Probability of a Bills Trade Down Is Real

[ajzepp]

I can't believe you guys are still talking about Andrew Luck...put the Luck down for cripes sake! He didn't declare this season...we're not going to be the worst team in the NFL next season...he's not coming here...ENOUGH ALREADY

[Lurker]

I'd be happy to read it!

I miss Lori...

[KOKBILLS]

Luck has stated he stayed to get his degree and he will graduate academically next year-That's why everyone thinks he will eschew his last year of eligibility-he's practically declared for next year's draft. Also, there (hopefully) won't be a labor dispute to cloud his rookie season next year.

 

True...Luck is absolutely coming out next year...

 

Still (and this is not in response to you Albany) I don't think he should even be a thought for The Bills or any other NFL Team at this time...It would simply be dumb to make plans that circle around getting in position to Draft Andrew Luck...Especially when there are plenty of Prospect QB's to bring along from this Draft...And The Bills do pick high this year...Who knows where they'll pick in 2011?...

[thebandit27]

Boy.... tough crowd! I used Cincy as an example because if Cam's gone and Gabbert's their guy, they had better think long and hard about moving up one spot or a team below the Bengals is gonna leapfrog them to wheel and deal with the Bills. If Buffalo does decide to trade the pick and move down, there's absolutely, positively gonna be one team that's gets Gabbert at 3 and if it's not the Bengals, it'll be one of the teams I listed. You can bet your bottom dollar on that! Also... if you're so certain that a team has never moved up one spot in the first round, I'd like to know who your source was for that, because Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have made a living out of this type of thinking for years.

 

It doesn't take a "journalist" to come up with ideas such as this, just a GM with the guts and foresight to pull the trigger before another team does. Trust me, there's been plenty of teams that have been outsmarted by geniuses like Belichick and most of them pick in the top 10, year in and year out, as a result of it!

 

Well, for starters, what I said was that no team in the NFL is going to give up next year's #1 pick to move up one spot. In fact, if you look back through the years, teams have indeed moved up ones pot. New England did it to draft Ty Warren and gave up a 4th round pick. Cleveland did it to draft Kellen Winslow (and gave up a 3rd round pick). Baltimore did it to draft Haloti Ngata (and gave up a 4th round pick). So as I said, no team would be willing to give up a future #1 pick.

 

Secondly, Belichick may have acquired a lot of picks from trading down, but that came well after they won their first superbowl. They built their team by using their top 10 picks on Richard Seymour et al and finding talent in the late rounds, not by trading down.

 

In fact, they haven't won a superbowl since they starting trading down in perpetuity.

[Packerland Bills Fan]

Maybe (and it's an enormous stretch) Cincy trades their #1 next year and we send them our #2, then next year (another huge stretch) the pick either turns out to be #1 overall or adding our own we trade for Luck. Dream the impossible dream.

 

Of course before the 1987 draft, the last time the Bills held the #3 pick going in, I dreamed they would somehow be able to get both Shane Conlan and Cornelius Bennett.

 

Like that could actually happen....

[Orton's Arm]

True...Luck is absolutely coming out next year...

 

Still (and this is not in response to you Albany) I don't think he should even be a thought for The Bills or any other NFL Team at this time...It would simply be dumb to make plans that circle around getting in position to Draft Andrew Luck...Especially when there are plenty of Prospect QB's to bring along from this Draft...And The Bills do pick high this year...Who knows where they'll pick in 2011?...

I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to say the OP's plans "circle around" getting Andrew Luck. Everything he's suggested could be justified even if Luck wasn't available in next year's draft. Look at the following sequence of decisions and underlying thought processes.

 

1) Decision: don't use the third overall pick on a QB in this draft. Thought process: there is not necessarily a QB worthy of the third overall pick. There's a lot to like about Gabbert, but he may lack the touch and accuracy you'd want from your franchise guy. Newton is, well, Newton.

 

2) Decision: trade down from third overall to acquire an additional pick in the first round of the 2012 draft. Thought process: there's a chance Von Miller may still be available even at the Bills' new, lower pick. If not, they'll probably be able to acquire some other really good football player. Even if there is a step down in the quality of player they'll be getting, it will be more than offset by the extra first round pick next draft.

 

3) Decision: offer both first round picks in the 2012 draft (plus a few other things) to the team with the #1 overall pick. Thought process: if the Bills are Lucky (pun intended) the team with the first overall pick will already have its QB of the future on the roster, and will be looking to trade down. With two picks relatively early in the first round, the Bills would be the perfect trading partner for that other team! If the Bills are un-Lucky, the team with the first overall pick won't have a QB, and won't be willing to part with the Luck pick at any price. But even if that happens, they could still use their two first rounders in 2012 on other good players. Possibly including a QB.

 

By the time the first three picks of the 2011 draft are made, the Bills will know whether they've succeeded in achieving steps 1 and 2 of this plan. Even if they do, step 3 would still be a likely point of failure. To prepare against the possibility that Luck might not be available to the Bills in 2012, I'd have no objection at all to the Bills using their second round pick on a QB like Christian Ponder. (Though it's unlikely he'll still be available in the second round.) If the Bills succeed in grabbing Ponder + Luck, Ponder could remain in a backup role for several years. Ultimately he'd probably be traded away, much like the Falcons traded away career backup Matt Schaub. (And got good draft compensation for doing so!)

[Scrappy]

If the draft is declared illegal, then what good are next years draft picks?

[dcjoev]

I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to say the OP's plans "circle around" getting Andrew Luck. Everything he's suggested could be justified even if Luck wasn't available in next year's draft. Look at the following sequence of decisions and underlying thought processes.

 

1) Decision: don't use the third overall pick on a QB in this draft. Thought process: there is not necessarily a QB worthy of the third overall pick. There's a lot to like about Gabbert, but he may lack the touch and accuracy you'd want from your franchise guy. Newton is, well, Newton.

 

2) Decision: trade down from third overall to acquire an additional pick in the first round of the 2012 draft. Thought process: there's a chance Von Miller may still be available even at the Bills' new, lower pick. If not, they'll probably be able to acquire some other really good football player. Even if there is a step down in the quality of player they'll be getting, it will be more than offset by the extra first round pick next draft.

 

3) Decision: offer both first round picks in the 2012 draft (plus a few other things) to the team with the #1 overall pick. Thought process: if the Bills are Lucky (pun intended) the team with the first overall pick will already have its QB of the future on the roster, and will be looking to trade down. With two picks relatively early in the first round, the Bills would be the perfect trading partner for that other team! If the Bills are un-Lucky, the team with the first overall pick won't have a QB, and won't be willing to part with the Luck pick at any price. But even if that happens, they could still use their two first rounders in 2012 on other good players. Possibly including a QB.

 

By the time the first three picks of the 2011 draft are made, the Bills will know whether they've succeeded in achieving steps 1 and 2 of this plan. Even if they do, step 3 would still be a likely point of failure. To prepare against the possibility that Luck might not be available to the Bills in 2012, I'd have no objection at all to the Bills using their second round pick on a QB like Christian Ponder. (Though it's unlikely he'll still be available in the second round.) If the Bills succeed in grabbing Ponder + Luck, Ponder could remain in a backup role for several years. Ultimately he'd probably be traded away, much like the Falcons traded away career backup Matt Schaub. (And got good draft compensation for doing so!)

 

OMG.... I couldn't (obviously) have said it better myself! Edward's Arm.... You are the man! Everything you wrote is what my point was in the first place and I apologize to posters who may have mistook my opinion for something else. When I began this post, I should have explained what my opinion was and shied away from making Luck the end-all be all.

 

Edward's Arm hit the nail on the head when he said that I don't think the Bills should take a QB at 3. They absolutely shouldn't, in my opinion, because Gabbert and Newton would probably be second rounders in next year's draft. I've said all along that Newton is light years away from being NFL-ready. I've read recently that he was asked to call a typical play that he called in the huddle at Auburn and he couldn't because he rarely did. The Tigers had a number of simple play calls that came from the sidelines. The coaching staff actually held up cards with numbers on them and Cam would line everybody up, look for his main target & if he wasn't open, he'd tuck the ball in and run. I'd say if you're a "one-option only" QB and not used to calling plays in a huddle, you're not just one (and maybe not even two years away) from having any chance of success in the NFL!

 

As for Gabbert, I like his athleticsm (his speed is almost equal to Newton's), his intelligence (he scored a 42 on the Wonderlic) and his work ethic. Gabbert is far more NFL-ready because he has worked diligently with a quarterbacks coach who used to have that title for the Kansas City Chiefs and has tutored Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman.

 

But as Edward's Arm points out, I think that a guy with the upside and potential of Gabbert is the perfect ingredient for a trade-down scenario. My point all along is to trade with ANY team in the first round that's below #3, accumulate extra picks and draft DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE (and, of course, a legitimate offensive lineman or tight end).

 

I agree with the one poster's point that giving up a #1 pick in 2012 is a stretch for most teams. But this year's draft is not like other drafts. With the uncertainty of the labor situation and the distinct possibility of a rookie cap (if and when the players and owners finally agree), this is as good a time as any for franchise quarterback-needy teams to pull out all the stops.

 

I simply believe that the Bills could take advantage of all of this at #3, ADD QUANTITY and STILL GET QUALITY a few picks further down in the first round (if they don't get Miller, they'd be fine with guys like Fairley or Quinn). I also think that they could be the beneficiary of the perfect storm, with so many teams competing to get the signal callers with the most potential.

 

Again, if the Bills agree to trade down & out of 3, the team trading with them is betting that the QB they take will be their guy for the next decade. I'm sure whichever team that is would be willing (and I believe will have little choice but to) give up their first round pick in 2012.

 

As for Luck, I apologize if most readers here thought he was my only choice for the Bills future "Face of the Franchise". I actually think that at least 3 quarterbacks next year are much better picks for the Bills than Newton, Gabbert, Mallet, Locker, Ponder, Kaepernick or Dalton. Have u ever heard of a guy named Matt Barkley from USC? He wouldn't be a big fall off from Luck in any way and would fit into the "Franchise" role just fine, thank you!

Edited April 24, 2011 by dcjoev

[KOKBILLS]

If the draft is declared illegal, then what good are next years draft picks?

 

Seriously?...I mean...I understand all of the legal wrangling that are currently underway...But come on...The NFL Draft is going nowhere...Easy with the gloom and doom already...

[John from Riverside]

There is absolutely no way that any team would give up a #1 pick in next year's draft to move up one spot. At most, that kind of trade would solicit a 3rd round pick, but in reality, it'd more likely be a 4th rounder.

 

Or, even more likely still, the Bengals would say "go ahead and make your pick" and then take whichever of the top 7 QBs falls to them in round 2. I'm sorry if this sounds dismissive, but there's literally a zero percent chance of that trade occurring.

 

I agree.....I think that giving up a high number 1 to trade up one spot would be idiotic of the bengals.....more like to move that spot you give us your 2nd and 3rd THIS year.......

 

Folks....there is a lot of talent in this draft.......Miller then

 

2 seconds

1 third

2 fourths

 

That is a lot of ammunition for a talent evaluater like Buddy nix to fill QB, OL, DL, LB holes

[Alphadawg7]

Anyone remember Matt Leinart, Brian Brohm, Jake Locker...etc etc?

 

These are all guys that were practically a lock to be the first QB off the board if not the first pick in the draft but chose to go back to school for another year. Leinart slipped out of the top 10 and became the 2nd QB taken...Brohm slipped to the 2nd round and was the 3rd QB taken...Locker is going to almost certainly be somewhere between the 3rd QB off the board to the 6th ot 7th one and may even slip into round 2.

 

There is a long list of examples like this...so I just don't understand all the hoopla and huffing and puffing about MAYBE being able to draft a guy who may very well not even be the highest rated QB next year. He has a new coach on a team not exactly stacked with talent to the point where they are a lock to be a power house next season...his season could easily cause him to slip, not to mention the possibility of injuries.

 

The funniest thing is that these EXACT conversations were all over this board last year about possibly getting a high enough pick to draft Locker this year after he went back to school...and now most people don't even want him and he will 100% for sure be available with our pick.

[Hplarrm]

I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to say the OP's plans "circle around" getting Andrew Luck. Everything he's suggested could be justified even if Luck wasn't available in next year's draft. Look at the following sequence of decisions and underlying thought processes.

 

1) Decision: don't use the third overall pick on a QB in this draft. Thought process: there is not necessarily a QB worthy of the third overall pick. There's a lot to like about Gabbert, but he may lack the touch and accuracy you'd want from your franchise guy. Newton is, well, Newton.

 

2) Decision: trade down from third overall to acquire an additional pick in the first round of the 2012 draft. Thought process: there's a chance Von Miller may still be available even at the Bills' new, lower pick. If not, they'll probably be able to acquire some other really good football player. Even if there is a step down in the quality of player they'll be getting, it will be more than offset by the extra first round pick next draft.

 

3) Decision: offer both first round picks in the 2012 draft (plus a few other things) to the team with the #1 overall pick. Thought process: if the Bills are Lucky (pun intended) the team with the first overall pick will already have its QB of the future on the roster, and will be looking to trade down. With two picks relatively early in the first round, the Bills would be the perfect trading partner for that other team! If the Bills are un-Lucky, the team with the first overall pick won't have a QB, and won't be willing to part with the Luck pick at any price. But even if that happens, they could still use their two first rounders in 2012 on other good players. Possibly including a QB.

 

By the time the first three picks of the 2011 draft are made, the Bills will know whether they've succeeded in achieving steps 1 and 2 of this plan. Even if they do, step 3 would still be a likely point of failure. To prepare against the possibility that Luck might not be available to the Bills in 2012, I'd have no objection at all to the Bills using their second round pick on a QB like Christian Ponder. (Though it's unlikely he'll still be available in the second round.) If the Bills succeed in grabbing Ponder + Luck, Ponder could remain in a backup role for several years. Ultimately he'd probably be traded away, much like the Falcons traded away career backup Matt Schaub. (And got good draft compensation for doing so!)

It seems doubtful me that the Bills are thinking as you propose in any of your three options.

 

Point 1: Gailey has little or history of employing a rookie QB to make his system productive. The past does not determine the future, but it is a pretty good indicator of what an HC is trying to do and given his past real world activities with Fieldler, Bulger, Kodell, and even Fitzy, the Gailey O and team do well with vet. Is he interested in getting a franchise QB if he can? You bet, as who wouldn't be,

 

However, it appears a virtual certainty that Newton is gonna need at least a year of schooling for his pro squad to make it clear to him there is no I in team. Gabbert is likely even productive more slowly than Newton since he not only has to make the huge transition from college to the pros, but he only has had two years of experience running his collegiate offense.

 

There are collegiate QBs that can step right in and play productively, However, their names are ones like Dan Marino and no one mistakes Gabbert for being Dan Marino right now or Joe Flacco and no one mistakes the Bills D for the Ray Lewis led crew which corrected a lot of the Flacco rookie errors and often delivered him the ball in scoring position. I hope Gabbert does eventually become a franchise QB, but my guess is he spends his first year as essentially the #3 disaster QB and it will be fortunate for the Bills and his development into a one-day franchise QB if he never sees a game from anyplace but the sidelines. In his second year, Gabbert might understand NFL Ds well enough and gain the confidence of his teammates where he can hold the #2 slot, but once again it takes a QB of Tom Brady skills with Bledsoe being a stand-up guy helping him to be the starter we want. No one thinks Gabbert is the new Tom Brady.

 

Trading down is by far the best bet for us if we can pull it off.

[akm0404]

if you're so certain that a team has never moved up one spot in the first round, I'd like to know who your source was for that, because Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have made a living out of this type of thinking for years.

 

It doesn't take a "journalist" to come up with ideas such as this

Come on man, you are making yourself look foolish here. Please re-read my last post for comprehension, before accusing someone of not having their facts straight.

 

Again, I will re-iterate for you:

 

Never before, in the history of the NFL Draft, has a team traded a first round pick to move up ONE spot.

 

It doesn't take a ''journalist'' to come up with a silly idea that never has, and never will happen, but one should do some basic research before telling someone to get their facts straight. Just a little learning experience for you. Cheers!

[dcjoev]

Fair game.... I'll do my research, if you do yours.... Still waiting for your sources, by the way. Maybe if you post them, you'll come across as legit. Again, my post was MY opinion and NOT fact! I never said it was, but interestingly enough, my original opinion has been snipped out, although this post still exists. Maybe I'm on to something.... and perhaps on Thursday, my friend, you'll have pie in your face and your foot in your mouth!

 

 

Come on man, you are making yourself look foolish here. Please re-read my last post for comprehension, before accusing someone of not having their facts straight.

 

Again, I will re-iterate for you:

 

Never before, in the history of the NFL Draft, has a team traded a first round pick to move up ONE spot.

 

It doesn't take a ''journalist'' to come up with a silly idea that never has, and never will happen, but one should do some basic research before telling someone to get their facts straight. Just a little learning experience for you. Cheers!

[papazoid]

Top 100 Consensus Prospects:

 

http://cdsdraft.com/rankings/top-100/