colin

I'm gonna try to disagree off the top of my head Minni Baltimore KC Houston Rams (or they are close) Cards(same as rams) Bills (I struggle with this, but as of now I think it is true at least marginally) Seattle Green Bay Washington And like maybe Denver maybe Cincinnati or something Ok, so I'd prolly put them 9-14, so I don't think it's wildly off, but I'm sure they will rip a bunch of wins off before we face them

id give a second (we got 2) for adams if the raiders eat his cap. 9/30 is dog water

i like the angle on this, and i hope you are right! if it divides the team more, it for sure will lead to a breakdown. i just hope that breakdown is sooner than later

i think andy might just not be good tho

first round pick trade aside, worthy gives them blinding speed, and they use him to take advantage of that (not a lot, but a td is a td). we have two speed guys on O, cook and samuels (assuming his toe isn't a club at this point). what are we doing with them? cook has been quietly really good, but we don't seem to have a smart run game going on. samuels doesn't even run routes for us really, just lines up for filthy gadget mistakes and doomed screens. speed kills,we could use some, and we should use what we have.

this is bad for us on monday, teams always get a jolt after a big change like this. it's likely net net bad for the jets season, so i suppose good for the bills winning the division, but a blow out, a bumble loss, followed by a nice road come back win over a division opponent is exactly what our coaches (and team) need right now. high drama for next monday, so that's good!

if the d is daring you to pass deep, playing closed 1 safety deep stuff, and expect a pass on first down then it means they are not about to get ripped on screens and slower stuff. quick slants, pa stuff, etc is more likely to succeed, along with using the space the d gives you. it seems to me the screens and stuff we ran don't take advantage of this. like, we don't set up easy plays, and when we "break tendency" we do so in a way that doesn't really give us the best chance. the execution is so awful tho. like, the one screen where 3 blockers let one D guy get too cook, how does that happen? that literally never happens to us, every time we stop a screen someone is making a hero read and just bombing in.

he has obvious limitations, but how this team just cannot drive block out of 12 line ups and find space for easy quick hitter passes w two TEs is shocking. the chiefs pick up 2nd and 3rd with 4 or less with plays like that (and not just to travis) very regularly. nice easy plays. our O is supposed to be an EP concept, but way more often than not it's just about running out a bunch of guys and hoping allen buys time to find them.

i saw a breakdown of the game. in it they didn't really express who was wrong on that pass (just said it was off, which is clearly the bottom line), but they played it start to finish and in slow mo like 10 times. the more i see it, the more i think the ball was supposed to go where allen put it, outside. there was a lot of space toward the sideline, and i don't know if it was cover 1 or 2 to start, but the safety was inside. he wasn't close, but an inside throw might hang and give the safety a shot, the outside throw gave no one but hollins a shot. hollins also didn't drift inside at all, making me think even he knew it was supposed to go outside. he pulled up too much and didn't have his hands right (they were too extended in front of him before he spotted the ball) so he was off balance and lost control forward as his hands touched the ball. no one was near him and he got his hands on the ball, and it was not an over throw IMO because it wasn't flying past him as he slowed a bit. now that've seen it way more than i'd like to, he totally shoulda come down with the ball, and if he doesn't have clumsy giraffe legs he woulda walked for a TD.

Godspeed

The front office has a bit of an over bias toward balance and depth and risk aversion that leads to explosive failure the same way risky planning can sometimes. We play deep 2 high and take away the deep pass, but that sometimes fails as we saw bishop blow a coverage. That's fine, but we allow some big gainers on underneath stuff to fast players almost predictably. The fo loves depth and we drafted a 3rd RB (again). We also tend to get all around rbs, not pure speed or power guys (cook is the only RB this team has had with actual talent since MCD got here), clearly they want to avoid risk of not being able to do something in their scheme based on who is at RB. And we pay a te and then trade up to draft one. The issue with the above is we need to have some killer match ups and advantages. Drafting another wr this season would make sense, so we didn't. We got some more back up linemen for o and another day in Carter (he might be sick tho). Having to play 7 dl extended snaps every game but having Hamlin as a starting safety is just crazy. Our vet dt was out, Oliver was out, and miller was out vs Houston, but the garbage play at nickel and the raw safety playing along side #3 is what cost us on our two td drives on d. If you look at KC, they will not field a team that doesn't have high talent at OT, and it seems like they feel the same way about interior blocking. They draft depth guys too, but they dont overload and can just go out and sign a vet for 3rd when someone goes down. They also scheme and use what they have to give them the best chance to win. I saw some what looked like 22 and 13 formations vs KC, and they were able to run well (and stick with it, unlike us) and make short high % passes to move the sticks. The bills just have this insane gap between who they draft and sign and what they want to do as coaches. Hines, Samuel, Hollis, and us putting on Anderson regularly when we have Knox and kinkaid is mind numbing. We end up being super predictable based on personal and formation and then play our goofy schemes with guys who just can't get it done. Obv some killer talent at wr or safety or ol would help the team a ton, but the biggest ***** is the preventable issues of having your biggest fa wr signing being a limited use and obvious screen gadget guy while you trot a slow jag out to catch bombs on the outside. 3 deep at RB and zero deep at safety is also mind numbing. I really hope these goons figure out how to run this team with a quickness, but they seem to forget about motion and misdirection and tendencies way too fast.

Allen flat out sucked vs Houston. He was not great vs Baltimore either. The OC has to recognize what is and isn't working, and draw up plays that can work, also he has to get his QB right. Marino did his all 22 as well. 19 of 25 first downs were runs and the rate was higher when cook was in. First down is the easiest passing down. Mahomes is playing better than Allan, no question, but our brain trust is not giving their panicky QB any easy plays to get going nor are they winning any rock paper scissors games with formations and match ups. The OL is getting got because no one, not Allen not the OC and not the wrs or backs, are recognizing blitzes correctly. We've seen from mcds prior team melt downs that the coaches are in over their heads right now and they need a shake up. There is no way an OC with ability can't get Allen to better than 9/30. There are also 20 OCs who can be less predictable than 19/25 first down runs. Allen has to get out of his funk, our wrs have to play better, all of that, but the coaches can make lots of changes very easily to get ahead of the sticks. You battle w the army you brought, right now these coaches, offensively mainly, are out thinking themselves and are making it easy. They need to fix it now.

It is the whole front office tbh. Contracts and players not being used, no strong logic to how they are drafting and so on. The offense is so poor. Like, they have two, three of the rook is good, real rbs. They have two tes who can start in the NFL, they have poor wrs. But they don't have quick hitter plays to the backs and tes, runs and short passes are slow, etc. A chunk of that is on Josh being just slow to identify or simply always holding out for a bigger play, but the coaches can just practice and run plays to use the talent they have. Samuel is either not well enough to play, or being used in the worst way possible. The obvious first down runs, etc. If we are gonna do this crap to wrs in the passing game, how did we only draft one?

I care!

ya, the data on brady shows he is a trash nfl OC. it is crazy how our front office just won't go get a vet top flight coordinator. they insist on retreads and failed early career guys. reid in kc has a super vet ultra DC. if mcd wants his d run his way and gets yes men (which he does) then ok i can understand that, but why with the no track record guys?

that is worth consideration for sure. to me the simple bit is you accept the 10 second run off after the grounding call (mcd didn't, which is criminal, because he was banking on driving up the pitch for a fg to win it in regulation when he had zero TOs, they had all 3, and josh was 9 fo 27 to our trash heap wrs all day). you run the ball to start, make them burn tos, see if you get some yards. i think you do something that you should have drawn up for an emergency end of game first down, like a roll out w a fast option for josh. a roll out run play also takes more time and means the d might make a mistake. generally, you expect to run 3 times, getting like 7 yards, and they burn all 3 to's w the 10 second run off, they have very little time left, maybe 12 seconds max. but the few yards you picked up means you are punting from a normal formation, not a compressed one in the back of the end zone. you blast the ball w an angle, and remember their punt return game was horrible as woods was back there and is not fast nor their normal guy for that, and they get the ball on what, their own 40 at the best? w an angled kick you also have a shot at them running the clock some too. so now you have time for 1, at absolute best 2 plays. no TOs and they need like 15+ yards to have a hope at a FG even with their paul bunyon legged kicker. well, they can only go sideline, can't really run or scramble, that's good for us. they make the play fast, more likely to fall incomplete. then time expires or they do a hero spike to set up the fg. that's the best chance, that's what every reasonable coach would do, that's what i thought they would do, but in stead they banked on hollis to help josh break his slump from his own 3. in short, they butchered taht and it's awful

whynotboth.giff i have no idea how to embed it

he did have some more underneath stuff, guys who would catch and get tackled right away, in front of him, and he coulda run for yards more. im not saying it is fair, nor is it right, but josh is the goat of all time, in a tight game he's gotta make some plays. aside from the deep ball touch not being great, the real thing he can and has to improve is his pre snap reads. teams will pressure and show pressure on 3rd and long against us ever play given how easy it is to beat us with it. he and the coaches (who i legit think suck, i think dabo, dorsey, and brady all run trash and have been bailed out by josh) have to figure some stuff out. frankly, our O should be featuring cook as a runner and pass catcher, that will take the safety down and slow down the blitz, and allow the gang who can't shoot straight at wr and kinkiad to run free and get easy passes. we just suck as a drop back team right now, and it is so so easy for teams to force us into that.

true, but 9/30 for what a buck fifty? those jp losman numbers. he's playing awful.

facts, altho i think there are a lot of guys better than dabo. josh really does stink w the deep ball. its so obvious how to beat the bills, take away the middle of the field, force throws outside to wrs who won't get open, and just dare the deep stuff. how has our OC not tried to figure out ways to get out of this rut?

the ball wasn't so great, but the wr was leaning back and pulling up trying to find it too much. josh isn't good at the deep ball, but these wrs are trash

i was really hoping brown would ball out and keep improving, but he is trash vs any quality pass rush, and so is the guy next to him. i don't know if it's butt kissing, or hard working, or being a coach's pet, or whatever, but the bills LOOOOOOOOOOOVE to pay up up up for unwise contracts. the diggs extension was insane, for a 30 yo wr who isn't big or fast, knox extension was laughable, brown extension i think is fine, but maybe not, von contract and then extensions were malpractice, what we are getting out of oliver, samuel, and some other guys isn't great either. DQ jones is getting way too much for an old DT as well. we dump way too many resources into guys who are a little better than replacement because of some scheme/character fetish, but then don't have the resources to actually go and get a difference maker when they are out there. also, extending knox and then drafting kinkaid, when we barely like to use TEs, what is going on here?

Evergreen post.

we trade up to draft and sign TEs to huge extensions. we just refuse to feature then in our O or throw to them. similar to the hines stuff, we love having guys on the team at high expense who will not be used, so we can give burn to hollis and mvs and toohill.

im a marino fan. his podcast after the game was good -- he took the coaches to task and he was pretty credible. as a post mentioned above, i can't watch cover 1. i'll check out snippets of their film breakdowns, but my gosh they are allergic to being critical of the bills. one thing that is true this season -- josh allen is playing poorly overall, not good. had a couple highlight real games vs trash with zona and the jags, and was good vs miami, but was terrible vs baltimore and houston. he threw 4 passes that coulda/shoulda been picked in those two games too, he just got lucky with them. if josh is as good as i keep saying he is, he can find a way to elevate guys around him, show leadership, and get some victory. he did that vs zona, so i'm not saying he's shot or anything, but the houston game might be the worst passing offense by an offensive starter in 3 years.