Cash

Good post! I'd like to add that another issue (or maybe part of #2) is that the Bills depressed his value by taking Spiller. It was a problem of their own making. If they knew they wanted Spiller, they should have looked to deal Lynch before the draft. (For reference, there were 2 RBs drafted after Spiller in the 1st and 4 in the 2nd that year -- good chance at least 1 of those 6 teams would've rather payed a 2nd or 3rd for Lynch, or at least what Seattle gave up.) On top of that, Nix struck me as a pretty bad negotiator as well. His tenure as GM is a pretty good argument against hiring a 70+ year old "rookie".

Wonderful post! Put a smile on my face.

While technically true that Fred's on pace for a career-best season, his 5-game start in 2013 is significantly behind his 5-game start in 2011 -- which would have been his career year if he hadn't gotten hurt. His numbers through 5 in 2011 (this year's in parentheses): Rushing yards: 480 (309) Yards per rush: 5.3 (4.75) Rushing touchdowns: 5 (4) Receiving yards: 232 (153) Yards per catch: 12.2 (8.4) Receiving touchdowns: 0 (0) Yards from scrimmage: 712 (462) Total touchdowns: 5 (4) Fumbles: 2 in 10 games, can't find game-by-game data (3) So Freddie is clearly not as good so far as he was in 2011. But he looks a lot better than he did last year, and it's great to see him making those shifty little runs and bursting through the line again. Love that guy.

The running game has been solid but unspectacular, and I think a lot of fans were counting on spectacular before the season. I do have some beef with the playcalling (way too many 1st-down runs, e.g.), but I don't think it's horrendous. Hopefully it will improve as our OC learns on the job. As for Spiller himself, he hasn't been nearly as good this season as he was last season, and it's not just the fault of the OC or Colin Brown's horrible play. Spiller himself acknowledged that he played poorly in week 1, and he's been banged up for the last couple weeks and mostly ineffective. Football Outsiders isn't the greatest, but I do find it useful to look at their ratings for the run game. They have the Bills' run offense ranked 14th in the NFL. In terms of RBs specifically, they rate Fred Jackson as having been the 3rd-most effective RB in the league so far this year, with Spiller down in the low 30s. That more or less agrees with the eyeball test for me -- Freddie has looked almost as good as he did 2 years ago, and Spiller hasn't been very good. In case anyone's curious, FO's O-line ratings are interesting when comparing this year's Bills to last year's. Last year they rated our O-line as 7th in the NFL for "first level" success, and 3rd/4th respectively for 2nd level/open field yardage, both of which are much more dependent on the RB than the O-line. They also had us at 8th best in terms of not getting stuffed, but only 26th in "power rank", converting short 3rd or 4th down runs only 57% of the time. This year's numbers: 20th in first level success, 18th/8th respectively for 2nd level/open field, which says that on a per-play basis, the line is worse than last year and so are the backs. They also have us getting stuffed more -- down to 15th in that ranking -- but doing better in "power" situations: Our success rate is up to 69%, which ranks 10th in the NFL.

My confidence was never super-high to begin with, and has dropped a bit, but I would still put it more towards medium than low. I've seen some good things and some bad things, pretty much across the board. I think my confidence level in the organization as a whole is lower than the coaching staff on its own. I think the roster-building is still very suspect, particularly with respect to depth/backups, and that's only partially the fault of the coaching staff. How much of it is their fault is a whole different post. In terms of game-planning, schemes, game-day management, player motivation, etc., I still feel like this youngish staff will have its ups and downs, but I'm willing to be patient for now. Regarding the QB thing, here's my take: The current explanation is a spin-job, but Marrone probably believes it in hindsight. (Usually people talk themselves into their own narrative rather than lie outright.) I think what happened is that when Kolb got hurt, they thought they could get by with Manuel. (Definite mistake in hindsight.) Maybe if TJax hadn't been picked up by the Seahawks they would've re-signed him at that point, but maybe not. Anyway, once Manuel got hurt, then they got desperate. Brought in Lewis & Leinart and gave them playbook cram sessions. Remember our timeline here -- L&L played in the 4th preseason game about 4 days after joining the team. As we all know, Leinart was garbage in that 4th preseason game, and Lewis showed some promise but was generally bad. The Bills didn't play Tuel at all because they wouldn't have been comfortable starting either new guy with so little practice time in any case. So Tuel had to be on the active roster because he was your week 1 starter if Manuel couldn't go. Remember that it was a bit of a surprise when Manuel was activated for that first game -- most people expected Tuel Time. I'm sure the Bills thought about keeping Lewis on the active roster, but ultimately decided that given Manuel's improving health, they could skate by with him on the practice squad. Given how many inactive players we had to start the year (Gilmore, Byrd, Legursky, Hopkins), it makes sense that they'd feel they couldn't afford to keep a 3rd QB. IMO, the 2 real mistakes they made were: 1.) Thinking EJ wouldn't get hurt. (Hope is not a plan -- what if he DOES get hurt?) 2.) Thinking that Tuel wasn't that bad. To their credit, once Tuel was forced into a real game, they quickly realized their mistake on #2, and tried the best possible option available -- sign Josh Freeman. Reading Marrone's comments with the benefit of hindsight, I think they definitely wanted to sign Freeman and have him start until EJ came back. They maybe hoped that White or Dixon would impress them enough to be a backup plan if Freeman turned them down, but didn't see much in either workout. Once Freeman went to the Vikings, they decided to go with Lewis. They may well have thought Lewis was a better QB than Tuel right from the start, but since he was acquired so close to the first game, they didn't have the option of playing Lewis over Tuel.

Interesting. I was never a fan of the signing, but Brown has been bad enough that we might as well see what Legursky has. It's a low bar to clear right now.

Well, Marrone did definitively say that they would be signing a QB "from outside the organization" before they struck out on Freeman. And they immediately brought in White and Dixon for workouts. So I don't think this is really an example of Marrone pushing that mantra so much as trying to sign an outside guy, missing out on the 1 decent option (Freeman), and deciding that the guy on your practice squad is more palatable than the other scrubs out there... ...and make no mistake, Pat White is a scrub. The only thing I can really fault the Bills for here is how the new plan is to sign a QB to the practice squad. We've already established that Tuel is not good enough to start or really to be the backup either. (I think he should be cut and signed to the practice squad if he clears waivers.) But whomever they sign to the PS probably won't be much better than Tuel -- anyone with much meaningful experience isn't PS-eligible. So how much benefit do you get from signing that guy? I'd rather them try to swing a cheap trade for a veteran backup (I know, easier said than done) or sign a veteran scrub like Dixon or even White, any of whom would likely be an upgrade over Tuel. Tebow? Ugh. For the first time ever, I wouldn't hate it if my team signed that guy. Shows how desperate I've become.

Pat White is a media-free version of Tebow -- neither can throw. I think I would rather have Tebow than White, but definitely don't want either. Freeman remains my first choice, but Dixon would be interesting. I thought he had some potential in limited action for the Steelers.

I for one am psyched to have Moorman back in the fold. I never like the way he was treated last year and thought it was BS. Let him have one last hurrah, riding off into the sunset in a blaze of punting during the Jeff Tuel Era. I could be wrong, but I think he'll be a little rejuvenated by this redemption shot, and I think he'll be solid the rest of the way. Hopefully he gets a chance to retire as a Buffalo Bill this time.

I called this, and it wasn't that hard. Marrone is a fairly conservative coach in many ways, including wanting his players to practice fully before playing. One of his quotes regarding this matter said as much: something along the lines of needing Byrd to have a full week of practice before he plays, and "maybe if it was a Sunday game..." I fully expect Byrd to play against Cincy, although I don't know if he'll start.

I'd be shocked if the Bills signed him. Very un-Bills move.

Agreed with the "no Graham" sentiment -- Leonhard is sure-handed and unlikely to muff or fumble, even if it's unlikely he'll get you much more than 10 yards. He actually had a few nice moves to avoid tacklers last week, but unfortunately couldn't quite get going quick enough to make anything out of it. On the one return, he broke 3 tackles but only got an extra 5 yards. If we're looking for a spark, the better option would be Nickell Robey, who actually showed some nice speed and PR instincts in preseason. He also showed a severe tendency to muff punts, so I don't expect to see him on the job when games count, and I'm fine with that.

Great post, as was the OP. I won't defend Josh Freeman, because he's been truly terrible this year and down the stretch last year, and does deserve to be benched based on that alone. (Although it is incredibly puzzling -- how could he have been so good a couple years ago, and even really good during the middle part of last year, then fall off a cliff like this? I don't get it.) But this really seems like a personal vendetta at this point, and all of the leaks coming out are complete bush league. Schiano is a disaster. Everyone who longs for a Parcells-style hardass coach should keep in mind that sometimes you get Tom Coughlin, but more often you get Schiano or Todd Haley -- a tyrant whose whole regime is a house of cards. The real shame is that they've got some talent on that team, and could turn it around with some better coaching (and a new QB at this point -- maybe Freeman can be salvaged somewhere else, but not there). Good D, potentially legendary secondary if Mark Barron plays to his potential, 2 good wideouts, a really good young RB in Doug Martin, some talent on the O-line... if they had the Freeman of a couple years ago, they'd be a playoff team. Do you have anything productive to contribute to this thread, or are you just here to B word at other posters? It's annoying enough trying to ignore their irrelevant posts without trying to ignore yours as well.

I believe he played through the injury last year in the hopes of securing a big-money long-term deal with the Bills (or another team). I also believe that this year he is unwilling to play through the same injury because he sees no incentive to do so. Again, just my supposition, but I believe that he no longer feels that the Bills have any loyalty towards him, and thus doesn't feel any loyalty to them. If it's true that Byrd doesn't want to play for the Bills anymore, then what purpose does franchising him again serve? Unless it's solely to trade his rights to another team, I don't see the point. Why pay >$8 million for a guy who you think dogged it or faked or embellished an injury? There's no reason to expect that a 2nd year on the franchise tag will produce a more loyal or motivated Byrd. There's also no reason to expect his contract demands to come down. And if it's about sending a message, how good a message does it send to the rest of the players on the team? "If you don't play by our rules, we will do everything we can to ruin your career." Sweet.

He was on the scout team during the "open to the media" portion of practice, but according to post-practice quotes, worked "some" with the real defense during practice. Based on Marrone's quotes, I'll be pretty surprised if he plays Thursday. I get the vibe that if it was a Sunday game and Byrd could have a full week of practice, Marrone would be a lot more comfortable playing him.

Williams played the game of his life. Definitely earned a ton of appreciation from me -- dude was a stud all game. Even the one time he got beat bad, he made a great touchdown-saving tackle, which wound up saving 4 points. Loved Dareus in this game as well. Unlike Williams, I've never been willing to give up on Dareus or write him off. I still think he's gonna be a stud.

WAY better game than last week for the coaching staff. Some very, very nice playcalling in the first half. Wish they could have kept up the great play in the 2nd half, but I'll take the win!

Why choose tonight to start this thread? Our crappy backups played pretty well today, I think. Go Bills!

So how do you think Manuel's helmet came off? Ejector seat? I was fine with the kneel-down strategy. I don't think running the ball would've gotten more than a yard or two, and I don't think any "safe" runs would have taken enough time off the clock to avoid a punt on 4th down. If you accept those premises, then kneeling down is the right move, because it greatly lowers the risk of a fumble or injury.

WOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is all.

A dissertation is 4 sentences now? Sign me up for that PhD program. If you'd bother to read beyond the joke portion, you'd have seen that I did address your larger point. At least, I think I did. It's hard to verify whether I addressed it or not when you declare that I didn't get it, but also don't say what it actually was. Just so I'm not guilty of the same, I'll re-state my real point #2: It's not that the people you're arguing with are right, it's that your specific argument against them doesn't hold water. I doubt it as well. Certainly during the Super Bowl years, our fast-paced offense put the D on the field a ton, and that was blamed at the time for a lot of the D's struggles. (Note that that offense executed very well and converted all kinds of 3rd downs, and still brutally lost the TOP battle almost every game.) But once we hired Wade Phillips and signed Ted Washington and Bryce Paup, the D was excellent. Still on the field more than the other defense, which helped inflate the yards allowed stats, but consistently getting stops. Maybe it would've been even better if the offense played slower? I don't know. I do know that the quality of players & coaching was the main reason for the improvement. I'm not going to call for the coaching staff to slow down the offense or scrap the no-huddle or anything, because that's their prerogative, especially in their first year on the job in what looks like a heavy rebuilding year. This year is all about figuring out what works and what we've got that's worth building on. (Still depressing when we lose, though.) I do think it's pretty likely, especially in light of the 2nd-half rushing numbers, that the D is getting worn down from being on the field so much. I don't really think that slowing down the O will have enough impact to change anything, but I'll admit that it's plausible. Mostly around the idea that taking more time at the line of scrimmage would give EJ a better chance to read the D and lead to more offensive success. I don't know if that would really happen, but again, it's plausible. I will say that I like the idea of a no-huddle/hurry-up attack, but I do have some beef with the specific one we seem to have implemented. For example, we never seem to vary our tempo. A good D can adjust to any tempo as long as it's always the same. I'd like to see a little more variation, especially in terms of how long we take between lining up and snapping. But also slow down the pace of getting to the line once in a while -- try to lull the D into making heavy substitutions. If you find a personnel mismatch (they're in the dime against your 2TE set, e.g.), THEN you step back on the gas and run hyper-quick plays to prevent the D from substituting. Of course, the second you commit a penalty, the D has plenty of time to substitute, so you need to play with a lot more discipline than the Bills have shown so far.

Is it too early to give Jeff Tuel a try? Yes. Should Freddy be the starting runningback? No, but he should get about 40% of the workload, which he is currently getting. Have you seen 30 for 30 on earn of Ricky Williams? No. Jerius Byrd carries himself the exact same way as the careless Ricky who walk away from the game! Not a question. Do we re sign Carrington for cheap now during the off season ? I think so. Probably a 1 year deal. Could we move woods to LG and find a center on the market? No. Good centers are usually harder to find than guards. How long has Rus Brandon been serving as president and CEO without the title? Since Ralph's health deteriorated. Is Marrone/Hackett the same as Gaily/Wanstad(spell check that) No. Marrone is much younger than Gailey and Hackett does not have a mustache.

Also a nice gain to Stevie if memory serves. I don't understand the last several Bills' OC's obsession with only throwing short stuff and deep sideline passes. You are allowed to throw between the hashmarks in the NFL, I'm pretty sure.

I think in one of the many Levitre threads during the offseason, a couple of posters made the argument that having a good O-line isn't necessarily about having star players, but about not having any scrubs. (I think it was part of a larger discussion about how best to put resources into the line -- maybe a draft thread discussing 1 of the 1st-round guards?) I think it's generally a pretty good sentiment -- the crux of the idea is that you don't get to decide where the D lines up, and they'll always attack your weakest link, so it doesn't really matter how good your LT is if someone else sucks. I think that's really coming home to roost. Brown has gone up against Vince Wilfork, Star Lotulelei, and a Muhammed Wilkerson/Sheldon Richardson combo in his first 3 weeks, and he'll be going up against Ngata and/or Arthur Jones this week. The opposing D-line really only needs 1 good player and a decent DC to be able to isolate our worst player against a guy he can't come close to handling. The Jets were frequently sending Glenn's man way wide in order to functionally turn Brown into a LT and give Wilkerson space to beat him on the outside. Other teams may follow suit, especially if they don't have a great DT to send at Brown.

Agreed. There are a number of issues exposed here. 1.) This is it, huh? They put 8 in the box and challenge our receivers, and all we've got is a fly pattern down the sidelines. Almost no variation, which would be fine if what we did worked all the time. Not so much when it failed miserably every time. 2.) Whether by design or preference, EJ is consistently ignoring underneath options and throwing the bomb. When this happens on 3rd and medium, this is very Gailey-esque and also Jauron-esque. I like those shots on 1st down, but I prefer lower-risk, lower-reward plays on 3rd down. 3.) Obviously EJ played bad on Sunday; we didn't need a breakdown to know that. But it does reinforce that not only was he inaccurate, he was throwing the ball way too early. That was mostly due to pressure, but we should expect teams to keep bringing pressure. And we should expect Colin Brown to continue to get toasted. So the Bills and EJ need to come up with a better plan, or at least some routes that call for quicker throws. EJ does not have time to wait for a WR to make a double-move before throwing. 4.) Our targeted WRs were not really beating their CB in the first place. Even good throws would've been anyone's ball in most cases. Part of this might be because of the too-early throws, but it's still cause for concern. We don't really have jump-ball type receivers, we have more the shifty guys. If they can't dust a CB with their speed or a move, they probably shouldn't be targeted on a fly route. 5.) Once Rex adjusted by dropping a guy into the short zone, there was NOTHING going on for us. At least on the earlier plays, we could've gotten some nice gains if EJ had gone to the underneath/crossing route. If he tried that on the later plays, it's interception time. (BTW, this is exactly what teams eventually did to Fitz/Gailey to destroy our offense. Many of Fitz's picks came b/c he didn't see the guy dropping into the short zone.) Once Rex made that adjustment, our only winning move was for protection to hold up well enough to give EJ time to throw the deep ball (unlikely), then for EJ to throw a good deep ball (unlikely), then WR to either beat his man or outfight his man for the ball (unlikely). We need some different plays to run against this look, which I guess was the point I made in #1. Since I have now completed the circle, I can end this post.