starrymessenger Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I agree with those who say that next season will probably reveal exactly what we have with Fitz. At 28 and with 5+ years of pro experience he may very well be coming into his own. Chan is an offensive minded coach who has success with QBs. Having seen the result of his work in Canada for years, I also think Cortez was a great, though quiet, hire for the Bills. He is an outstanding QB coach. Marc Trestman, the Montreal HC, who also has a history and reputation for grooming QBs, including NFL QBs, has called him the best in that department north of the border. If these guys can help Fitz improve his technique he has the brains, leadership and attitude to be a legit NFL starter. The stakes are pretty high for the Bills but more so for RF himself. If he goes on a tear next year with so many teams needing a QB he is likely to be a hot commodity in free agency for the 2012 season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JinWPB Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 The only stats that matter... Fitz averaged close to 2 TDS and 1 INT per game played. When you recall that we had a hard time scoring 3 points a game before he took over...... Want to fix this team, finish the o-line with a RT and a good TE. Address the Defense; stop the run, pressure the QB. If Merriman pans out and we shade toward the 3/4; DT/DE ,a middle LB that can drop in coverage on a TE and actually defend the pass,a SS that can cover and support the run. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 alpha and dorkington are one in the same...."fitzy is in the bottom third of the league for QB's" Look at hsi yards and td's and compare them to the bottom third (with two fewer games) and get back to me. With the likes of alpha and dorkington it'll always be soemthing....b/c Fitz has a very solid TD/INT ratio we have to rip on his comp. %...had his td's been lower, well, then guess what they'd be ripping on.. there was an approval rating of head coaches done in the nfl and Bill Bellichick was at around 90% if i recall correctly..which leads one to wonder what the 10% dislike...people like alpha and dorkington will never be happy with anything short of perfection which is never going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 1. Nick Fairley - DT/DE - Auburn 2. Dontay Moch - LB - Nevada 3. Sam Acho - DE - Texas 4. Chris Hairston - OT - Clemson 4. Clint Boling - OG/OT - Georgia 5. Greg Salas - WR - Hawaii 6. Devon Torrence - CB - Ohio State 7. Zach Hurd - OG - Connecticut Liking 1st 3 rounds of this draft, not familiar round 4 on though. Can you tell more about them, esp. Salas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 alpha and dorkington are one in the same...."fitzy is in the bottom third of the league for QB's" Look at hsi yards and td's and compare them to the bottom third (with two fewer games) and get back to me. With the likes of alpha and dorkington it'll always be soemthing....b/c Fitz has a very solid TD/INT ratio we have to rip on his comp. %...had his td's been lower, well, then guess what they'd be ripping on.. there was an approval rating of head coaches done in the nfl and Bill Bellichick was at around 90% if i recall correctly..which leads one to wonder what the 10% dislike...people like alpha and dorkington will never be happy with anything short of perfection which is never going to happen. I find completion percentage and turnover rate to be more valuable than yards. If you would read what I've said elsewhere... I *LIKE* Fitzpatrick. He plays with guts, he's an awesome guy, he never gives up, he takes chances. But fact is, he isn't that accurate, and that costs us. We don't need to replace him right away, but he's also not a guy that will carry a team to the superbowl ala Brady, Manning, etc. He needs a solid team around him in order for the Bills to get to the promised land. I'd prefer him be starter and we build up the team around him. But Ralph, industry guys and everyone here seems dead set on taking a QB. I just hope the replacement is better, and as great as we need to make up for the glaring holes in the rest of the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is the best thread started around here in a while. Good discussion. As Gailey said on the Thurman Thomas Show, 'Fitz is our QB for 2011'. Gailey did acknowledge areas that Fitz needs to improve, but there was no wavering in his support. Fix the _efense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffaloed in Pa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 One Player says it all. Steve Stone Hands Johnson. Yeah I would be looking for him with the game on the line. Runs great patterns. Doesn`t take care of the ball and has below average hands. Buy the boy a Jugs machine for home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadidliac Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is the best thread started around here in a while. Good discussion. As Gailey said on the Thurman Thomas Show, 'Fitz is our QB for 2011'. Gailey did acknowledge areas that Fitz needs to improve, but there was no wavering in his support. Fix the _efense. He acts,talks,has the look of an above average QB. I believe if he gets a productive TE, the receivers stay healthy, he can be very productive at his position. He definately was on a team this year where I believe Fitz felt like he had to "make something happen". So, with that said, Fitz was forced into some bad throws. I will admit there were plenty that made me scratch my head. I am going to wait 'till after the 2011 season on my oppinion on weather Fitz could be a franchise QB. I just have never had this much of a "gut fealing" that the guy could be special some day. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Squirrel Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some points that I don't think have been covered: Using cumulative stats tells a story but not a complete one. If you are to assume (and frankly this is a dubious assumption) that comp% is significant when judging accuracy, you HAVE to look at individual games to get a more complete picture. In Fitz' case, he was above the *seemingly* all-important 60% mark in well over half his games (8 of 13, or 61.5%), but still finished 57.8%. Two games under 50% did a great deal of damage. BTW, this was the same case last year when we were comparing Fitz to Edwards...Fitz' numbers were ruined by the Jets, while Edwards threw only 5 passes against the best pass D in the league BY A MILE (he completed all of them...for one whopping first down, of course). Most of the Fitz backers here have already pointed out that he attempts higher degree of difficulty passes; how much of this is him or how much is because of game situations is hard to pin down, but the results are predictable: Pass attempts 21 to 40 yds (Ignoring longer than 40 due to most of them being hail-marys; Brady thanks me): Fitz: 54 attempts (12.2% of total attempts); 26% comp; 5 TDs; 2 INTs Brady: 30 att (6% of tot); 47% comp; 6 TDs; 0 INTs P. Manning: 77 att (11% of tot); 30% comp; 10 TDs; 5 INTs Brees: 49 att (7.4% of tot); 44.9%; 9 TDs; 3 INTs and a couple guys who had higher QB ratings than Fitz but I feel had worse seasons: E. Manning: 54 att (10% of tot); 41% comp; 9 TDs, 3 INTs Palmer: 35 att (6% of tot); 34.3% comp; 6 TDs; 3 INTs Clearly, longer passes are harder for EVERY passer to complete; Brady is the best at it and still is under 50%. Peyton Manning is almost equally "inaccurate" on longer passes as Fitz...is it a coincidence that he has a similarly high percentage of long pass attempts? I really wish I had time (or knew where it was already computed) to run all QBs and also find out league averages on all this stuff. Another point: fans here were quick to dismiss Fitz' numbers early this season because of so-called garbage time. This is an example that shows you just can't have it both ways: NE and JAC were covering pretty loose, and Fitz made them pay (although obviously not enough to overcome the Bills' wet toilet paper defense). So he's accurate in situations when he's getting little pressure and the safeties are 50 yards back. He also was deadly accurate in '09 in a snowstorm, and also throwing bombs when teams overplayed the run. What does this prove? That under ideal circumstances, his accuracy isn't much of an issue. I got into it here a year ago with folks who thought Fitz couldn't improve; he did, and might continue to do so. I thought touch was every bit as much a problem as accuracy. I thought he too often rifled dump-offs to the RBs when he needed to take a little off. I thought he fixated on receivers and ignored the TEs and RBs too often. I thought it was extremely troublesome that he fumbled 6 times (lost 5) in his last 4 games after only fumbling 2 times (lost 0) in his first 9. These things are fixable. The defense............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes let's argue over 2% in completion rate. Less than a catch a game. When everyone knows he has to pass. With no line. No TE. Questionable WRs. Who drop balls. Please. This stat means little unless you're Brees at 70% or someone at 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 (edited) my college coach put it this way "Stats are for losers" you can slant things to look good bad or what ever way you want Edited January 10, 2011 by CardinalScotts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in San Diego Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Fitzy didn't have the benefit of all training camp and pre season to ramp up his skill before the stats machine starts recording. I think that fact drops his percentage some. He came in cold and had to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cadidliac Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't understand why Bills fan would want to bash what could be a glimmer of hope or a positive thing for the team. Fitz (QB) is one position on the team that actually could be solved already. Just don't understand why a Bills fan would want that to be untrue. Fitz actualy gave the team a chance in most games he played than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This was in another thread, but since it keeps coming up in multiple threads I felt it deserved a seperate topic to finally dispell this myth that Fitz's completion % was so low because of dropped passes in comparison to other teams. Here are the real facts based on the dropped pass stats that have been compiled for this season. 1. Buffalo was 17th in the NFL in dropped passes. 2. Out of the 16 teams with MORE dropped passes than the Bills, 13 of them had QB's with a higher completion percentage than Fitz 3. Fitz ranks 27th in the league in completion % this year only above Kerry Collins, Sanchez, Claussen, and Derek Anderson. 4. 12 of those 13 QB's with MORE drops and a higher completion % still completed over 60% of their passes with only Hasselbeck under 60% at 59.9%... 5. Fitz completed a lowly 57.8% 6. Bonus fact: He is tied for 9th most INT's this year yet only played in 13 games and got bailed out on many more INT's through unrelated penalties or drops on non-tipped balls that were thrown directly into the hands of the defenders. Someone started a thread comparing Fitz to the "Big 3", so lets look at the big 3: 1. Indy had the MOST drops and yet the 2nd highest completion % in the league was Manning at 66.3% 2. Saints were 7th in drops and yet Brees led the league in completion % at 68.1% 3. NE is 4th in the league in most drops and yet Brady is 4th in the league at 65.9% So can this excuse for Fitz's accuracy issue be finally put to rest and just realize he isnt very accurate? 13 QB's had more drops than Fitz and yet still managed to complete over 60% of their passes (hasselbeck actually was 59.9% as only exception, still 2% higher than Fitz). Fitz's completion % is low because he isnt a very accurate QB, never has been ever in his entire NFL career... This wasnt to bash him, but to be honest about what he is versus what he isnt. I love his passion, guts, and grit and he is light years better than Trent ever was...but that doesnt change that he just isnt that accurate and not nearly accurate enough to be a consistently succesful starter in this league. This is an excellent post; and I agree with it. I'd like to draw attention to the point you raised about Fitz's interceptions--a point which, to me, is at least as good as the one you raised about completion percentage. For those who for whatever reason don't like the idea of using completion percentage, I'll add in yards per attempt. Yards per attempt is, for quarterbacks, analogous to yards per carry for running backs. Trent Edwards' career yards per attempt is 6.5. Ryan Fitzpatrick's average is 6.0; but he increased it to 6.8 this past season. Tom Brady's average is 7.4, Drew Brees' average is 7.3, Peyton Manning's is 7.6, and Aaron Rodgers' is 7.9. Ryan Fitzpatrick is obviously not in that category, as you can also tell from the eyeball test; as well as the number of inaccurate passes he still throws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downunderbill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm happy with Fitz. He needed to complete an extra 10 passes over the entire season to hit that magical 60% completion percentage. I put those ten passes, if not more, down to the O-Line alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 (edited) And hopefully those 10 passes were at the end of games to win/ice a game. Edited January 10, 2011 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Gun Special Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm happy with Fitz. He needed to complete an extra 10 passes over the entire season to hit that magical 60% completion percentage. I put those ten passes, if not more, down to the O-Line alone. He needs to get a little higher that 60%, bc that still keeps him near the bottom third of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He needs to get a little higher that 60%, bc that still keeps him near the bottom third of the league. This offense is not a west coach crossing patern dump it off high completion percentage offense. If Fitz is "around" 59-62 % he's fine. The email about needed 10 more completions really sums it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't understand why Bills fan would want to bash what could be a glimmer of hope or a positive thing for the team. Fitz (QB) is one position on the team that actually could be solved already. Just don't understand why a Bills fan would want that to be untrue. Fitz actualy gave the team a chance in most games he played than not. See the way I look at it is why in the world would any Bills Fan assume Fitz is going to continue to improve if The Bills do this, that, or the other thing?...Where does all that optimism come from? Is that ever the way things go with this Team...Well at least for the past decade? I'm not saying Fitz won't improve, he very well may...But I'm not betting on it...that's for certain..."Could be" is not going to stop me from wanting to improve the QB Position IF that's what Nix and Gailey think they can do...Fitz is going to be there for at least 2011 no matter what...So there is no time like the present to make sure if Fitz backslides, or stays about the same, that we have one heck of a good back-up plan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chimp Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 What does that even change? Its a pecentage. Not to mention, the Bills were 17th in the league in dropped passes as a team, but Fitz only played 13 games and balls were dropped in the 3 games he didnt play. That means, he had even FEWER dropped passes then out team total of 26 as not all the dropped passes were ones thrown by Fitz making his completion % even more inexcusable. And screen passes thrown out of bounds, in the ground, or behind the WR...seriously, I have never seen a QB struggle to complete a screen pass properly as much as he did. Even on completed ones often they were off target causing the RB or WR to have to have to adjust to the ball allowing the D to recover and stuff the play. Come on now. Bledsoe and Losman both struggled to hit a screen pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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