficult. The nice thing about the North is all these teams still play each other a lot, which is a bit of a catch 22. Two of PIT's contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati still play each other twice. We wan't teams to stay under 10-6, but if either BALT or CIN establishes themselves it's unlikely both will stay under that threshold. That said the fact that they all play each other so much almost guarantees both BALT and CIN will not go 10-6 with PIT winning the division. The rest...... Tennessee- We still play them and they seem like a fringe playoff contender. Oakland- Devalued heavily, Carson is not ready. In my opinion the WC spots will come from the East and North. Unlikely with scheduling that either division will take both. So we have two ways, beat out the Jets or beat out both Baltimore and the Bengals. When I started this thread I did so like usual, good fun. But it's starting to look like we appear on the likely side of the playoff picture. Now we need to take care of business against the Jets. A win this week and our chances increase exponentially. It's an odd game, we certainly have something to lose, but more from what we would fail to gain in defeat, then what we actually lose. We beat the Jets this Sunday, we can make the playoffs playing average football the rest of the year and pretty much write our ticket. We lose this week and we will still control things but our position is much weaker. excellent post. i've been thinking along the same lines, and with the AFC North playing each other so often, it's tough to decipher if it'll take 10 or 11 wins to get in. Next week's game is !@#$ing enormous. IMO (no statistical basis), if we win next week, I'd put our playoffs chances at 85%, a loss drops us to around 30%. If we lose at home to the Jets, in my mind I have a hard time picturing us beating them in their barn - and if they beat us twice, I can't see them finishing worse than 11-5, which effectively !@#$s us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 There is a scenario that guarantees the Bills a playoff spot: win the division. Out of the question? Tough order but not impossible. Right now I think Buffalo's chances of winning the AFCE are as good as anyone's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SageAgainstTheMachine Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 excellent post. i've been thinking along the same lines, and with the AFC North playing each other so often, it's tough to decipher if it'll take 10 or 11 wins to get in. Next week's game is !@#$ing enormous. IMO (no statistical basis), if we win next week, I'd put our playoffs chances at 85%, a loss drops us to around 30%. If we lose at home to the Jets, in my mind I have a hard time picturing us beating them in their barn - and if they beat us twice, I can't see them finishing worse than 11-5, which effectively !@#$s us. I agree with your premise that getting swept by the Jets effectively !@#$s us. I disagree with your premise that losing next week's matchup lowers our chances of beating them Week 12 in New Jersey. The Bills are good enough to beat the Jets on the road regardless of Week 9's results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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