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Everything posted by Ralonzo
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Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Amos is tops in forced incompletion rate. That's production for a CB. He checked the boxes at the combine as well. -
Louisiana, Kansas... close enough. The charts say Amos is relatively good in this class... but this class is relatively weak compared to '24.
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2 trades: 1) BUF-TEN : #30+177 -> #35+103 2) BUF-DAL : #56+62 -> #47+76+204 (Dallas had traded down #44 already with Arizona)
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Brugler has him CB106. Not the 106th best player... the 106th best CB. Runs 4.59, 5'10" or so, but does have longer arms for his size. Doesn't really sound like even a priority UDFA.
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Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Feels like if the Bills don't get their CB up high there's some options in the 5th between him, MacWilliams, Corie Black, Bilhal Kone, Zah Frazier. All can run. -
TSW 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #56
Ralonzo replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall
This ^^^ ideally the Bills can fit their draft picks to the board by value. I think I stated up there somewhere the ideal scenario is to trade down slightly from 30 to 35-40 range where the value is right for corners, and then trade up slightly from 56 to around 50 for your 1T. In some scenarios, Grant makes it down to the mid-30s and the Bills take him anyway, but then you have ammo to move up from 56 to secure your corner. Then you have the options of someone sticking out on your board at 62 at edge (Swinson?) or offer a tradeback if there's a position sticking out for some other team that can offer a 3 and a 4. That would be optimal in this draft, what I want out of the top-2 is a top CB (Hairston/Amos/Revel/Morrison) AND a top 1T (Grant/Collins/Tyleik) or EDGE (Landon Jackson, Ezeiruaku?). There's 1T's at all value levels throughout the draft. -
TSW 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #56
Ralonzo replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall
I wouldn't love doubling up on 1T with the top 2 picks you hold when you look at the guys who project to still be available at 169: Jamaree Caldwell Oregon, Nazir Stackhouse UGA, Yahya Black Iowa, Zeek Biggers GT, Cam Horsley BC, Elijah Simmon Tenn... Poor use of assets at a non-premium position, despite the Bills' lack there. -
Would like to see Chimere ***** with one of the 5th's just so SDS has to tweak the filter. Was going over the CBS mock https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2025-nfl-seven-round-mock-draft-three-trades-in-round-1-before-browns-and-giants-select-qbs-on-day-2/, and and I was very ok with the first four picks - Grant, Porter, Ezeiraku, Dont'e Thornton. But looking into how they pegged the later round (i.e. sleeper which is why it's in this thread) picks... 132) Caleb Ransaw CB Tulane. So he can run but isn't really productive... maybe look at Corie Black from OSU or Bilhal Kone from Western Michigan? 169) Cam Horsley DT Boston College. Doubling up on 1T is something a lot of TSW is doing, fair value here. There's a lot of these 1T's to pick from in this range, Stackhouse from Georgia, Biggers from GT, Yahya Black from Iowa, Jamaree Caldwell from Oregon, Elijah Simmons Tennessee, etc etc there's really a lot of them. 170) CJ Dippre TE Alabama. Buscaglia has zeroed in on him too as the Morris replacement as a core-4 ST guy. He and Fidone from Nebraska seem like those kinds of guys. 173) Cory Kiner RB Cincinnati. Uhh? Brashard Smith from SMU and Travor Etienne are still on the board and this is the pick? Slow, small, drops the football? Nope. 177) Maxen Hook S Toledo. He's yet another box-type, where the Bills need a free-type who has range and can go get the ball in the air, and in that area there's projectable guys like Marquis Sigle from K State, or JJ Roberts from Marshall as a poor man's Mukuba/Bowman. (Kitan Crawford went 162 to the Jets, boooo) 206) Elijah Ponder EDGE Cal-Poly for #206 recently, I started looking in and seems like a toolsy guy who beat up on inferior opponents which is fine at this point to see if he can step up a couple levels. I think we know what Kingsley Jonathan's ceiling is by now and it's practice squad.
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TSW 2.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #56
Ralonzo replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall
Buscaglia has Femi Oladejo at #56 in his mock from this morning. But then he has Revel at #62 and Mukuba at #109, and one of my sleeper types at 128 after a trade up, Brashard Smith who'd be plan B if you don't get Giddens... The strategery that has been most successful to me in mocks, has been two trades to turn 30 and 56-or-62 into three picks, mid-late 30's for the CB, something 50ish for Tyleik or Collins, and a 3rd rounder for an edge or safety, taking the other at the remainder of 56/62. 4 picks to fortify the defense on Days 1+2. There are other guys the Bills can target at WR, RB, OL and TE that can be had Day 3. Buscaglia's getting closer to that but it's a lot of assumptions on who might trade up and why - best case is someone needs to jump KC for tackle. Or KC can just give up 95 to move up a slot! -
Porter for sure was a reach where he was taken in this mock. He's usually in play at 62 let alone 56.
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With pick #54 in the TSW 2.0 draft, the Packers select Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame. This pick is made with an eye toward life after Jaire, and also this is the last of the tier-1/2 CB's left due to a run on them early in the round and is sticking up on our board. While we see a plethora of tier-2 and tier-3 receivers we now feel we can get a productive player later in the draft. Morrison dropped due to injury concerns but when he's right he can absolutely be a shutdown CB1. San Diego and @Doc Brown are on the clock.
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Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Both would be borderline firsts I think. Revel was referenced as potential mid-1st before the knee. -
Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
1) Baylon Spector 2) It's the only way to be sure -
Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
I'm just thinking now they looked at the options in this draft and just decided to extend Bernard. There really isn't a prototype of the "McD Dream" for Mike in the draft. I did a mock where I had Stutsman come to 132 so I kind of had to pull the trigger on the hopes his coverage shortcoming is experience and not ability based, because he's the one guy who has length and ranges sideline-to-sideline like Tremaine does, but will shed a blocker and fill a hole like Tremaine doesn't. Bernard can do both at an adequate level but is starting to show the toll it takes at his size. -
This was the Belichickian "trade all over the board" draft. BUF-TEN #30+177 -> #35+103 BUF-ATL #56+109 -> #46 BUF-ARI #62 -> #78+115 BUF-SF #115 -> #138+147 BUF-CLE #173 -> #192+200 2 DT 2 EDGE 2 CB, S, LB. We're fixing this thing one way or another.
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Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
I want to get back to this. Paul seems to be the body type who'd only backup the Will (Milano). Is Dorian Williams going to be backing up Bernard? A lot of the difficulty in the Bills' scheme is you need a Mike who can thump the run AND cover a zone, which is fine when you got Keuchley but you can't just plug in a long rangy guy who can run (see: Tremaine and my concerns about Stutsman) I'm all for shooting Bail Inspector into the sun and all, but I want to understand the need and the fit for Paul for my mocks, I see him at the top of the 4th pretty often but certainly don't see spending 109 on him. Just wondering if he's that much better than a guy like Bassa or Mondon later. I could understand as a set-up to release Milano for '26. -
I countered with 30+109. That's the value of 26. If you really need a that second and I don't like my options at 62, i'll think about 90, 101 and 127 and can throw you a 6th... i do like that range of the draft about 80-120.
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I suspect the Bills easily decline that one. 26 for 30+109 lines up much better for value (696 vs 700), why would the Bills be paying a draft chart premium of a mid-4th just as vigorish when you're the one making the phone call? Not to mention why are the Bills wanting to add another 6th when they already hold 4 selections 169-177. If the Bills have a guy they want (they might?) then there might be a deal to make, but it won't be those 2nd rounders in play for a 4 spot move...
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I'd go up as high as 21 for Harmon alone. It puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the draft, as the tier of CBs I like are pretty much always gone by 40, but if he's a guy who can bust the pocket from 1T it's an element that could really change the entire D. The trade I've been using in mocks to get to 21, it's pretty close on the Rich Hill chart: Bills #30 + 62 + 177 -> Pittsburgh #21 + 123 If Harmon goes top-20 the board usually breaks so that you'd want to trade down from 30 to the 35-40 range and get one of Hairston or Amos or if you have to, Thomas or Revel. Then if you can get to about 45 using 56 + whatever you picked up in the trade down you can try to get Landon Jackson or Nick Scourton, or Tuimoloau if you can't get that high. Or, get Alfred Collins at 56 and Swinson at 62, and there's a few interesting players at the bottom of day 2/top of day 3.
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With the 23rd pick in the TSW 2.0 Mock Draft the Cheez Bay Packers select Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College Our two big needs are getting after the quarterback and a burner to get down the field. We liked Golden and were not happy when he went off the board on a trade-up. We don't necessarily like the value/fit of other receivers at this position; the next tier plays more to our needs there. In Ezeiruaku we get a player who can bend around the edge and has shown great production... we've tried betting on traits (cough Van Ness) and that hasn't worked to form as of yet. The Vikings and Jack Klugman... I mean @quincy are on the clock.
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With the 21st Pick in the TSW 2.0 Mock Draft The Yinzborough Stillers select Shemar Stewart EDGE Texas A&M This is a boom-bust selection but our impact players on the D-Line are aging out. He has the size, length and play strength we covet and explosion to beat tackles off the edge. He can play anywhere along the line except nose; hand in the dirt on the end or as a standup Sam or Jack. The franchise has a track record of getting the most out of these toolsy prospects, and the book on Stewart is to value him according to how much you like your DL coaches. The Steelers are rolling the dice here on their ability to teach the Steeler way. @Doc Brown and the San Diego Chargers are up, and if they're in a different city just get yourself 1.21 gigawatts and fix it.
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Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
If you're a linebacker the size of a safety, you'd better run like a safety. 6' 220lb 30" arms and 4.63... maybe at #173 -
Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Small guy, doesn't run fast, t rex arms... it checks out. -
Bills Related Draft News & Discussion
Ralonzo replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Yeah, he's been my combine/Senior Bowl crush. He's a red-zone mismatch unit, but has long speed to go with it. I don't know how much he's been asked to do with route trees in Arkansas but he sure popped in the post-season events. Scourton was a good pick. Then he has the Bills passing on Tyleik Williams at #62 so the Chiefs can draft him at #63. And then it gets worse.