Dr. Who

Deep draft at WR means you are getting real value at #28. If you wait till #60, that benefit is significantly diminished. It's a terrible draft at DE. The few that are truly worth a first will be long gone. (I'm not sold on Chop Robinson.) One should not conclude from that that making a rush to grab a mediocre player on DL is justified. What the loss of the third means is that the 2nd rounder is not going to be WR, unless they end up trading back from #28.

I think you forgot the part of the formula where Buffalo automatically gets dropped a round.

I don't think it will happen, but I like him a lot. I wouldn't mind McConkey, and Rice in the fourth. Rice may go earlier. Wilson is a fraud, forget about him. They need a big X. Coleman is a possibility, but I'd rather take him in the second, which only happens in a trade back or a defensive player in the first. My bet is Legette or Mitchell at #28 is the most likely result.

It's not just the top player at a particular position, but the positional value. And if it's a deep draft at WR, the 7th or 8th receiver may be the 3rd or 4th best in an ordinary draft. Regardless, WR, Edge, LT, CB are the expensive positions you spend a first rounder on, and QB, of course, if you lack a franchise QB. Look at all the quality veteran safeties available in free agency. It's not a position it makes sense to spend a first rounder on.

Yes, it was a speculative dream for those of us who wanted 2 early WR picks, but it's effectively gone. I think Legette is the most rational target, at this point. I do think if Thomas falls far enough, Beane would make a move.

I was responding to the fella who said comp picks have slim to none chance of contributing. Naturally, a 4th round comp can make a difference, but what folks are unhappy about is losing the 3rd round comp, and in those terms, the individual that was dismissive of them was essentially saying it's no big deal, because comp picks in general don't matter. Anyway, if you find that humorous, have at it. Seems to me the loss of a day 2 pick, even at the end of the third round, makes it harder for Beane to maneuver. The real blow is that folks were led to believe the formula was sufficiently understood, and that the 3rd was a safe assumption.

A 3rd round comp pick is not negligible. Sure as hell isn't slim to none.

It's the home game in London experiment part 2.

34. T'Vondre SweatDT Texas 60. Xavier LegetteWR South Carolina 94. Cole BishopS Utah 104. Maason SmithDT LSU 125. Tanor BortoliniOC Wisconsin 129. Brenden RiceWR USC 132. Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS Texas Tech 159. Garret GreenfieldOT South Dakota State 162. Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss 198. Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville 202. Dylan McMahonOG NC State 206. Jha'Quan JacksonWR Tulane

I think Legette and McConkey may both go in the first, unfortunately. I expect the Bills to favor the big X, which is why I posed the scenario in the way that I did. I know Worthy is fast as the wind, but I still think he's just too light. I dropped Franklin after his disastrous Combine, and it turning out he's smaller than advertised. I like Pearsall, but as BillsFanForever19 pointed out, he's a slot. I would go for Coleman if he dropped to the second. And Walker, too, really. Rice, a bit later, for me. Anyway, I love McConkey, but I'm skeptical that is the way Beane is prioritizing the position, though I'm only guessing, of course.

Personally, I'd rather take Legette at 28, and trade up from 60 to grab McConkey, but I think Ladd may go in the first.

Troll bots are the worst.

I sort of figured it was a bot with terrible grammar.

Why would you hate that? Legette is the one almost sure to be there at #28.

Kept trading back and adding picks. 37. Ladd McConkey WR Georgia 74. Javon Bullard S Georgia 81. DeWayne Carter DT Duke 100. Maason Smith DT LSU 106. Mike Sainristil CB Michigan 110. Braelon Allen RB Wisconsin 111. Jonah Elliss EDGE Utah 122. Brenden Rice WR USC 129. Beaux Limmer OC Arkansas 159. Kitan Oladapo S Oregon State 198. Cornelius Johnson WR Michigan 206. Nathan Thomas OT Louisiana

The trade buys a draft pick. I also think it means they like Anderson as a potential C.

He's not just a slot. He could become the new Diggs. He has that skill set, imo. You still need to add a big X.

I get the logic, which you have extensively outlined several times now. This is likely correct, and plausible, but the more you repeat it, the more I find myself hoping they select him. Even though I think they need to get a big X at #28 . . .

I understand. It's an atavistic remnant from the days when you got 2 points for a win, and if it was tied, each team split the point. So folks that hearken back to the purity and simplicity of the math in those days often don't think of the OT winner as getting the "winner's point," because OT wins used to be reserved for the post-season, where the loser would get nothing. Hence, the extra point for a team that actually loses is a "loser's point." It is perhaps a semantic nicety. Given the convention of the 3 point rules, all that you indicate is correct. Nonetheless, somehow it introduces an element that seems to me sophistical, and a sign of decadence.

Ahh, that's too long a discussion, but certainly, that's part of it.

I think he just doesn't like the loser point idea. I don't like it, either. I really liked it when a game that ended in a tie was a tie, but I guess that just means I'm old.

I think he's counting the Overtime losses as losses, which they are, even if you get a loser point.

Such a great sport, and such a badly run league.

If you're trading out of the first, you're either hoping KC goes offensive tackle or conceding the next WR to them without the Chiefs even having to trade up. I doubt Beane will risk it, unless there are multiple players he has about equal on the board at #28.

Virtually no chance. He's probably too far out of reach for a trade up as well. Mitchell in a small trade up, or Legette is where I would place my money if I was a betting fella.