BillsFanForever19

My thought is Braelon Allen. A very similar runner to Henry in terms of size and play style, although less of a Receiver. He'll be available later than Benson and is someone we interviewed at the Combine.

The problem isn't the logic of whether he'd be good for us on the team or not. The problem is with the logic of everything else - him choosing us at a reduced role and a reduced price when he doesn't have to settle for either and has other playoff contenders who will give him both. Even then, that "reduced" price is probably 3-4x what we've paid for that role in the past, when we were in a more questionable position than we're in at now with RB1, are in worse shape cap wise, and there's many more less expensive options than in other years. We're still over the cap and the only thing we can guarantee will be done by the time FA starts is the Josh Restructure. The lack of logic that we'll get into a Bidding War and pay much more than is necessary for the role we have and that Henry will have to settle for it far outweighs the logic of whether he's a good scheme fit or not. Much like a lot of your posts, I'd be happy if this is something Beane chose to do. It's just a matter of not "logically" believing it's something that he would do.

Yeah, there's absolutely no difference between the *GM* of the team, who makes the decisions of a players future, *specifically* talking about the future of a player at a position that is overly crowded and a player with little reason to be traded themselves tweeting out something "cryptic" 🙄

The thing that gets me is the multiple leaps people make. When something is said or tweeted, it's one thing to imply maybe it means something beyond what it most likely is. But then they leap again to it means a trade is likely or possible based on the unlikely conclusion they've already jumped to.

That's pretty much it. Furthermore, the walking emoji is explained when you check his IG story. He posted it yesterday when he was literally walking for 5 miles. He's probably doing more of that today, leading to inner reflection. Ain't no way we're adding LT to our list of needs right now in the shape we're in and COMPLETELY overhauling the OL that Beane raved about from last year.

Just like most "cryptic tweets" that get made a big deal out of - my guess is it's nothing. This is probably just him in shock after seeing long time teammates Morse, Tre, and Poyer being cut. Contemplating if the same could happen to him one day and hoping it doesn't.

11 Picks so far. We could use a 3rd after getting screwed by the league. But I don't know if I agree that if Thomas is gone we should Trade Down or wait until Round 2 on WR. I think if Mitchell is on the board, we should pull the trigger. I worry about Worthy's fit, but being the fastest player ever recorded has me a little more liberal with giving him a chance. And I know you aren't as high on Legette as me, but from an athlete standpoint - he feels like exactly what we'd be looking for. Personally after Mitchell and Legette are gone, I feel like the next tier of guys aren't great fits. McConkey, Pearsall, Corley, McMillan, and R. Wilson are all either Slots or not True Outside WR's imo. Franklin and Coleman have things about them that really bother me and were highlighted at the Combine. If you wait until 60, who knows what's left. If you trade down, you could miss out on a guy like Mitchell or Legette that fit what I think we're looking for. I don't see it the same that after Thomas, there isn't that much of a difference on who we take and can afford to wait.

I like the idea of Hollywood Brown. But now after Higgins, Pittman, and Evans are off the board - he's probably in that top tier of WR's left available and will most likely be overpaid. Spotrac estimates him at 15m aav on a 4 year 60m dollar deal. I like him, but I don't like him that much. A little too injury prone for that kind of contract. Really big on Noah Brown. I think he fits perfectly as a guy who could provide a very solid option in a Reserve role or put us in decent shape if our Rookie takes a little while to get his sea legs under him and will be in our price range.

This is essentially it. You can say in a vacuum that Derrick Henry would be awesome as part of a 1-2 punch with Cook. And of course he would. But when it comes to us landing him, the logic falls apart. Baltimore has already pursued him, made it further in the Playoffs than we did, they have nothing at RB and he can continue to be who he was in Tennessee, and they have more money than us. Houston, another team that made it as far into the Playoffs as we did, has an opening at Starter, and more money. He bought a home in Dallas. Dallas also is in need of a Starting RB, was also the #2 Seed in the Playoffs on the NFC side, and has more money than us. The idea that he has to accept less and a reduced role to play with a competitor like us is incorrect. He can have his cake and eat it too with other teams. And he will. And that doesn't even take into account our side. We only were willing to pay 1.7m for RB2 last season when we were in (slightly) better shape financially and RB1 was a much bigger question mark. There's a reason why when they list the Vegas odds for Henry - we aren't on it.

I framed mine as well the day I got it in the mail. Looking at it right now.

Hadn't heard that. Clubhouse leader's been Baltimore. But Dallas makes a lot of sense as a landing spot as well. Derrick Henry is not going to have to settle for 4m plus incentives and a change of pace role. There's a large number of teams that need a Starting RB and have money. He was still the #2 Rusher in the NFL in Yardage last season. And a Superstar that sells tickets and jerseys. The idea that he's not going to have a market and wants to be a Change of Pace RB, willing to accept an incentive laden deal is foolish. He'll get better money and a better role elsewhere. And from other Playoff teams too.

The Nabers/Odunze trade up is a Pipe Dream of the highest magnitude. You might as well ponder the idea of us moving up for Marvin Harrison Jr. It's about as likely. Again, if it was even so much as a passing thought of a possibility, we'd have interviewed them at the Combine. We didn't even bother and for good reason. Agreed. He represents the highest rated prospect at play for us in a Trade Up. And even then, I don't see us doing it unless he falls into the 20's. I'd be shocked if we hopped Jacksonville to 16, but that's about the most "pie in the sky" idea based in any sort of realism.

Beyond the ridiculousness of such a notion, would be a helluva trick to somehow shrink 2". And to be honest, there really wasn't any scenario even before he ran way slower than expected (including ranking last amongst all WR's in the 10 yard split), measured in 2" shorter, 15 lbs. lighter, and performed awful in drills where we had to worry about him not dropping "right into the willing lap" of us at 28. He was supremely overrated by members of this board to begin with. For all his highlights, he has just as much tape of him struggling against CB's who won't be NFL players.

The best players at positions of need that they see as both a scheme fit and someone we can afford - while taking into account the amount of money we have available to us and the amount of bodies we need to fill, in conjunction with how many they're planning on getting in the Draft. This isn't a year where we as fans can focus on specific players and get disappointed if we don't sign them. Especially if they're anything more than mid-tier ticket FA's.

Lol at calling Thomas Jr. "a consolation prize" when it's more likely we probably won't be able to land him.

It makes sense - if you completely ignore a large number of other factors. The very first line of the article states "Put this in the department of 'It probably won't happen, but it sure would be beneficial'" "It probably won't happen" is being extremely generous IMO. And I find it hilarious that you feel like this purely hypothetical article, that even the author starts by saying it's unlikely, is such a big deal it necessitated it's own thread rather than just putting it in the Derrick Henry thread you're the most frequent poster in. If you want a Henry type Runner, Braelon Allen in the mid Rounds is what we should be looking at.

That kind of trade up was never going to happen even before today. We didn't even bother talking to either Nabers or Odunze at the Combine. If it was even as much as a thought that we'd consider doing a trade up for one of them, we would have. The difference in prospect projection between them and whomever we pick in Round 1 is not worth giving up the King's bounty it would take to get one. Regardless of how a prospect looks, there's no guarantee that the guys at the top will end up being better than guys taken a little later - at the next level. We'd look completely foolish to give up that much and then there's a situation like 2020, where Justin Jefferson as WR5 was FAR and away better in the NFL than everyone taken before him. Beane's far too responsible to do something like that. If we still had Doug Whaley, maybe. And that blew up in his face, trading away a 1st in 2015 to get Sammy Watkins when we could have kept that pick and Drafted OBJ.

Franklin at 28 is pretty much out. He was more of a projection by fans of the board that watched highlights than a consensus 1st Round Pick to begin with. After a historically bad Combine, both in performance and metrics, dispelling everything that made him a 1st Round projection by some and confirming concerns - he's settled in universally as a mid 2nd Round Pick on all Mocks. Seriously, take a look and find me one person who has him as a 1st these days. He's no better than WR9 at this point across the board.

Right, a Midseason trade for a Player. And one where he made sure to get a pick back (a 3rd for Douglas and a 5th) in return so he wasn't straight up losing one.

Beane doesn't trade next year picks. The only time he ever has is for a player Midseason. Even then, he always tries to recoup a pick later to make up for it. He's always in the market to add more, not give those away. Anything's possible. But history says it's pretty unlikely he's going to trade multiple picks from next year away.

One thing that I got about a year ago that I was pretty excited about was an Original 1987 Costacos Brothers 'Machine Gun Kelly' Poster. I spent a really long time looking for one of those in good condition at a decent price.

I tend to agree at this point that it's best to just sit at 28 and take the best available WR for us. That makes maneuvering around the board a much better situation for us in the following Rounds. The only way I see a Trade Up in Round 1 is if Thomas were to fall within 5 or so picks or there's a run of 6 WR's before 26.

Those are pretty much the 4 I've zeroed in on for us, as far players we interviewed and how I see the board talking. I think Worthy is probably unlikely, both in terms of where I think he's going to go and his fit. But I do hope he pushes someone down to us. If Thomas Jr. and Mitchell or Legette go before him - maybe. Thomas Jr. will require a trade up. If he falls within striking range, I'd expect Beane to pull the trigger. Otherwise, I think it's Legette or Mitchell at 28 - with maybe a very small move up if WR6 comes off the board by Pick 25.

I don't think the idea of Trading up in the 1st is completely out. Though it certainly makes things harder. Our first 4th, our first 5th, and our first 6th (all extra picks) can get us up 5 slots to Houston at 23. There is a chance he'll be there, especially if the Worthy hype train makes Thomas fall a bit. One thing that I think it does do is further dispells the idea of going WR at both 28 and 60. I never thought that was likely to begin with. Now I doubt it even more. I don't see a way we're addressing only WR before pick 129 at the bottom of the 4th. Sure, he could. But that probably wouldn't come until Draft Day. You don't often hear of Picks for Picks trades before the Draft, outside of the Top 5. Even if he talks about it before hand with someone, there's no guarantee that the deal gets done when the time comes. So he can't 100% plan on it. You hear all the time "we had a deal in place, but then (so and so) was on the board and they just couldn't pass on him". And the problem is, yes, we could get a 3rd Back with some movement. But that involves trading picks that we weren't expecting to trade to do that. Making other trades harder. A lot to ask to trade up in Round 1 for a WR and trade up into Round 3, when our extra ammo doesn't start until the end of Round 4. You can say "oh, well, just trade some picks next year". But Beane doesn't have a track record showing he's comfortable doing that. Next year's picks are always gold to him. He tends to collect those and doesn't trade them away.