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mannc

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Posts posted by mannc

  1. if Sully had actually thought about it in terms of managing a staff, would you utilize Rex's strengths better bonding with Richie in Hawaii who they really need to sign to a reasonable FA deal - and potentially bond with other FAs from other teams for now or in the future - or evaluating college players during practice? I know where I'd send him if I were Pegs.

    To me, the idea that the head coach shouId play little or no role in scouting potential draft picks is counterintuitive and I suspect most of those who say otherwise do so out of an anti-Sullivan reflex reaction. It would be interesting to know if most other HCs were kicking it in Hawaii (or some other beach resort) last week, or working with their teams' scouting departments in Alabama. Without that information, it's hard to know whether Rex deserves to be criticized for slacking off during a critical part of the offseason, or not.

  2. I come away with a different conclusion, that its not worth it for most teams. Only 10 teams averaged more than 1 point per two point conversion attempt.

     

    The Bills averaged .8 points per two point conversion, while Carp averaged .89 points per extra point attempt.

    I don't think that is sufficient data. I think you would need to look at 2-point conversion rates over at least three years to come up with a league-wide percentage. Individual teams don't attempt enough two-pointers to reach very meaningful conclusions. I'm guessing the Bills attempted less than 10 two-point conversions, which is a small sample size and not a very good indicator of what would have happened if they attempted, say, 30 two-pointers.

  3. The Bills' return game (both punts and KOs) was awful this year. It would make a lot of sense to draft a WR who can do one or both--as well as catch passes, of course. That's another reason I would love to see them draft Bralon Addison of Oregon. He is an excellent return man, especially on punts (3 PRs for touchdowns in last two seasons, and an average of around 13 per return), and a highly productive WR.

  4. League wide:

     

    Teams averaged 0.957 points per attempt when attempting 2 pt conversions.

     

    Teams averaged 0.942 points per attempt when attempting extra points.

    This is the critical data and should be enough to convince teams to at least consider going for two more regularly, if not all the time. And it seems possible that a team could improve its success rate by coming up with, and practicing, a well-conceived two-point conversion package. And of course teams with kickers like Carp would benefit even more. I'm not optimistic though; this is a "play-not-to-lose" league and most coaches would be afraid of the mindless criticism from fans and announcers if the scheme doesn't work once or twice.

    I'll just quote myself, because its the last post of the first page, and I think it's an important data point.

    Another data point I would like to see is the success rate when the two-point play is a run, instead of a pass. I believe the success rate is significantly higher with running plays. And you don't have to look only at this year. Two point conversions have been available from the same location for many years, so there is plenty more data available. I'm just too lazy to track it down.

  5. Don't you have to figure that the numbers would be altered for a team that regularly goes for two (and theoretically becomes better than average at doing so?)

    I would think so. I'm not sure, but I think the stats also show that running plays are far more successful than passes when going for 2, which should help a team like Buffalo.
  6. Watching NFL Live on ESPN. The topic of the Broncos being over matched vs the Panthers and possibly being the worst Super Bowl opponent ever came up. Jaws was quick to say that was an overreaction and that the Bills lost 4 Super Bowls in a row so clearly one or more of those teams would be it.

     

    First he took sides with Bon Jovi and now this. Any chance we can ban Jaws from Buffalo for life?

    what a moron. Denver is only a 4-point underdog right now. Hardly a mismatch, although I would definitely take the Panthers and give the points.
  7. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/

     

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/kicking/position/defense/seasontype/2

     

    The stats are somewhat limited as far as 2 pt conversions go (Pitt was 5 for 5 and other teams showed great success) but why not forget about extra points next year?? Is a 30 yd field goal for 1 point really all that important?? Yes, I know, the Pats lost the AFC Championship game because they missed an extra point. But we missed approx 15% of our extra points this past season. I'd be interested to see if we would have won 1 or 2 more games if we had attempted 3 or 4 two pt conversions with 50% success rate in a few games (Eagles, Jags, Giants??)

     

    Dan Carpenter may be a head case but he was clutch last year. I don't think we need to take up another roster spot With a kickoff specialist. Keep Carp for field goals and train Schultz to kick off like the kid in Indy (McAfee). In the off season, come up with 10 solid 2 pt conversion plays and forget about the extra points.

     

    Just my opinion.

    It's an idea that both deserves serious consideration and will never happen. The stats I have seen are that the 1point conversion rate this year was 95% and two point try rate for last 3 years is about 48%, so statistically it's close to a push, but this is a "play not to lose" league so don't expect any bold moves in this area by NFL head coaches.
  8.  

     

    I just mentioned this, vernon adams jr on the shoutbox. he played off the wall that game. anyone seen his other games? that would be a good draft pick for our current coaching system and the NFL QB dual threat evolution

    There are similarities between adams and TT but Adams is nowhere near the running threat TT is. He is shifty and elusive but not fast; not a guy you really want to design running plays for.
  9. I wanted Cam Newton, Von Miller, Marcel Dareus, Patrick Peterson, and AJ Green in that order. Absolutely loved the first three.

    About as good a top five as you will ever see. And don't forget AJ Watt, who went 11, and Muhamad, who went to the Jets near the end of the first round.
  10. After his performance yesterday, I am starting to wonder if Vernon Adams might deserve more serious consideration. I saw all of his games this year and he was unquestionably effective. I have wondered about his arm strength but he throws a very nice long ball. Reminds me a lot of TT, but without TT's straight line speed. Body might not hold up to NFL punishment. I would think he might merit a 5th round pick.

     

    BTW, I am surprised to hear that Adams is only 5'11". He appeared quite a bit taller to me. Are we sure that is right?

     

    Another thing to consider about Adams is that he improved steadily over the course of the season. He only enrolled at Oregon about two weeks before the opener so he had a very steep learning curve.

  11. After his performance yesterday, I am starting to wonder if Vernon Adams might deserve more serious consideration. I saw all of his games this year and he was unquestionably effective. I have wondered about his arm strength but he throws a very nice long ball. Reminds me a lot of TT, but without TT's straight line speed. Body might not hold up to NFL punishment.

  12. Would be gutsy . But two point conversion rate is only around 50% while extra point is still well over 90% even with the added distance this year? So it was still the right call by McCarthy.

    Wrong analysis. 1-point conversion puts you into OT, where you have at best 50% chance to win. A missed kick and game is over. So if success chance on 2-point conversion is 45% or better, then that is "playing the percentages" (assuming 90% success rate on the kick).

     

    Note: Actual percentages are 95% of extra point kicks made this year in the NFL and 48% success rate on 2-point conversions over past 3 years (Packers, 5 for 9 on two-pointers, and Crosby did not miss an extra point this year).

  13. Only thing that would have been better would have been the Pack going for 2 to win the game after the Hail Mary. Percentage-wise, it's probably the right call, especially with the new extra point rule, but none of the announcers even mentioned the possibility and I'm sure McCarthy never considered it. It's too bad. It would have been a gutsy, smart call.

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