dave mcbride

Seems like an obviously terrible decision from my perch. The fetishization of draft pick hording seems to be the driver — Beane can't quite get over the fourth tound comp designation for Edmunds and was hellbent on getting a third round pick. But jeez, don’t trade with KC. Hope I’m wrong.

I actually get your point. But the fact that he paints his fingernails will have zero impact on his performance, I believe.🙂

That draft was long before and things can change. He had a season to go through and presumably felt that he had to show he still “had it.”

Who cares? One of my good friends paints his fingernails and he’s an awesome human being.

I would say that last year, he was under pressure to score on every drive because SC‘s defense was historically bad — as in 123rd out of 131 teams bad. So every drive became an act of desperation. The bigger question is the hiring of lincoln riley, who got a bajillion dollars to go there. But I’m ok with that because i am no fan of SC.

Simon: I am a UCLA grad (grad school, but I can’t help but be a fan), so I have seen a fair bit. He is really good, and also everyone has the occasional bad game. I mean, he is a CONSENSUS #1 pick. So it’s not just me.

Well, Russ is probably headed for the HOF based on 9 or so great seasons. But he’s in the nfc, so not my problem!

Nfl network

He is really, really good. I expect him to succeed.

Wow, he sounds as false as Russ!!

Fair. But the trajectory looks very promising. Regardless, I hope you agree that he was clearly the best receiver on the field in the KC playoff game. If Chris Jones doesn’t bull Dion into Josh, he gets the potentially game winning TD on a great route.

100 percent. This is a great post because I remember that and I know the Bills loved Roethlisberger. Shakir, I think we can all agree, is now good. He was the best receiver on the field in the Bills-KC game for both teams.

Thank you -- Shakir indeed looks terrific.

Well, we're gonna find out tonight, most likely. 52 catches for 673 yards on an offense that also featured Tyreek Hill and Kelce, both of whom put up huge numbers. He was actually pretty good that year although he unsurprisingly missed 2+ games due to his hamstring. I'm not gonna say he wasn't a disappointment overall, but when healthy early on he was electrifying. Turns out had some personal issues too, obviously ...

Well, since you asked, in the 2019 postseason, he had 302 total yards in three playoff games and caught a bomb on KC's game winning drive (by beating Richard Sherman badly) that put the Chiefs in the red zone. He had 5 catches for 98 yards in the SB.

He traded for Diggs and got multiple all-pro seasons out of him! Gabe Davis had excellent production for a fourth (just look at fourth round receivers from the last decade and compare).

Not really my point. A much, much better comp given the small distances involved in moving up is the Bills using Carolina intel in 2017 to jump to 63, just ahead of Carolina at 64, by trading 75, 149, and 156 to Atlanta. With that 63d pick, they nabbed Dion Dawkins. There are of course other examples. Kincaid, for instance.

Me too.

John Butler was a good GM and personnel evaluator both in Buffalo and SD. But he had a very bad 2000 draft, highlighted by terrible players in the first and second round. The Bills needed defensive help going into that draft, and the strong word beforehand was that the Bills absolutely loved Ahmad Plummer (CB, Ohio State) and Mike Brown (S, Nebraska). They also liked Deon Grant (S, Tennessee). Plummer went 24th overall and the Bills took Erik Flowers two picks later, at 26. Even though they had drafted Antoine Winfield in the first in 1999, Thomas Smith was gone after the 1999 season and they had no one else, really, beyond Winfield and Kenny Irvin (Punt Catcher Chris Watson was their third CB). In the second, they were desperate for a safety but stayed put and drafted a fifth round-caliber player at the 58th slot (because he's all who was left), Travares Tillman (S, Georgia Tech). They watched Mike Brown go at #39 overall and Grant at #57 overall, just before they picked Tillman (a desperation move, and Butler more or less admitted as much afterward). Plummer had four very good seasons for SF but washed out after that because of injury, which was just bad luck. He was on a very good career trajectory and at least gave SF four good years, starting at CB right off the bat. Mike Brown played 10 seasons and was a two-time all pro for Chicago (although he had a bunch of injuries in his latter years). When healthy, he was elite. Deon Grant, despite missing his rookie season with an ACL tear, played for 11 more after that and started in over 160 games with 30 total INTs. The topper? His final game was the February 2012 SB vs NE, in which he started and had six tackles for a Giants defense that held an elite offense to only 17 points. Nice way to go out. If the Bills had sold some assets (either 2000 or 2001 draft capital) to move up 23 and 56 (Minnesota had both 55 and 56 that year, so was presumably open to a slight trade-down to 58), that draft would have looked a whole lot different in retrospect. Maybe jumping ahead of Chicago for Mike Brown was undoable, but their later picks suggest to me that the capital would have been well spent on moving up (Corey Moore, Avion Black, Sammy Morris, Leif Larson, Drew Haddad, and Dashon Polk were the remaining picks). The thing is, Butler really did believe in those players they missed out on. Maybe Butler wasn't as aggressive as he should have been given that he was on his way out, but I doubt that -- he still wanted to field a winning team in 2000 (and to be fair, that team started out very well before injuries hit). In any event, the front office had the right instincts for the players they really wanted early on. I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up. Anyway, food for thought.

Byron Murphy, maybe?

Dawson Knox is a pretty mediocre receiver, though. You lose a lot when you're putting him on the field instead of a WR, particularly in playoff games that turn into shootouts when the opposing qb is Burrow or Mahomes. I think @BADOLBILZ is referring specifically to playoff football here, which is where the Bills fall apart offensively.

To be fair, if Rome Udonze gets past 10 (unlikely, in my view, but we'll see), I would have no problem using our 2025 first to move up and get him. He's going to be great, I think.

I'd save that 2025 second if possible because next year looks to be a GREAT edge draft, and they'll need one -- and presumably ammo to move up given that they have Josh freaking Allen as their qb. But I'm not averse to trading it either for the right deal.

Good plan. If the Commanders are desperate, though, I'd drive a little harder of a bargain: I'd offer 28, 144, and 160 for 36 and 67. Moving up 8 is substantial. I'd then trade 67 and, say, 128 to move to the 50s and get the second receiver that we should be drafting. We can take Cole Bishop or D-line at 60 (depending on our plan for Justin Simmons); CB/LB at 133 and 163 (CB depth scares me; sequence depends on who is available); and developmental o-line/d-line in the sixth and 7th.

We have an extra second next year that I think we should use to move up in the second to get that second boundary receiver assuming we go Worthy at 28. Coleman, Baker ... both can fit that role and for all the worries about Coleman's speed, it's probably OK when you're running him other alongside blazers like Worthy (4.21) and Curtis Samuel (4.31). Plus Shakir has excellent quicks. Interesting thing about Samuel: he has not played with a good QB since the first half of the 2018 season (Cam Newton got hurt mid-season that year and was never the same). He's played with trash ever since.