Ralonzo

Atlanta trades #43, #74, #109 for #28 and #128 to draft Penix?

Leggette is a real wildcard. Brugler has a 3rd on him, but with the caveat that if a team looks at his tape and sees DK Metcalf they might use a 1. Roman Wilson, I do like him, I just view him as a duplication of skills to Shakir in how you'd have to deploy him, i.e. mainly from the slot. The Bills already have the proven commodity there, that's not the hole on their WR corps. There's a scenario and I think it's likely where you get 5 or more WR getting tabbed before 28, in which case you'd likely have a QB or 2 (Penix, Nix) dropping to the bottom of Round 1, and there's incentive for a team to pack a few picks to jump up for 1) their QB and 2) the 5th year option in case the QB hits. Or, maybe there's an OT run and a team has just one guy left they are interested in and wants to lock it up. On the Rich Hill charts, the following teams are well positioned to offer proper value to move up to 28: 1) LV with #44, #77, #112 (there ain't a QB who's there at 13 who's worth it, but they're the Raiders, who knows) 2) ATL with #43, #74, #79, #109 (boy I'd love this one) 3) CAR with #33, #39, #65, #101 (if they don't believe in Bryce Young, and they shouldn't) 4) WAS with #36, #40, #67 and #78 (if they don't go QB at #2) 5) NE at #34 and #68 (if they go MHJ at #3) Atlanta makes a ton of sense if they see a QB they want at 28. The Bills swapping #28, #128 and #204 is a dead-nuts-on value match for #43, #74 and #109. Add in #60 and the Bills can chalk off 4 positions from among their needs: WR, S, Edge, DT, OT.

Relying on Sh-avers and Sh-orter Will send Bills fans into a fit They'll be there with pitchforks and torches With both of them playing like Sh-aving Cream Be nice and clean Shave every day and you'll always look keen

Curious to see which way Beane takes it: 1) overspend for one of the Big 4 who are highly likely to play X and be WR1, 2) think in terms of drafting a complementary pair for the Diggs and Davis roles. Guys like Mitchell and Leggette are wild cards who could be that WR1 but you're rolling the dice. Cap considerations dectate preservation of draft capital - filling roster holes with entry-level contracts who can contribute to a team with a top-3 QB in the league, i.e. the KC model. It's not enough to build a team just to beat the Chiefs anymore. Of course in a wonderful wonderful world Thomas slips to the 20s and the Bills make the move at a reasonable cost but I think they just can't sell the farm with their cap situation. So of the likely receivers of that tier, you're looking for the guy who can do Diggs things first - sharp routes, separation, and/or insane speed. Explosive guys who threaten at three-levels. Franklin, McConkey, Worthy, Tez Walker, Pearsall (his play metrics concern me tho... Franklin's are excellent). If you're not in love with one of them, someone should be in reach from 60 for a small move-up - or certainly in the mid-30's after a small move down from 28. From there your R4 and after guys who can be the X are Rice, Baker, Polk, McCaffrey even Wilson or Coleman if they drop to the R3/R4 range. There's probably PFA guys out of this group who'd have a chance out of this class. Being a degenerate mock drafter I've come around to the trade-down approach more often that not and found value to fill roster holes where if half of them hit, the Bills window stays open even this year. Difference makers come out of every round and every draft; even if Beane isn't hitting home runs he's been among the tops hitting singles and doubles, guys who can play in the league and help a team. That's what the Bills need out of their drafts now.

If Shorter spend the WHOLE year last year and this on the Juggs then maybe, he's not a natural hands catcher and lets the ball get to his body often hence the drops.

Keeda has to be broken, right?

Justin Eboigbe led the Alabama DL in tackles from the interior (that includes Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell), but has concerns from '22 neck injury and surgery. Seems like a Process guy, could be a good get in R5 or so.

Just for the heck of it. Let's say the Bills opt instead to move down from 28 (and 60 lol). What are some potential draft paths within this 7 round mock? Make some picks based on what's left on Brugler's board right around those spots, guessing who he might mock to Buffalo (we disregard the butterfly effect). [TRADE 1] Buffalo takes LV's offer to move up for Penix that Brugler mocks at 29, and gets 44 and 77 in return (which is a little light on the Raiders side - they get 209 Rich Hill value for 195) [TRADE 2] Then at 60, let's hope Tampa wants someone and would give up 89 and 92 (nearly perfect value match). Barring that I'd still be considering the OT. 1 (44). Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon - The Bills guy all along 3 (77). Kiran Amegadjie, OT, Yale - Gifted developmental T 3 (89). Austin Booker, Edge, Kansas - Rotational edge with upside of a future starter 3 (92). Malik Mustapha, S, Wake Forest - Great tackler for the Poyer role 4 (128). Mason McCormick, G, So. Dak. State - IOL mauler for Kromer to mold 4 (133). Gabe Hall, DL, Baylor - Depth for 3T or 5T 5 (144). Johnny Wilson, WR, Florida State - Big target at X, contested catch monster 5 (160). Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College - This is @GunnerBill's guy 5 (163). Jordan Magee, LB, Temple - Fits the Bills mold with speed and relentless pursuit 6 (200). Ryan Watts, CB/S, Texas - Length and ranginess, a bigger Cam Lewis? 6 (204). Cornelius Johnson, WR, Michigan - Tools of an X receiver 7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy - We'll give Brugler this one So which draft would you prefer, the trade up or the trade down? This might fit in with that Moneyball thread from yesterday too about the merits of tradnig up vs trading down.

Looks like PFN has updated the player rankings, and everyone is getting a drive on there with trade-downs, so... I gotta say, this draft seems pretty realistic, the biggest stretch is Mitchell dropping where he did but that's only because EVERYONE else got picked first. Oh, and Tennessee offered their '25 R1 to drop back 28 to 38, so... yeah I'm doing that. You know what number Jaylin is gonna get in camp, right?

Tell me you're a doctor working for the Bills without telling me you're a doctor working for the Bills.

I don't think L'ol Collins can be counted on to make the roster.

Rice Jr's scouting report sounds a bit like Gabe Davis. I'd take that on one of the Bills' 4th rounders. I don't think we want the Bills to use 28 AND 60 on the one position and I hope Beane learned that lesson, but right around there should be the range where a Rice or Javon Baker get tapped... maybe even Tez or Burton?

Seems like a convergence of interest there, if the Bills can get back a 3rd there should be a sweet spot to land a safety. I love the idea of a trade-back to the top of the 2nd to get an early 3rd, leveraging the value of the 5th year option on their 1st if they have several guys they'd be comfortable with for WR at that slot. It dawned on me doing mocks that the Bills 2nd (60OA) should still be a premium position addressed - WR, OT, CB, Edge. I keep having Travares Tillman flashbacks reaching for a safety. A guy who keeping dropping into that 60 range is Kingsley Suamataia for the reason that he's so young and raw that he may not be ready to start this year, but has a perfect opportunity to redshirt with the Bills behind Dawkins and Brown, and with Brown's contract coming up it's sensible to get a developmental guy this year. His athletic traits are as good as anyone, but the teams taking OT are taking them to start Day 1. It's suboptimal to spend that R2 on a guy who isn't playing this year, but the ceiling is sky-high and the position is as critical as anything non-QB. Getting a R3 in a trade-back makes that possible.

First shot trying out the ESPN simulator. Round 1, Pick 28 Brian Thomas Jr. LSU WR Rk: 24 - Lol no-brainer. A perfect start. *** TRADE *** #60 + #133 for #62 + #113 (BAL - JaLynn Polk + Jared Wiley) Round 2, Pick 62 Kingsley Suamataia BYU OT Rk: 44 - Felt 60 was too high for a Hicks or Bishop, so took the small trade down to improve an asset. - But then... there's Suamataia sitting at 62 at a premium position. Kinda gotta. Round 4, Pick 113 Austin Booker Kansas EDGE Rk: 112 - Traitsy underclassman at another premium position. High ceiling, lots of room for physical and technique development. Round 4, Pick 128 Tanor Bortolini Wisconsin C/G Rk: 122 - Another case of rare athleticism for an early enty at a pipeline position. Round 5, Pick 144 Dominique Hampton Washington CB/S Rk: 146 - Has the size and speed for big nickel, and ST applications ala Siran Neal. Round 5, Pick 160 Isaac Guerendo Louisville RB Rk: 153 - Explosive, blazing top-end speed can make one cut and head to the house. Round 5, Pick 163 Decamerion Richardson Miss. State CB Rk: 161 - Long and explosive, he's a projection here. Insofar as he compares to Elam, it's fine for #163OA. Round 6, Pick 200 Jordan Magee Temple ILB Rk: 167 - Fits the rangy and instinctive LB profile the Bills currently favor. Round 6, Pick 204 Myles Cole Texas Tech DE/DT Rk: 117 - He could be Groot or could be Boogie but this isn't much capital to invest to find out. Round 7, Pick 248 Malik Mustapha Wake Forest S Rk: 225 - This is a stupid ranking on the site, irl this probably never happens. Frankly I'm happy with him at 144 if need be.

Trading out of both 28 and 60 to yield 4 top-100 picks and a #2 next year, and let the board dictate the value. Legette at 51, great a true X. Opted for Tez over Bishop since both Bullock and Bishop were on the board, leaving plan B at 88. Maason Smith is a boom/bust proposition. From there we're looking for either a scheme fit (the corners) or explosive athletes (the rest). Theo Johnson at 160 was just irresistable. Would like both DT's to force themself on the roster but would settle for one. Would have liked to address OT a little higher but it's top heavy, and maybe edge but there's bigger problems to address first and every day 3 DE is a project anyway...

We're only moving 11 spots at Jax spot. I think even if it takes the 2025 R1, if the right guy is there, it's not a complete getting of future assets which the Bills will need to provide a flow of cap-control contributors. But I don't know it's that outrageously out of touch. One of the 3 of 2025 R1, Min R2 and Buf R2 could well get it done. My plan A in mind was likely moving down to the top of R2 for (not Byron) Franklin and picking up something in the 100 range. TBH I think I do prefer a small move down and a Franklin or McConkey to moving up for Odunze, but I was curious how things would fall. Wilson as a fifth I think is undervalued. I don't worry about his separation because his contested catch numbers are insane. Think he can be a Cris Carter level red zone weapon. C Johnson is probably more rightly slotted in 5th-6th round but high-ceiling for that area. Tykee is fine if you can't get the USC, Utah or other UGA kid, he's got range but the others seem more explosive and Beane is focused on that. Bortolini to me is great in his movement to the second level but is Morse-like in that his anchor isn't the best, light in the ass. Just think Kormer has a type and Limmer has greater pop at the point of attack. McCormick in that area is also an option. Jefferson would be a good get with either 160 or 163. Sometimes the guy you didn't expect to be there is there, it happens.

Second post-draft mock, and this time while I was sitting back with my trade-back philosophy a funny thing happened. A guy fell. And fell and fell. And finally it was all I could stands and I couldn't stands no more. *** TRADE *** From BUF: #28, 2025 R2 From JAX: #17 PICK: 17 RND: 1 (BUF from JAX) Rome ODUNZE WR Washington I would have thrown in a 4th too, but this bluff got through. You know who the guy is. *** TRADE *** From BUF: #60 From ARI: #66, #104 PICK: 66 RND: 3 (BUF) Kingsley SUAMATAIA OT BYU Getting an early 4th is key here and we get the guy we'd have taken at 60 anyway. PICK: 104 RND: 4 (BUF) Cole BISHOP S Utah Rangy and smart safety fits the next biggest need for the team. PICK: 128 RND: 4 (BUF) Beaux LIMMER C Arkansas I'm fine with McGovern and Anderson at C but the value here is excellent. Kromer will get the best 5 out there. PICK: 134 RND: 4 (BUF) Jarrian JONES CB Florida State Our zone corner, previously discussed. PICK: 144 RND: 5 (BUF) Johnny WILSON WR Florida State This is Tariq Woolen stuff where an off-the-range athlete drops for reasons unknown. PICK: 160 RND: 5 (BUF) Nehemiah PRITCHETT CB Auburn At this point I'm looking for Beane's "explosive" traits, his 10 and 40 splits speaks to elite recovery speed. PICK: 163 RND: 5 (BUF) Myles COLE DE-EDGE Texas Tech Our sleeper Groot, previously discussed. PICK: 200 RND: 6 (BUF) Jordan JEFFERSON DT LSU Again, explosiveness (4.70 at 313lb) and the value here is nuts. PICK: 204 RND: 6 (BUF) Ryan FLOURNOY WR Southeast Missouri State Later rinse repeat. High level suddenness and high end traits needing coaching. 3 X WRs? Sure why not. PICK: 248 RND: 7 (BUF) Trevin WALLACE LB Kentucky Prospect for ST can really move, profiles a bit like Dorian Williams in being short, yet long.

Seems like this board says it's time to get on the phone with Washington and try sending 60 and 134 for 67 and 100.

If the Bills weren't in the middle of a cap bloodbath and opening holes across the roster, go ahead and get that one piece. 2024/25 is no longer the time to light up Day 1/2 draft capital, they need to acquire it.

Odd that you mention Denver and Nix. I had a mock where I went the other direction - trading down from 28 to 35 with Denver who also added 71 and 226 in order to draft Nix. A subsequent trade down with Washington from 60 for 67 + 100 yielded the possibility of drafting the following players: #35 Ad Mitchell WR #67 Kingsley Suamataia T #71 Ricky Pearsall/Devontez Walker WR #100 Calen Bullock S It's up to Beane to decide whether something like this is superior to leveraging the capital for one slam dunk player in the first half of R1, or an established threat who'll need a payday soon, but don't panic if nothing happens before #28 is on the clock. Day 2 tackles and receivers in this draft, some of them would go R1 in other years I'm sure.

Yeah, it's a tough call, but while Thomas has been rocketing up it's really one year of production - although being that productive with Nabers on the other side is not nothing. For me it's not a lead pipe cinch that he'd be so much better than Conk or Mitchell. If your review of tape indicates that, then I'll accept that, I'm sure I haven't watched nearly as much. The later round guys I'm looking for undervalued athletes with traits. And guys who show up in the "best available" menu on the mock draft site lol. There's a few different ways to go as you said, like Bortolini over McCormick but he's more of a dancer than the Kromer vision of nasty maulers. TBH the Washington kid at T (Rosengarten?) had also dropped into that range but I'm happy with Van Demark at swing and just had Sumaiata fall into my lap so where does he make the roster? I'm tantalized by the Tech guys metrics, if they can be had where they are gotten in this mock. The one guy on Day 3 who wasn't that traitsy profile was the FSU CB Jones, who iirc you were also looking at in this range?

I've come around to this kind of thinking. If it was a draft where there were maybe 5 guys who could a) contribute this year and b) with WR1 upside then the move up to get one makes sense. But it's the historic depth in this draft at WR that lets you take swings on Day 2 and Day 3 and some of those guys will be big time stars in this league. I'm feeling like this might be Beane's angle on it as well. After going through a couple mocks, the board keeps steering me in that direction, and picking up extra pick(s) in the 60-100 range is key to filling the losses of the cap reset now underway.

First crack at a post-Diggs draft which means the Bills are drafting at least 2 WRs... maybe even 3. Let's go. *** trade *** From BUF: #28 To BUF: #35, #71, #226 Why: Arizona moves up for Bo Nix offering 2024 capital which we really need. With Mitchell, Thomas and McConkey still on the board, we're gambling one lasts to 35. If Beane loves one he takes him here probably, but 71 is right in a golden zone in this draft to fill roster holes with '24 contributors. PICK: 35 RND: 2 (BUF) Adonai MITCHELL WR Texas And one does make to to #35. Phew. *** trade *** From BUF: #60 To BUF: #67, #100, 2025 7th Why: There's a lot to choose from here at premium positions like Edge (Solomon, Kamara) and Tackle (Sumaiata, Amegadjie). The draft really seems to fall off around 100 to 110 so adding a pick in that range could pay off big. PICK: 67 RND: 3 (BUF) Kingsley SUAMATAIA OT BYU The Mailata contract (and the Jason Peters history) shows the value of a freak athlete at tackle. Insurance against loss of Brown in '25, and entering as a Sophomore at age 21 gives him a lot of runway for devlopment. PICK: 71 RND: 3 (BUF) Ricky PEARSALL WR Florida Mitchell is the X with WR1 upside, this is a guy to help Shakir take up Diggs slack as a chain-mover. Could have gone for Devontez Walker here to bring in another X with WR1 potential, and maybe should have with Shakir and Samuel in the fold? Eh, whatever, I clicked it, I own it. PICK: 100 RND: 3 (BUF) Calen BULLOCK S USC Didn't expect this guy to be available at this spot. A rangy ball-hawk with room for physical development and an early declare as well, he ticks all the boxes for OBD at this point in the draft. PICK: 128 RND: 4 (BUF) Isaac GUERENDO RB Louisville Solomon and Kamara are still on the board (prefer Kamara) but the home run hitter at this point in the draft just can't be ignored. PICK: 134 RND: 4 (BUF) Jarrian JONES CB Florida State Baltimore takes Kamara because of course they do, but I got a guy I'm looking for in the 5th or 6th round at edge. We've talked in previous mocks about what a scheme-fit Jones seems to be, I keep coming back to him in this range. PICK: 144 RND: 5 (BUF) Mason MCCORMICK OT South Dakota State Super-athletic development prospect for IOL positions. PICK: 160 RND: 5 (BUF) Jordan JEFFERSON DT LSU Super-athletic development prospect for IDL positions. PICK: 163 RND: 5 (BUF) Myles COLE DE-EDGE Texas Tech Here's my guy. The first of the Texas Tech freaks, another Groot at 6'6" 278 and laying it down in sub-4.7. PICK: 200 RND: 6 (BUF) M.J. DEVONSHIRE CB Pittsburgh A late-round zone corner from Pitt? That trick always works. PICK: 204 RND: 6 (BUF) Curtis JACOBS LB Penn State Early entry from Linebacker U, at worst shoud be a core ST guy. PICK: 226 RND: 7 (BUF) Tyler OWENS S Texas Tech An absolute burner (4.3) with very limited college experience will need coached up, and that's what McDermott is for. PICK: 248 RND: 7 (BUF) Bub MEANS WR Pittsburgh Solid value here. A thick athlete at 6'1" 212 with long arms, big hands and elite short-area metrics, but will need to learn pro-style route running, which is why a Malachi Corley with a very similar physical profile goes in round 2 and not here.

Interesting take from anonymous Front-office guy in the Athletic today Also lol’d at this one regarding Dak from GM Mack A. Velli: