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GASabresIUFan

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Everything posted by GASabresIUFan

  1. I had Jones making the squad in most of my projections, but then I realized today that his dead cap was zero if cut while Morrow’s was 750K. That zero dead cap made Jones expendable if he didn’t dominate in camp, which he didn’t. It will be interesting to see if he becomes one of the 6 vets they sign to the PS. One other note about Andreessen vs Ulofoshio. Andreessen’s dead cap if cut is $2500, while Ulofoshio’s is 314K. The Bills are pinching pennies this year. If someone isn’t head and shoulders above another depth player, the Bills are probably cutting the guy with the smallest dead cap.
  2. A team can bring back 8 players from IR during the season. The new rules allow for two of the 8 to be designated before Tuesday. Right now it looks like we have at least candidates in Milano (assuming management thinks his injury isn’t season ending), Trubisky and Morris. If they want all 3 on IR to start the season, they are going to need Ferguson’s roster spot.
  3. I was looking at the dead cap on some of the bubble players. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/overview/_/year/2024 I wonder how much this will play into the decision making. (Dead cap in "(DC)" For example - Linebacker - There are 5 guys competing for 3 or 4 jobs. The are Morrow (750K), D Jones (zero), Ulofoshio (314K), Spector (52K) and Andreessen ($2500). Could they cut Jones to save the 750K dead cap if Morrow is cut? What about OL? I think we all agree that the top 9 are set in stone - Brown, Dawkins, Torrence, Edwards, McGovern, Anderson, Van Denmark, SVPG and Grable. Will they keep Collins as the 10th OL to save his 1.5 million dead cap and release Clapp (287.5K) or will they say F-it and take the nearly 1.8 mill dead cap hit and cut both? WR - Shorter (243K) vs Shavers (9k) vs Hamler (zero)? DE - Jonathan (1.75K). Such a low dead cap hit, I can see them cutting him if they think they can get him to the PS. Two guys with surprisingly large dead cap Gore (90k) and Britton (G) (100K). Dead cap for guys who will almost certainly be cut - Toohill (15k), Keaton Bills (50K), Couch (70K), Lovely (15K), Cline (9k), Davidson (4.5K), Ankou (7.5K), Isabella (8K), K. Jackson (zero), and McKitty (4K). One guy who should be cut but won't be is Trubisky (1.5 million). FYI Ferguson (LS) has only a $2500 dead cap. I makes sense for him to get cut and then re-signed so that they can get an injured player on the 53 and then put that player on IR to reopen Ferguson's roster spot.
  4. The final pre-season game is in the books. Cut down day is Tuesday. Given what you saw today, who is in and who is out Specialists (4) - Martin, Bass, Ferguson, Hardy(KR/CB) - I can see Ferguson being cut and then re-signed once someone is put on IR Offense (23) QB (2) - Allen - Not sure if anyone else has earned a job. Trubisky is also hurt RB/FB (4) - Cook, Davis, Johnson, Gilliam (FB/ST) - PS Gore (he certainly helped his cause today) WR (5) - Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Hollins, MVS - PS Shavers and Hamler. Did Hamler's play at RB today up his value? TE (3) - Kincaid & Knox - Bubble Morris (injury), Davidson, McKitty - Davidson can catch the ball, can they get him to the PS. McKitty is more a blocker than Davidson. If Morris is hurt we could see McKitty make the initial roster for his blocking and ST play OL (9) - Brown, Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, Dawkins + Van Denmark, Anderson, SVPG and Grable - Not sure what they do with Clapp and Collins Defense (26) DE (6) - Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Smoot + Solomon and Jonathan DT (4) - Oliver, Jones, A Johnson, Carter. Cut - D. Williams (limited PT could indicate he is in consideration for the 53 man roster) LB (6) - Williams, Benard, D Jones, Ulofoshio, Spector (IR?), Bubble: Spector, Morrow and Andreessen - I think Andreessen makes it. He played ok today and plays ST. Bills have carried 6 LBs in recent year as Matakevich has played primarily on ST - Andreessen may inherit that role this season. CB (5) - Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam and Ingram (plus Hardy as CB6/KR & Lewis CB/S/ST). S (5) - Rapp, Hamlin, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis - Bubble K Jackson Thoughts?
  5. Who is the Target version of Deebo Samuel.
  6. As long as Shakir, Samuel, Coleman and Hollins are healthy MVS isn’t dressing.
  7. I don’t mean to pick on you, but I’m honestly sick of everyone saying we need to fix our perceived issues at WR by acquiring someone from another organization. Honestly that’s all Beane has done for most part except Davis. Diggs, Saunders, Crowder, Brown, Beasley, Samuel, McKenzie, Sherfield Hollins, MVS, Harty etc… Sometimes it worked great (Diggs, Beasley) and sometimes it didn’t, but it’s not a sustainable team building model. Just look at how hard it's been during this camp to get quality WR depth when you’re hiring castoffs from other organizations. Investing and developing our own skill players has been long overdue. It saves significant cap space and helps the team grow together. Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, and Coleman have all been drafted in the last 3 years and our team is the better for it. Coleman is actually the 1st top 64 pick Beane has used on a WR during his tenure.I just wish Beane had drafted a 2nd WR in this past draft. More to the point, it's time to give Shakir his shot at being the top WR threat. His numbers last year, his first year really utilized in the offense, is very reminiscent of Diggs’s rookie season, except Shakir caught everything thrown his way and was more explosive. Shakir 39/45 611 15.7 2TDs 86.7% Success% 73.3% Diggs 52/84 720 13.8 4TDs 61.9% Success% 46.6% We don’t need Aiyuk, or Dotson or ________ . We need to continue the draft and develop path. I look at GB and love what they are building with Love at QB. In 2022 & 2023 they drafted 4 WRs and 2 TEs; some with premium picks and some with middle round picks, but all given an opportunity and all are contributing. It past time we did the same and Cook, Shakir, Coleman and Kincaid are a very good start, but they are not enough.
  8. Looks like gambling sites have found a new way to separate NYC geniuses from their money. How much are the Jets really worth when Rodgers gets injured again?
  9. The good team that stays the healthiest during the season. Hopefully the Bills are getting their injuries out of the way now.
  10. The guy has played 75 NFL games including 28 starters. I know he is just learning our scheme, but it can't be that different than what he's played before.
  11. Given the Bills injury situation, I doubt anyone is getting traded, but it's possible. Jonathan and Clapp seem the most likely candidates. We may acquire someone in trade, but I don't see anyone going out in trade. Areas to watch 1) QB - Trubisky to IR, someone else to PS and then that player activated as the week 1 backup. I can see a wavier claim or trade acquisition here. 2) WR - Shavers and/or Hamler to the PS if management thinks Samuel and MVS are ready for week 1 3) TE - Morris looks headed to IR - Davidson could make the roster 4) OL - I think they go with 9. Clapp to the PS and Collins Cut. If they keep 10, Clapp makes the team. This is the one player I can see having trade value 5) DE - If they keep only 5 Jonathan to the PS. My guess is they keep 6 and only 4 DTs. 6) DT - D Williams is the odd man out. Not sure he has any trade value 7) LB - I think they could keep 6. Ulofoshio to IR for the season (like Shorter last year). Milano as well. Andreessen makes the squad 8.) CB - I think they keep 6 with Ingram and Hardy making the team (Lewis makes it as a safety) 9) S - Jackson to the PS -
  12. "Why is this board so negative?" Because Buffalo!
  13. 2 because someone has to backup Allen in week 1. I’m just not sure that player is currently on the roster.
  14. Probably. He wasn’t going to dress anyway.
  15. If Shakir equals Diggs’ production with 70 less targets, that a huge win for the Bills. Comparing Kincaid to Davis is a mistake. Completely different players playing different positions. I also project Kincaid to get at 33% more to touches than last year. The truth is we don’t need the receivers and RBs to produce more as a group than what they produced last year. Our top 5 pass catchers last year caught passes for 3658 yards. I don’t see why our top 5 pass catchers can’t exceed that number. If Shakir catches 80 balls and keeps close to last year’s 15.7 yards per catch, that 1200 yards. Kincaid should see 33 to 40% more balls which should get him to 1000 yards. Cook is good for at least the 450 he had last year. Samuel averaged over 625 yards the last 2 season with Sam Howell throwing him the ball. He should see 90+ targets in the new offense. He caught about 70% of his targets in Washington’s offense. Last time Samuel played for Brady he caught 80% of his targets and he produced 1000 yards for offense. If he can get to 750 yards that would be a solid result as the Bills 3rd receiving options. Davis had 600 yards as a rookie. Coleman is a better player, and his number should be at least that good. All told that’s 4000 yards from our top 5 options with better depth options than last year. A finally healthy Knox should be better than last year and more involved in the offense. Hollins and Davis are significant upgrades Harty and Murray. Those 3 gave us 450 yards. Knox, Hollins and Davis have the talent to give us 800 yards+.
  16. Who are Josh’s top 3 returning receivers? They are Kincaid, Cook and Shakir. Each caught 80%+ of their targets last season. Who do you think are going to be his top targets this year? Cook will lead in targets out of backfield and Shakir and Kincaid will be the top 2 targets overall. Shakir is basically a clone of Diggs. He has the same height, weight, but Shakir is a little faster. Shakir had 17 chunk plays on only 45 targets. He average 15.7 yards a catch for 611 yards. What is going to do with 90 targets as both an inside and outside threat? Kincaid had 90 targets last season and gained 673 yards as a rookie. Mahomes targets Kelce 120-150 times a season. What can Kincaid do with 120 targets? 1000 yards+? Don’t forget that we have to redistribute 300+ targets from last season (Diggs-160, Davis-81, Murray, Hardy & Sherfield-65). Adding 45 to Shakir and 30 to Kincaid, leaves plenty of opportunity for Samuel, Coleman, Knox, Davis etc…. I’m not worried about the offense in the slightest.
  17. Two to watch this coming year are Love and Stroud.
  18. Wow, you guys should read the Sabres' board.
  19. So basically all the best QBs in the NFL are in the AFC.
  20. Nice of Andreessen to step up and give us even more depth at LB.
  21. The article on our injuries in the Athletic gave me some hope on Samuels. Marino is his podcast made a good point about MVS. He compared him to Poona Ford as a guy who made the team, but because of lack of special teams contribution didn’t dress often. My thought on MVS is why keep him as a WR5 if he isn’t going to dress? I think I’d rather give MVS an injury settlement, give Shavers or Hamler a shot, or see if someone they like better comes loose on cutdown day.
  22. Mike, good OP. With Josh on the field everything is different. Defenses essentially are playing one defender down as they have to spy on Josh. The O Line was good against Pit and when Mitch was sacked, Josh would have time to find someone open. He checked down to Cook on one of the plays. I excited by what Coleman can do. Sadly because of injuries we the fans aren’t getting a clear picture of what is happening with the offense in general and Coleman in particular this preseason.
  23. Hard to review safeties when Pittsburgh didn't complete any passes. I couldn’t tell who received worse QB play; Buffalo with Trubisky or either Pitt QB.
  24. There is another way to weather this storm. Shakir moves to the boundary, Kincaid to the slot, Coleman the other boundary and Knox/Morris/Davidson man the TE position. You can also see more Davis and Cook on the field at the same time.
  25. He still plays the outside, but considering Samuel is injured, is having another slot guy a problem?
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