dpberr Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I do not believe any preseason analysis of teams since 1999. Every preseason analysis had that as a season of doom for the downtrodden St. Louis Rams, even more so after Trent Green was lost for the season and the team had to rely on some dude named Kurt Warner, and some old, out of touch coach named Dick Vermeil. That's all you heard about. The press was just so completely absolutely wrong, not only on the Rams but other teams...that it was the point that I just stopped paying attention to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Except, the fact, that anyone who has been to training camp comes back saying how good Troup and Williams are. You do know that there several very good NTs in the NFL that aren't "space eaters", right? Part of the reason, in fact, possibly a great deal of the reason Troup and Williams are looking good is that they are playing against most likely the worst OL in the league, an OL with virtually no depth, so that playing the second-stringers is playing guys who probably wouldn't make a lot of rosters. Name three starting NTs, excepting Williams himself, who weigh 305. I'll spot you the first one, Dallas' Ratliff, who is in defensive genius Wade Phillips' defense and plays in a dome on artificial surface, which makes speed a lot more important. Two more, please... If Troup is as good as we hope, he will put on ten or twenty pounds of muscle over the next couple of years, learn the position and be a serious force around 2012. But seriously, don't expect much this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 2009 AFC East QB Ratings: Brady 96.2 371 565 65.7 35.3 4,398 7.8 274.9 TD:28 INT:13 Henne 75.2 274 451 60.8 32.2 2,878 6.4 205.6 TD:12 INT:14 Sanchez 63.0 274 451 60.8 32.2 2,878 6.4 205.6 TD:12 INT:14 Edwards 73.8 110 183 60.1 22.9 1,169 6.4 146.1 TD:6 INT:7 The Jets are going to win the Super Bowl, but the Bills are among the worst teams in the league because they didn't improve at QB. Whatever. Sanchez's stats during the regular season weren't very good, and the Jets barely got to 9 - 7 with a sensational defense and a great rnning game. Now look at his stats during the postseason where the Jets wreaked havoc: 60.3% completions. 7.9 YPA, a huge jump upward into Brady territory, 4 TDs to 2 INTs, another great improvement and a 92.7 QB ranking, another major leap upwards. Against three good teams, two of which were very good, including the Ravens defense. That's why people are expecting good things from the Jets this year. Sanchez improved greatly at the end of the year. Trent ... not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Part of the reason, in fact, possibly a great deal of the reason Troup and Williams are looking good is that they are playing against most likely the worst OL in the league, an OL with virtually no depth, so that playing the second-stringers is playing guys who probably wouldn't make a lot of rosters. Name three starting NTs, excepting Williams himself, who weigh 305. I'll spot you the first one, Dallas' Ratliff, who is in defensive genius Wade Phillips' defense and plays in a dome on artificial surface, which makes speed a lot more important. Two more, please... If Troup is as good as we hope, he will put on ten or twenty pounds of muscle over the next couple of years, learn the position and be a serious force around 2012. But seriously, don't expect much this year. Miami just shifted Randy Starks to the nose, who is around 300 lbs. Kelly Gregg has been between 310 and 320 in his career. Jason Ferguson was/is 310 lbs. Aubrayo Franklin is a 315 lbs NT. You don't have to be 330 lbs to be an effective NT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 "Edwards, Fitzpatrick and Brohm sounds more like a law firm that advertises on city benches and subway cars than an NFL quarterback depth chart. The fact that not one of Buffalo’s three quarterbacks has done a thing in their pro careers scares me. The fact that not one has done a thing to distinguish himself from the other two in training camp is downright horrifying." http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Worst-t...eason?GT1=39002 Trust Vegas my friends...trust Vegas. That Mecha was not built on being grossly wrong when it comes to stuff like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fingon Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Trust Vegas my friends...trust Vegas. That Mecha was not built on being grossly wrong when it comes to stuff like this... Sports betting in Vegas wasn't built on being right. Vegas was built on getting the right amount of people to bet on each side of the over/under. Its all based on psychology, not predictive ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Sports betting in Vegas wasn't built on being right. Vegas was built on getting the right amount of people to bet on each side of the over/under. Its all based on psychology, not predictive ability. I understand the model - but I believe that the average fan will be the over on this. In fact, from what I understand in Vegas, when teams are realy bad, the only betters ar ethe die hard optimist fans...and in this case, you know every die hard Bills fan will bet over.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookiemonster Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Over/under of 5.5 at this point sounds right to me. Maybe after I see them actually play for real instead of against each other in camp I will change my mind. But right now I would not feel confident enough to place a bet either way. Why not, you have gone on record stating that they will only win two games, sounds pretty confident to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chilly Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I might toss a few bucks on the over when I'm in Vegas next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Why not, you have gone on record stating that they will only win two games, sounds pretty confident to me. Hmmmm show me where. All I remember saying is this: I have a schedule on my office wall that I just went through and came up with 3 wins. I usually then add 1 for a game we shouldn't win but do. So that puts me at 4-12. But yes, even that is below 6. However we are still in camp, not even preseason games yet. So I would not put any significant money on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I understand the model - but I believe that the average fan will be the over on this. In fact, from what I understand in Vegas, when teams are realy bad, the only betters ar ethe die hard optimist fans...and in this case, you know every die hard Bills fan will bet over.... Then the O/U will change accordingly. I would bet now for the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 There is also a lot more to it than QB rating. Look at the rest of the numbers on that line.Sanchez threw twice as many TD's as Edwards .... and also twice as many INTs. It is easier to get a higher QB rating when all you do is throw short. But that does not necessarily translate into winning games. Not sure I understand your point. Sanchez played every game and Edwards did not. Well over twice as many attempts. Their yards per attempt and completion % were the same. How many games did Sanchez "win" anyway, as opposed to how many he "lost" just based on his play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLFan Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 There is also a lot more to it than QB rating. Look at the rest of the numbers on that line.Sanchez threw twice as many TD's as Edwards .... and also twice as many INTs. It is easier to get a higher QB rating when all you do is throw short. But that does not necessarily translate into winning games. I am not sure I understand your point. Sanchez played every game and Edwards did not. Well over twice as many attempts. Their yards per attempt and completion % are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I am not sure I understand your point. Sanchez played every game and Edwards did not. Well over twice as many attempts. Their yards per attempt and completion % are the same. My only point was that you cannot only look at QB rating. For example on 3rd at 15, a QB who throws a 5 yard pass may well end up with a higher QB rating than a QB that throws the 18 yard pass. But that does not mean the first QB will win more games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted August 12, 2010 Author Share Posted August 12, 2010 The guy who wrote the article didn't post the over/under---the books did that. The OP should change the title. Is our QB situation really the worst? The good news is that if our starter goes down--there's not a huge drop off in talent at #2! There are some scary backup situations in the NFL. Anyone see JT O'Sullivan in Cincy? Yikes! The list is long. Whatever.. The Vegas spread was part of the article and I felt it was newsworthy. I'll take your criticism under advisement... not. The writer does attest to outstanding RB'S & DB's. How can one make such an assessment if both have no chance at success, given the 'terrifying' players around them? How we managed to win as many games as we did the last couple years still confounds me, given how badly we played most of the time. This said, I do believe we're gonna play better football consistantly this year and this belief alone has me optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I put $100 on the over a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Sanchez's stats during the regular season weren't very good, and the Jets barely got to 9 - 7 with a sensational defense and a great rnning game. Now look at his stats during the postseason where the Jets wreaked havoc: 60.3% completions. 7.9 YPA, a huge jump upward into Brady territory, 4 TDs to 2 INTs, another great improvement and a 92.7 QB ranking, another major leap upwards. Against three good teams, two of which were very good, including the Ravens defense. That's why people are expecting good things from the Jets this year. Sanchez improved greatly at the end of the year. Trent ... not so much. Um, the Jets didn't play the Ravens in the playoffs. Check your facts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookiemonster Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Hmmmm show me where. All I remember saying is this: But yes, even that is below 6. However we are still in camp, not even preseason games yet. So I would not put any significant money on that. Just messin with you Code Monkey, this year is really a tough one to predict, probably the toughest in years, I belive that from a wins and losses standpoint, we could be all over the map. I wouldn't feel real confident betting money on the 5.5 over figure for wins, put if somebody put a gun to my head (you would like that wouldn't you?) I would have to go with the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 Just messin with you Code Monkey, this year is really a tough one to predict, probably the toughest in years,I belive that from a wins and losses standpoint, we could be all over the map. I wouldn't feel real confident betting money on the 5.5 over figure for wins, put if somebody put a gun to my head (you would like that wouldn't you?) I would have to go with the over. I am a non violent guy, so no If that gun were put to my head I would have to go with the under. But that could change as early as tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookiemonster Posted August 12, 2010 Share Posted August 12, 2010 I am a non violent guy, so no If that gun were put to my head I would have to go with the under. But that could change as early as tomorrow night Agreed! The gun to head refernce was an attempt at humor. Albeit a poor one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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