Cash

1. Smith 2. Barkley, Manuel 3. Any except Mike Glennon

Great post. Kraft is a total douche. But for some reason, everyone in the media is so enamored with his two-tone shirts that they treat him with awe and reverence. Most prominent men would be skewered for making a huge deal of their wives' deaths, then shacking up with a woman half their age a couple months later. Not Kraft.

My guess is that if one of these QBs turns out to be the real deal at the pro level, his receivers will look a lot worse in hindsight. I.e., maybe Tavon Austin becomes another Roscoe Parrish and Steadman Bailey washes out of the league in 2 years and goes back to hanging with Oprah. Having said that, one of the reasons I don't like Bray is because I really believe in the WR talent he had, and I think his numbers should've been WAY better with those targets to throw to. At least Geno & Barkley put up sick numbers throwing to good WRs.

Empty words leave me cold. Not hating on Marrone -- it's a nice speech and all, and there's no games for him to win yet -- but I'm sick of speeches about how we're going to turn it around. I've heard enough of them with no results. Odds are that eventually someone will turn it around, (hopefully Marrone!) and when that happens, I'll be fired up. But I'm done with being fired up from empty words with nothing to back them up. And I mean NOTHING. Even if the Bills eventually dip back into free agency and sign some value/bargain players (who have been signing for several days now, by the way -- all the crazy deals were done by day 2 of free agency), there won't be anything to get excited about until the draft.

Bingo. Especially since there are a number of cosmetic differences between Nix and Whaley -- age/generation, skin color, accent/regional culture, and insider/outsider status. Nix was head scout for the Bills under Polian & Butler, and definitely counts as a "Ralph" hire, whereas Whaley not so much.

I hear the Bills are planning on playing their cap space at left guard.

I'm with you on the snowy thing -- there's rarely more than 1-2 snow games a year, especially since we never have home playoff games any more. But the wind is legit. I'd say at least half of Bills home games have significant wind that can cause problems for a QB. I don't know how much of the solution is pure arm strength (though obviously a stronger arm is always better). It seems like there's a lot of technique stuff that goes into it -- having a tight spiral, extra good timing w/ receivers, etc.

I heard he used to give swirlies to Welker on a regular basis, and that's why Welker left.

Dude, Geno is totally a pocket QB, more so than Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is pretty much the ideal/prototype QB at this point -- mobility/athleticism/scrambling ability is enough to be very dangerous, but his primary option is usually to destroy teams from the pocket with his elite arm & accuracy. Since becoming the starter (5 years), he's rushed between 54-64 times every year, for at least 200 yards every year, and over 250 four of the five years. He's had 7 runs of 20+ yards in that stretch. He could absolutely run the read option if Mike McCarthy wanted. Geno is a comparable athlete in terms of foot speed and arm strength, but obviously isn't nearly as good at this point of their careers. The comparison of running numbers isn't apples to apples, because in college, sacks count as runs for negative yardage, whereas in the NFL, they don't count as rushing attempts, and the yardage comes off the team's passing total, not the player/team's rushing total. But last year, Geno "ran" 66 times (47 actual runs, assuming the OP's figure of 19 sacks is correct) for 151 yards. The year before, he "ran" 56 times for -33 yards. Geno is pretty fast for a QB (nowhere near Vick or RG3 though), but he's not a scrambler. He's a pocket passer who is fast enough to get some yards when he tucks and runs.

Thank you. Not to mention that most or all of Jones' best games in the past 2 years were against the Pats, and he killed them last year. Nelson doesn't have any good performances fresh in anyone's mind.

You guys are right -- we should give the Bills' FO the benefit of the doubt based on their awesome track record and consistent history of winning. Obviously they have a plan in place and obviously it's a good one, because all the moves they've made to date have been part of a coherent & consistent plan, and have usually panned out. How many straight winning seasons have they produced again?

Shouldn't #14 say that Walker signed with the Titans, not the 49ers?

Not necessarily. The NFL typically won't give you a comp pick unless you have a net loss of free agents (players who were cut don't count). We probably won't lose anyone else besides Levitre, unless maybe someone signs McIntyre or Nelson. (Actually, I'm not even sure if Nelson would count, since we declined to tender him.) So if we sign even 2 UFAs who weren't cut by their former teams, we're ineligible for any comp picks, even if we signed those guys to low-end deals. And given that we have a new coaching staff who will want to bring in "their guys" -- especially on defense -- I think it's pretty likely that we sign 4-5 UFAs to low/mid money deals.

No, two random 20-year-olds did that. Deadspin posted the recording, which may or may not also be illegal.

Interesting, thanks for posting. Good offer for the Bills, and if Fitz thinks he can really start somewhere else, I see why he turned it down. Probably for the best all around.

Bummer.

I was under the impression that they could only split the cap hit if they cut him some time after the bonus was payed out -- like March 21 or something? Or maybe they only had to cut him after the start of the league year, in which case they can split it. Could a capologist weigh in? I don't think it's "nothing" to do with the cap hit, but given the choice between cap hit of: A.) $10.x million cap hit, Fitz on the roster, $3 million bonus check gone, and about $4 million in salary guaranteed if Fitz makes the opening day roster -- whether he starts or not, or B.) $10.x million cap hit, need to fill another QB spot on the roster, no financial commitments yet (B) is the clear winner. The only way for Fitz to stay on the team would have been to take a salary the Bills were comfortable paying a backup, and waive most of that $3mil bonus. Fitz wasn't willing to do that, so away he goes. I'll be interested to see where he lands and for how much.

Yeah, I liked Fitz a lot, and I thank him for all his contributions and wish him well. The guy always did his best and played his heart out, and he's a winner off the field. Unfortunately, there are very few individuals good enough to be winning starting QBs in the NFL, and Fitz isn't one of those few.

Certainly seems that way, and if there was any doubt, I imagine this seals it. A marketing guy like Russ "This is a New Era" Brandon can't be happen about this kind of public embarrassment. But the Bills have surprised me before.

Thanks! Well, yes and no. Certainly if I had a secretary, and he said that a colleague from a company we do business with was on the line, I'd answer. And if the call immediately disconnected, I'd either call back or ask the secretary to do so for me. But if, after calling back several times, I hadn't heard anyone pick up, nor had I gotten the voicemail of who I thought it was (which Nix specifically said at the top of the call), I think I'd be pretty suspicious, and maybe verify that I've got the right number. Probably would've e-mailed the colleague in question to verify the number as well.

Agreed. Bill Barnwell had essentially the same take in a pretty good piece the other day: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9039158/bill-barnwell-changes-nfl-free-agent-landscape

First off, apologies to the handful of fierce Nix defenders on this thread, but Nix looks like a buffoon. [EDIT: Not saying he IS a buffoon, just that that's going to be the popular perception, especially among non-Bills fans. Most of whom already think he is based on his Southern goober "not the smartest guy in the room" persona.] Anyone who gets pranked this easily comes across as very foolish, and Nix's age and demeanor add the element of making him look out of touch. Whatever. I don't particularly care, but it won't be fun dealing with the teasing at work once my co-workers hear about this. Maybe I can fly some of you guys out here to explain to them that this doesn't reflect negatively on Nix or the Bills, and that they should stop laughing? Secondly, I don't like these kind of pranks -- the Domino's prank that this is based off is incredibly mean and anyone who does it is a jerk -- but I'll admit that one of my greatest fan fantasies (aside from winning the Super Bowl) is to actually hear what the front office thinks in confidence. This isn't quite that, but it's pretty close, and WAY closer than anything I've heard before. So that's cool. And I'll agree with many others that from an embarrassment perspective, it could've been a lot worse. Lastly, there's one more silver lining: I'm actually enthused by a couple of Nix's comments. First, his Fitz comments are what most of us were hoping he was thinking. I know a certain poster has been harping on the idea that the Bills wouldn't and couldn't cut Fitz or else they'd lose all leverage with other free agent QBs and in the draft, but I never bought that idea, and it doesn't sound like Nix does, either. The other encouraging thing was Nix's comment on the 3-day discussion window. Specifically, "I tell ya, we're having trouble signing our own guys..." Given that McLovin signed like a day or two after this call took place, I'm guessing the Bills were already close to a deal when Nix said that. Which says to me that he's mostly talking about Levitre, which in turn says to me that the Bills really want him back and are making a real effort. That's good. My main fear with Levitre is that the Bills would pull a typical Bills move and let him walk without any real effort to retain him, then draft a replacement too high. If he really won't do what Stevie did last year (sign a fair but not exorbitant deal before free agency), and someone offers him a Poszluzny-type deal, then the Bills basically have to let him walk. But at least they made an effort.

I had literally never heard of this guy before seeing this thread. I'll admit, he seems to have a lively arm from the highlight video, but I wasn't super impressed overall. Plus his college numbers are atrocious when compared to guys who had NFL success. 8 TDs vs. 8 INTs is not what you want to see from a college senior. If they draft him in the 6th or 7th round, great. There's a solid 0.1% chance he becomes the next Brady. If, however, he's drafted in the 3rd round, and billed as the Bills' answer to Russell Wilson, we've got problems.

Ah, good one. And that was a fairly unique scenario, in that the ownership of the franchise had just changed hands, but the new owner allowed the old GM to hire a new coach. Usually new owners install their own GMs in place (at least when the team is bad, a la Jax), who then put their own HCs in place. Once Gene Smith was fired, it was no surprise that Mularkey was on his way afterwards.

Oh, I'm familiar with your study, and love it. But you and I have different definitions/criteria for something like "decent starter". My minimum standards don't meet any of your study's 3 criteria. And I make no promises that any of these QBs will succeed with their first team, which also fails your study's criteria. I did a similar study a few years ago with more inclusive criteria for "starter", and the results were roughly 50% of 1st rounders, 25% of 2nd rounders, 10% of 3rd rounders, and 0-5% for the other rounds, with the 6th round being an outlier. Although I'll admit that even at the time, I thought my criteria for being a starter were too inclusive, which is part of the reason I never updated it.