Koufax

I don't generally like future pick trades, because they give up the long term roster talent of the team. But this time I will take Watkins over Ebron and the #32 pick in the 2015 draft. It might hurt more if that pick slides back into the teens, but it isn't likely to sit too high. And while I was smart enough to get Kelvin Benjamin on my fantasy team, I don't think he is reasonably thought to be the pick at #9 and that is more like the giving up a 5th rounder for Tom Brady revisionism, and Mike Evans was off the board, so it is Ebron or Beckham plus a pick vs Watkins. I'm happy with the trade, and every time we win the value of the pick drops and we can get happier.

Please disregard ALL current tie breakers. They will change so heavily in the second half of the season that us winning them now is completely irrelevant, and we could very easily lose tie breakers to these exact same teams at 10-6. I don't think 9-7 has much of a shot, but I think our chances are really good at 10-6. Here are some of my takeaways as we hit the halfway mark and bye in good playoff position: 1) YEA COLTS AND BRONCOS Indy and Denver are going to be in, we can root for them to knock off all potential rivals 2) BOO CHARGERS! We lose head to head with San Diego. (Although if KC is tied as well they could knock SD out.) 3) BOO TEXANS! We also lose head to head with the Texans, so we want to root against them because there is no plausible divisional knock out. 4) CRAZY CENTRAL: We need to root for a division leader to emerge in the central and root against the other teams. We don't play any of those three teams (just Browns), and that is the most dangerous chance of us not making the playoffs at 10-6. To early to tell who, but all three have manageable schedules and a lot of head to heads. The more loses show up among those three, the better. We most likely have to beat the Fish and the Browns and the Chief's to get to 10-6, so don't really have to worry about those teams that much except on game day. Mostly we have to take care of our business, but hoping the Chargers, Texans, and the Central teams drop some games in the meantime is a little fun. Let's hope we can keep winning and keep this going until we clinch a spot in week 16 or 17.

Great line of scrimmage adjustment by Orton, great throw by Orton, and great hustle by Don Beebe or whoever that was during the showboat. Summers making all the fantasy owners of Bryce, Boobie, and Sammy feel silly, but Bills fans feel great.

EJ needs to turn into a player that he isn't right now. I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening. He shouldn't have played if it weren't for the Kolb injury last year, and his knee injury slowed his reps and learning as well. So sitting in the #2 slot right now could be a positive for him. But right now, his accuracy and his decision making are not of the caliber of good NFL QBs, and unless he improves on those skills in practice before he returns to the field, or on the field with game experience when he does return, he isn't a starting QB. Keeping my fingers crossed that he can figure out how to improve those two things, and grow as a player despite his benching. I'm not unhappy with the draft pick as #16 is not a lock pick, especially with QB, and I think we got the best QB on the board. I am not unhappy with the person who seems to be dedicated and a good team player. I am unhappy with the player and performance. So for now he sits and learns and Orton plays until something goes wrong, and we don't take a QB in the upcoming draft unless it is a sleeper pick. After this season and next we can figure out if we are back to drafting in the 2016 draft, or if EJ will have evolved into the QB we hope he will become.

He was 4-1 in Buffalo to start a season and beat the Patriots and had everybody feeling good. I love Fitz for who and what he is, but unfortunately that is not going to be a consistently good NFL QB. Rooting for him to have a 16 game hot streak before regressing to his talent level because I think that would be fun and he deserves it.

I think Orton shows more of a chance of getting the Bills to the playoffs than EJ, and I'm on the "Why Not?" train as well. But let's get our fourth win first, so we can start to get ready for our fifth win.

New England, KC, and Miami are all tough games, although KC at home coming off the bye helps. I'm hoping to see some progress from Orton as he settles in. Definitely some good signs and well ahead of where EJ is right now. Right now I just want to see us get our 4th win as soon as possible before worrying about wins 5 and beyond, and not look past New England. But hitting the bye at even 5-3 would be great, and set us up for that manageable four game November schedule before our more difficult December.

A very interesting article which highlights that it is too soon to cast aside EJ as a bust based on statistics. What alarms me is the actual in game decision making and accuracy leading to these numbers. These are two areas he needs to improve significantly to be effective. It isn't that he needs to have done more so far or that early struggles doom a player, it is that two of the biggest traits for successful quarterbacks, the things that make Montana and Brady and Brees and so many others special are completely lacking so far. These are two qualities that most of the biggest busts lacked. I can't speak to each of the guys in the list and how each one displayed these two qualities during their first 20 games and subsequently. Decision making can evolve, but I think it is easier to be too aggressive and rein things in than to start passive and add daring. I think EJ gets this and has indicated that it is a change he wants to make when he gets his next chance. I'm not sure he processes information quickly enough to be great at this from what I have seen, but I don't know enough about those progressions and EJ to really know, so I will be cautiously optimistic that he will blossom in this regard. Throwing Accuracy is a bigger concern for me. Here we are just talking about when he decides to throw a ball to a given receiver, how close he puts it to where he is trying to put it. Cutting out decision making, touch, leading a runner and other more mental choices in the throwing process, I just see too many balls that when he actually throws don't go where he wanted them to. This is a bigger danger he just has to fix. I'm hoping it is also a question of experience and aggressiveness, and that when he finds a more aggressive rhythm he will find some increased accuracy, rather than just being a pitcher who can't throw strikes.

I really hope EJ puts it together, blossoms from the #2 spot on the depth chart, and is ready for his second chance when it presents itself. He has lots of physical tools and seems like a nice and dedicated guy. That said, however, he has shown no where near enough decision making ability and accuracy to be good in the NFL, two of the most important traits for a QB. Those can each improve somewhat while playing, but he first needs to take some steps on each. We know we aren't taking a top QB in next year's draft, so he still has a 28 game window to battle people like Orton and whoever we might take in a lower round next year and prove his worth, and he will get a second chance at some point. Lots of QBs take some time to develop, so here's hoping we win a lot with Orton while EJ gets better at throwing accuracy and decision making.

Buffalo Bills, where if you aren't the best option at your position you don't get to play. This certainly isn't what I was hoping for out of EJ, but he has performed really poorly in our two losses and isn't ready to be a consistent winning QB yet. Orton clearly isn't the answer, but his three years as a starter all have completion %, yards per attempt, and interception rate that EJ has never yet reached. This makes us a better football team on Sunday. As for EJ, he has some improving to do, and right now he has to do it as the backup until Orton struggles or is hurt. His career isn't done, and he can continue to improve in practice and get ready for his next shot. Aaron Rodgers (in very different circumstances) spent three seasons doing that. Benching EJ for 1 to 12 games isn't going to ruin his development, but hopefully it helps him figure it out. Whatever we can do to get to 3-2 is what matters, and the defense and running game and receiver depth all are just waiting for some competent QB play to be a really good team. I'm very disappointed that we didn't get that from EJ yet, but I'm glad that action is being taken when it isn't too late and hopeful that Orton will give us a spark while we continue to develop EJ.

I would take Dareus at #3 again if we had that pick, based on the information at hand at the time. But boy there has been a lot of production out of the top 15 picks of the 2011 draft.

I don't see a repeat of RJ/Holcomb here, and don't think the coaching staff will bail on EJ unless sustained incompetence exceeds what is likely. I view any starts he misses as being injury related, and I don't have any real reason to expect his unfortunate knee injuries from last year to be predictive. That said, Dante Culpepper only played 16 games three times in his career, and being a big body Big Ben only twice in his career, so the big powerful somewhat mobile but not super agile model isn't the best to shatter Favre's games played record. I'm taking the under at 2, expecting them to be related to some minor nicks, and 14 games played when healthy.

Wait for final cuts. We have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, so there will be players better than our #3 without a job on Saturday, and I have to think Buffalo will get the top crack at any players with any ambition to get a chance at the position given how easy it would be to slide up to #2 on the depth chart behind a start with the jury out on performance and durability.

Who was the last rookie WR to put up 1300 yards? Sammy's production in 2014 matters a lot less than his development into a real superstar AND the team doing well in 2014. I think both of those things could realistically happen. Reckless seems a little bold and excessive, but it certainly has some risk and I don't love the move. We improve this year very clearly (got a player not available at #9 and gave up no additional 2014 picks) and got a guy who seems to have star potential and was not a reach at the pick where he was selected. I prefered Mack at #4, but don't follow it closely enough to think I'm right about that. The are several ways this turns out to be a bad deal: 1) if one of the players we were realistically targeting at #9 (Ebron, Beckham, Martin) proves to be a real star, and Watkins isn't better or enough better to justify paying to move up. 2) if one of the players we were might have realistically considered at #4 (Mack) proves to be significantly better in the NFL than Watkins. 3) 2014 goes horribly and instead of giving up the #18 or #23 pick to move up like we hope, we give up another top 10 pick. This is the one you mention. #1 seems to be one bbb's worry, but I don't see it. I liked players we could have had at #9, but am still bullish on Watkin's future. Anything can happen, but this isn't the real risk. #2 could go either way, and I like Mack, but I don't think your draft day expectations are for anybody available at #4 to be a clearly better football player over the next 5-8 years. So it all comes down to #3, what you expect of the 2014 season, what we expect of EJ, etc. If EJ were to prove to be a bust, we won't be drafting his replacement in 2015, but I think that would be a premature evaluation anyway and I am fine with that. But if 2014 is a disaster and that pick is worth a lot, we get caught having paid more than we thought at the time of the trade, and it will mean less total talent on our roster over the next five years than if we hadn't made the trade. If that pick is in the 20s, I think everyone will be happy with the trade (because of what picking in the 20s means), and if it is a top 10 pick, everybody will hate it because of what that means. In the teens is where there will be more room to evaluate and disagree.

If the Bills liked Watkins more than Mack, I don't have a big issue with them giving up the #18ish pick in the 2015 draft to move up and get him. That seems like reasonable value. If our year goes badly and our pick is a top 10 pick that proves to be a bad gamble. The biggest issue for me is the idea that this is a win now move. If this is a win now move, I just don't see how Watkins as a rookie WR can have more of an impact than Stevie + Mack. When Stevie is healthy and plays 16, it is reasonable to think of him as a 1000yd, 8TD, 13YPC receiver. Of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, nobody did better than that as a rookie, so it is suspect that in real production we can expect more from Watkins than Stevie in 2014. What this does is start a core of development with EJ that increases his chances of making it, and if he does means a serious combo for years to come. Having a young talent on the upswing to go with your QB and develop chemistry might be a lot more valuable than having a slow aging performer on the downswing, even if that player has the experience to produce better right now. If Sammy is as talented as the Bills think he is, and if we end up a #18 or #23 pick next year, it is a great pickup and deal for us even if he underperforms Stevie in 2014 at an individual level.

I don't hate the trade and I think the pick we gave up will be 18+ and not a "darn, we could have drafted Maybin" top 12 pick. BBut I think Watkins will have a tough time outperforming Stevie in 2014. Certainly over the next five combined he will, but rookie receivers have a limited impact and even Calvin Johnson didn't get up to Stevie's baseline. So for just 2014 I would rather have Mack and Stevie than just Watkins. Over the next five we will have to see, but Mack and some Stevie probably wins out, while Ebron, Stevie, and the #18 pick in 2015 might represent the most value. As long as we win enough games to make the 2015 pick not sting, and Watkins and EJ have a long successful run together, this might not be great value but won't be horrible. The three things that can go more wrong are for Watkins to not be elite, Mack to be as great as he might, or for the 2015 pick to end up higher than us optimists think. It is a gamble of a deal and one I think will give us less value in 2014 and less over the next five years than the other options I memtion, but not by enough of a probability/margin that it will really hurt the franchise.

I think Mack (and keeping Stevie) would have been the better choice with the picks they had. I think Ebron staying at #9 would have been fine if you wanted a pass catcher. I'm really excited about Watkins, but I don't think he steps in to be amazing this year (Calvin Johnson as a rookie under 800yds, Dez Bryant under 600yds), and by the time he gets his year 2 impact he will have cost that second 1st rounder we give up. I hope he blows expectations out of the water, and is a key to getting us to the playoffs this year, and build a core of talent for the future. But I have a hard time seeing him be enough better than Stevie over the first couple years to make up for a difference maker like Mack. The hope at the moment certainly is that an improved team means that the pick we give up is in the 20s. I think I like the trade up if it is in the 20s, can live with it if it is in the teens, and obviously hate it if it turns out to be a top 10 pick (meaning the impact of Watkins didn't lift our team, and also meaning additional value). I happen to think the best football player on the board when we picked at #4 was Mack, and am always for taking the better player, but Watkins is special and will make a difference over the next five years. It is just harder to have that immediate difference felt in year 1 as a WR compared to a LB, so not only a slightly inferior player, but one at a position that will have a harder time impacting the fate of the coming season.

I know the Bills wanted to make a bold move focused on winning now and an immediate 2014 bump. I'm still not sure that +Watkins and -Stevie was our best way of doing that when compared with: 1) Drafting Mack at #4 and keeping Stevie. I think I would rather have Stevie + Mack than Watkins + nobody in 2014. Maybe I'm not accounting for his decline, but he is still 27, is a 1000+ yard receiver when he plays 16, and rookie WR tend to struggle a little at first. Even Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant both failed to crack 800yds as rookies. So I am not quite sure why we would expect more out of 2014 Watkins than 2014 Stevie. And to add an impact pass rusher like Mack while having a stronger 2014 receiving corp seems like a smarter choice. 2) Draft Ebron #12 and keep Stevie and our 2015 pick. I've made my case of what I expect out of Stevie v Watkins above (I hope to be wrong now that the deal is done), but if Stevie is close to Watkins this year, we know Ebron would be a big added weapon over our current TEs, and we would keep a first rounder to keep the talent flowing into the system (even if I hope it will be the #32 pick). Ebron + Stevie + 2015 pick vs. Chandler + Watkins + no pick. Either way, I think we are selling a little low on Stevie, and disappointed to see him go. It reminds me a little of the Marshawn situation where we created a log jam with a high pick, and then solved that log jam with an undervalued move. Basically I'm a fan of drafting and keeping the most talent possible year after year, and I think we might have taken a step back there. I wish Stevie luck and a Super Bowl in San Fran, but don't see how removing him from our roster helps us get better in 2014 which was the goal of our bold moves. On the plus side, EJ/Woods/Watkins will be together for a while, and hopefully can form a really dynamic trio well into the future when Stevie is on the decline and no longer a play maker.

I will put Martin over Ebron in the Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo completely obvious and stated pre-draft dumb move category. We have to see how things go, but he isn't the best player available at #9, he isn't a position of need, and he isn't the offensive weapon that they want to get for EJ. However the first eight picks go, there will be somebody better, and I expect it is Ebron, but I'm definitely open to someone better sliding to us.

Not today's question or worry. Thoughts and prayers with Mr. Wilson and all of the great things he did for Buffalo. The rest will sort itself out another day and will be fine.

with this part. Luck, RGIII, Wilson, Newton, etc. I think there certainly are examples to the contrary, and I'm actually still bullish on EJ, especially considering he had injury trouble and limited prep, rather than just struggling. But I think recently rookie year struggles more often correlate to future failure than expected learning curve in a QB.

Who knows what we need most over the impactful first five years of his career. If he really doesn't fit the current system for some reason maybe you shy away, but if you use a top 10 pick on a less talented player based on the voids the other guys on the 53 man roster are creating, you will ensure yourself of an inferior 53 man roster year after year. On similarly ranked players sure, split some hairs using perceived immediate need, but when in doubt take the best football player (weighted according to positional importance so a 92 QB is much higher than a 99 Right Guard) to infuse your roster with the most talent as possible, and keep repeating that over the four or five years that each of those players is sure to be on your roster, and sooner or later you look up and your roster resembles Seattle's. I don't consider myself an expert evaluator of talent and don't know where Mack and Mosely rank. But I think anything other than some weighted version of BPA is shooting your team in the foot. I want really good talent evaluators to make the rankings, but I would just as soon have Warren Buffett define the philosophy and add as much to our talent portfolio. If a talent/BPA focused draft leaves short term holes, fill them with free agents.

I'm so happy to see the 90% hoping to win, and all the winning comments. Maybe our fan base at TSW has taken the same turn our defense has, and we hope our franchise does. Win every football game, and draft smart. I can't wait until we choose a good player with the #32 pick in the next few years.

So happy with this win and what it means for our 53-man roster next year. On to New England to smack somebody in the mouth. Go Bills

I'm so happy we won our 5th game, and I can't wait for us to win our 6th next Sunday. I want 7-9 right now, and don't care at all about draft position drop from 5 to 15 if we can pull it off. Drafting smart is what matters on draft day, and winning football games is what matters during the season. If you lose sight of either of those it is a tough hill to climb. It's okay for me to root for some of the other teams to win some games, but I with all my heart want this team to claw its way to 7-9 and finish on a three game winning streak. Beating N.E. on the road in a game that will be worth a bye to them is going to be really hard, but I still hope it happens. Right now we can do no worse than #17, and can go no higher than #2 before any tie breakers are thought about. Realistically we are going to be locked in the 5 to 15 range as the other games shake out, and probably even in a narrower area we are used to picking in (8 to 12), where the difference matters a lot less than wins on the field do. At 5-11 we pick 2nd to 11th At 6-10 we pick 3rd to 14th At 7-9 we pick 9th to 17th But most importantly, without some big upsets in the last couple weeks, there are going to be very few 5-11 and 6-10 teams, so our next win (Sunday against the Fish) is going to have very little impact on our draft position, and it is very unlikely we pick in the top six regardless of what happens the last few weeks. I don't think there is any reason at all to think about draft position and not wins as the most important and valuable thing to this team over these last two weeks. Go Bills!