dave mcbride

This play really annoyed me. On the previous play, Knox had that really bad drop, and Allen threw it to him again right away the next play because, you know, gotta pick your guy up and let him know that you believe in him. Noble thoughts, I guess, but he was locked in on Knox to a fault and missed this easy first down pass to Brown. Knox was blanketed on the play.

There is some good stuff here about the increase in trades this season: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/10/21/rams-trade-jalen-ramsey-fmia-nfl-peter-king/ The Rams are not alone in bulking up on trades. Cleveland, Baltimore, Oakland, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (!) are dipping their toes in the pool more than they used to, or more than their predecessors. This could be an outlier season regarding trades, but I doubt it. With eight days to go before the trading deadline, see how times have changed in 10 years: 2009: 39 trades in the calendar year, involving 50 players. Seven traded players were Pro Bowlers at least once. 2019: 54 trades (with eight days left in the period), involving 69 players. Thirteen have been to at least one Pro Bowl. That’s a snapshot, not a long-term study. But it just feels like trading has picked up, and though the Rams may be at the head of the pack, they’re not alone. One GM told me over the weekend when I relayed those trading stats: “I bet that numbers ends up at 65.” “I’ve been thinking about it,” said Hall of Fame GM Bill Polian, “and I want to withhold final judgment, but there are a few factors. Miami’s getting rid of players. The Rams are aggressive. And I think for players with leverage, they see this as being the NBA. I’ll go where I want to go. Ramsey, Antonio Brown—trade me, and the hell with the consequences. But there’s also a little bit of the old [Dodgers GM] Branch Rickey in some of the newer GMs. Rickey said, ‘The only title you can win is the title you can win this year.’ “ Polian then made a fascinating point: He said he didn’t want to be a “curbstone psychologist.” But he said, “I think this generation of GMs might be a little more transactional. It used to be not many GMs thought about taking risks. They were from a generation where their parents might have grown up in the Depression, or remembered the Depression. Life was hard enough without taking risks. Today, the idea that you can make these decisions and change your team quickly is inculcated in this generation. I’m not sure of that, but it seems to be true.” I love that theory. I think it is dead-on. Why wait to fix a problem when you might get fired after two years? When I told Demoff and Snead, they were fascinated. “Bill makes a great point about our league now, and your trade data backs up the fact it’s not just us. Bill Belichick is great at it too. When they have a hole, he doesn’t wait. He attacks. He trades. He takes chances too.” Demoff pounced next: “The NBA is coming to the NFL. This [the Ramsey trade] is a similar case to those NBA deals. “Prior team-building formulas, where you basically had guys for their careers, is pretty much over,” he said. “Think of the guys who’ve moved in the past year. Khalil Mack. Marcus Peters. Jalen Ramsey. Jarvis Landry. Laremy Tunsil—” “Odell!” Snead interjected. “Beckham too—forgot him,” Demoff said. “But I think there’s one other important factor here. Today, it’s easier to find ways to measure performance. There’s a rise of analytics, there’s better technology, better and more accurate data. What we’ve found is you can find undervalued players easier than before. So I think football people are getting better at synthesizing data to find players.”

Wow, it didn't take long for this thread to go Godwin!! (@GG and @Kelly the Dog)

I agree. When I watched that again, I thought, wow, if that was another player besides Hyde (a great punt catcher!!), that might have turned out the be the first successful onside kick all season. It was a perfect kick.

Re penalties, I was surprised to find this: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/penalties-per-game. The Bills are 30th in the league in penalties per game called against and subsequently accepted by the opponent. Only Atlanta and Cleveland are worse.

True, but the Dolphins' defense is AWFUL and was missing their most physically gifted d-lineman (to be fair, Ford did a great job of baiting him into a punch by playing past the whistle, so he gets some props for that).

I agree; he has feasted on bad teams. That said, almost every QB builds up stats against bad teams. Re LA in the playoffs, he did play reasonably well against the Chargers in the 16th week of last season; the Ravens won that game in LA, 22-10. He's not the next coming, but he's a lot better than I thought he was going to be and is being well-utilized by a very smart coach (Harbaugh). Harbaugh was absolutely right to cut the cord on Flacco.

I know; I'm mostly kidding about the ridiculousness of the Pats.

On their final possession, he threw three passes on five plays. One was a deep pass to Burkhead. They were up 37-0.

LOL, the Pats. My god:

Not the Pats. Brady threw a TD pass with 2:15 to go and with the Pats up 37-0.

Agreed. If they had a reasonable number of decent players on defense, they may well have pulled that game out because the scheming was good. Luckily for the Bills, their defensive talent is awful.

The other thing about yesterday: Allen, who had 7 INTs through 5 games, didn't throw a pass that came remotely close to getting picked. Miami has one pick on the season and has given up 16 TD passes. Man, their pass D is terrible.

This is NOT in any way a criticism of Josh Allen!! However, when your best defensive performance is a QB with a 91.4 rating through 6 games, your pass defense is abjectly terrible. Indeed, Miami's team defensive passer rating is 127.9, which I think is probably the worst in league history.

He's a terrific player.

The Bills have to play the AFC West next season, and Denver seems like a good next landing spot for Fitz. Don't rule that out!

That's true, and I should have mentioned that. Still, playing against Seattle in Seattle in a rainstorm is not an easy task.

I thought he came through big time yesterday when it counted too, but one of the reasons he's not sniffing 300 yards is that he's been incapable of throwing an accurate deep ball all season. That has to change. It's one of the most basic skills requirements of even a replacement-level NFL QB.

I don't really pay attention to them, to be honest. Bear in mind that I have been on this site for years beating the drum that the traditional team passer rating differential is the most accurate predictor of success (outside of points scored differential!) that exists.

Who here actually said that? I certainly didn't. Read what I wrote (and I'm the only one who brought this issue up, and related it specifically to Jackson).

The Ravens are 11-3 when he starts, and he has a QB rating of 89.9 plus nearly 1,300 yards rushing and 8 TDs in 14 games. At some point, the preconceived narrative has to shift in the face of actual evidence that cuts against it.

No he wouldn't, because the Bills would have put up 30 points against a very good team in a very difficult place to play during a rainstorm. Plus he would have rushed for 116 yards on 14 carries. Maybe some would have criticized him for "not playing like a QB," but that's a very limiting prism through which to evaluate a QB's overall contribution. Please explain your laugh remark too. Do you think Jackson played poorly? Did you watch the game? I did. Allen played quite well yesterday himself, and really bounced back in the second half after a bad first half.

Passer rating is a poor way to evaluate Jackson right now. He played really well yesterday.

Absolutely correct. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

I get that. Do watch it again. Typical of his overthrows this season — no air under it and gives his receivers no chance.