Popular Vote:
Kerry 50.5%
Bush 48%
Other 1.5%
Electoral Vote:
Bush wins 30 states
AL(9), AK(3), AR(6), AZ(10), GA(15), IA(7), IN(11), ID(4), KS(6), KY(8), LA(9), MO(11), MS(6), MT(3), NC(15), ND(3), NE(5), NM(5), NV(5), OK(7), SC(8), SD(3), TN(11), TX(34), UT(5), VA(13), WI(10), WV(5), WY(3)
Kerry wins 20 states and DC
CA(55), CO(9), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), FL(27), HI(4), IL(21), MA(12), MD(10), ME(4), MI(17), MN(10), NJ(15), NH(4), NY(31), OH(20), OR(7), PA(21), RI(4), VT(3), WA(11)
298-240 Kerry
I think there is a large number of first time voters that are underrepresented in the polls, with the majority of them voting for Kerry.