RoscoeParrish

A little bit more than head butting https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45769802/ex-nflpa-boss-lloyd-howell-strip-club-expenses-sent-investigator “Former NFL Players Association leader Lloyd Howell Jr. resigned after an outside investigator hired by the union received documents this week showing Howell charged the union for two visits to strip clubs, including a $738.82 car service that took him from the airport to one of the clubs”

To go from 100 targets (roughly 6.6 per game based on his 2024 pace) to 150 targets (8.8 per game) you are talking a little over 2 extra targets per game. In order to manufacture those targets, imo, some of them would NEED to be more around the line of scrimmage. You aren’t dialing up 2 intermediate targets a game extra. Efficiency and ADOT would continue to drop. We just saw how much his efficiency dropped going from 45 to 100. Another 50 would continue to drop it imo. You say it’s factored in but I don’t think so. To get Shakir that level of volume, you are going dial up more manufactured stuff by definition. Did anyone predict his ADOT was gonna get cut in half after 2023? I doubt it. But it’s very telling to me that his OC did that in order to get him 100 targets. You are basically arguing that his 2024 usage is his baseline usage because it was. It’s circular logic. You could’ve said something similar after 2023. Assuming a little statistical drop off because his efficiency stats were bonkers, his target distribution should’ve remained relatively similar going from 2023 to 2024 and his ADOT should have never been cut in half. Unfortunately, we now have another year of evidence that that’s not how it works. In order to get his targets up, we DID have to use him more around the LoS, we DID have to manufacture a lot of touches, and it DID harm his efficiency. See above. I don’t want to do a lot of heavy back on forth on this any further because it’s too much math. But I do want to address the bolded because I think it’s the crux of the matter. I think you see Shakir a lot differently than me. But I also think you see the top 30 WRs in the NFL a lot differently too. Almost all of those guys, DON’T max out. The 30th WR in the NFL in receiving yards last year was Tyreek Hill. His offense wants to give him MORE targets, not less. The Bears want to get the ball to DJ Moore who was 29th in yards MORE, not less. I see Shakir as exactly who he is has been. His value add is at its best when he is maxing it probably between 60-80 targets and is very efficient on those targets. There are not a lot of top 30 WRs that you want hitting that target load. Most of them, you want them getting anywhere from 120-140 targets. And that’s the difference between being a #1 and a #2 to me. I want the #1 to get the ball all the time. I want a Diggs to get 150 targets. And if Shakir gets 60 or 80 along the way, that’s great and valuable too. So to me, there’s no chance that Shakir is top 30. His intangibles are great, but I think he’s at his best with only a moderate load of targets. And that puts him in a different class than the top 30. Ultimately, I see Shakir as maxing out as a 600-800 yard per year guy for his career. I don’t think 2024 was his efficiency floor, but I think there’s a very good chance that his career total averages never eclipses what he did in 2024. And I think finding the sweet spot of getting enough targets to be both MORE productive than 2024 and MORE efficient than 2024 is next to impossible. If Shakir retires from the NFL in 10 years, his career averages will likely be like 50 catches, 710 yards, and a handful of TDs. Thats not nothing and that’s still quite valuable mixed with some good traits but that’s not more valuable than the top 30 or so WRs.

Not all of them would be, but some of them would have to be to get him to 150. He got some last year and it cut his ADOT in half. In half! Do you think that an extra one or two a game would not decrease his ADOT even further? I think it would. That’s purely my opinion, but imo, I think there’s no way that Shakir gets to 150 targets without a lower ADOT than 2024. I’m trying to talk about the type of player Shakir has shown to be, especially as a focal point. There are certain realities I think we have to accept. Shakir has great wiggle and great RAC ability, and very good hands. He is a slot guy that cannot play on the boundary. There is a harder ceiling on those guys. His own offensive coaches thought the best use of his talents was to get the ball in his hands in a myriad of different ways and it worked. He had a career year in everything, despite taking a dip in efficiency. I don’t think that’s disrespectful to Shakir. I kinda think you are taking both angles on this. You are saying that it would be helpful if he had another WR to take some of the load off. That’s true. the corollary to that is that he had basically no competition for target share last year either. What do you mean by “true” efficiency? Do I think if we had another awesome WR option, and Shakir got 80 targets instead of 100, his efficiency would be in between 2023 and 2024, maybe even pretty close to 2023? I do. But I think that kinda proves that he isn’t really a focal point guy. Wes Welker was one of the greatest slots of all time, agreed? He had a career yards per target of 7.8. I don’t think it’s a slap in the face to suggest Shakir’s true efficiency floor is in that ballpark. We are talking about a guy who on decent volume had an 800 yard season. Just to put that in perspective for you. He’s very fun to watch and I’m glad he’s a Bill.

Sorry maybe I misunderstood. 2024 is his floor in what? Efficiency on higher volume? I don’t agree. I think if we tried to give him an extra 50 targets a year, which by definition would include tons of bubble screens and other manufactured targets etc, his efficiency would continue to decline. Would it get below 7 yards per target? Probably not because he’s still a good player. 130-150 targets in a season for Shakir to clear 1000 yards feels right.

This is the definition of manufacturing touches though. That’s how you get him to 76 balls in a season. You have to get creative with how to use him. You can’t say, “we will take 2023 Shakir and only use the 2023 Shakir plays and just call them 55 more times.” You see this a lot with guys like him. Curtis Samuel, who isn’t the caliber of player as Shakir, had his ADOT and his touches change dramatically in Carolina with Brady. Samuel had 105 targets with 54 catches in 2019. An ADOT of 14.6. In 2020, Brady took over and changed his role entirely. He saw his ADOT drop in half. Got a similar amount of targets and ended up with a career year in catches, yards, YAC, etc etc. I think the moral of the story is if you want 2023 elite efficiency Shakir, you have to use him in 2023 ways at lower volume. And as awesome as his efficiency stats were, his totals will suffer used sporadically. He’s more value to these Bills at higher volume with lower efficiency. But I don’t think he’s ever gonna combine 2024 volume with 2023 efficiency. And if his volume continues to increase, which imo means MORE balls behind the LoS and more short stuff, his efficiency will imo continue to drop. Maybe not as much of a drop as 2024 because there is an obvious floor. Julian Edelman’s yards per touch his 4 most targeted seasons were all below his career averages. Not dramatically so, but that’s what they were.

First of all, why so hostile? Sheesh. second of all, the bolded him here in the post you responded to was referring to JJ or Chase. If we had JJ or Chase, instead of Shakir, we wouldn’t be using them in the same way as Shakir. We would run a different offense. There’s really no reason to get so angry.

Haven’t we basically only played road playoff games vs the Chiefs? Texans in 2019 I guess was road too but that was a different Josh. I’m not sure how worried I am about going into Baltimore. McD has never lost to Baltimore in the playoffs and has basically outcoached them defensively every time. I think the pressure is on Baltimore in that situation honestly.

If the 25% stat is true, that makes the Bills worse than average.

Only sad thing is the Chiefs at Chargers is a neutral site. think that’s the Brazil game.

I said JJ wouldn’t be used in the slot like Shakir is now. You are agreeing with me. we would run a completely different offense if we had Justin Jefferson instead of Shakir.

The problem is that there has to be real stakes. A lot of the drought era busts are hated because we needed a savior. the fact of the matter is that we were a divisional/conference championship team before and after Von. It sucked he got hurt and it was largely a waste of money, but nothing really changed with or without him.

I feel like I was pretty clear that the talent in NE dictated their scheme and offensive focus. They famously were the greatest offense in the NFL when they had a great HoF boundary WR. Then they famously ran twin TE sets more than any other team in the league when they had 2 great TEs. Then they famously ran an offensive that primarily featured a slot WR in Welker or Edelman when they had great slot WRs. I disagree with your assessment that they “learned a lesson” about Randy Moss because they performed poorly in the Super Bowl that one time. They changed their offenses primarily based on the talent available, as teams with good coaching do. It’s not a coincidence that KC went more horizontal after they lost Tyreek Hill. They weren’t gonna keep chucking deep bombs to Justin Watson. That doesn’t mean Tyreek wasn’t valuable to them or what they were doing.

That’s a great example. We ran a completely different offense in 2020 than 2024, right? We had an awesome boundary WR and awesome slot WR. We ran a high-low offense, utilizing the best of both players. But if you recall, Beasley never really challenged Diggs in target share or overall production. Now, in 2024, without a Diggs on the boundary, we run a MUCH different offense, with far more emphasis on the slot. In 2020, Beasley got 18% of the targets. In 2024, Shakir got 25% of the targets. So like I said, if we had JJ, we wouldn’t be running Jefferson in the slot almost exclusively like we do with Shakir now. We would be using Shakir in the slot and Jefferson everywhere else. The talent dictates the scheme.

The Pats made plenty of attempts to draft or acquire boundary WRs at cheap prices, just like Moss (who they got for a song if I remember correctly) They brought in Chad Johnson in 2011. They signed Reggie Wayne in 2015. They drafted lots. Kenbrell Thompkins. Malcolm Mitchell. Aaron Dobson. The real difference was that all those guys stunk in those spots (Reggie retired) and their slot guys performed at a high level. Like I said earlier, I think you are mixing up cause and effect. Do these teams, the Pats post-Moss, the Chiefs post-Tyreek and the Bills post-Diggs build their teams around their slots or TEs because their slots/TEs are just that good, or because their boundary options stink, relatively speaking? Or at the very least, a combination of both? Furthermore, Chris Hogan was a boundary WR in NE. Just because he was white didn’t make him a slot guy. And he set a WR record in the playoffs for the Pats if I recall. I watched as many of the games as I could.

Desperate? You said they learned a lesson with Moss. I don’t think that’s correct. You said they become unstoppable after switching to a slot offense. That’s wrong too. They went to another Super Bowl and lost with an elite slot offense in 2011. They also didn’t make another SB after that until 2014. Yes, there are obvious benefits and drawbacks to being a deep ball high flying offense vs a ball control, chain moving offense. All that being said, the 2007 Patriots were still an all time great team with an all time great offense because, in large part, of Randy Moss. I stand by what I said and I didn’t make anything up. I’d like you to point out examples of things you think I did make up because that’s a pretty unproductive accusation in a discussion.

Randy departed from the Pats after 2009. They didn’t win a Super Bowl until half a decade later. They became unstoppable after losing Moss? They lost the Super Bowl in 2011 against the same team with elite slot guy Wes Welker putting up elite slot numbers and a completely different offense. I think you tried too hard to prove something with the “they learned their lesson with Randy Moss” take.

He’s not “one of the main targets” in Buffalo. He is THE main target. He got 25% of the teams’ targets. Led the team by a significant margin, despite missing time, with a very special QB If the 25th WR in yards last year, DK Metcalf, woke up on this team or ANY TEAM with Shakir tomorrow, do we think Shakir’s target share goes up or down? Do we think Shakir’s yards go up or down? The answer to me is frankly obvious. I personally believe Shakir is maxed out. If Keon Coleman becomes the WR1 X that we all want him too, Shakir’s numbers will get worse.

You said they learned their lesson because Randy doesn’t have a ring and Edelman has 3. As if the 2007 Patriots wasn’t an all time offense and an all-time team, and the 2018 Patriots wasn’t one of the worst Super Bowl winners ever. So I asked the obvious question. Yes, situation matters. No, the Patriots didn’t lose the 2007 Super Bowl after going undefeated because their wide receivers were just too good. There was no lesson to learn.

I’m just not sure you are grasping what we are saying. Yes, if you increase a players targets, that would increase their production. That reigns true for every single WR. But the situation equation flips both ways. And I would argue the 2024 team may have been one of the best situations in the NFL for Khalil Shakir. So in a worse situation, of which there are MANY, for MANY reasons, he may be a 500-600 yard guy. There’s a reason him and his agent took Darnell Mooney this offseason and it’s not because he’s in a different class of receiver. Do you think they lost the Super Bowl after going 18-0 because of Randy Moss?

The counter to the “situation” argument is that Shakir was the #1 WR by a mile on an offense QBed by the MVP and future Hall of Famer. He got 100 targets by a superstar elite QB. Thats probably a better situation than Darnell Mooney’s 100 targets by Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix, right?

Why? He’s a WR. So is Jamar Chase. Part of the reason why Chase is more valuable is because he doesn’t have to play exclusively in the slot. It’s like saying we can’t compare Rousseau to Myles Garrett because Rousseau is more of an edge setter than pass rusher.

Thurman’s star doesn’t shine as bright because they didn’t win. Winning matters, a lot. It’s the point of the sport. But I also think that Emmitt’s doesn’t shine as bright as Barry’s anymore. Even though he did win. And part of that is because the most respected/remembered RBs are the ones that were one-man offenses. The most fondly remembered RB from the 2000s-2010s is going to be Adrian Peterson. And in large part, that will be because he was dragging those crummy Vikings teams to the playoffs. Those Cowboys and Bills teams were stacked. Too much credit to go around. So when you have a great HoF back who never won, also on an offense with a ton of HoF talent, that’s gonna work against the way folks remember you.

No way that’s real

These marquee guys just don’t hit FA anymore

The problem with this line of thinking is cause and effect. The Pats ran their slot offense when their best weapon was a slot. They also ran a bombs away offense when they had Randy Moss. I love Shakir, but if we had JJ or Chase instead, I don’t think we are using him the same way exclusively.