Cash
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ESPN...Teams targeting tired Bills D
Cash replied to Kemp2Warlick's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Umm... that's not how facts work. Until somebody proves otherwise using real numbers, I'm officially saying it's a FACT that I'm the world's greatest lover. Until somebody proves otherwise using real numbers, I'm officially saying it's a FACT that 3D movies are overrated. Until somebody proves otherwise using real numbers, I'm officially saying it's a FACT that the moon landing was faked. My real points are two: 1.) If you want something proved so badly, you do the work. What is this thing where your counterargument is "once you do my homework for me, I'll prove you wrong!"? If we wanted to be bossed around, we'd go back to our day jobs as butlers instead of putzing around on a message board. 2.) Even if someone had the time or inclination to do your homework for you, there's no point. The hypothetical time savings will be more than 30 seconds and less than 30 minutes. Whatever it is, you would probably look at it and think, "not a significant amount." Someone arguing to scrap the no-huddle would probably look at it and think, "very significant." I'm neutral on the whole no-huddle thing (my only stance is that the O & D are both bad and I would like them to improve; it's not my job to come up with how), but it's certainly plausible that the lack of rest is tiring out the D to a point where it affects their play. And so far, the run defense stats support that argument. It's also plausible that even a small amount of additional rest could pay off, because sometimes when your at the extremes, even very small marginal gains can have significant effects. And so far this year, our defense has certainly been at the extreme of lack of rest. Now, maybe with more rest, they'd still be just as bad; that's possible. But it's at least plausible that a little extra rest here and there would keep them fresher in the second half. -
Ogden did play G his rookie year, and was quite good!
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I guess that's why Northern was moved to defense!
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Official Prediction Thread: BALvsBUF
Cash replied to Buffalo Beeeews's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Torry Smith could get 1,000 yards just in this game. Ravens 38-24. Full disclosure: I am starting EJ in fantasy this week. I will either be really happy or really sad. -
I like it. Get Goodell on the phone and I'll pitch it to him.
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Great, then let's have the AFC play with an extra eligible receiver (4 OL) and the NFC stay the same. Whichever Super Bowl team had the better regular season record gets to decide which rule is in effect for the big game. Your idea seems like it would be a big hit with old-school baseball fans, which I am not. I respectfully pass. But I am enjoying the thread and appreciate the topic. Divisions bring additional fan attention. It is a fair argument to say they shouldn't, because why should I care more about playing the Jets because they're in our division? But the fact of the matter is, they do. Even if the divisional alignments were 100% arbitrary, just the nature of playing X teams twice every year vs. all the other teams 0-1 times per year will create rivalries and fan interest. I would be interested in seeing a reduction to maybe 3 divisions again, or even just 2 if possible. (Caveat: no, it's not possible in the real world, but I mean possible in a hypothetical world where the NFL was more open to change.) There weren't many times in the 3-division era when an inferior team got to host a playoff game by virtue of winning their crappy division, and not as many times when a superior team missed the playoffs in favor of a division winner. If we could go to 2 divisions, both of those possibilities would be very low. The problem with my idea is the scheduling. If we kept the league at 32 teams, we could do 4 total divisions of 8 teams each. Playing each divisional opponent twice puts us at 14 games, which only leaves 1 game each for cross-division and cross-conference foes. That's pretty weak, and mostly destroys any concept of a conference. If you play everyone in your division just once, that leaves us with 9 games left. Maybe 5 vs. the other division & 4 vs. a division in the other conference? Or 6 & 3? Or 5, 2, & 2? None of these sound great. Not impossible, though. For a return to 3 divisions per conference, we'd need to add teams, probably all the way up to 36 total teams. (Hmm, 2 in LA, 1 in San Antonio, and 1 in Ft. Worth just to piss off Jerry Jones.) That gives us 6 teams per division, and a whopping 10 divisional games if we keep the current 2x format. Not impossible, but I doubt we could get buy-in for having divisional games be over half the schedule. I guess it works well enough in college, so maybe? This scenario leaves 6 games for cross-division or cross-conference matchups. You could play 1 whole division I guess. Or 3 from one division in your conference and 3 from one division in the other conference. (Probably the top 3 teams play each other and the bottom 3 play each other.) Our other option would be to chop divisional games down to 5. This makes divisional tiebreakers easy, because someone will have won head-to-head (unless 2 division co-leaders wind up tying in their game). It also gives us 11 additional games, which isn't a very convenient number. So I say we chop 2 games off, go back to a 14 game schedule (this is very plausible), and play 3 games each against the other divisions in your conference and one rotating division in the other conference. Again, top 3 finishers from last year play each other, and same with bottom 3. This is a winning idea that is 100% impractical and impossible.
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Brooks has played outside some for the Bills, mostly in preseason. You are correct that he's definitely looked at as a slot guy. And in Week 1, when he was healthy, he played behind Nickell Robey in the slot. You can call Rogers whatever # CB you want, but here's the bottom line: If everyone was healthy, he wouldn't be on the field in the base defense. But if Gilmore got hurt, who comes in to replace him? Rogers. If everyone was healthy, then McKelvin got hurt, who comes in to replace him? Rogers. Rogers is our top backup at outside/boundary CB and the first guy off the bench if either Gilmore or McKelvin can't play. If that makes him a #4 corner because he wouldn't play in the nickel, or #5 because he wouldn't play in the dime either, fine. But he's second-string. Only takes 1 injury to get him on the field. Gilmore was the only CB who was hurt for most of week 1, and Rogers played 87 of 91 snaps. He's not some deep depth chart dude who was only pressed into action out of desperation. He is absolutely the coaching staff's Plan B. As to your question, probably no one. The problem is that if your Plan B sucks, you can't wait till week 3 to address it. You needed to address it in the offseason, when there were decent free agents and draft picks available, and you had time to teach new guys your system. Having said that, I still wouldn't mind seeing some kind of attempt to upgrade the position. It would at least show that the team was being proactive. New England's secondary got a lot better after they traded for Aqib Talib last year, and he didn't exactly know the system. I know that's the exception, and not easily repeatable, but at least it shows that in-season upgrades are possible. Besides, the current plan seems to be to weather the storm till Gilmore and McKelvin both get healthy, but what happens when one of them tweaks a hamstring in 5 weeks? Plan B is still to throw Rogers in there. That's not a great plan. And Plan A (neither starting CB misses any more time once they come back) is pretty unrealistic. Possible, but unrealistic.
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Nope. Rogers started in week 1, a healthy Brooks came off the bench: http://www.nfl.com/player/justinrogers/2508135/profile http://www.nfl.com/player/ronbrooks/2533332/profile Rogers played 87 of 91 defensive snaps in week 1. Brooks only played 10 defensive snaps before getting hurt. In the regular season, Rogers has always been ahead of Brooks at outside CB. He is our first guy off the bench if either starter gets hurt.
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Would anyone here have been upset or disagreed with Marrone if the Bills had decided to bench Rogers during or after his poor game Sunday? (Either pull him after any of the passes he gave up Sunday, or announce that he won't start next week, or say nothing, but line up Burton with the 1s at practice instead of Rogers.) My guess is no. I do tend to agree that signing a guy off the street probably won't help much, and almost definitely won't help in the short term, but I think I would like to see some repercussions to Rogers for his abysmal game. Don't cut him or anything, just sit him down to send a clear message that performance matters. We hear so much rhetoric about competition and every job on the roster being up for grabs, but if a guy can get toasted that bad and keep his job, is there really any competition? Lastly, a few observations on our CB situation: -The coaching staff seems to view outside CB and slot/nickel CB as different positions. -Stephon Gilmore is our #1 outside CB. Leodis McKelvin is our #2 outside CB. Both are starters. -Justin Rogers is our #3 outside CB, and 2nd-string. If either starter is hurt, Rogers steps into the starting lineup. -Nickell Robey is our #1 slot CB (he played nickel CB over Ron Brooks in week 1 when both were healthy), but will never play on the outside unless forced to via injury. He did play some outside last week, I believe. -Ron Brooks is our #2 slot CB (got injured playing dime DB, I think) and #4 outside CB. This is our 3rd-string outside CB -- it takes 2 injuries to get him in the lineup. -Brandon Burton is our #5 outside CB, and so far has been this coaching staff's answer to Tarvaris Jackson. I would like to see him take the field at some point, especially since we have THREE injured CBs right now. -Johnny Adams is also on the team. Overall, I can't imagine the coaching staff is happy with the depth at CB. I won't pretend that losing both of your top 2 corners is normal or expected, but a team should be able to lose 1 for at least part of a game without collapsing. McKelvin's injury last week didn't really affect us at all, because the Jets were going after Rogers on almost every throw. We don't need 2nd and 3rd stringers to necessarily be as good as the starters, but your top reserve at most positions needs to at least be a competent NFL player. Rogers was not a competent NFL player last week, and it showed. I know we have a ton of injuries at CB, but just throwing up your hands and saying we had no chance is oversimplifying things. If Gilmore and Brooks were both healthy, but McKelvin still got hurt, guess who's playing the rest of the game Sunday? Justin Rogers, that's who. It only takes 1 injury to get a terrible player on the field; that's a problem. If Rogers was in the "Brandon Burton" position and forced into action, I think at that point we throw up our hands and say that we had no chance due to injuries. But when the first guy off the bench is the one that cost us the game, then there needs to be some pressure on the team to get a better top reserve.
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If you had "3" in today's "number of posts to turn an unrelated thread into a Byrd-bashing thread" pool, you were right! You can claim your prize tomorrow at the downtown office!
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Good post!
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Had me going for a bit. Nice one!
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I don't know if any Bills fans were clamoring for Alonso pre-draft. To the OP's point, there were definitely a ton of Bills fans on the Glenn bandwagon (including me), and a significant number wanted Woods in the 2nd round.
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You don't like the feature where you've read a 5-page thread, which then gets merged with another 5-page thread, and now you sort through the whole thing to find where you left off? What a crybaby. Mods, this thread is discussing the Buffalo Bills, which are being discussed in several other threads on the board. Please merge or delete.
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Some teams can't wear throwbacks due to safety concerns
Cash replied to PromoTheRobot's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Interesting. One would think that, going forward, the team could just fit the players for both helmets at the start of the season? -
Disagree. Stevan Ridley was an absolute stud last year, and anyone paying attention knew it. The casual fan probably looked at Brady and NE's reputation as a passing team and figured they were more of the same last year. Us fantasy players, however, knew that NE's run game had taken a major step up from 2011.
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Thanks! Best of luck to the Panthers the rest of the way, especially against the rest of the AFC East!
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Giving up a 5-yard run is hardly something to brag about, unless it was 3rd and 10. Bottom line is that the Bills allowed 35 rushes for 158 yards (4.5 ypc, 7 rushing first downs). That's bad. Every team that's bad against the run whines about how they stopped the other team "except for one or two plays", but that's what being bad against the run is. No one gives up 4+ yards on 80% of the opposing rush attempts. For comparison, the Bills allowed 32 rushes by the Panthers for 125 yards (3.9 ypc, 9 rushing first downs). An improvement over week 1, but still bad. 3.9 ypc would be fine if the volume was much lower, but the volume was high because we couldn't consistently stop their run game. One thing I will readily concede is that the Bills' run D looks a LOT better this year than the past couple, especially via the eyeball test. Unfortunately, our historically-bad run defenses were so far down that it's possible to significantly improve, but only wind up like 25th in the league. Big Cat, we might not be far off here, since your whole original point was that the Bills' run D "was not that bad," which I guess means that you agree it was bad? We've seen a lot worse in recent years (and faced two pretty good rushing teams so far), and there's reason for hope, but I'm just not ready to anoint the run D as even mediocre until they prove it on the field.
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Undercover cops in opposing team gear - great idea
Cash replied to JÂy RÛßeÒ's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Bingo. The more exposure this gets, hopefully the more restraint people show when harassing opposing fans just for the sake of it. Of course, some people don't really think much when they're drunk, but there's plenty of people at the margins who could be affected by this kind of news. Guys, it's okay. Drunken mobs of 60,000+ people just need more freedom. No sense in policing them at all. -
ESPN's TQBR -- how do we feel about this?
Cash replied to eball's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Passer rating certainly has its problems, but it's at least based on objective data and it's easy to account for its biases. ESPN's metric is based on subjective judgments of biased people who have preconceived notions about the players they're judging. And since we don't know who those people are, what biases they have, or what sort of methodology they use, it's hard to know exactly what the problems are. As an example, ESPN's description talks about accounting for overthrows & underthrows. But how can they determine which throws are bad throws by the QB and which are bad routes run by the WR? Or, worse yet, just an example of the QB & WR reading the D differently. Without knowing the play call or the reads that each player is supposed to make, it's hard to make those subjective judgments. Of course, some stuff is obvious. If a pass hits the WR perfectly in stride, bounces off his hands, then intercepted, that shouldn't count against the QB the way most INTs do. But just because ESPN's metric is better than passer rating some of the time doesn't tell me that it's consistently better. -
No fumbles, but 15/35 for 214 yards (6.1 YPA), 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 4 sacks, and a 27.6 passer rating. I'll go ahead and give eball the Prognosticator Award for this game. Well done, sir.
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HC decisions - this best summed it up about Sunday
Cash replied to Uncle Monkeyhead's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
:lol: -
HC decisions - this best summed it up about Sunday
Cash replied to Uncle Monkeyhead's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I really think the problem was more "bad offense" than anything else. Obviously we were bad on 3rd downs, but a lot of those were 3rd and long, which came about because we were bad on 1st and 2nd down as well. Definitely agree with your last sentence... we pretty much need to be mistake-free to move the ball right now. If we want to be optimistic, we can think about how much different Seattle's O looked under Russell Wilson during the 1st and 2nd halves of last season. Actually, the evidence doesn't really say anything about fast vs. slow or huddle vs. no-huddle yet, because the Bills haven't huddled up or played slow. They might have been just as bad, but slower, if they'd huddled up last week. Then we would have seen about 25 minutes of possession instead of 22, but no extra yards. -
+1. Also good luck to the OP on a potential Stevie/Gore trade. Highway robbery if it goes through.
