ATBNG

I've always though if you swapped Moulds and Harrison back on draft day in '96, Moulds would be Harrison.

Very doubtful Ozy. I'm guessing Jets -4 or 5. AFC is 41-19 against the NFC, and the Rams have been blown out in all three interconference games thus far.

Come on - let's be serious. The Vikings were up 17-6 at the 2 minute warning with a playoff spot on the line against a team who were in line to get the #1 draft pick with a loss. They ultimately lost the game and the playoff spot on a 4th and 26 play. All Pats/Bills rivalry aside - that HAS to be it. Objectively, the Pats weren't even double digit favorites at Miami (9.5), and there are plenty of occasions when double digit favorites have spit the bit over the last five years. It was a very bad loss, but ultimately it may not have cost them anything if Pittsburgh were to have won out. The loss to Pittsburgh on the other hand certainly cost them home field throughout.

Minnesota at Arizona in week 17 last year comes to mind.

Dillon doesn't play on third down because the Pats have Kevin Faulk, who is very valuable as a third down back for his blocking, his pass catching ability and most importantly his nose for the chains which is exceptional. The days of three down running backs seem to be declining. Dillon is decent to good at blitz pickup (not great). Henry is in the bottom three backs in the league. Dillon looks like he has been playing with a hand injury this season. Comparing Dillon's worst season for fumbles versus Travis's best and then saying they're similar is not a very level-headed comparison. I don't think Henry would ever be on the Patriots - they really put a premium on pass blocking because they run so many WR screens and one back sets. The three years of Antowain also suggest that they will sacrifice yards for a lack of turnovers.

One other problem that I see with Henry is that he's not very useful as a backup to McGahee because his skills don't match the typical "third down" back profile well because of the poor blocking and pass routes/receiving. He also isn't likely to return kicks on this team or play special teams.

I definitely agree that the NFL blackout rule is awfully arbitrary. It should be based on some fairer formula (capacity/local population) than punishing areas that are smaller and/or have larger stadiums.

I'm curious three-step. How were you able to determine that Martz was in the middle of a mental breakdown? He seems like his normal self to me.

I'd rather have Tatum Bell, Julius Jones or Greg Jones. More than them though, I'd rather have the pick, where at least I preserve the option that I can improve my team at any position depending on who is available, rather than trade that pick for a RB who is getting worse and was at least partially responsible for my quarterback stumbling around like Boom Boom Mancini at the tail end of the last two seasons because his blitz pickup was so weak.

I don't think so. The Bengals got pick #64 specifically for Dillon - i.e. the lowest pick in the second round. There's a difference between getting a known pick and a generic pick (say in the 2006 draft) in the second round. Dillon is a much better running back than Henry. He's been more productive for a longer period of time, is a better blocker, fumbles much less, and stays on the field (if Henry misses Sunday's game, he'll have missed as many games this year as Dillon has in his career). The middle two below-average skills are very important - NFL talent evaluators aren't trying to win a fantasy football league. Few running backs in the NFL have all that much trade value, and I don't think Henry is among them. Marshall Faulk only fetched a second rounder the year before he became the consensus best player in the league. Guys like Nick Goings and Reuben Droughens have come from the bottom of the depth chart and gotten the job done for their respective teams. 5th, conditional 4th at best, but if I had to guess I'd guess he is released.

So what has been your goal in posting dozens of times this week that blurb about the "single most embarrassing loss in the last five years?" I guess technically you're not "from Buffalo."

It's still going to be Philly. Reid is a good enough coach to adjust to losing Owens, and they still have home field throughout in a conference full of pretenders. That first game (Seattle?) figures to be a layup, then they just need to take out the GB/Atlanta winner.

From a cold hearted fantasy perspective, the AFC East figures to be an excellent defensive division for a few years as it has been over the last three or four. I try not to think outside of three years because so much can happen - especially in the NFL. Evans has great stats, but he's gotten a lot of them against the NFC West, who he won't see again for four years. He might be a tad inflated. I'd still take him over Porter, who hasn't shown much consistency. So, when it comes to Clayton, I'd keep him over Evans and Porter (and even Fitzgerald). Porter is four among those two - and Evans/Fitz is really close. I'm almost convinced Evans will be the better receiver, but those NFC West defenses mitigate that.

Mantasia... I personally have been surprised at how slow Fitzgerald looks when he's out there, although I know that this could be mitigated somewhat by his ankle which he hurt in the preseason. It seemed to me though that he could not operate as a pure #1 and that he only began to get catches once Boldin came back. In my mind Williams looked like the prize early on just because of his physical gifts, but there's little doubt that all these guys have come as advertised - the best WR class in a near-decade (since 1996). Can't quibble with your rankings too much Rico save for moving a guy down or up a spot. Evans has been very productive right when they needed him.

100% no. Think of how unfair the scheduling could be Scott - teams getting in the playoffs just because they happend to catch a 3-13 team in week 17 who had already started making tee times. The current tiebreakers are the best solution, just like democracy is the best form of government amongst many bad choices.

Pitt beat NE and Philly in Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. I'd say Jacksonville was their most impressive road win if I had to pick one. No one else is + .500 (Miami, Cincy, Cleveland, NYG, Dallas - they lost to Baltimore). The Steelers have been lucky against both East divisions to have played the tough teams in Pittsburgh and the easier games on the road.

When in doubt with these things, I like to use the point spread as a guide. Big gamblers will do everything it takes to get the information they need to make a decision on which side to take in these games - determining whether Dungy is going to rest the starters or play to win will be crucial to sports' investors. If this game was three weeks ago when everything was still up for grabs, I think I would have established Indy as around a 4-5 point favorite at Denver. The circumstances of the game naturally will lower it but the degree will give you an indication of what to expect. Case in point - Atlanta opened as a 3 point favorite this week at NO. Later, word leaked out that Vick wasn't playing and that Mora was going to go into "protect" mode. The line ended up moving 8 points until NO was favored by 5 this morning. Big swings in one direction usually mean that the other team is expected to take the day off.

41-19 AFC with four games left. SF at NE NYJ at St. Louis Detroit at Tennessee Cincinnati at Philly

After the dominant Buffalo win today, 14 games have been completed between these two divisions. The AFC East is 12-2, and they have outscored the NFC West in these matchups 408-211. That's over a two touchdown margin per game. I wonder if this is the worst drudging one division has laid on another since the league expanded to the 4x8 format and the new schedule. SF still has to go to New England next weekend (although at least the game will be peripheral to the Pats' position). Obviously you guys will be hoping for a change in the trade winds (or at least the St. Louis dome air conditioner) next week.

No coach wants to see a Terrell Owens-like situation happen to his team once playoff position has been established. What would you do if you were in charge? I don't think Indy will be that concerned with the specific matchup - they're 7-1 at home this year. The constructive work that Dungy can do is get his backups and second tier guys in there to face some game action in case something happens during the playoffs. The reward for that outgains the risk.

I would root for the Chargers simply because Indy is the one team in the NFL "built" for playing on artificial turf. Buffalo hasn't played one game on turf this year - have they? That would be a tough first one to say the least.

Also keep an eye on Carolina/Tampa. If Carolina wins, then St. Louis will only have a .1% shot at the wild card. Carolina + New Orleans play each other next week, and both teams own regular season victories over St. Louis and thus the tiebreaker.

That's a good line - CRAZY with integrity. I like it. I do think he'll let Peyton and the starting O play 20 minutes or so to put up #50 if the weather holds up, but he'll be hypersensitive to any near injury.

Dungy's responsibility is to the Colt players, fans and organization. How would you feel if Buffalo: 1. Had wrapped up a playoff spot with nothing to gain. 2. Had a meaningless game at the end of the season. 3. Mularkey ended up playing his regulars in the game 4. Takeo or McGahee or Adams was injured and out for the playoffs? Would you be saying that Mularkey was a man of integrity? Or would you be calling for the team to fire him instantly?

The Raiders have been eliminated.