BillsFanForever19

It's pretty clear this season is about evaluating the development of Dalton Kincaid in Year 2, Khalil Shakir in Year 3, Keon Coleman in his Rookie year - playing along with the long term addition of Curtis Samuel. They've surrounded them with a number of guys who have shown differing levels of production on other teams with other QB's and/or a skill profile that at least gave them a high Draft pedigree in MVS, Mack Hollins, Chase Claypool, Quintez Cephus, Justin Shorter, KJ Hamler, and Andy Isabella. 7 players (plus 4 other UDFA's/Futures) playing for 3 positions. If you can't afford high end quality, bring in quantity and find the best performing from that field. I much prefer the concept of bringing in a bunch of lower to mid level guys and choosing the best from the field as opposed to last year of just bringing in Harty and Sherfield and hoping for the best. After this season, they'll have an idea as to what levels Coleman, Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel are at with Josh and the Offense and circumvent accordingly in FA and the Draft.

If I'm overestimating, you're underestimating. The trading team doesn't acquire the player at no cap hit. That's not the way it works. Depending on contract scenarios, the cap hit may be lower. We aren't on the hook for bonus money. But the hit applies.

I don't know, I think he's got a fairly even shot to make the roster. Every year under McDermott, save for last season, (where we carried extra DL to account for Von not starting the year and players we didn't want to cut) we've kept 6 or 7 WR's (generally accounting the 7th for Special Teams). I see us keeping 6 this season. Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, MVS, and Hollins (mainly for ST and blocking abilities) seem locked in. Meaning one spot remains for Shorter, Claypool, Cephus, Hamler, and the rest of the UDFA/Futures Pool. All things equal, I think Shorter has the edge being a 5th Round Draft investment. He'd have to look pretty poor in Camp and the Pre-Season for them to give up on him or Claypool and/or Cephus exceed expectations. We've only outright cut a pick above Round 6 without being given a shot on the 53 once under McDermott. That was Vosean Joseph.

For the hundredth time - you can't restructure numbers on contracts until after you've acquired them. To acquire them, you need to be able to take on the contract from the other team as is - or the trade won't go through. This is where I'm saying the '25 numbers are beside the point. We need to be able to fit their current contract under our cap this year for it to work. And the trade isn't just "can you pay the cash salary? Done". You are looking at these trade options from a strictly Bills fan standpoint. The Titans moving Hopkins makes no sense. Boyd is a Slot. Ridley replaces Burks in the lineup. This is akin to another team thinking "well Buffalo can't get anything for Elam, so maybe we can get Benford or Douglas and they'll start Elam". Unlikely, at best. Do you know how many players are talked about as being "available for trade" that don't get moved every year? And the only ones that *seem* available are Higgins and one of the SF WR's. Everyone else is just Twitter fan fiction, at this point. We've Drafted Coleman and signed Samuel, MVS, Hollins, Claypool, and Cephus. That's SIX WR additions this offseason alone. Not to mention having Shorter coming off of his redshirt year after spending a 5th on him. And of course, Khalil Shakir. We kept 5 WR's last season. Acquiring another at this point would be to cut all of Hollins (who was signed early in FA as they envision a role as a blocking WR and ST'er), Shorter (who I don't see being given no shot), Claypool, Cephus, Hamler, Isabella, and all UDFA's. I don't see him cutting all of them or even keeping just 1 of them. Beane isn't sitting there going "Einstein's Dog doesn't think this player I signed or Drafted is enough, so I'm just going to ignore signing or Drafting them and keep going". That's not how it works. As it is, 50% of the posters on this board didn't think we'd add even 1 more WR before the MVS move. Now we're going to add not just one, but two more? Again, I don't see it. Especially at what it would cost financially, in compensation, what it would mean to the current depth chart, and the uncharacteristic from Beane cap maneuvers it would take to make it fit. If we add anyone else, I see it being a CB. We have Douglas and Benford starting, which is good. But Benford is injury prone and beneath them on the perimeter, we have just Kaiir Elam (who is still a question mark) and Ja'Marcus Ingram. We lost Tre White and Dane Jackson and didn't replace Jackson. Then there's the cost of the Draft Picks we haven't signed, the Practice Squad, and in season spending - which are unavoidable expenses that we have to account for that you just want to ignore.

With the addition of MVS, the roster is now at capacity for Training Camp. Any additions made from here will have a roster cut following it.

You're ignoring the cost of Draft Picks we have to sign, the cost of the Practice Squad, the couple million we go into the year with - on top of the MVS signing we just did. If the plan was to do a big trade, we wouldn't have signed MVS. We won't have 10m or close to it. What we have next year doesn't matter when it comes to taking on contracts from other teams this season. We have to have the cap space as is on the contract for the trade to go through. Von? He already restructured him/made him take a pay cut for more than was expected and spent that money. Nothing else is happening to Von or his contract. Again, Allen was restructured already. He's never restructured someone twice in the same offseason. If we wanted him to give us more money, we would have taken it then I've told you why Hopkins is eliminated. He's one of two Outside starting WR's they have. They aren't putting Burks back in there. Metcalf? I don't see him being traded at all. If the Seahawks wanted to move a guy like that, it would have happened by now and they would have drafted a replacement. If the Seahawks were to move anyone, it would be Lockett.

Davante Adams? Ha! Beyond his insane contract - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39610108/raider-gm-says-wr-davante-adams-traded What part of 'we don't have that money and we don't have the ability to come up with that kind of money' don't you get? You're one step away from the ole' "I don't care, just make it happen!" and "the salary cap isn't real" refrains. It simply isn't there and there isn't a way to come up with what it would take to get a Higgins or Aiyuk/Samuel. If there were a path financially, it would require things so extreme cap wise that there's no way Beane would do it. And everyone else on your list falls somewhere between *extremely* unlikely to be traded to definitely won't be traded - even if we could afford it. This is why I made that post. It wasn't that I preferred MVS or Thomas over someone bigger. It's that the option was something like that or nothing. Which is why he made the move for MVS.

There's also the cost of the Practice Squad and in season spending pool. We also have an open roster spot for Training Camp, so we're going to sign someone. Long story short, we won't be rolling over 9m.

Well said. Regardless of how we got here, we're in a situation where we have a hole without the financial ability to do something like Higgins or Aiyuk/Samuel. So we can either roll with Hollins, Claypool, and/or Shorter on the Outside to start the year (with Coleman unlikely to be thrown straight into the starting role, from Beane's own admission) or we can address it as best we can with what is available to us. Even if what's available to us isn't a massive upgrade, we have to take what we can get. And MVS would still be an upgrade over those options.

Geesh. I can see why they're bringing in MVS now. Between Chark, OBJ, Gallup, Robinson, and now Jones being scooped up Post Draft - waiting for 6/1 is likely no longer an option.

You're right. No one's giving up much of anything for Burks. Because he has bust written all over him. Which is why they signed Ridley to replace him. They aren't sitting there thinking "well, we can get something for Hopkins and we can't get anything for Burks - so let's move Hopkins and make ourselves worse by starting Burks, even though we've just replaced him". You're only looking at that situation from a Bills fan perspective. It doesn't make any sense for Tennessee. They don't need the cap space, aren't tanking, and are trying to give Will Levis the best weapons to develop. As for the contracts - they have to be able to take on a contract as is for a trade to be approved before they can "play with it". You can't touch it before you acquire the player and it won't be approved if you don't have it. And we won't. Having the Draft Picks, having the need, and wanting more than what we can do doesn't change the fact that what you want is extremely unlikely and nearly impossible to happen. If it's something major or nothing, you're way more likely than not, getting nothing. That's why.... As I've said, of course I'd want one of those guys over who we're bringing in tonight and the other options that I've brought up. But the options I've been looking at are realistic. The ones you are fixated on, are not. With what it would take for Beane to do it, it's akin to hoping we'd trade into the Top 6 of the Draft a month ago. You're putting your expectations too high and setting yourself up for disappointment. If the option is a realistic one or nothing, I'll take the best we can get over Hollins, Shorter, and Claypool. And it's way more likely than not that the best that we can do is an MVS.

Looks like Beane prefers MVS.

There it is. As I was saying in the 'Pick Your Poison" thread - we don't have the moves left to pull off something major. So it was going to be a FA acquisition or a smaller Trade along these lines or nothing. Right now, with Coleman not expected to be shoved right into a starting role, Shakir as a Pure Slot, and Samuel as a mainly interior and out of the Backfield guy - we're looking at our starting options on the Outside being Hollins, Shorter, and Claypool. Say what you want about MVS, he's a better option than any of the above.

Slayton is intriguing. Speedy, young, and produced over 700 yards in back to back season with less than stellar QB play. If the options are starting Hollins, Shorter, and/or Claypool on the Outside to start the season or longer or acquiring a Michael Thomas or MVS in FA or a Tyler Lockett, Darius Slayton, or Jacobi Myers via Trade - I'll take the latter 6 days a week and twice on Sundays.

I meant to respond to your other post on my FA WR thread and forgot. So I'll just do it here. Your list is 95% made up of guys we either won't be able to afford, will require an amount of compensation in picks and money that I don't see Beane doing at this stage in the Offseason, and/or won't be being traded. For the millionth time, Moore isn't going anywhere. They gave up a fair amount to get him just a season ago and he's produced. Allen works predominantly out of the Slot. They'll have Moore and Odunze on the Outside with Allen in the slot, Allen working in on the Outside when either needs to sub out. They don't really have anything underneath those 3 guys. They knew what they were doing acquiring all 3 over the past two seasons. Hopkins is the most likely to be acquired from a financial standpoint. But like the Bears and Moore, I don't see them moving him for many of the same reasons. They acquired him just last year when Burks underachieved expectations. They hoped with Hopkins on the other side, he'd take a step forward. Instead, he took a step backwards. Realizing they're nowhere with Burks, they signed Ridley to remove him from the signing lineup. The addition of Boyd does nothing to alter Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside. He's a PURE Slot. They'll have Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside and Boyd Inside. I see no way they're going to move out Hopkins and put Burks back in the Starting Lineup, following last season. If they move anyone, it would be Burks. You're ignoring expenses we have that are unavoidable. Counting what we have left and the money that's coming from Tre - we'll have about 12. But half or more of that is going to go to paying for our Draft Picks, paying for the Practice Squad, and a little left for in season spending. You keep mentioning restructuring Josh for a second time in the same offseason. I don't see that happening. He's never restructured someone twice in the same offseason. I'm not sure why he chose to not restructure the full amount he could, but there was a reason for it. If he was going to squeeze more out of his deal for this offseason, he'd have done it then. As for other cap saving measures, we've done literally all we could do in terms of potential releases, extension, and restructures already. Save for just two possibilities. A restructure to Oliver and a restructure to Milano. Those moves won't be nearly enough to take on most of your list and pay for the unavoidable expenses we have. This is why I was looking at the FA market. I agree we could use someone bigger from your list. But I don't see us being able to pull it off and more importantly, I don't see Beane doing what it would take in giving up premium Draft Picks, restructuring deals he's already done this offseason, AND paying someone a massive long term deal at the numbers they're being done for this year. If we are to make a move, at all, I see it either being a Free Agent or someone more like this on a trade that would require far less to pull off: In regards to your last reply to me on the other thread, identifying that it's unlikely to practically impossible to acquire a major target doesn't mean I don't think we need it. Nor does saying it's that or nothing make it more likely to happen or that other options couldn't provide an upgrade from what we have on the Outside to start the season.

I don't see him making it. He'll have a "chance", just like anyone in Training Camp does. But he's a longshot. I think they view him like a Brandin Bryant before him. A guy they like enough that he always has a spot on the Practice Squad and is generally the first to get called up if there's an injury. But they feel fairly safe putting him there. If he gets pulled away to a 53 (as he did briefly with Atlanta last year), they're happy for him. But they know he'll always find his way back. We kept 6 last year, but that was just because of Von's injury and the guys we had under contract/Drafted that we felt we couldn't lose. Usually the numbers 4 or 5. I think we keep 5 this year. Groot, Von, and Epenesa are locks. Solomon being a 5th Round Pick (and a steal there) is pretty safe in my eyes. That leaves one spot for Smoot, Toohill, or Kingsley. Smoot signed a 2.5m contract with 1.75 guaranteed and is a much more productive player with much more experience. I think he gets the last spot. I even think Toohill has a better chance than Kingsley does. If they truly felt that Kingsley had earned a spot on the 53 after last season, they wouldn't have Drafted Solomon and signed Smoot post Draft, after signing Toohill earlier in Free Agency. They'd have passed on one or two of those.

Agreed. He's going to have options. And his agent is going to direct him to a team that is either going to straight up give him the job or to a team that has an inexpensive starter that doesn't have a secure grasp on the starting job for an even and open competition for a starting job. Not to a team like us that has a guy on an expensive, unlikely to be cut contract, and a firm position on the 53.

UB LB Joe Andreeseen has been signed to the roster after his Rookie Minicamp tryout. This leaves one open roster spot. Though bottom of the roster releases could be done if they decided to sign more than one player between now and Training Camp.

He's the starter at Slot. He'll share the role with Kincaid (occasionally working at TE with his hand on the ground) and Samuel (working there, out of the Backfield, in motion, and the occasional outside reps) - and probably often as one of two inside in 4 WR sets. But I see Shakir as the starter there.

Added the numbers of the UDFA's, if anyone cares about stuff like that. Cool to see Frank Gore Jr. take his dad's number from when he was here.

As it stands, it's a pretty clear 53. We will have some money come 6/1. Though around half of what we'll have between now and then will have to go to Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, and in season spending money - we will sign a couple players and I'd figure at least one of them will be a rostered guy. WR: I agree we will keep 6, maybe even 7 (as we've done that multiple times under McDermott). As it stands, I think the extra guy wouldn't be Hamler or Isabella. It would be Claypool. But I would expect another to be added that will change that. DE: Like WR, The 5th guy I don't expect to be either of the guys you listed. I see it being Dawuane Smoot. He was signed for more money than Toohill and is a better player than both of them. LB: I could see this being just 5. That's what we kept last year. Especially if they kept 7 WR's. CB: I could see a 4th Outside CB be added that would push Ingram off the roster. Especially with how frequent Benford is injured and Elam's development being shaky at best. Other than those things, I agree completely with your 53.

With all due respect to you and the guy on WGR - I agree to disagree. If Coleman takes to things like a fish in water in Training Camp and the Pre-Season with Josh, maybe McDermott changes his spots a little bit. But he's frustratingly conservative bringing along Rookies out of the gate. We didn't start utilizing Kincaid on a regular basis until the end of the year, even after he was showing signs early. And Beane himself also said Coleman's probably not stating the year. As for Shakir, again, I don't know who this guy is who said this - but from the sounds of it, it sounds like a national guy who was hypothesizing. I've yet to hear this from more connected local guys. And from a logical standpoint, it doesn't make much sense. You've got a guy who was looked at in league circles as a Slot only guy at the next level. He's shown growth year to year there and was playing at a very high level last season. Working the middle of the field, finding gaps in short yardage, and intermediately against Nickel CB's and LB's. We're now going to take him from where he was great and growing and then tell him to do something completely differently? And I don't know how they could think that. They didn't ask him to do it very often last season. Only when we were in a pinch late in the year with Davis down. And when we did, he didn't produce from that spot, as opposed to how he was producing in the Slot.

Here's a look at how the roster is shaping out, by position as we head towards Training Camp. Travis Clayton being an International Pathway Player gets a roster exemption, allowing us to carry 91 instead of 90: QB: Josh Allen #17 Mitch Trubisky #11 Shane Buechele #6 RB: James Cook #4 Ray Davis #22 Ty Johnson #26 Darrynton Evans #37 Frank Gore Jr. #20 - Reggie Gilliam #41 WR: Keon Coleman #0 Curtis Samuel #1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling Khalil Shakir #10 Mack Hollins #13 Justin Shorter #18 Chase Claypool #14 K.J. Hamler #19 Andy Isabella #87 Tyrell Shavers #80 Bryan Thompson #89 Xavier Johnson Jr. #16 Lawrence Keys #82 TE: Dalton Kincaid #86 Dawson Knox #88 Quintin Morris #85 Zach Davidson #84 Tre Mc'Kitty #83 OL: Dion Dawkins #73 David Edwards #76 Connor McGovern #66 O'Cyrus Torrence #64 Spencer Brown #79 - La'el Collins #71 Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62 Ryan Van Demark #74 Alec Anderson #70 Tylan Grable #68 Travis Clayton #67 (Roster Exemption) Will Clapp #77 Tommy Doyle #72 Richard Gouraige #75 Kevin Jarvis #63 Keaton Bills #60 Gunner Britton #61 Mike Edwards #65 DE: Von Miller #40 Greg Rousseau #50 AJ Epenesa #57 Dawuane Smoot #94 Javon Solomon #56 Casey Toohill #95 Kingsley Jonathan #59 Kameron Cline #96 David Ugwoebgu #55 Rondell Bothroyd #97 DT: Ed Oliver #91 Daquan Jones #92 DeWayne Carter #90 Austin Johnson #98 DeShawn Williams #99 Eli Ankou #51 Branson Deen #53 LB: Matt Milano #58 Terrel Bernard #43 Dorian Williams #42 Edefuan Ulofoshio #48 Baylon Spector #54 Deion Jones #45 Nicholas Morrow #52 Joe Andreeseen #41* (Camp # Owned by Gilliam) CB: Rasul Douglas #31 Christian Benford #47 Taron Johnson #7 Kaiir Elam #5 Daequan Hardy #25 Ja'Marcus Ingram #46 Kyron Brown #32 Keni-H Lovely #38 Te'Cory Couch #33 S: Cole Bishop #24 Mike Edwards #21 Taylor Rapp #9 Cam Lewis #33 Dee Delaney Damar Hamlin #3 Kendall Williamson #36 ST: Tyler Bass #2 Sam Martin #8 Reid Ferguson #69 Matt Haack #15 Jack Browning #30

People need to keep in mind that Tyler Boyd is a PURE Slot. He does nothing to alter the lineup on the Outside. Currently, they have Ridley and Hopkins on the Outside and Boyd in the Slot. I don't think the acquisition of Boyd makes it much more likelier that they'd trade Hopkins than before they acquired him. If they had Drafted someone alongside the Ridley and Boyd acquisitions, I could see it. But they didn't. If they move Hopkins, they'll be back to starting Burks - who they said was on a make or break season last year and didn't improve. Which is why I think they signed Ridley. As much as I'd love Hopkins, the only move I see them doing, if any, is moving on from Burks.