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Einstein

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Posts posted by Einstein

  1. 4 hours ago, Einstein said:

     

    If it’s a troll account, then it’s one of the best guesses i’ve ever seen. Not just the team Diggs went to but ALSO the compensation. The odds of that guess are infinitesimal.


    Just had time to sit down and calculate this.

     

    So there are obviously 31 other NFL teams to which Diggs could potentially be traded. And each team has more or less a draft pick for each round, so lets assume 7 draft picks each. That's a total of 217 draft picks (31 teams * 7 picks each). 

     

    1/31 * 1/217 (due to not knowing which teams draft pick) = 0.00014865467 

    So that tweeter correctly guessing the right team and right round of the draft pick has a probability of 0.0149%.

    Or if we assume they guess the right team first and then just have to guess the draft pick we have 1/31 * 1/7 = 0.00460829493 or 0.461%.

    image.thumb.png.1f214df76ae0630961debb4f5606fc77.png

    • Like (+1) 1
  2. Just now, TheWeatherMan said:

    You paraphrased the living hell out of the real tweet. 


    I'm not sure if you're saying I did a good job or a bad job haha. If it's the latter, please feel free to correct me. I did my best to give a summary.

  3. 6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

    I don't pay attention 24/7 during the off season gossip so I have no idea what was or not said yesterday


    Twitter: Is Stefon Diggs the reason for Josh Allen's success?

    Random person replies: Diggs is great, but he is not the only reason for Allen's success.

    Diggs replies: You sure about that?

    If that is the type of stuff he will say in public, I cant imagine how he acts behind closed doors. You dont throw your QB under the bus like that.

    • Like (+1) 9
    • Agree 4
    • Thank you (+1) 4
  4. 41 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:


    I’m sorry if I hurt your feelings.  Honestly.
     

    You seemed to be rather like Spock in being very logical and dispassionate, except you would throw out a crack about the org chart and condescending statistical nonsense, so I figured you were up for some ribbing.  


    If anything I said was hurtful, I apologize. Apparently I took it too far and I’m sorry about that. 
     

    I do like you Einstein. You bring a fun element to the board and its posters like you that make this a fun place to waste time. 
     

    I appreciate you. 

     

    Thank you. I appreciate that nice post.

     

    As for the org chart, I often fail at humor. Things I find funny, most don’t. It’s a flaw of mine.

     

    And then sometimes i’ll post or say something that people find hilarious and i’ll spend 20 minutes analyzing it, trying to figure out what I said that was funny. Go figure!

     

    For the record I found the image of the equation jumbles you posted quite humorous. I don’t mind ribbing as long as I know that it’s not meant to insult.

  5. 29 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

     

    The fact you conflate explanations with defending proves the persecution complex going on here. 

     

     

    Oh, you were “explaining” all this time while you were mocking me with equation talk and memes and images. Now I understand. 

     

    Youre not explaining anything. You’re defending to n’th degree and if that means you have to ridicule someone, so be it.

  6. 11 minutes ago, GottaRun said:


    If your only focus is profit and loss then your take is fine.  Some of us want to be there for the first season the stadium is open, and that has value to us. 

     

    You don't have unlimited years to live your life, two or three years sitting at home are two or three years you're not watching Bills games live.  If Bills games live are a  persons favorite thing in life why would they skip that for the cost of a few bucks extra every game? (PSL spread out over several years)

     

    That’s an absolutely fair take to have.

    I respect it.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Awesome! (+1) 1
  7. 2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

     

    I admit I was surprised by the trade. 
     

    I stand by my take that @JohnCMark_  is a troll account

     

    If it’s a troll account, then it’s one of the best guesses i’ve ever seen. Not just the team Diggs went to but ALSO the compensation. The odds of that guess are infinitesimal.

    13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

     

    Um, that was a lot less cryptic than many of his other messages.  It reads more like "you're about to do that experiment" vs. his earlier stuff.

     

    only because you know the result.

     

    many of his cryptic comments were similar in severity, but many posters excused those comments away for various reasons. We even had posters trying to excuse away his comment from yesterday that you’re talking about.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 1
  8. 1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

    Of course there is “ inequity”. That shouldn’t be a surprise. 


    Again, no one that I have seen is really "surprised". We are simply talking about the reality of the situation now that it is officially here (we have the official numbers for some sections).

    While we do that, many posters are making it their job to defend, defend, defend the Bills. That's not simply discussing the reality. That's Rationalization with a dash of Stockholm. These posters have a compulsion to defend.

    • Like (+1) 1
  9. Just now, FireChans said:

    What?


    You may have missed it (I did too), but yesterday Diggs essentially inferred that Allen's success was due to him.

    Someone tweeted that Diggs is a good receiver but Allen's success was not "essential" to have Diggs.

    Diggs responded "You sure?"

    • Like (+1) 1
  10. Just now, Boatdrinks said:

    Coping with what ? The Bills not leaving for greener pastures in some other city ? The NFL changed dramatically decades ago and that’s just reality.

     

    There are several ways people deal with adversity. Some people fight back. Some people disengage. And some people cope with it by rationalizing. "Yeah, they're charging a lot of money. But that's the business. The NFL has changed. We must understand. etc"

    Rationalization is a defense mechanism in which controversial situations are justified and explained in a seemingly rational or logical manner to avoid the true explanation, and thereby make them appear less threatening. Some people will rationalize the PSL's which double dip on taxpayers by attributing them to broader, understandable business practices and changes within the NFL, suggesting that such changes are inevitable and should be accepted.

    There is a bit of stockholm syndrome mixed in.

     

    Just now, Boatdrinks said:

     

    Those who seem shocked , stunned , surprised etc


    I haven't seen anyone in this thread who is shocked, stunned or surprise. Everyone knew it was coming. Some are pointing out the inequity in it. Thats not a sign of being surprised - its a sign of evaluating the situation for what it is. 

    • Like (+1) 2
  11. 27 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

    The worst part is how some of you are ok with it as long the Bills stay in Buffalo. 

     

    The general attitude I see in this thread is “We all knew it was coming, it’s what is common in the NFL, therefore it is okay.”

     

    I, like you, don’t understand those feelings. But everyone is different and its a coping strategy on their part and people have to do what they have to do to get on.

     

    Let them buy them first, and then scoop them up for pennys on the dollar in a few years.

     

    • Haha (+1) 1
  12. 1 minute ago, Billl said:

    I think the timeline is backwards here. Diggs was basically saying “you’re about to find out what Josh looks like without a number 1”.

     

    Diggs must have forgotten the last half of last season, where Allen played without a #1 WR because Diggs was stinking up the joint.

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Agree 1
  13. This morning…

     

    ———-

     

    RG3: Is Diggs essential to Josh Allen’s success?

     

    Random tweeter responds to RG3: Diggs helped, but he is not essential to Allen’s success.


    Diggs response: You sure?

     

    ———-

     

    And yet fans still think Diggs wasn’t giving cryptic messages 🤦🏻‍♂️

    • Agree 1
  14. 3 hours ago, papazoid said:

     

    #1 - what happens to the STH who keeps his seats for the full 30 years of the PSL's life. what is the PSL worth to them after 30 years. i'd say zero ? maybe the right to purchase the next PSL for stadium renovations ?

     

    #2- what happens to the STH who sells after 20 years ? doesn't the new owner only transfer over the remaining 10 years. what's that worth ? probably less than the original initial fee

     

    #1 - Yes, it would be zero.

     

    #2 - I ran the math on this earlier. PSL value will be approximately 1/4 of what owners paid within 5 years of ownership. This could potentially change if the team wins a SB the year before you sell your tickets, but you would need that luck to cause a temporary spike.

  15. 2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

    You are correct for the data we have there is a margin of error and it is correct - if nothing changes - yes we could expect the same 75% across the new stadium.

     

    There it is!

     

    That was my entire point with my predictive model. Kirby and Wot were disputing the facts of what you just admitted it. It is simply maths.

     

    As for your point that lower PSL’s will encourage more buying - we’ll, I’ve already written several posts on why I don’t see that happening, so I don’t want to spam the forum with information on elasticity.

     

    The idea was never that the stadium wouldn’t be full. The Bills will MAKE SURE it’s full.

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