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Truth about Fitz comp % and his accuracy


Alphadawg7

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This thread is interesting as the point of the original post I started was simply to dispell the myth that specifically dropped passes are not the reason Fitz's completion % was so low. I have never at any point said completion % is the "be-all and end-all measurement of QB play" at any point. I did state the FACT that QB rating is very lowly regarded by anyone who seriously or professionally evaluates quarterbacks because its fundamentally flawed and inaccurate. That doesnt mean its not ever a good gauge, its just not reliable so they care less about that then they do for the trinity of comp %, ypa, and 3rd conversions.

 

NO ONE STAT is the "be all and end all" for any position in any sport, and I have been far from claiming that. If it was, then Trent would be a hot prospect with his infalted comp %, but everyone knows thats because he throws the bulk of his passes under 5 yards. Just like with any stat, its a starting point...trust me, there are dozens of stats the coaches value highly that you wont find on your ESPN stat check. Fitz OBVIOUSLY brings other good things to the table, things I have praised him for continuously in this thread and other threads...that doesnt change the fact that he struggles mightily with accuracy and as along as that continues he will struggle to be a consistently effective QB in this league.

 

And like I said before, there are exceptions to every common occurence, rule, philosophy, etc in every aspect of life. So all these people trying to find those exceptions about accuracy are really missing the point of the entire thread which was simply: Fitz's dismal completion % was not because of dropped passes in comparison to the other QB's in the NFL.

 

I also find it interesting that the one post in here that keeps getting ignored is the one about the exaggeration going on around here about how good he was this year. By focusing only on his TD totals, it looks more like he had a good year...yet when you go game by game, he actually only had 4 solid or good ones and 9 below average to awful ones.

 

In fact, there is only one stat anyone can ever point to and that was his TD totals...yet half of his TD's came in his first 4 games.

 

Does anyone here even realize that in the last 9 games of the season he had 12 TD'S AND 16 TURNOVERS? I mean, lets be honest here, thats not very good, especially 4 of them came in one game where he benefited greatly from both starting safeties getting knocked out of the game as he was atrocious up to that point against Cincy.

 

I get people love the guy, but I prefer to keep my personal like for the guy aside when I am being honest about his season and short comings.

 

 

 

 

"…yet when you go game by game, he actually only had 4 solid or good ones and 9 below average to awful ones."

 

 

 

You sir, are an idiot. Anyone who would make that statement about Ryan Fitzpatrick's season is a moron. Sorry but it had to be said.

 

Dude had 3 bad games, the rest were either above average or average.

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Holy crap, you just won't give up will you ? Why on earth will you choose the last 9 games ?

And FWIW, Fitz threw 15 INTs the entire season. So you are wrong there also.

This thread is getting moronic cos I have no idea what you really want happening. I get it that you think Fitz sucks and will dig up any stat to prove your point. The sad part is I keep responding and humoring you.

 

You should learn to read before you insult and put your foot in your mouth. He had FIVE LOST FUMBLES to go with his 11 INT's over his last 9 games and no rushing TD's during that span...making his stats 11 TD's (four in one game) and 16 TURNOVERS. I wrote he had 16 TURNOVERS...you do know what fumbles count as turnovers right? But I get you want to ignore those because it doesnt suppurt your uneccessary insulting rant.

 

And I pointed out the last 9 games because that is how he finished this year...his LAST 9 games. He started better than he finished...his first 3 games he ended up with inflated stats as we were behind at least 3 scores (NE, JETS, JAX) and got some late garbage time stats, and then he had the big Balt game...after that, he had a pretty below average season with the exception of Cincy where he needed both starting safeties to get hurt before he could stop throwing INT's and Pitt where SJ screwed him over with all the drops.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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I'm surprised it takes 3 pages for people to understand that Fitzpatrick just isn't very good. He has been below average his entire career, and this year was no different. Use your eyes, use the stats, use the team record, it doesn't matter. He just isn't a championship QB. But hey, most aren't, and in Buffalo, all we really care about is rebuilding to 7-9 so we can maintain the status quo.

 

Cheers!

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"…yet when you go game by game, he actually only had 4 solid or good ones and 9 below average to awful ones."

 

 

 

You sir, are an idiot. Anyone who would make that statement about Ryan Fitzpatrick's season is a moron. Sorry but it had to be said.

 

Dude had 3 bad games, the rest were either above average or average.

 

Really, this is your reply? I love how when posters cant actually logically explain their argument they just call you an idiot and say what ever you said isnt so while providing nothing of any relevance what so ever to the discussion.

 

I on the other hand handed you a game by game breakdown of my opinnion of him having just 4 above average to good games with 9 below average to awful games. Since you are incapable of actually replying to that and just spouting off at the mouth with uneccesarry insults because I dont ball wash your favorite player, I will post it here again for your enjoyment:

 

Lets be honest, Fitz only had solid or good games against:

Balt, Cincy, Pit, and Miami and yet his 2 straignt INT's in Balt gave away our lead for good and forced us to play catch up all game, and he got bailed out in Cincy when the 2 starting safeties got hurt because he was awful that game prior to that(not to mention how he threw 3 INT's in his first 3 drives, but one was reversed because of roughing the passer) and his Miami game was just ok. Pitt was a good game for him as he came up big finally with game on the line but SJ dropped it.

 

Lets look at the rest of his games:

NE - was ok considering he just gotten the job, but struggled to move the ball a lot in that game, got a garbage time TD at end.

NYJ - was terrible all game, got a garbage time TD at end.

JAC - started strong, but disappeared in the 2nd half until he got a garbage time TD with one min left in the game.

KC - was awful all game with the exception of a single drive. Throws INT when we are driving for win in regulation then goes on to complete just 33% of his passes in OT including missing a wide open Spiller to win game BEFORE we missed the long kick.

CHI - Struggled most of the game, threw game ending INT again.

DET - Struggled most of the game to move the ball

MIN - Was awful again this game

CLE - Another bad game

NE - Horrendous game

Edited by Alphadawg7
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Really, this is your reply? I love how when posters cant actually logically explain their argument they just call you an idiot and say what ever you said isnt so while providing nothing of any relevance what so ever to the discussion.

 

I on the other hand handed you a game by game breakdown of my opinnion of him having just 4 above average to good games with 9 below average to awful games. Since you are incapable of actually replying to that and just spouting off at the mouth with uneccesarry insults because I dont ball wash your favorite player, I will post it here again for your enjoyment:

 

Lets be honest, Fitz only had solid or good games against:

Balt, Cincy, Pit, and Miami and yet his 2 straignt INT's in Balt gave away our lead for good and forced us to play catch up all game, and he got bailed out in Cincy when the 2 starting safeties got hurt because he was awful that game prior to that(not to mention how he threw 3 INT's in his first 3 drives, but one was reversed because of roughing the passer) and his Miami game was just ok. Pitt was a good game for him as he came up big finally with game on the line but SJ dropped it.

 

Lets look at the rest of his games:

NE - was ok considering he just gotten the job, but struggled to move the ball a lot in that game, got a garbage time TD at end.

NYJ - was terrible all game, got a garbage time TD at end.

JAC - started strong, but disappeared in the 2nd half until he got a garbage time TD with one min left in the game.

KC - was awful all game with the exception of a single drive. Throws INT when we are driving for win in regulation then goes on to complete just 33% of his passes in OT including missing a wide open Spiller to win game BEFORE we missed the long kick.

CHI - Struggled most of the game, threw game ending INT again.

DET - Struggled most of the game to move the ball

MIN - Was awful again this game

CLE - Another bad game

NE - Horrendous game

 

 

 

Jets, Vikings and the second Patriots game were the only games he played badly.

 

All the other ones the Bills either won or came damn close to winning because he was playing the quarterback position well to very well.

 

Enough with your stupid parsing of stats in a vane attempt to support your weakling argument. Want a stat? The Bills had 6 rushing TDs all season long. Boom, there's your stat buddy. The Bills had virtually no rushing game, no defense, couldn't stop a runningback if they tried, no tight end, yet virtually every week had a QB who kept them in the game.

 

Finally, you laughingly fail to mention Parrish and Evans' injuries as factors in his declining stats! You guys are not only stupid, you're ridiculous.

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You should learn to read before you insult and put your foot in your mouth. He had FIVE LOST FUMBLES to go with his 11 INT's over his last 9 games and no rushing TD's during that span...making his stats 11 TD's (four in one game) and 16 TURNOVERS. I wrote he had 16 TURNOVERS...you do know what fumbles count as turnovers right? But I get you want to ignore those because it doesnt suppurt your uneccessary insulting rant.

 

And I pointed out the last 9 games because that is how he finished this year...his LAST 9 games. He started better than he finished...his first 3 games he ended up with inflated stats as we were behind at least 3 scores (NE, JETS, JAX) and got some late garbage time stats, and then he had the big Balt game...after that, he had a pretty below average season with the exception of Cincy where he needed both starting safeties to get hurt before he could stop throwing INT's and Pitt where SJ screwed him over with all the drops.

Okay, you got me on the turnover versus INT stat.

Now for your other 'points'. You say that others are bashing you without specific data. And I say you are pulling specific stats only to bolster your case. No matter which stat you pull out and what your subjective opinion on his performance in the last 9 games is (as in your next post), the fact is that he stabilized the QB position by presenting a clear picture of his strengths and weaknesses. He has made that unknown go away. Most all on this board acknowledge that he is NOT a franchise QB. But he has made that position a less critical need than LB, RT, RG. And that is my point. I repeat now - what is yours besides Fitz sucks ? Do you want us to trade away the farm for someones current starting QB ? Do you want us to tank next season to get Luck in 2012 ? Where are you going with this insanely long thread of yours?

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Jets, Vikings and the second Patriots game were the only games he played badly.All the other ones the Bills either won or came damn close to winning because he was playing the quarterback position well to very well.

 

Enough with your stupid parsing of stats in a vane attempt to support your weakling argument. Want a stat? The Bills had 6 rushing TDs all season long. Boom, there's your stat buddy. The Bills had virtually no rushing game, no defense, couldn't stop a runningback if they tried, no tight end, yet virtually every week had a QB who kept them in the game.

 

Finally, you laughingly fail to mention Parrish and Evans' injuries as factors in his declining stats! You guys are not only stupid, you're ridiculous.

 

What about the K.C. and Chicago games? How do you assess those performances?

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/ryanfitzpatrick/gamelogs?id=FIT792915

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Jets, Vikings and the second Patriots game were the only games he played badly.

 

All the other ones the Bills either won or came damn close to winning because he was playing the quarterback position well to very well.

 

Enough with your stupid parsing of stats in a vane attempt to support your weakling argument. Want a stat? The Bills had 6 rushing TDs all season long. Boom, there's your stat buddy. The Bills had virtually no rushing game, no defense, couldn't stop a runningback if they tried, no tight end, yet virtually every week had a QB who kept them in the game.

 

Finally, you laughingly fail to mention Parrish and Evans' injuries as factors in his declining stats! You guys are not only stupid, you're ridiculous.

 

Really? Those were his only bad games? Seems you just want to label blowouts as bad games. Just because a game was winnable or was won doesnt mean each player had a good game...this is a discussion about an individuals performance which you cant seem to seperate.

 

One game I just cant believe you left off was the KC game, so lets just look closer at that one to illustrate that just because the game was winnable doesnt mean he had a good or even average game. Here is my reasoning on why this was not a good game for Fitz, in fact, it was pretty bad.

 

First, he was bad almost the whole game with the exception of a single drive where he got the late TD. Ond drive doesnt equal a good game, in fact he was even bad after that TD to end the game and in OT. He had 1 INT, but he also had 3 INT's land (and they were not tipped, they were thrown right into their hands) right in the hands of the KC defense and were flat out dropped (2 by the same defender), one of which should have been a pick 6 on the first play of the game.

 

Speaking of his INT, with the game on the line and all tied up, he throws an awful pass way over the head of an open WR for an INT where if he completes that pass we have a first down in KC territory and plenty of time on the clock and can win the game in regulation with a FG attempt. He follows up that INT by completing just 33% of his passes in OT including missing by 5 yards a wide open Spiller in the end zone to win the game BEFORE we missed the FG.

 

How was this not a bad game? My guess is that you think because we still had a chance to win the game that means he didnt struggle. Well, thats not how you evaluate an individual performance unless you are doing so to be able to turn a blind eye to just how bad of a game he had.

 

So, I fail to see how this wasnt a bad game for him. Just because Lindell could have still won INSPITE of his bad game and mistakes, doesnt mean he didnt have a bad game.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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What about the K.C. and Chicago games? How do you assess those performances?

 

http://www.nfl.com/players/ryanfitzpatrick/gamelogs?id=FIT792915

 

 

Those were both good games by Fitzpatrick for differing reasons that the morons here are trying to rewrite history and say they were bad…

 

In KC...

Fitzpatrick threw the game tying TD pass on a 4th and 5 to Stevie Johnson. On their second possession in overtime, Fitzpatrick moved the Bills from their own 10 yard line to the KC 34 yard line (all of those yards came from Fitz except for a 3 yard carry by Jackson). Lindell hit the first field goal in overtime. Wasn't his fault Lindell spit the bit on the second try.

 

 

In Chicago,…

1. Threw a TD pass

2. Threw a 45 yard completion to Johnson which set up a 4 yard TD run.

3. Threw for another 30 passing yards in a drive which started at the 49 yard line which set up a 1 yard TD run.

 

That's 21 points against a Chicago defense, were it not for the Bills missing an extra point and chasing that 1 point the rest of the day. Fitzpatrick shouldn't have even been in the position to force throws at the end. This one should have been an overtime game. I blame the special teams and the defense for that game.

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Okay, you got me on the turnover versus INT stat.

Now for your other 'points'. You say that others are bashing you without specific data. And I say you are pulling specific stats only to bolster your case. No matter which stat you pull out and what your subjective opinion on his performance in the last 9 games is (as in your next post), the fact is that he stabilized the QB position by presenting a clear picture of his strengths and weaknesses. He has made that unknown go away. Most all on this board acknowledge that he is NOT a franchise QB. But he has made that position a less critical need than LB, RT, RG. And that is my point. I repeat now - what is yours besides Fitz sucks ? Do you want us to trade away the farm for someones current starting QB ? Do you want us to tank next season to get Luck in 2012 ? Where are you going with this insanely long thread of yours?

 

I am only responding to others posts. I was only discussing the specific myth about WR drops being thrown around so much as the reason for Fitz's low completion percentage as it simply was not true.

 

I have not made any other assertions to like he is biggest problem, lets trade the farm to get a QB or tank next year to try and get Luck. I have said numerous times in many threads, I am completely fine with Fitz at QB next year and bringing in one of the many intriguing rookies in the draft to groom behind him. I am also very open to bringing in a vet like Young or Kolb (neither of which I am a big fan of either) and letting them battle it out in camp simply because I think Chan will get the most out of who ever emerges.

 

Other people like to say things like we should tank next year to get Luck, I think there is even a thread on it, one you will notice I am not even in. Problem with this board is that if you say anything critical of a beloved player here, people like to blow it all out of proportion, start exaggerating things and putting words in your mouth.

 

Again, as I have said numerous times, the ONLY point was to dispell the much claimed myth that dropped passes are why his completion percentage was low.

 

The funniest part about this is that I really like Fitz and how he plays...but that gets lost in a discussion like this.

 

I guess the difference for me is that I seperate my personal feelings about the guy from my analysis of him. So just because I like him doesnt mean I am satisfied with him putting up 12 TD's and 16 turnovers in his last 9 games. Thats not good enough for me. Seems to be good enough for others though simply because its better than Trent could do.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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Of course you may be right and Fitz is not going to get any better. I don't deny that.

 

But as regards the bolded paragraph, I would say that one simple explanation for this paradox is that "the all-important yards-per-attempt" stat (and the completion percentage stat) is far from the be-all and end-all measurement of QB play that the OP has asserted throughout this thread, using it as a club against all counter-arguments.

 

Yes, Fitz did not complete 60% of his passes or average more than 7 yards per attempt. But he was less than on completion per game below that standard, and he did many other things that are important to QB success (such as throw TD passes, run for first downs, make quick decisions that improved the performance of a shaky o-line, etc.), and if you focus on just Alphadawg7's stats you come away with conclusions like Trent Edwards is a better QB than Fitzpatrick. That suggests to me that such an approach is flawed as a universal standard of judgment, even if you put a "generally" in front of it.

 

We'll see how it plays out next season. If it makes any difference to you, I agree that the Bills could certainly use still better QB play if they are to improve, and if Fitz doesn't get any better the team will eventually hit a wall.

I did not mean to suggest that Yards Per Attempt was the only stat we should be examining. And I think you raised an excellent point about how Fitz made the OL look better than it was, how he ran for first downs, and threw TDs. Those things are important; as is the fact that he was apparently the 9th best at converting third downs into first downs. His play during the 2010 season was at a higher level than I thought he could achieve. But he still struggled with accuracy; and that showed up in his yards per attempt stat. Seldom if ever will a quarterback correct significant accuracy problems after he's been in the league as long as Fitz has. I have no doubt that Fitz works very hard in practice; so if his lack of accuracy could have been solved by hard work, it would have been. What we're looking at is a guy who's much more than the backup quarterback we all thought we were getting when the Bills signed him, but much less than a QB in the Brees/Rodgers category.

 

Edit: I agree with AlphaDawg's analysis of the KC game. I realize that some potential interceptions get dropped. But for a defense to drop three very easy interceptions in the same game seems a bit much. Add to that the incompletions that resulted from some of Fitz's other inaccurate throws, and you have a performance well below what you'd expect from a long-term answer at quarterback.

Edited by Edwards' Arm
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Those were both good games by Fitzpatrick for differing reasons that the morons here are trying to rewrite history and say they were bad…

 

In KC...

Fitzpatrick threw the game tying TD pass on a 4th and 5 to Stevie Johnson. On their second possession in overtime, Fitzpatrick moved the Bills from their own 10 yard line to the KC 34 yard line (all of those yards came from Fitz except for a 3 yard carry by Jackson). Lindell hit the first field goal in overtime. Wasn't his fault Lindell spit the bit on the second try.

 

 

In Chicago,…

1. Threw a TD pass

2. Threw a 45 yard completion to Johnson which set up a 4 yard TD run.

3. Threw for another 30 passing yards in a drive which started at the 49 yard line which set up a 1 yard TD run.

 

That's 21 points against a Chicago defense, were it not for the Bills missing an extra point and chasing that 1 point the rest of the day. Fitzpatrick shouldn't have even been in the position to force throws at the end. This one should have been an overtime game. I blame the special teams and the defense for that game.

 

Ah KC...I already broke the KC game down. Funny how you point out the Lindell miss but leave out the missed wide open Spiller in the end zone to win the game BEFORE Lindell attempted that very difficult kick...funny you also leave out the INT he threw in the final minutes of regulation where he missed badly an open WR for a first down deep in KC territory where we could have had Lindell attempt a shorter game winning FG in regulation. As well as ignore how bad Fitz was the rest of the game too.

 

Chi...another game where he throws a bad INT with the game on the line. 2 INT's, 1 TD including a game losing INT does not equal a good game for him, he even said so himself.

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I am only responding to others posts. I was only discussing the specific myth about WR drops being thrown around so much as the reason for Fitz's low completion percentage as it simply was not true.

 

I have not made any other assertions to like he is biggest problem, lets trade the farm to get a QB or tank next year to try and get Luck. I have said numerous times in many threads, I am completely fine with Fitz at QB next year and bringing in one of the many intriguing rookies in the draft to groom behind him. I am also very open to bringing in a vet like Young or Kolb (neither of which I am a big fan of either) and letting them battle it out in camp simply because I think Chan will get the most out of who ever emerges.

 

Other people like to say things like we should tank next year to get Luck, I think there is even a thread on it, one you will notice I am not even in. Problem with this board is that if you say anything critical of a beloved player here, people like to blow it all out of proportion, start exaggerating things and putting words in your mouth.

 

Again, as I have said numerous times, the ONLY point was to dispell the much claimed myth that dropped passes are why his completion percentage was low.

 

The funniest part about this is that I really like Fitz and how he plays...but that gets lost in a discussion like this.

 

I guess the difference for me is that I seperate my personal feelings about the guy from my analysis of him. So just because I like him doesnt mean I am satisfied with him putting up 12 TD's and 16 turnovers in his last 9 games. Thats not good enough for me. Seems to be good enough for others though simply because its better than Trent could do.

 

 

 

No, you said something that was an outrageous falsehood which is why you got pounded on. With friends like you, Fitzpatrick don't need any enemies.

 

I like Fitzpatrick and think he has the ability to get to the Eli Manning level. In fact, I think he's already there. Will he ever be an all time great? No. But you don't always need all time great to win it all. Fitzpatrick turned the corner this year and is now on the positive end of the learning curve. He can get this team a championship if we could ever get a solid run blocking offensive line that can pound out the tough yards in the 4th quarter, and a defense that can stop the run, get to the qb and get some turnovers.

 

The Bills can now use a mid round pick on a QB to develop while still trying to win it all with Fitzpatrick in the next few years.

 

Now tell us, you guys secretly have bearded voodoo dolls in an attempt to lose him to a freak injury for the whole 2011 season so that the Bills have a real shot at Luck in 2012…LOL

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We all need to better appreciate the difference between being a quarterback and being a passer.

 

Cutting down on turnovers and raising completion percentage by 5% is doable. That can be fixed.

 

Teaching someone to become a quarterback isn't so easy.

 

Fitz has the quarterbacking part of the position down. I dare say that only a handful of current QBs are better at quarterbacking.

 

Like someone else noted earlier, the revelation of Fitz has allowed us to make QB less a priority. That's huge. If we take one early in the draft there's no pressure to start him immediately. If we decide no QB is worth taking THIS year, Fitz gives us the luxury of waiting until we CAN get our guy.

 

We can do a helluva lot worse than the Amish Rifle for the time being.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Ah KC...I already broke the KC game down. Funny how you point out the Lindell miss but leave out the missed wide open Spiller in the end zone to win the game BEFORE Lindell attempted that very difficult kick...funny you also leave out the INT he threw in the final minutes of regulation where he missed badly an open WR for a first down deep in KC territory where we could have had Lindell attempt a shorter game winning FG in regulation. As well as ignore how bad Fitz was the rest of the game too.

 

Chi...another game where he throws a bad INT with the game on the line. 2 INT's, 1 TD including a game losing INT does not equal a good game for him, he even said so himself.

 

 

Sorry, but my break down beats your break down.

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No, you said something that was an outrageous falsehood which is why you got pounded on. With friends like you, Fitzpatrick don't need any enemies.

 

I like Fitzpatrick and think he has the ability to get to the Eli Manning level. In fact, I think he's already there. Will he ever be an all time great? No. But you don't always need all time great to win it all. Fitzpatrick turned the corner this year and is now on the positive end of the learning curve. He can get this team a championship if we could ever get a solid run blocking offensive line that can pound out the tough yards in the 4th quarter, and a defense that can stop the run, get to the qb and get some turnovers.

 

The Bills can now use a mid round pick on a QB to develop while still trying to win it all with Fitzpatrick in the next few years.

 

Now tell us, you guys secretly have bearded voodoo dolls in an attempt to lose him to a freak injury for the whole 2011 season so that the Bills have a real shot at Luck in 2012…LOL

 

LOL...I made no claims of "outrageous falsehood"

 

Anyway, its ok that you like Fitz and think whatever you want to think about him, thats not even what this thread was about. Its also ok that I am not satsified with his struggles with accuracy and consistency...nor am I satisfied with a ratio of 12 TD's and 16 turnovers over his last 9 games, especially since 1/3 rd of his TD's came in ONE game.

 

I think my discussion with you has run its course, if you can call it that considering you pretty much operate in the realm of insults and exaggerations. We will just have to agree to disagree on this. The original topic was to illustrate that dropped passes are not why his completion percentage was lower than 26 other starting QB's this year, and I think thats pretty clearly shown. All this other opinnion stuff can go back and forth when there is really never going to be a changing of anyones mind.

 

Sorry, but my break down beats your break down.

 

You mean the breakdown where you ignore the 2 game costing mistakes by Fitz BEFORE, thats right BEFORE, Lindell ever attempted a FG in OT because the dont support your insult laden rants? Not to mention the awful game he had outside of the one drive you want to focus on and yet ignore all his bad drives as if they didnt happen... :thumbsup:

Edited by Alphadawg7
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