colin

I love the pma. I'll admit it, the team looks depleted and overly hyped up/pressing to me

One player on this team is an nfl lb, and he's hurt

that was an awesome game for bills fans, and a great clip Yolo. i gotta say, after watching it a couple of times, GOSH did we have some just dog awful players on that squad.

the way the nfl is going, between scheme, talent, coaching, and the refs, there is a balance of power change. if you go back to how the nfl was from like the late 80s to say 2010 or so, it was harder to pass and score. it also seemed like aside from QB, the two positions that only a very few people in the nfl could play at a high level, doing everything the position was sort of counted on to do on a regular basis, was corner back and OT. there just aren't that many people on the planet w the talent and skill and mentality to play those positions. well, fast forward to today, it seems like either there are enough talented guys playing ol, or more likely it's a mix of that and the rules/enforcement. but on D, it seems like not only CB is a super impossible position, but LB and S as well. safeties have to come down and tackle the ball carrier, and LBs are required to blitz, cover, and get off block and pick the correct gap and make good tackles. it's a rock paper scissors league, so i suspect we will see someone innovate something on D to impact Os and then you'll prolly see the o adjust again. just like how the west coast O beat the old NFL ds, which the zone blitz murdered, etc.

so josh allen shows the limits of nerd analytics in football. it works well in baseball because you have so many IID trials, and such a huge data set you can get meaningful information even on situational stuff. in football, every play can have so many variables that the numbers generated are not fungible and thus one has to perform a deeper analysis using qualitative data. in that regard, the eye test can very easily beat out a hundred tabs of data. the point made about josh being a late bloomer in this thread is a good one. there have been lots of interesting things written about how early bloomers get a big advantage in terms of coaching and competition in American sports. the best example of stat dorkery vs eye test and gut feel for things like leadership and other inflatables might be between the two joshes. rosen had a great pedigree, but some bad attitude red flags. Allen was no one from no where, but everyone who met him saw him as having a good football temperament. rosen had polish and great stats vs pac 12 opponents, allen was up and down like a yo yo and didn't consistently dominate much lesser competition. at the end of it tho, rosen is a petite weak clownshoe of a man with a slender effete neck and the face of a whiny quitter, while allen is man child dynamo with a wide eyed optimism and a contagious spirit. sometimes the eye test really is what counts and stats really are for losers. the PFF and internet snark football dweebs have egg on their face. you love to see it!

so reading this thread, you'd think they don't pay coaches or other players besides qbs in the nfl. its pretty obvious jackson has limitations as a passer, but the ravens also don't have the outside weapons they'd need for him to be passing the ball all over the place. one point that was made before is what will the ravens look like if lemar is eating 40mm of cap. i think that's a big one, because right now they have just nasty nasty talent up and down the d, and their OL and TE corps is silly good. i think the nfl just can't play good D at the moment because of a lack of beyond the above, gregg roman kinda reminds me of kevin gilbride. sick results every team he coached on, but then got chased out of town when it fell apart. gilbride righted the ship w the NYG and won two chips. it remains to be seen if roman/harby can fix this the way coughlin and gillbride did, but both OCs run a very unorthodox all in kind of O (but very different from each other) neither of which has much flexibility in it if things don't line up. one thing i don't think roman has ever had is a real game breaking WR to open up the field, i think the antonio brown speculation in this thread was pretty right on, adding a talent like that might be enough for the ravens to keep the d honest and just play advantage all the time. eitherway, i hope the bills right the ship on D and smoke both these teams.

Just like how mahomes is super charged by the andy ried O, jackson is the bullet in the Roman gun for baltimore. he's got some obvious limitations as a passer, which is why he fell so far in the draft given his college resume. he reminds me of a less talented mike vick,(easy to say given how ridiculous vick was) but he gives a crap so he has a much better chance to develop as a qb. but the most important thing in all of this to me is the roman system. it uses blocking and misdirection and quick hitting power plays to just beat down and overwhelm the D, also w harby as HC they are super aggressive and basically try to play advantage football, getting great match up, being in good down and distance, and getting first downs on 4th and short which just demoralizes the opponents and makes their O press vs a pretty sick baltimore d (well, sick except for this year as the whole nfl just isn't ready to play d yet it seems). roman never had his teams set up to score quickly at the end of a half, to manufacture points quickly and flip momentum. his teams do well getting a lead and just laying it on and strangling the opponent. given the trends in the nfl, the way it looks like penalties are called or not called (offensive holding most of all) and the fact that there is lots of tape on jackson and that baltimore O, it seems like if you can win the rock paper scissors match up early and figure out what they want to do on O early and get them in a hole, they are just not dynamic enough to come back.

part of it is holding not getting called, part of it is the d is rusty and out of shape (see that all over the nfl), but part of it is poor play. im starting to agree w the people who said edmunds isn't a MLB. maybe ship him to strong side and get a real MLB, cuz i dont want to give up on his talent level.

What is an about average starting WLB who plays 3 downs and is like 26 worth? I figure it's about 7MM or 8MM a year. Milano is above average as a pass rusher, i think about average as a run defender (but our D has guys making more difficult plays in space or crashing down, so maybe you notch him a bit higher) and way above average as a pass defender. I'd say that puts him at like 11-13MM. Where you run into big numbers is when you get to the value positions, as was mentioned above (although it was to downplay Milano's value, which I disagree with). A QB who can line up and start, not a good one, just one who can, is about 18-20MM. An LT who isn't raw hot garbage in pass pro is like 9 or 10MM. A borderline starting CB over the age of 30 is like 6MM, a decent starter is like 10MM. I think Milano is still getting better and 11-13 wouldn't be a problem.

alpha, i almost always love your football takes, but you gotta have better message board fu than this. haven't you noticed OPs schtick? he's frankly outstanding.

ill take him with a quickness, but chances are dallas isn't letting him go. i want an FA pass rusher, Passing weapon, and maybe maybe RT. the rest is just for fodder/rotation guys and then we get all else in the draft. our passing offense stinks (except on 3rd and long where it's strangely good) and we aren't going to get a new starting QB, looks like we aren't getting a new OC, and we might add a lineman or two, but not a huge change there. what we lack and what will make the biggest impact is weapons, and if we overpay for cooper that's fine because we have room. rams overpaid for watkins, and so did KC. both of them went to a superbowl while those contracts were an impact. it's not the end of the world if he's not quite up to billing, but even if he isn't it will super charge our O

i'd say kicker/punter RB Corner Safety MLB/WR in that order

if we get digs and clowney (or some such), and maybe a RT (draft or FA) and add some youth in the draft (including RB2 but i think that's on the easier side) then we are walking out of this offseason better at QB (cuz he's growin up!) at WR 1-3 (cuz diggs is 1, brown is 2, and beez is 3) better at TE (growth), and better at OL and RB than last year, along w an equal or better D. That's just putting a super charger on a well running V8, and will push us forward in a big way.

im all in on this if it is possible. 2nd for diggs and some new money hitting the cap this year (i assume that would be required to get it all done). diggs, brown, beez, and someone with size (FA TE, FA WR, drafted WR i don't care) and instead of being match up beggars we are match up dictators. also -- sherlock holmes is more advanced than it seems like many give him credit for. i think if he talked about lunch pail and hard hat, or motor, it would be a bit too obvious. cracks me up!

it seems like beane was sticking his nose around clowney and OBJ, and obviously A brown, so i think we are gonna be in the running for the top flight talent this off season.

why did he beef w RWs daughter? i honestly think if he was handed the keys to the team and stayed we would have had a couple chips.

i trust the front office to not sign a guy to big money who sucks, so given that caveat, i'm totally on board w cooper. he may not be the best, and he may end up costing like the best, but i figure he's as good or better than watkins, and having watkins as the 3rd guy basically just won KC the super bowl. draft a guy, sign cooper, olsen (i'm off hooper now that olsen is there), and go pay clowney (or whoever, but i think he fits us like a glove cuz he does the dirty work and mauls people) and draft RB2 and OT as well and we are looking at a monster team. could even extend big play tre and put a lot of that cap space left over to use so we have more room later.

his numbers on 3rd and long vs 3rd down in general and his numbers in play action really don't help change my perception that our OC is just hitting buttons on madden rather than building a cohesive offense. i really hope that changes w some new talent next season.

meh, goes against the grain but if the front office think this guy is like saquon or something then you draft him in the early 20s. the whole thing w rbs is that running isn't as big as it once was, and the relative value of one back vs another is lower. i'd not be bothered by this if we got WR and DE in free agency

i mean runs routes almost too hard/fast, runs full speed with the ball, physical beyond his size. just an intense high pressure style of player.

i've hated lots of players at different times. i was in toronto when flutie was on the bills, and the over the top fan love for him just was too much for me. imagine if pats fans were fans of your team for some reason, imagine the pain! i think flutie hit a wall pretty hard a little bit through the season and just trailed off and sucked, and he was and is a world class jerk. people like him because he's a runt, he's a gifted jerk athlete but short, it doesn't make him any more relate-able or likable to me. even tho bledsoe was half checked out of football when we got him, and old and slow, he showed that a competent qb with the weapons we had could just light it up. reed, moulds, price, reimersma, and our RBs were better than any set of weapons we've had since. imagine adding a moulds and price to our team today! honorable mention: mike williams jp losman marcel karlos williams (because he coulda been such a weapon for us) and a few others

ya, that's the rub/joke. going empty back field gives you zero advantage pre snap, can't fool anyone. it's just going all in on your pass scheme, which maybe works when they can't sub or you have very little clock, but with unlimited time in OT, and with your RB lighting it up and your WRs dropping balls, it just makes me crazy.

and we shall rescue Billsstantinople from the Caliph of no identity or consistency!

i really want hooper and cooper

i was implying that formation/personal group might be a good thing to pass into if the d is fooled that you are going to run. i was kinda going for a "for some reason, they knew we weren't going to run it!!" but frankly got mad remember how much i dislike dabol. i also kinda assume josh panicked because he lost the plot in the game for a lil while and had a crazed look in his eyes (and i say that as a huge JA17 homer). i don't get where so many people just like hand wave that dabol is good or does good things when he's never had any good results. He's just been around good teams in a lesser role, but when he's been OC in the NFL he's sucked. Good CV with bad results, he's the Pete Buttigeg of offensive football ya, i think some of our team has that in a good way, but dabol just isn't good. IM CRUSADING I CAN'T HELP IT