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Will Wolford ring any bells? The Colts used a #1 pick this year on the O line, as did the Packers, the Bears, the Cowboys, the Dolphins, The Eagles, The Patriots, The Seahawks.

 

 

 

I suppose there wasn't any decent O linemen in the first 3 rounds that Buffalo wanted the last two drafts....

 

That's an incredible over simplification. I'm not contesting the importance of the offensive line to a football team. If you listen to interviews Polian has conducted and some of the hints Nix has dropped, they clearly believe, and Polian has demonstrated several times, that good lineman can be had in the middle draft rounds. This frees up picks at the top of the draft for skill positions.

 

The discrepancy between the top rated QB in the draft and the fifth rated is much greater than between the best OL and 5th best, on average. The same relationship holds true with many other "money" positions and OL. DBs, even though we are all pained by Levy/Jauron era, are a money position, and you take them in the top 2 rounds. There's exceptions to all rules, but top cover DBs need the raw athleticism to cover top WRs which they either have or they don't. OL is just as much craft, and learning and preparation as it is tremendous athleticism. DL is another money position. DL have the strength and speed to get to the QB or they don't. There aren't as many total surprises out of college that turn in to sack machines at the next level. Since there are 5 spots on the line, and many players are suitable for more than just one, it means they can also be more easily acquired in free agency than other positions.

 

This post is filled with sweeping generalizations and can be picked apart by bringing up a player here and a player there, but nonetheless, it does roughly outline an overall team building strategy that Polian and other GMs subscribe to. Its not about filling needs for one year, but maximizing draft picks to sustain a competitive team year after year. Team building, in my opinion, is the most interesting aspect of professional football.

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That's an incredible over simplification. I'm not contesting the importance of the offensive line to a football team. If you listen to interviews Polian has conducted and some of the hints Nix has dropped, they clearly believe, and Polian has demonstrated several times, that good lineman can be had in the middle draft rounds. This frees up picks at the top of the draft for skill positions.

 

The discrepancy between the top rated QB in the draft and the fifth rated is much greater than between the best OL and 5th best, on average. The same relationship holds true with many other "money" positions and OL. DBs, even though we are all pained by Levy/Jauron era, are a money position, and you take them in the top 2 rounds. There's exceptions to all rules, but top cover DBs need the raw athleticism to cover top WRs which they either have or they don't. OL is just as much craft, and learning and preparation as it is tremendous athleticism. DL is another money position. DL have the strength and speed to get to the QB or they don't. There aren't as many total surprises out of college that turn in to sack machines at the next level. Since there are 5 spots on the line, and many players are suitable for more than just one, it means they can also be more easily acquired in free agency than other positions.

 

This post is filled with sweeping generalizations and can be picked apart by bringing up a player here and a player there, but nonetheless, it does roughly outline an overall team building strategy that Polian and other GMs subscribe to. Its not about filling needs for one year, but maximizing draft picks to sustain a competitive team year after year. Team building, in my opinion, is the most interesting aspect of professional football.

You've expressed yourself well. I agree that if you can get away with building a very good OL without using high picks, it's well worth doing. As you've pointed out, there have been a number of times when teams have done that successfully.

 

But there are a number of potential flaws with confining oneself to a mid- to late-round OL strategy. The Bills have been a case study in such flaws.

 

1) I would argue that a number of positions the Bills have addressed instead of the OL have not been "money positions," as you describe them. I'll grant that your #1 CB is a money position. But the same is not (typically) true of your safeties, and is only partially true of your #2 CB. I'd also argue that a RB is not a money position, unless you're getting a Thurman Thomas or a Marshall Faulk.

 

2) OL positions only seem like non-money positions when your mid- and late-round OL get the job done. But ever since the mid- '90s, the Bills' OL has generally been a shambles. Several years ago, Dr. Z wrote an article about how several teams' failure at OL had led to a total team lack of success. A lack of pass protection will generally kill your passing game, while the lack of run blocking shuts down your running game. That kills your offense, which puts your defense on the field more than it should be, thus wearing it down as well. The Bills were one of several teams Dr. Z listed as having experienced exactly this kind of OL-based weakness and collapse.

 

3) The early draft picks the Bills have freed up by neglecting the OL have typically been squandered. For example, I like Antoine Winfield as a player, and think he would have more than justified the late first round pick the Bills used on him. But that justification would have required he spend his career in Buffalo, instead of spending most of it with the Vikings. As things stand, the pick on him was largely wasted, just as any first round pick should be considered mostly wasted if used on a player who goes first-contract-and-out. The Bills have experienced a number of first-contract-and-out DBs over the years.

 

4) The first round picks used on this constant, useless quest to upgrade the RB position have also been wasted. Travis Henry didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to justify the second round pick. Willis McGahee didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Travis Henry to justify the first round pick. And so on. If the Bills had used more early picks on offensive linemen over the years, they would have been forced to make do with what they had at RB and DB. That would have meant re-signing Greer, avoiding selections like McGahee and Lynch, etc. Instead, the Bills acted like draft day rich men who could afford to throw away anything not quite perfect when they were drafting RBs and DBs. And they've acted like draft day paupers when it comes time to draft OL.

 

5) It is not necessarily the case that it's easier to build an OL with free agents than it is to improve yourself at some other position. The availability of free agent OL is, presumably, five times greater than that for other positions. But the need for free agent OL is five times greater as well. Those two things cancel. For every good free agent OL, there will probably be five or six teams looking to upgrade their offensive lines. Nearly every team in the league has at least one hole on its offensive line, thereby increasing the demand for top tier free agent OL. I literally can't remember the last time the Bills added an offensive lineman in free agency and had him turn into a long-term solid starter. (I'm not talking about UDFAs here--those are a separate category--but rather guys who'd played significantly for other teams before coming to Buffalo.)

 

6) It's worth noting that when Polian's Colts lost the Super Bowl to the Saints, he attributed that failure to his team's OL. He announced his intention to devote significant draft day resources to shoring up the OL; an intention which was later implemented by his son Chris. I'd also argue that the OL has been an ongoing issue for the Colts. The Colts have won plenty of regular season games over the course of Manning's career. But come the postseason, the Colts would be faced with teams with better defenses--and specifically with better pass rushes. A Colts OL which was good enough to cope with normal defenses has often proved unequal to dealing with the best pass rushes of the league. As a consequence, the Colts offense would often perform significantly worse in the postseason than it had during the regular season. The moral of the story is that a strategy of building the OL with mid- to late-round picks doesn't always work, even when it's being executed by someone as capable as Polian.

 

I like the idea of getting by with late round picks and UDFAs where possible. Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson, and Jabari Greer are all good examples of this. When you find a player like that, you should keep him locked up for the entirety of his career. You should attempt to fill nearly every position with mid- to-late round picks if you can find players of Johnson/Jackson/Greer caliber. The one exception is at quarterback, where having an elite player is much more important than any savings you may incur on draft picks. For every other position on the team--not just OL--you should adopt a "fill with a later round pick if possible" strategy. There will be times when that strategy fails--times when those mid- to late-round picks do not yield a good RT, or OLB, or RDE, or whatever. Whenever something like that happens, you shouldn't be afraid to use an early pick on a good- to -elite player to fix the problem. Especially if the position is of critical importance, such as OT! :angry:

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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The discrepancy between the top rated QB in the draft and the fifth rated is much greater than between the best OL and 5th best, on average. The same relationship holds true with many other "money" positions and OL.

 

What on earth would make you say something like this? Just ask any QB just how important the LT position is and see what they say. You can't get a top LT in free agency or a trade (unless you are dealing with the Bills). In almost every draft, LTs shoot up the board. It is WAY more difficult to find a strong, fast, agile, smart 330 pound man than it is to find someone who can cover a receiver.

 

This post is filled with sweeping generalizations and can be picked apart by bringing up a player here and a player there, but nonetheless, it does roughly outline an overall team building strategy that Polian and other GMs subscribe to.

 

The year before Manning came to Indy, Glenn and Meadows were drafted in rounds 1 and 2. And as E.A. said, Polian made recent statements about how he should have put more into his OL.

 

Also, just why do you think the Bills are losing? Seriously, they certainly are drafting enough defensive backs to your liking, no? They have been losing because they have been weak up front on both sides. QB is also an issue, but only Fitz had a chance behind this mess because he is so elusive. A modern day Flutie in a sense.

 

It's great that they shored up the DL. I am very happy with this. But, until they fix the OL they will not be a playoff level team. History has proven this, wouldn't you say?

Edited by Bill from NYC
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Just got through watching "The Brady Six' & one of the things that Brady & others said through out the documentary is they needed the right QB for the team .

 

No matter how good the guy is if there isn't a chemistry with the guys your with it could be just enough off to not work .

 

I am a musician & if you look at groups that were great & then a couple of people left & it just was never that good again , Molly Hatchet is one that comes to mind there first 2 albums the chemistry was great , a couple of guys leave never the same again , Aerosmith Joe Perry left Wasn't the same comes back the chemistry comes back .

 

The Pats are like the Doobie Bros. no matter who you plug in it just works , for some reason the chemistry never leaves .

 

Fitz has a chemistry with the guys & they believe in each other & with out that chemistry no matter how good you might have been it could look like you don't have a clue !!

 

Fitz is the right QB for this team !!!!

 

Great analogy and one all the 'sign Vince Young' idiots will never comprehend. Fitz is the best option for 2011.

 

 

 

This line is truly inspired:

The Pats are like the Doobie Bros. no matter who you plug in it just works , for some reason the chemistry never leaves .

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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What on earth would make you say something like this? Just ask any QB just how important the LT position is and see what they say. You can't get a top LT in free agency or a trade (unless you are dealing with the Bills). In almost every draft, LTs shoot up the board. It is WAY more difficult to find a strong, fast, agile, smart 330 pound man than it is to find someone who can cover a receiver.

 

 

 

The year before Manning came to Indy, Glenn and Meadows were drafted in rounds 1 and 2. And as E.A. said, Polian made recent statements about how he should have put more into his OL.

 

Also, just why do you think the Bills are losing? Seriously, they certainly are drafting enough defensive backs to your liking, no? They have been losing because they have been weak up front on both sides. QB is also an issue, but only Fitz had a chance behind this mess because he is so illusive. A modern day Flutie in a sense.

 

It's great that they shored up the DL. I am very happy with this. But, until they fix the OL they will not be a playoff level team. History has proven this, wouldn't you say?

 

 

Fantastic job of missing the point and twisting my words Bill. In no way did I claim that the offensive line or left tackle position is not important. I simply tried to explain a team building strategy, that has been successfully employed by NFL GMs, that you do not need to spend 1st round draft picks to build a line. In other words, I described a strategy of how to maximize the value of limited resources. If you disagree, take this up with Nix and Polian.

 

How in the world do I say something like that? Taking a look at the 2008 draft, yes the performance difference between Matt Ryan and Kevin O'Connell is greater than that from Jake Long to Otah or John Greco.

 

My personal opinion is that the Bills have drafted too many DBs in the last few years due to poor management. They let good DBs walk after their first contract and picks like McKelvin and Ko have not panned out. The Bills continually place themselves in a position where they need to draft DBs every year.

 

I would not take a RB in round one or maybe even round two. Their careers are too short, and the marginal value of the RB has diminished over the last few years since teams will probably need 2 RBs or more to last a season. The feature back has all but disappeared and NFL rosters are show many examples of mid to late round picks tearing it up, and even a few undrafted guys.

 

Safety is another position that I wouldn't touch in the first round. They're built like corners and play like linebackers. Often they have short, injury riddled careers.

 

There's my 2 cents. How do you propose to build a team Bill, aside from using your top 2 draft picks on OL every year?

Edited by Jauronimo
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How do you propose to build a team Bill, aside from using your top 2 draft picks on OL every year?

 

It is simple. Build a team that is strong. I would make sure to have a top QB, LT and a pass rush in place. I would build a team that can run the football successfully and stop the run.

 

Then, I would worry about the secondary and running backs.

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It is simple. Build a team that is strong. I would make sure to have a top QB, LT and a pass rush in place. I would build a team that can run the football successfully and stop the run.

 

Then, I would worry about the secondary and running backs.

 

Wow, it makes perfect sense now. You just have to get a pro bowl QB, a strong offensive line with a premier LT, a run stuffing D-Line, pass rushing DEs or LBs, and a good running back to run the ball, and worry about RBs and DBs later. Want to climb Everest tomorrow? All you have to do is put one foot in front of the other until you're standing on the top.

 

All sarcasm aside, I agree with the "run the ball and stop the run" mentality. I also agree that a strong front 7 can better mask a poor secondary than a great secondary can make up for a shaky line. You described the components of a good team, but did not explain a team building or draft strategy to address all 22 positions. You can't fill every position with first and second round picks.

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Wow, it makes perfect sense now. You just have to get a pro bowl QB, a strong offensive line with a premier LT, a run stuffing D-Line, pass rushing DEs or LBs, and a good running back to run the ball, and worry about RBs and DBs later. Want to climb Everest tomorrow? All you have to do is put one foot in front of the other until you're standing on the top.

 

All sarcasm aside, I agree with the "run the ball and stop the run" mentality. I also agree that a strong front 7 can better mask a poor secondary than a great secondary can make up for a shaky line. You described the components of a good team, but did not explain a team building or draft strategy to address all 22 positions. You can't fill every position with first and second round picks.

 

 

No, but it sure helps if you don't whiff on those picks year after year by taking mediocre DBs like Whitner and McKelvin or gimmick players like Spiller and Parish or reach for busts like McCargo and Losman.

Edited by KD in CT
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Wow, it makes perfect sense now. You just have to get a pro bowl QB, a strong offensive line with a premier LT, a run stuffing D-Line, pass rushing DEs or LBs, and a good running back to run the ball, and worry about RBs and DBs later. Want to climb Everest tomorrow? All you have to do is put one foot in front of the other until you're standing on the top.

 

All sarcasm aside, I agree with the "run the ball and stop the run" mentality. I also agree that a strong front 7 can better mask a poor secondary than a great secondary can make up for a shaky line. You described the components of a good team, but did not explain a team building or draft strategy to address all 22 positions. You can't fill every position with first and second round picks.

I know I'm not Bill from NYC, but I feel the urge to take the step described in the bolded section. Suppose I was made GM of an expansion team, and had five years' worth of drafts to build it into a contender. Here's how I'd use those five years worth of picks.

 

Round 1 picks

QB

LT

RDE (3-4)

OLB (3-4/pass rusher)

CB

 

Round 2 picks

RT

C

WR

NT

CB

 

Round 3 picks

WR

TE

RB: pass receiver, blitz pickup, draw plays, standard-issue running plays

LDE (3-4)

OLB

 

Rounds 4 - 7/UDFAs

OG

OG

#3 WR

ILB

ILB

SS

FS

 

The above plan isn't set in stone. Every GM should be able to respond flexibly to the players actually available in the draft, rather than coming in with a rigid plan based on what he wishes was available, or feels should be available.

 

On offense, my objective would be to have an elite QB playing behind a solid OL. That's why I'm planning to use a first round pick on a QB, another on a LT, and second rounders on my RT and C. (But if a Nick Mangold was available to me later in the first, I'd gladly take him.) The QB also needs targets, which is why I have the team drafting its #1 WR in the second round, and another WR and a TE in the third. The third round RB is envisioned to be a poor man's Thurman Thomas: a guy who can run the ball, catch passes, do well on draw plays, and be solid at blitz pickup.

 

I'd employ a 3-4 defense. The four most important positions there would be NT, RDE, pass rushing OLB, and #1 CB. The NT should be able to be productive while being double-teamed: a Pat Williams or Ted Washington. The RDE should also provide a pass rush + run stopping while being double teamed--perhaps a somewhat inferior version of Bruce Smith. The OLB should be like Bryce Paup: an excellent pass rusher who's also solid at stopping the run and at pass coverage. The #1 CB should be like Antoine Winfield: a guy you can leave on an island against the other team's #1 WR. The only difference is that unlike Winfield, my #1 CB would not go first-contract-and-out!! :angry::angry: Of those four key defenders, I'd take all but the NT in the first round. The theory here is that it's easier to find a good NT in the second round than it is to find a good RDE, pass rushing OLB, or CB.

 

As I indicated in my earlier post, I'd also try to find late round/UDFA steals at just about every position on the field. If (for example) I managed to find a Steve Johnson of a 7th round pick, that would free up an early pick I'd planned to use on a WR.

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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If the offensive line is that bad, and the coaches and front office have not addressed it, then why isn't everyone up in arms about getting rid of Nix and Gailey and everyone else right now then/ Fact is Fitz sucks regardless of who is blocking for him.

 

If people keep banging on the offensive line sucking, and the Bills did nothing to change the offensive line, and people use the offensive line as an excuse to why Fitz played so bad, then why in the world would anything change? Fitz is still turnover machine and inaccurate and 4 win Fitz and the offensive line is still the same, will everyone still be making excuses for Fitz's horrible QB play again after this season too? How in the world can Fitz get any better when people are just apologizing for his crap play?

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If the offensive line is that bad, and the coaches and front office have not addressed it, then why isn't everyone up in arms about getting rid of Nix and Gailey and everyone else right now then/ Fact is Fitz sucks regardless of who is blocking for him.

 

If people keep banging on the offensive line sucking, and the Bills did nothing to change the offensive line, and people use the offensive line as an excuse to why Fitz played so bad, then why in the world would anything change? Fitz is still turnover machine and inaccurate and 4 win Fitz and the offensive line is still the same, will everyone still be making excuses for Fitz's horrible QB play again after this season too? How in the world can Fitz get any better when people are just apologizing for his crap play?

Yawn.

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No, but it sure helps if you don't whiff on those picks year after year by taking mediocre DBs like Whitner and McKelvin or gimmick players like Spiller and Parish or reach for busts like McCargo and Losman.

 

Missing on high round draft picks is a killer no matter what prevailing theory, strategy or system. I think we can all agree the Bills have gotten minimal return from the first and second rounds over the last few years, which is why . Taking DBs or RBs instead of DL, OL or even QB wouldn't sting nearly as much if the DBs and RBs the Bills selected actually produced.

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The common denominator to all these blue collar and solid OL groups is that proven front offices put them together. They found capable and occasionally top talent late in the draft or via the UDFA route. Beyond Levitre and perhaps Hangartner who might be considered above average caliber on that roster? Furthermore, today's NFL doesn't keep rosters together long, so it's incumbent on the coaches and players to learn fast and play well. We're not going to see 4-5 OL together for 6-8 seasons anymore.

 

And lost in the passing dominated nature of the NFL is the need to protect the edges with good OT's. I don't see Bell ever becoming a good enough OT, and the RT position is a black hole of fringe NFL players. One would hope Hairston could evolve into a good OT, but I don't put a lot of stock into 4th round rookies becoming average starters right away. Moreover, if Erik Pears was so good, then how has he bounced to 4 teams in 3 seasons? And Mansfield Wrotto? He was arguably their worst OT, but then I remember how bad Cordaro Howard and Cornell Green were. This is a position with no depth and marginal talent above that.

 

I for one don't believe it takes 3-4 years to rebuild. Buddy Nix has obviously told RW that's how long it takes, but I beg to differ. Plenty of teams have completed the job in less time and showed real progress on the way there. If Buffalo doesn't win 8 games this season, it's going to call into question the Nix rebuild some have prematurely fallen in love with.

 

Well I beg to differ

 

D. Bell has become a better player each and every year he has been on this team......and this is despite the fact that he suffered an injury and couldn't put in a NFL off season strength program AND was not able to practice quite a bit in the season as well.....he even had to split snaps early on in the year because he body was not ready to sustain a full game. Despite that.....pass protection was better....penalties were down......lets also keep in mind that just like our dearly departed TE turned LT Peters Bell has not played a lot of football in his career.......yet he continues to improve.

 

We are set across the interior or our OL....the only spot that is a question mark is RT....and it is a huge one. The RT from the raiders was a complete mistake and you have to put that on Nix......but you also have to give credit where it is do that he recognized his mistakes early at a couple of differnet spots and acted decisively. Hairston to me looks like a player but we will see....and we have not even had a free agency yet.

 

If the offensive line is that bad, and the coaches and front office have not addressed it, then why isn't everyone up in arms about getting rid of Nix and Gailey and everyone else right now then/ Fact is Fitz sucks regardless of who is blocking for him.

 

If people keep banging on the offensive line sucking, and the Bills did nothing to change the offensive line, and people use the offensive line as an excuse to why Fitz played so bad, then why in the world would anything change? Fitz is still turnover machine and inaccurate and 4 win Fitz and the offensive line is still the same, will everyone still be making excuses for Fitz's horrible QB play again after this season too? How in the world can Fitz get any better when people are just apologizing for his crap play?

 

 

Did you even watch the game where Fitz when out and Brohm went in at the end of the year?

 

The problem is not Fitz....if anything he is masking weaknesses of others.

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Well I beg to differ

 

D. Bell has become a better player each and every year he has been on this team......and this is despite the fact that he suffered an injury and couldn't put in a NFL off season strength program AND was not able to practice quite a bit in the season as well.....he even had to split snaps early on in the year because he body was not ready to sustain a full game. Despite that.....pass protection was better....penalties were down......lets also keep in mind that just like our dearly departed TE turned LT Peters Bell has not played a lot of football in his career.......yet he continues to improve.

 

We are set across the interior or our OL....the only spot that is a question mark is RT....and it is a huge one. The RT from the raiders was a complete mistake and you have to put that on Nix......but you also have to give credit where it is do that he recognized his mistakes early at a couple of differnet spots and acted decisively. Hairston to me looks like a player but we will see....and we have not even had a free agency yet.

 

 

 

 

Did you even watch the game where Fitz when out and Brohm went in at the end of the year?

 

The problem is not Fitz....if anything he is masking weaknesses of others.

 

I did see when Brohm went in. He closely resemble Fitz from the week before against New England. Brohm was 10/23 with 3 INTs and 1 fumble and a 17 rating and Bills scored 7 points, the week before Fitz was 18/37 with 3 INTs and 2 fumbles and a 37 rating and Bills scored 3 points.

 

When Fitz played the Jets he was 12/27 and Bills lost 38-14, without Fitz the Bills lost the Jets 38-7. I fail to see how Fitz makes this team any better at all, he flat out sucks and brings nothing extra to the table. It is pretty evident TO THOSE WHO WATCH THE GAMES, LOOK AT THE SCORES, LOOK AT THE STATS, AND COMPARE HIM TO OTHER QBS, THAT FITZ IS TERRIBLE.

Edited by paintmyhouse
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All I can say is -- wow. We are fortunate to have so many talented GMs-in-the-making posting in this forum. I can only imagine their phones ringing off the hook with organizations looking to upgrade their front offices. I mean, between Bill from NYC and Edwards' Arm, a perfect blueprint has been laid out for building a dynasty.

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All I can say is -- wow. We are fortunate to have so many talented GMs-in-the-making posting in this forum. I can only imagine their phones ringing off the hook with organizations looking to upgrade their front offices. I mean, between Bill from NYC and Edwards' Arm, a perfect blueprint has been laid out for building a dynasty.

Perhaps someday you'll also be able to imagine what it would be like to make a constructive contribution to a discussion, instead of sarcastic remarks denigrating the posts of others.

 

The previous remark isn't about you as a poster in general. It is, however, a statement that the quoted post was out of line, added nothing, and detracted from what had been an intelligent and thought-provoking discussion between Jauronimo, Bill, and myself. If you don't have something useful or beneficial to contribute to a thread, please have the courtesy to remain silent.

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Perhaps someday you'll also be able to imagine what it would be like to make a constructive contribution to a discussion, instead of sarcastic remarks denigrating the posts of others.

 

The previous remark isn't about you as a poster in general. It is, however, a statement that the quoted post was out of line, added nothing, and detracted from what had been an intelligent and thought-provoking discussion between Jauronimo, Bill, and myself. If you don't have something useful or beneficial to contribute to a thread, please have the courtesy to remain silent.

Oh, please. Your condescending and patronizing tone throughout this thread (and most others) is nauseating. I'm glad you love yourself that much; it doesn't mean I have to.

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Wow. Bills fand can even create a QB controversy when there's only 1 QB.

 

The only controversy is how much pot people are smoking who actually think Fitz is good and that he had a good season last year. He was below average and the Bills won 4 games.

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Oh, please. Your condescending and patronizing tone throughout this thread (and most others) is nauseating. I'm glad you love yourself that much; it doesn't mean I have to.

 

No, but you could perhaps spare us the insults, ya know? And you could perhaps come to grips with the fact that when a team is bad for more than a decade, fans are going to cite obviously dumb moves made by the organization.

Not everyone is a blind sheep.

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