dave mcbride

Can this thread be eliminated?

Josh McCown, who leads the NFL in fumbles with 9, has almost exactly the same stats as Taylor (although his team, which has better defensive talent than the Bills, has a losing record). He has a 93.7 rating and Taylor has a 91.4 rating. He has the same sack rate, but again, he leads the league in fumbles.

So there's no continuity in team management this century? Call me crazy, but I see it. Christ, this season alone is a freaking replay of four other seasons this century.

That could be the case, but I also think it's become painfully evident how bad the front-seven talent on this team is. It's really bad.

If you're committed to drafting a qb early, don't settle for the "best guy" at that slot. That's what gets you JP Losman and Paxton Lynch. Do what the big boys (Philly, Rams) do and trade up. I can almost guarantee you that the best couple of guys will be measurably better than the next two.

Cousins is a good player and he's someone to watch closely. But at the end of the day he is going to have a ton of suitors, and my bet is that he ends up back in Washington anyway. He's going to cost $25 million-plus a year too.

Front four players who can get to the QB are VERY expensive. Bear in mind that the Carolina D at its peak in 2013 was getting double digit sacks out of the LDE (Hardy) and RDE (Charles Johnson) positions. They were an overwhelming force that year. For a five-year stretch, Charles Johnson averaged 10.5 sacks/season at the RDE spot in Carolina. Look at what McDermott has now in that position. Plus look at what a player like Luke Kuechly does in comparison to Preston Brown. Night and day.

Every other Bills administration the last 30 years has acted in the same way, pretty much. Plus the guy they hired has more than a passing resemblance to another guy they hired nigh on about a decade ago - a former DB and longtime DC that went to an elite school and wants character guys who care a lot to populate his team. I'm not necessarily down on McDermott, but I've seen his type before. That other coach thought he had a gem with a Bill Walsh-endorsed mid-round pick who ran a pro offense in college too. We shall see. It's not impossible for Peterman to be the next Romo, but it's less than a 50/50 proposition. It'll be interesting to see how he performs and what his limitations are. They exist.

If they aren't panicking a little about the talent level on this defense, they're doing something wrong. Panic isn't always a bad response. The issue has to be addressed. As for "long term," this league is the not-for-long league. If they're 4-12 next season, I wouldn't bet a ton of money on them being back for season 3, and if they have a losing record in season 3, they will be gone as sure as the sun rises in the morning.

Actually, he was a 10 times better player in the late 1990s than he was in the mid-1980s. He genuinely blossomed and learned how to play in the CFL.

The simplest explanation is that the Bills will act like the Bills. Hence Occam's Razor. My assumption is that the Bills are the Bills and will act like the Bills typically act. Doesn't get any simpler than that. From the OED: "The principle that in explaining anything no more assumptions should be made than are necessary. Cf. law of parsimony n. at sense 3." You're missing my point. Taylor isn't even in this discussion. He's gone.

Irrespective of whether the qb switch is the right move or not, I'm gonna throw this idea out there: the switch is a function of panic about defense and in a sense a hail mary throw with regard to the future of the qb position. Here's my thinking: McDermott and Beane have decided that Taylor, who is probably more likely to lead them to 9-7 than Peterman, is not the answer and not the future qb of the Bills. They need to find out what Peterman is, but not just for the reason everyone thinks. I susepect they always anticipated packaging picks and moving up to get a qb, but times have changed. That is, they may well be having serious second thoughts about that strategy right now. Why? They are presiding over a defense that is functionally devoid of talent on the front seven -- and I mean almost *completely* devoid of talent. Jerry Hughes is the only mid-level starting caliber player in the entire group (don't kid yourself about Lawson or Lorax), and it basically requires a massive overhaul. They need to spend high draft picks to fix this huge problem (late round prayers won't cut it), and spending a couple of firsts and a second in order to move up for a qb (which is usually the best strategy given the centrality of the qb position) won't let them do that. McDermott is a defensive coach at the end of the day, and overseeing this pathetic crew--which can't sack anyone and (post-Dareus) can't stop the run--has to be galling. Starting Peterman, who actually looks like a pro-style qb in his limited garbage time efforts (last week and preseason), represents something of a hail mary on their part. They're likely hoping that over the next few games he can show that he's potentially another Tony Romo or Kirk Cousins -- a guy who can evolve into a franchise qb in a relatively short period of time. Both of those guys have put up numbers regardless of who they were throwing to. That frees them up to draft defense throughout on the first couple of days of the draft. Whether this happens or not, I don't know. However, if you apply Occam's Razor to the situation, it is the most Bills-y approach (ignoring qb early in the draft and praying for the best with marginal talent) -- and history tells us that it therefore has a decent likelihood of happening.

The bills would be crazy to not package picks and move up for a qb no matter what. Peterman is a limited player and is not the answer. Good teams know what it takes to win: get a stud qb. You can't expect to luck into one.

No, he sucked -- and he sucked the way he usually sucked: by functioning as a sack machine. 6 sacks and a safety taken.

My recollection of that "benching" of Kelly is that there were other non-football related factors behind it (and which also were affecting his performance). That was a big topic of discussion back in the day. Jimbo's personal history isn't a clean one, and he has freely admitted that.

It looks like he will. If they lose, the season is pretty much definitely over. The best they'll do is 8-8 because they're going to be blown out by KC and NE twice.

yup. Dreadful.

You're not really going to argue that Flutie didn't have a good game despite a couple of mistakes, right? Are you also going to argue that Johnson was good against TN?

I don't care what Dennison's pedigree is; he doesn't call a good game. I also suspect that he has more than little of Curtis Modkins (central/mountain zone edition) in him. Those weren't his offenses in Houston and Denver.

The thing is, in clear running situations he was in there (most plays are passing situations!). Teams adjust game plans accordingly when they know they have to face a guy like him who is extremely difficult to move even with two blockers on him. NO linemen were moving the Bills DTs with ease in one-on-one situations on clear running downs. The percentage of plays really isn't an indicator.

I suggest quitting while you're behind. Kirby ain't always right, but he is better informed about the game than just about anyone here.

The Jets defense was great in 2015 - a LOT better than it is now. 9th in points allowed, 4th in yards, and 5th overall in defensive DVOA. They are 19th in DVOA this season. The difference? The absence of Watkins/Hogan/Woods.

The team was terrible that night. Taylor's only really bad game was the NO game. He didn't perform very well against Cincy (although Cincy's very good front 7 had him under siege all game), but every mid-tier qb has off days, and that was a truly garden variety off-peak performance. I'm opposed to this move for a couple of reasons even though I know that Taylor will never be better than the 14th or so best qb in the league in any given season: I like the guy (he's a gamer and is no BS), the whole thing smacks of dishonesty / desperation, and I fear we're about to witness the 17th coming of Tom Savage/Brian Hoyer/etc. - pro-style qbs with modest athletic skills who can effectively run what the OC wants them to run. We shall see.

Um ... Taylor didn't play badly against the Jets.

The thing is, Taylor has done well against that same Jets defense in the past with a better receiving corps. He oversaw two nice victories in 2015 and had 30 passes for 297 (9.9 ypa) yards in a 37-31 loss in early 2016.