JuanGuzman

Week 1 9/9: Buffalo Bills at New York - L Week 2 9/16 Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - W Week 3 9/23: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns - W Week 4 9/30: New England Patriots* at Buffalo Bills - L Week 5 10/07: Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers - W Week 6 10/14: Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals - L Week 7 10/21: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills - W Week 8: BYE Week 9: 11/04 Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans - W Week 10: 11/11 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots* - L Week 11: 11/15 (Thurs) Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills - W Week 12: 11/25 Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts - W Week 13: 12/02 Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills - W Week 14: 12/09 St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills - L Week 15: 12/16 Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills - W Week 16: 12/23 Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins - W Week 17: 12/30 New York Jets at Buffalo Bills - L

nice twweet from Stevie Johnson:

+1: in particular I'm thinking about Eric Wood. When healthy I think he is pro-bowl center in this league. T

I think one advanced metric website had Drayton Florence rated as like the 100 best qualifying CB or something last year based on his performance. Basically his performance was below average for a starting CB, given his contract cutting him makes sense. I really though McKelvin showed us a little something last year, I thought he might of been our best/consistent CB all year. I know everyone is really high on A Williams but to be honest I didn't see anything from his rookie year that has me convinced he will be a top end CB talent in the league. I'm not saying he won't become a good corner, just stating that his rookie year was uninspiring....

I think he weighed 295 at the combine in 2006 so this is a non-story to me. Body weight for a normal person fluctuates by about 5 pounds in day, I imagine even greater daily fluctuation for someone Mario size.... The part of the story I like is the faster/stronger. Hopefully his torn pectoral muscle has healed... (Not that I should really consider faster/stronger to be news as every athlete in history says their in the best shape of their life prior to training camp) I remember D'qwell Jackson has 2 season ending injuries from a torn pectoral muscle. Finally I wonder if the Bills would consider using Mario as a goalline TE or fullback much like the ravens use their DT NGata or the patriots w/ vrabel.

I think it's a natural instinct to speculate, I think when talking about strictly men the suicide rate is 19.8 people per every 10,000 (about 0.2 per cent). I think NFL players probably still have a lower suicide rate then the general population however as a sample group there are different soicio-economic factors at play. It'd be interesting to see a comparison between suicide rates of NFL players and a sport that involves less frequent head trauma like say baseball.

Hope he signs - - Dream Team #2

Conflicted on this one.... he impressed me during his rookie campaign, he's not a complete QB but skill wise I think he is probably one of the top 45 QB's in this league and an upgrade over Thigpen. I think Chemistry is overated and because its very hard to judge becomes a catch-all explanation for why a team is struggling or having success, plus the problem can be solved rather quickly by just cutting VY if he acts out. My downside, is it that Andy Reid can get the most out any QB. Kevin Kolb played at a pro bowl level for Reid but he looked lost in Arizona, I just wonder why the eagles left him go. VY had a quote on leaving the iggles, "One of the biggest things there was I asked Andy, ‘could I be part of the team again?' He was like ‘I would love for you to stay here but you're not a backup quarterback' so when I heard the big guy, big red, say that it showed me more confidence and more respect that he had for me when he said he wanted to see me somewhere playing". When I read that I was like yeh that's B.S., If Reid thought he was a starter he would hold onto him. Teams just don't give away assets

sort of odd how this played he out, he was asked a question if he would ever bend the rules to gain a championship. He said (paraphrasing)"no cause in the end everything comes out and regardless if you gained any advantage, it gets stained (presumably by other peoples implications", I don't think Harbough was implying that he considered those championships to be stained or those championships to have asterisks.... I think he was talking about general perceptions. My bet is he'll issue a clarification saying he doesn't believe those championships were stained. Me personally, they cheated and they gained an advantage... there is uncertainty to the degree it impacted their ability to win games but I view all their championships as stained. I still remember the 2004 superbowl against the eagles -- every time Jim Johnson dialed up a blitz the patriots had a nice slip screen play called. At the time I attributed it to good game planning, but now I think its more likely they broke the rules to gain a unfair advantage.

Well file this one away in the wait and see category... we needed a WR and the guy has great speed - only time will tell if its the right pick. I recognize it's lame to complain the trade up -- especially if the guy turns out to be a stud, than its great that bills went out and got the guy they wanted, but it just seems weird given the teams who are ahead of us.... Washington happily traded back and Jacksonville added a lot of WR already (Evans, Robinson, and Blackmon) clearly the risk was that someone else would trade up to go after graham e.g. why Cleveland traded up to grab Trent Richardson. But even this was the case I doubt detective Nix could of divined this. Anyway I recognize the above paragraph is moot if T.J. Graham shows he can play.

I think the book on Burfict is character issues aside his tape is pretty underwhelming, while he will occasionally knife in and make a big play, a lot of time he looks lost out there w/ run fits and coverage. Too me he looked "fat" at the combine as well, if a guy can't get in shape w/ out a contract, how can you expect him to put in work when his paycheck is actually coming in. But yeh coming out of HS he was pretty much a 5 start recruit, the success rate of late round picks is pretty low so it's not like I'd be upset if we drafted this guy. But strictly based on his senior performance (forgetting character issues) I think he is someone who should be drafted in the later rounds.

I'll be madly searching twitter for some draft prospects brother-in-law, (ho is sitting in the green room updating twitter, (his klout score will go through the roof) that way I can find out who the pick was 0.5 milliseconds before the rest you suckers

Supposedly Umenyiora's agent has told teams that trading for him doesn't require them to renegotiate his contract, he just wants to see more snaps so he can get a big contract next year (source is PFT on this... not sure if they're accurate) So the bills could technically do this w/ out compromising ability to re-sign guys next year. But like I said in an earlier post I don't think the Bills should go after a hired gun. Maybe a year or two down the road when if they're ready to contend for a ship.

I think Umneyiora is a hell of player, with a lot left in the tank (and would be worth given a 3rd round pick for some teams e.g. NE, NOLA, Chicago, Philly) -- but I don't think he is the right for bills right now... I'd like the hire gun approach if we were closer to a championship, but right now I expect the Bills to compete for a playoff spot but I think even with Umenyiora there are too many questionmarks that would prevent the Bills from making the championship leap.

I had those exact same thoughts, but I also saw this from Greg Cossell'd Mock Draft:

Rick Gosselin with the Dallas Morning News is really accurate but he usually only puts on 1 version of a mock and its right before draft usually.

The one upside is that this could be a problem solved by a QB coach, not saying its likely but it could be solved. I watched a lot of Jaguars offensive drives last year (Had MJD on my fantasy squad) and I second almost everyone in saying that Gabbert was an embarrassment, any time a defender would get close him or even sometimes when protection held up he would just dive out of the way and not step into throws. At the same time he had good mobility outside of the pocket, and could stick the deep out if given a clean throwing lane. I'll be interested to see if he can get over his fear of contact.

Since Buddy Nix has ran the draft, the Bills Draft Picks have come disproportionately from Southern U.S. Schools. Out of 18 picks the last two years 15 players were chosen from southern schools compared to 3 from other regions. (Marcus Easely RD 4, Danny Batten Rd. 6, Kyle Calloway Rd. 7 are the exceptions). On one hand this isn't overly surprising, Southern Schools produce the most NFL prospects: The SEC consistently leads the way in total number of players drafted and number of players drafted in the first round and the ACC the wasn't too far behind last year led by southern schools such as North Carolina, Miami and Clemson. -- At the same point Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Pacific regions of the U.S. also produce a lot of NFL players. So what explains the Bills disproportionate reliance on southern school? I think it must be explained by one of the two factors below, 1) There is no explanation other than randomness: The Bills draft board is not biased towards any region(beyond normal weights based on what regional sample sizes each draft year) So the fact that most picks have come from the south, its just random. 2)The bills do favor drafting players from southern schools, either because: 1) they trust their southern contacts/scouts better, 2) they feel southern players are better able to produce at the NFL than counterparts from other regions. or some combination etc. I don't think I am going out on a limb here but IMO the Bills draft players from south not due to randomness but because they prefer southern players to draft picks from other regions. At the same point I notice that several people are projecting the Bills pick to be from a region outside the south e.g. Decastro, Reiff, M. FLoyd, J. Martin, Nick Perry, among others. That's not say people aren't also projecting players from the South e.g., any of the top CB's, upshaw, ingram, coples, cordy glenn among others. I just find it odd given Nix's recent history of drafting predominantly players from southern schools. So I am asking people will the #10 pick in the draft come from the south, or will it come from anywhere but the south (Northeast, Midwest, or the West)? I think just based on the history the pick is very likely to come from the South e.g. a South Atlantic or South Central U.S school.

I really agree with this take, outside of Willis and Bowman in San Francisco there just aren't that many every down LB's in the NFL. I'd rather we take someone who will play a higher percentage of snaps with the 10 pick e.g. O-lineman or DB or WR. Only way I would be for drafting LB at is if he was a player who had good enough coverage skills to be an every down player, or if the LB prospect had the elite ability to get after the QB e.g. Von Miller, or Aldon Smith who was an OLD/DE are both guys didn't play a very high percentage of snaps but because they Rush the QB they were very effective. The NFL is becoming a passing league and players values are increasingly being dictated by down and distance -- the every down LB has become a casualty as a result.

I don't think you want to churn the D-line too much, I liked Okoye coming out of the draft (boy was I wrong on that). But I think line play benefits from cohesion and familiarity.

Always like Garrard -- if is healthy he is better than a "replacement player level" but not sure if he is much more than that unless his mobility and ability to shrug off pocket pressure/arm tackles has returned. I thought they would target Tannehill in the draft given the relationship he has w/ Mike Sherman but maybe they don't think he will fall to them. I guess signing Garrard doesn't preclude taking Tannehil. Might as well see if what Matt Moore can give them this season and then address the QB position next year.

Does anyone have know so,e of the advanced statistics such as completion percentage allowed or QB rating against for the Bills DBs? I know these statistics taken out of context (e.g., did he have help over the the top, was a wide open pass dropped, did the completion come off of a scramble etc) can some times lead to misinterpreting the data but I'd be interested to see how our DB's performed. I have sympathy for both of the first two posts: 1) Florence was on the the wrong end of a lot of big plays, 2) but the DB's got little help from the pass rush. I don't think Drayton is a number 1 corner in this league, but not many players are. Depending on how the mustache wants to scheme, I think Florence can be an above average player based on his instincts, tackling and ability to play at the line of scrimmage... but I don't think you can leave him on a island.

I really liked bits of games and film that I watched from Kirpatrick, I'm not too worried about some of the combine numbers as players like Brandon Flowers and more recently Joe Haden have proven that tape demonstrating game speed should supersede a marginally slow 40 time. BUT This quote from teammate Dequan Menzie scares me a little: I'm all for money as a motivational tool, heck most of the general population's performance at work is at least partially tied monetary compensation. But when you hear it coming from a guy with character concerns (I recognize that the new rookie scale reduces the risk somewhat) it makes me question whether getting that one contract will satisfy Kirkpatrick to the point where his future work ethic, film study, contribution to locker room chemistry in the pros will be diminished because he got paid. .... that being said I maybe I am grasping at straws here, using money to motivate doesn't necessarily imply once he has money he will be no longer motivated. Plus if I were doing intense two-a-day training sessions that big signing bonus to first rounds picks would be a top of my mind as well. Personally, I want the Bills to draft the BPA (excluding RB because I believe the depth we have + financial commitment to current RB's, as well as injury concern) negates drafting a someone like Trent Richardson --even though I think he'll be a good-to-great NFL back. To me there is not one clear hole that needs to be fixed but I can see arguments for all of these positions: O-Line, D-line, WR, DB, and even QB if you think a guy like Tannehill is franchise QB. Kirpatrick certainly looks to me like he might be the BPA at 10, the Bills will need to do their due dilligence in the interview room though.

I find it really tough to evaluate the Bill's O-line. On one hand as a team we gave up the lowest amount of sacks in the league which is great. Bell graded well (in the games he was played) by some advanced metrics. On the other hand I feel the o-line benefited the use of a lot of 3 step drops(short pass plays), TE staying into block and the fact we were so effective running screen plays. But there were times this years when the bills were down and the opposing rush ends were pinning their ears back and it didn't seem like our Tackles including Bell, Hairston and Pears, could hold their blocks long enough.

I think this basically gets to the heart of it. Sign Schobel up and see if he can be effective at age 35, maybe his playing days are done, maybe he can find some success as a situational pass rusher or who knows maybe we hit the lottery and he comes back just as effective as he was during his last season. Only way to find this out is to get him in Camp...... that being said I wouldn't guarantee him any money, given that he took the Bills $2 million roster bonus in March of 2010 and then later in June announced he was thinking about retirement(if I remember correctly)